Didn’t expect this – I was resigned to Trump doing well, perhaps winning, and Hillary pushing back the Sanders challenge. As of right now, Cruz has definitely won it on the GOP side while Rubio surged to a very close-behind-Trump third place. Over on the Democrat side, it is razor-close…last I checked, only 0.2% separated Hillary and Sanders.
GOP turnout beat the previous GOP Iowa caucus record by about 50% – and we probably do have to tip our hat a bit to Trump on that, but it is clear that the other candidates had a hand in it, as well. Haven’t been able to find raw numbers on Democrat voters – which makes me suspect the numbers were unspectacular. If that is the case, then what we’ve got is a worn-out Democrat base which is bucking against a coronation of Her Majesty.
Everyone is still playing the “only my guy can win” game – ie, my candidate is the only one who can beat Hillary. Well, first off, the GOP might not square off against Hillary, to begin with, but even if we do, I’m more and more feeling that Hillary can’t win. Sure, she’s not as monstrously unpopular (by approval rating) as Donald Trump, but she’s darned sure more unpopular than any of other GOPer in the race…and her popularity is highly unlikely to improve between now and November. True enough, she and her operatives are nasty people and will use every dirty trick in the book against whomever the GOP nominates, but I don’t think that will work…not least because the American people may be growing tired of Democrat nastiness in the service of raw power.
At any rate, I’m highly encouraged by tonight. We’ll see how it goes to November…
I’m glad I won’t be around to see a world led by these people.
Yesterday morning on his radio show, Glenn Beck and his sidekicks were going over all the various polls and turnout projections. The general consensus was that the higher the turnout, the more favorable it was for Trump. The numbers were all over the place, but, IIRC, there was one that showed Cruz winning by 4 or 5 points and Rubio and Trump virtually tied for 2nd. Those folks ought to get a gold star. Interestingly, in the last interview I saw with Rand Paul he predicted he’d beat over half the field, and with only 4%, he did. A few of those below him with 1 or 2% will probably hang on until New Hampshire, but I expect to see a mass exodus after that. I still think this is shaping up to be one of, if not the most defining races in the last century.
I’m backing Cruz, now – and I’ll caucus for him out here in Nevada on February 23rd. The Donks do their bit out here same day as the SC primary, we follow 3 days later, so for the GOP we’re the 4th contest. Hope we’re responsible for winnowing the field to a two-candidate race.
How close is it in Iowa between Clinton and Sanders?
Aaron Levie ✔ @levie
Order of operations to determining Iowa winners:
1. Tallied votes
2. Coin toss
3. Rock paper scissors
4. Staring contest
1:39 AM – 2 Feb 2016
313 313 Retweets 431 431 likes
Love the coin-toss stuff…at the end of the day, Hillary blew a 50 point lead and had to settle for a coin toss.
Even worse. One year ago, Marist Poll, Hillary 68%, Bernie Sanders 7%.
In a classic YCMTSU moment, Sanders is hinting at …… wait for it ……. voter fraud!
90 precincts missing, he says. Need a recount, he says.
If only I could draw, I would come up with a Dem donkey biting its own self in the ass. This is just too funny. The party that has won vast power thanks to voter fraud has its own new hero stung by voter fraud.
Hey, Bernie, you are running against a Clinton. What did you expect?
The Republican rule for the caucus is a written, secret, ballot. For the Dems, it is the old traditional way of standing with your choice to be counted. So Bernie is SOL on a recount, unless he is talking about math (how the votes were added).
It is just harder to rig an Iowa-style caucus. No one coming in a day or so late with a trunk full of ballots which just happen, coincidentally of course, to represent a 90% or so preference for the Dem candidate though other precincts had a much closer race and which just happen, coincidentally of course, to be just a few votes more than the number the Dem needed to win. (Enter Senator Franken.) Missing tallies might be another thing. The thing is, in a system where someone goes around and counts those standing for each candidate, those totals are usually announced, and there are a lot of people who remember what they were, but not having those totals included in the final count might be enough in such a close race to make a difference.
