More Than Likely, Trump Has Already Won

I keep in touch with some of the Experts on Twitter…not the really famous ones because, well, they’re all insane. But, still, Experts who are sure that Trump is doomed…all their talk these days is already post-mortem: how did Trump lose; what comes after, blah, blah, blah. Every now and again I point out, in a short comment, that Trump is going to win. I never get a response to such comments.

What amazes me is how sure they are – and, hey, maybe they’re right? But they’ll only be right by accident. They have their charts and graphs and polls…and it is all, in my view, quite meaningless. I checked the Real Clear Politics average of polls before election day, 2016: of the eleven polls used, ten showed a Hillary win…some by a solid margin. Now, the election was just about a tie…Trump won big in the Electoral College and Hillary, via California and New York City, eked out a popular vote win. The bottom line is that it was anyone’s race…a bit of change here or there, and the result would have been different. Given this, a series of eleven polls, done honestly, would have shown four or five with Trump in the lead. There’s just no two ways about it: a poll of the same population using roughly the same criteria shouldn’t come out very different from any other poll. Ten of eleven for Hillary. Either just stupendous coincidence…or deliberate falsehood.

I go with “deliberate falsehood”. And I can already hear the objection: “they wouldn’t all lie.” Yes, they darned well would, and do. Do you think they care about their credibility? Does anyone in the Ruling Class? These guys brazenly lie about everything…but they’re going to be straight shooters with their polls? Give me a break.

This is especially true when you look back to earlier in 2016 when they all had Hillary up like 10-12 points. Rely on it, guys: millions upon millions of people did not change their mind about Hillary between July and November 2016. She was an entirely known quantity. Everyone had already made up their minds about her the moment she announced. Her vote total was always pretty much baked in – the only question of 2016 was whether any GOPer would either outpace her vote or, as Trump did, flip enough in the crucial States to take it all. And anyone with real data knew how the election was going very far in advance: it really surprised no one in the know. Remember: she cancelled her fireworks display. She knew. Or at least her team knew: they might have kept it from her. What will happen on November 3rd of this year is also pretty much baked in. Outside something stupendous happening, people already know Joe Biden and Donald Trump and have made up their minds about them. Trump has either already lost, or already won.

I think he’s already won: and it’ll get huge amount of pushback if you mention it to the Experts, but the tale is in the primary vote. There’s no way that was by accident…that, as I said before, was a test-run of Trump’s November turnout machine..and he’s turning out people in droves, including many who never or rarely vote. These are people who will not change their mind and vote for Biden all of a sudden. In my view, what you see in political reporting is just noise…partly just to get you to watch or click, but mostly just trying to mask reality in the hope that something, anything, will turn up to derail Trump.

This should really surprise no one: but, it does and will. Mostly because the Experts, almost to a man and woman, still view Trump as entirely illegitimate. They then work back from there to find reasons to justify their notion. It becomes an endless feedback loop of false data reinforcing itself. Trump is the President; the power of incumbancy is massive. Trump has a gigantic money supply; vastly more than he had in 2016 and a virtually unlimited ability to raise more as needed. Trump has a loyal base of voters who support him, in contrast to Biden’s voters who are almost entirely about voting against Trump. The Democrat base is going insane and now they are percolating up with demands to remove Mount Rushmore. I mean, seriously: these people are freaking nuts. And the more nuts they get, the more fearful average Americans get. Gun sales are setting records…and I suspect that a lot of people who bought guns were not part of Trump’s core support, which is already largely armed. No, this is suburban wine moms and their husbands fearful that a mob is going to loot their house. Most will still vote Democrat…but I bet some millions don’t. They either stay home or very quietly pull the lever for Trump.

And we’ll see how it all comes out. Personally, I expect to be sitting here on November 3rd and watching Florida called for Trump at about 8:30 pm Eastern, with the MSMers holding off on calling Pennsylvania as they wait for the Biden campaign to concede. I could be wrong but I don’t think I am.

