So, the Mrs and a good friend went to early vote here; two entirely different locations. No biggie – it’s still nearly 3 weeks before election day, but might as well get it out of the way. It isn’t out of the way – they both came across hour-long lines to vote. Just to put it into perspective here, folks: this was on a balmy Saturday afternoon…and people were lined up to vote.
Why line up to vote? There’s plenty of time to vote – all the way until November 8th. Unless you’re leaving town tomorrow and won’t be back until the 9th, why bother if there’s any wait, at all? But people were bothering. Lots of them. Who are they voting for? No idea, of course. Now, ask yourself, who is more likely to generate enough excitement to convince someone to wait in line on a beautiful Saturday afternoon for an hour to vote? You can make your own guesses. I’ve made mine. We’ll all see on November 8th.
Almost everyone is in a bubble this year. Trumpsters. HillBots. Beltway Conservatives. I don’t think anyone really knows what is going on – but they keep yammering on as if they do. I have decided to come through to November 9th with the certainty of no egg on my face. It’s an easy trick to do – all you have to do is admit ignorance. I’ve seen the predictions for a Hillary Landslide and a Trump Landslide and everything in between. But no one really knows. It isn’t a matter of “the polls may be wrong” – given that we have polls showing everything from a 12 point Hillary lead to a 2 point Trump lead, at least some of the polls are definitely wrong. I’ve seen State polls come out within a day of each other showing 180 degree difference in the direction of the race. Supposedly, the pollsters are calling the same population and should generally come up with the same result – but, they aren’t. The problem, I think, is that the electorate is in flux…rich people who normally vote GOP are flooding into Democrat ranks, while working class people who normally vote Democrat are on fire for Trump…and the joker in the deck is rare- and never-voters. Some indicators are out there that the number of Independents in some Battle Ground States have massively grown in numbers. Grown in numbers to vote for Hillary or Trump? No one can possibly know.
I refuse the bubble. I’ve even started closely following some Progressive Twitter accounts – they are often more interesting than the Conservative accounts this year because all too often those accounts are just yelling at each other over Trump. The depth of Progressive dislike of Hillary, by the way, is astonishing. I do expect them to pull the lever for Hillary because Trump, for most of them, is very much a bridge too far…but you just watch what happens in 2017 if Hillary does win…there’s going to be a Progressive revolt in the Democrat ranks because Hillary, especially if she has a GOP Congress, won’t be able to bring about the sort of Progressive policies they are demanding. The sort of revolt we’ve seen against the GOP leadership is brewing now on the left against the Democrat leadership. And more power to them – I don’t see why they should continually put up with Democrats who talk a great game of bashing the banks and then take $250,000.00 speaking fees from them.
In the United States and around the world, the post-WWII consensus is crumbling. As long as people felt financially secure, all was well – but now people don’t feel all that secure, and so all bets are off. Trump might not duplicate the Bexit result, but the fact that he’s even in the mix shows that American politics isn’t what is used to be. He’s said a dozen thing which, had anyone said them even 4 years ago, would result in him being down 20 points in the RCP averages by now. Even if the reality is a 6 point Hillary lead as RCP indicates, then that shows how close to the edge of destruction the Establishment is. They might well drag granny across the finish line this year, but it will be at the cost of losing the last of their credibility with the people…and that is right and left. And if the average folks of the left and right ever figure out that, ultimately, their problem is the same group of people, then look out.
Unlike many who appear to be in agony over this election, I’m not. I’m quite happy and content. I’m going to vote and then just see what happens. No matter what the result, you won’t see my shocked face. You will see my happy face if Hillary loses – but that will mostly be because of the sweet satisfaction of seeing that grifter couple brought low. But if Hillary wins, you won’t see my sad face – I’m too familiar with history to see anything but destruction ahead for the people who would make a Hillary victory. They don’t see it, of course – some how or another they expect that this fake money, debt-ridden, low-growth economy can just keep going, and that no matter how nauseatingly corrupt they are, they’ll never be turned out. The Bourbons thought that, too.
The votes are there to turn them out, right now. It’s just a question of when they will coalesce to do so. This year? 2020? 2024? Eventually, it will happen. One thing that is very clear to me is that both Trumpsters and BLM have genuine reasons for complaint. Both of them miss some very important things, and that’s a pity. But the bottom line is that the system sucks for poor and working class people – BLMers are still looking to the Progressives who created the problems, while the Trumpsters are going after a man who talks the talk, but no one has any idea if he’ll walk the walk. It is forgotten these days that Reagan won by cobbling together a coalition of Conservatives and Populists against the GOP Establishment for the primaries and then the overall Establishment for the general election. Since Reagan, however, Conservatism has tried to step away from the people…to argue things out on issues, rather than on underlying philosophy. This has led Conservatism to be a bizarre defense of low corporate taxes while the people lose their jobs and homes and the Constitution is steadily shredded. Someone is eventually going to figure out how to properly tap into the frustrations out there and build a winning coalition. Trump still has his chance to do it – but if he doesn’t, you just watch Rubio or Rand Paul or some such do it. People expecting Rubio to slam Trumpsters and become Romney 3.0 for 2020 are simply not paying attention. There’s a reason for his refusal to break with Trump even as he cruises to a now-easy re-election. The reason is that he’s smart – he knows that if he ever wants to enter the White House (and I believe he does, very much) then he’s going to need the Trumpsters…meaning, he’s going to need some of those angry poor and working class people who have flocked to Trump’s standard this year. And if that means shedding a few traditional Conservatives on the side, he’ll do it.
We’ll all know soon enough how this year goes. I’ll end by saying that if we Conservatives want to be relevant then the time is not right for purges, but for figuring out how to ride the wave of political re-alignment.