Now Trumps accusing Cruz of voter fraud. Further proof he’s a Democrat. They just can’t help themselves you know. If they do it the other guy’s doing it too. Right?
Yes, BS (and the rest of the leftist noobs) is supposed to believe that Hillary won the precincts decided on a coin toss. She won all six that used this method. That is she “won” all six with a coin toss each time. That is 64:1 odds that would happen! What do you expect? The Clintons are just that lucky! The woman was able to turn a $10,000 investment in cattle futures into over $100,000! Chelsea received a $600K job right out of college on her merits alone! Bill was just a poor victim of a starried-eyed intern! They are just that lucky, nothing to see here!
So, can we finally put all this Trump talk to bed now? Please?
Why? Why does it bother you? As long as Trump claims to be in the race, and until he backs off his threat to undermine the Republican candidate by running as a third party candidate, he is up for commentary just as anyone else is.
I don’t know if you want talk about Trump to end because you are just tired of hearing about him, or because you like him and are tired of seeing his defects discussed, or what. But as long as Donald, hissownself, continues to put himself in the spotlight and try to have some impact on the race, he is going to be discussed.
I would prefer to have him disappear, as much as he can, by going back to “reality” TV and hustling various schemes and building ostentatious monuments to himself.
Well, look, I meant that half-jokingly. Obviously we should talk about everything under the sun.
As I’ve mentioned before, I find it interesting to watch this group start from “Trump, what a joke” to “Anyone but Trump” to “Hey, check out this guy, Trump” to “That man gets my vote!” Of course not everyone in this group, but several members follow that path.
Personally, I don’t think Trump would ever stand a chance so I’ve been pretty detached through the discussion. But now everyone can see Trump ain’t getting elected in Flyover USA, and you can’t win a general election without ’em.
Talk about whatever you want but really, enough Trump, right?
I think we only had one person here leaning Trump’s way – the rest of us were just resigned to voting for him against Hillary, if that is what it took to keep her out of office.
But, also, Trump isn’t done, yet – not by a long sight. He is likely to win NH and if he also wins in SC, then the GOP nominating process may well stretch into April and May.
Bob, in one way I agree with you. I don’t like talking about Trump. I have always found him crass and distasteful, and never could take any of his grandstanding about running for the presidency seriously. A friend compared him to Jesse Ventura, but I think Jesse has more class. As proof that I am a cockeyed optimist, I just never thought ANYONE could take him seriously.
It wasn’t until I realized that some people, evidently quite a few people, WERE taking him seriously that I started to do a little research on him. I try to be fair, so I thought maybe I was missing something, some quality of, well, quality that had escaped me so far. And what I found in my research was downright depressing.
Not what I found out about HIM, necessarily, but that so many people just didn’t care. It was Clinton Blindness, with an R after its name. A newly minted R, but still. The same people who insisted, during Zippergate, that character DOES matter, that a man who will lie to his wife will lie to anyone, were suddenly all agog over and ready to cast their vote for a serial adulterer, thrice married, huckster with a sordid history of federal investigations into various schemes, fraud, racial discrimination, and so on. One of his schemes was described as a pyramid scheme. When Madoff did it, it was terrible, but when Donald did it, well, that was just “pragmatic” and what you have to do if you are the kind of guy who “gets things done”.
So I see talking about Donald Trump as a distasteful duty until he finally stops sabotaging the Republican presidential race and threatening to tank it for good by running as an independent.
Trump—the Hamas tank of the GOP
Of course Trump will win New Hampshire, it is his own backyard. But he will not win Ohio. Or Indiana. Or Kansas. Or etc.
Trump. cannot. win.
Bob, I want very much for you to be right.
Rand Paul the latest to drop out of the race.
Very sad. A good man.
I agree. I like and admire Rand Paul. I don’t agree with him 100% but I think he is sincere and honest and says what he says because he believes it, not because he is pandering for votes. That means a lot to me even when I have a different point of view.
Change of topic, what do you guys think of the Cruz memo released by the-campaign-I-will-not-mention?
(because earlier in the thread I said I’d had enough of him…yeah, I’m not terribly far-sighted in my commentary)
I always considered Cruz honorable but that memo looks kinda dirty-tricksy.
Yeah, on the surface it did have that Dirty Tricks air about it. But his explanation made sense. He said that Carson’s people put out a memo that Carson would not be attending some functions he had already committed to because he was going back home to Florida. Cruz’s people took this as a statement that he was dropping out of the race and wanted to be the first of the other candidates to make a pitch for Carson’s voters.
When Carson made a stink about it, long before Trump got into it, Cruz apologized. I saw the email string and Carson’s people did not make it clear that he was just going home to change clothes. I have to agree with Glenn Beck here, that isn’t a very convincing story. Anyway, for whatever reason Carson did go to Florida, where he lives, right before the caucus, and his people did say he was going to do that, and they were not clear about why he was going. I don’t blame Cruz’s people for wanting to harvest Carson votes if he was dropping out.
But then Carson did a shifty thing, to my mind. He issued a statement which he prefaced with what I thought was a self-serving comment that “as a Christian” he had to accept Cruz’s apology—-BUT he then went on and made it clear he didn’t really accept it after all. I lost some respect for Carson on that.. It was like he thought he had to prop up his Christian cred after the speeches by Cruz and Rubio, and the phrasing had a sour tinge to it, a resentful air of “I don’t want to, but AS A CHRISTIAN I guess I have to say I do”.
Anyway, after this kerfluffle with Cruz and Carson, Trump finally found what he seems to think is a way to ‘splain why he didn’t win after all, being such a winner and all. And as could be predicted, IT WAS NOT HIS FAULT! Cruz refers to his reaction as a Trumpertantrum, which I think is pretty funny. He also reveals his utter cluelessness about the process. He wants a “do over”? Just how would that work, Donald? We just stop the clock on all the other races, go back to some time you find convenient (no doubt before the debate so he can do that over, too) and then rerun the event? Get everyone to re-caucus?
I’d love to try. Dragging Iowans through that again, after his wall kicking hissy fit, he would be lucky to get 2.4 %. Don’t overlook that decimal point.
Eric Erikson’s take on the Carson thing:
“Let us lay out the timeline of the Ted Cruz email that has Ben Carson so upset. Sixteen minutes before the caucuses began in Iowa, CNN reported that Ben Carson was packing up and going back to Florida after Iowa. Go look at the video. It has a countdown clock. They were sixteen minutes away from the caucuses starting when the Carson news broke that he was returning to Florida.
As Ben Shapiro notes,
Jake Tapper of CNN stated, “It’s very unusual, to announce that you’re going home to rest for a few days, not going on to the next site.” Dana Bash agreed, “Very unusual…Look, if you want to be president of the United States, you don’t go home to Florida. That’s just bottom line, that’s the end of the story. If you want to signal to your supporters that you’re hungry, that you want them to get out and campaign, you have to get out there too, it’s very unusual.” Tapper reiterated, “Very unusual.” To which Wolf Blitzer said, “Very significant news indeed.” CNN also tweeted the news: “After the #IACaucus, @RealBenCarson plans to take a break from campaigning.”
The Cruz campaign then sent out an email after the CNN report and as the caucuses were starting that Carson was packing up and going home and had a big announcement coming the next week. The Cruz team urged its supporters to use that news to convince the Carson team to switch to Cruz.
Then, after the Cruz email started circulating, the Carson camp announced Carson was staying in. It was an hour after the caucuses had started that the press started reporting Carson’s clarification.
Yes, the Cruz deputy who sent out the email added the “big announcement” part and that was nowhere to be found in the press. But yes, the Carson camp did send out word that he was going home to Florida and did so before the caucuses started then took almost an hour to turn things around. Were they not amateurs they should have known precisely how that would be received by everyone.
The Cruz campaign rapidly processed the news from CNN, took action to persuade Carson’s voters, and won. The Carson campaign was really slow to respond to the news, created the news themselves, and should be upset with their own team, not Ted Cruz’s team.
Then, of course, there is the Ted Cruz apology. Cruz was already inside a caucus room preparing to speak when the email from his campaign went out. He did not sign off on the campaign email. He apologized to Carson and told Carson that had he known, Cruz would not have authorized that email. Carson’s response was to demand someone be disciplined or fired, but accepted the apology. When you accept an apology, you don’t get to dictate terms.
The Carson camp can be as angry as it wants, but it needs to suck it up. They’re the ones who generated national headlines that Carson was going back to Florida. They are the ones who should have known how the media would read such a story. That they did not is another reflection of a campaign stuck in amateur hour. Politics ain’t beanbag and Cruz’s campaign operates at a faster pace than Carson’s, whose campaign moves even slower than Carson speaks.
Look, I’m not born yesterday. All politicians do politician-y things and they are vying for the top political spot, I get it.
Still, a bummer.
Yeah, unfortunate and clumsy. But there are a lot of moving parts in a campaign, especially within minutes of the caucus starting.
BREAKING NEWS!! Jim Gilmore has surged all the way from 17th in the polls to 9th.
I’ve been a Gilmore backer since before it was cool to be a Gilmore backer. I was just waiting for the rest of you losers to catch on.
(who the f is Jim Gilmore, again?)
Check to see if he made the cut in the highlights of the Republican debate tape, on after this one.
Who prefers He Who Shall Not Be Named to Cruz? Jimmah does. And he tells you why.
Stupid me, I thought getting attacked by a rabbit would be Carter’s greatest embarrasment and he goes and choose Voldemort.
You know, Bob, you’re a funny guy.
I have to admit, I was impressed by Jimmah’s use of the word “malleable”. Twice, so it wasn’t an accident.
Well, he’d know about that word, wouldn’t he?
People who work behind the scenes, the kingmakers as it were, prefer candidates who are malleable, but I was a little surprised to hear Carter use that word.
When you have watched half the country vote to REELECT someone like Obama, who came right out and campaigned on a promise to “fundamentally transform” this country and who has proceeded to do so, including transforming our prior success in race relations into a simmering cauldron of racial resentment and tension and hatred, when your own party is no longer trying to pretend it is not socialist and is heartily behind an avowed socialist, you don’t have to pull your punches any more. You can come right out and say what you think.
Think of Obama as a test for America—and we failed. Now that we, as a country, have twice sent the message that we are too stupid to know what’s going on or too lazy to care, we’ve told the Radical Left the lanes are open, the lights are all green, and there are no cops and only a couple of minor speed bumps in their way.
There is something that has not been said, about this surge of radical Leftism in our country. I have no doubt that it will be met with the same screeching denials and scornful insults that the description of Obama as a socialist stirred up. (Remember that? It was within the last few years, folks, when the use of the word “socialist” applied to Obama was enough to get Libs howling from coast to coast.) Within those few short years the term is not only acceptable but is winning over millions of potential voters who openly WANT a declared socialist president.
The next thing that will generate such a concentrated attack is the observation that International Leftism is behind this new American surge to the edge of the cliff. Make no mistake about it, there is an international Leftist movement that has been working around the globe, and the seeds it planted so long ago in this country are growing in the fertile soil of the American Democrat Party. The last true hero of the American Democrat Party was JFK (the real one, not J F’n K) and he was ardently anti-socialist. As so many have pointed out over the years (to even more howling from the Lefty mouthpieces who pollute the blogs and other media) the actual political philosophy and policies of JFK were far FAR closer to those of George W. Bush than to Barack Obama.
It has taken this country only about three generations to slide from socialist as a pejorative to socialist as a rallying cry. Ol’ Jimmah might not be the smartest peanut in the bowl, but he can recognize the winds of change (as in “Hope and Change”, Dem voters) and knows he can come right out and say what had only been whispered behind red curtains in the past.