7 thoughts on “More Than Likely, Trump Has Already Won

  1. jdge1 July 4, 2020 / 12:27 am

    My question isn’t whether Trump will win, but will conservatives control the house and senate? Will state legislatures and governors, particularly in blue state switch or become stronger conservatives? Will Trump have enough REAL support to bring this country (and others by default) back to some level of sense. If trump wins the Presidency but the right fails to win both houses of congress, but especially the senate, at least the first half of Trump’s 2nd term will as difficult as his first term and America will be worse off for it.

    It seems the support for Trump is growing stronger by the day and much of that support is coming from people that haven’t voted or voted republican in quite some time, if ever. I just hope that support transitions to all areas of elected officials. I hope that people return to some level of sanity. I hope that we as a nation return to God. The left is making their mark on corruption, lies, and destruction of American values. Our great nation, in spite of her flaws, has been blessed beyond any other nation and has seen the greatest increase in personal wealth and freedom of all nations from all times. This election beyond any other in my time is truly the choice between good and evil, even if many people don’t see or understand that.

    • Amazona July 4, 2020 / 12:59 am

      I think the national Congress and the state houses are ours to win, if we can put together a coherent strategy and stick to it. For years I have been thinking the RNC should be coordinating all state elections. When Obamacare passed I thought the RNC should mount a nationwide campaign targeting every single Dem who voted for it with the sample message: “Did (blank) vote for a bill without even reading it? FIRE HIM!” The average guy out there had no idea his elected representatives in the House and Senate just rubber-stamped the bill without reading it, and it seemed to me this was the kind of thing anyone could understand and agree with —-do your freaking job! The height of irresponsibility is to pass a bill without even reading it, but we barely squeaked out an objection, and certainly not in any loud and organized way.

      I find it hard to believe that all the Dems who are groveling at the feet of this Marxist coup effort can be reelected. Surely at least some of them will be held accountable. So yes, I think there is a good chance that the GOP can retake a lot of lost seats and pick up some they have never had. I just don’t see condoning rioting and property destruction and lawlessness as a winning strategy.

      If I had the money I would run full page ads in several papers around the country and hire someone to get my message out online. That would be a question to be asked by the shareholders of —–and name the companies that have donated to BLM. The question would be: “Do these CEOs really support an admittedly Marxist movement based on the strategy of violent overthrow of our government, or are they just too stupid to realize there are other organizations they can support that actually do good things for the black community?” And then list several programs that do help black people, including scholarship programs, job training programs, etc. Call these CEOs out, by name, for financing subversion, and ask why we should trust them enough to invest in their companies.

      The Left has had movements to halt investments in companies doing business in South Africa and Israel—why not do the same thing here regarding companies that not only help fund subversion but openly brag about their contributions to BLM?

      • Amazona July 4, 2020 / 1:08 am

        I do think Trump has to tread lightly when it comes to calling out Joe Biden’s failing mental acuity. He can easily be seen as a bully, and ridiculing a tragic disease that affects so many families. I think Joe will do a good enough job of this on his own, and Trump should back off from Sleepy Joe and so on. I’d stay away from attack politics in general, and offer the nation an alternative to All Hate All The Time, which is what they will get from the Left. Between the hate ads and the riots and the vile rhetoric from the Left, I think the Right should offer more of a cheerful optimism.

        That’s not to say ignore the obvious—–I’d love to see a flurry of cheap 15-second TV spots featuring different photos of riots and burning buildings with the statement “This is what you get when you elect Democrats” and so on. But I think Reagan had the right idea with his “Morning in America theme.

  2. jdge1 July 4, 2020 / 4:15 pm

    One of Hitlers greatest strengths were his spying eyes from citizens who “reported” on other people. That keep most everyone in fear, on edge and largely suffocated a collaborated resistance. Today, the left is attempting the same ploy – report on anyone not wearing a mask, or violating stay at home orders, or expose, flag & censor any Trump followers especially on social media. It’s all the same tactic meant for the same purpose of squashing the opposition. So, what does the “opposition” (those on the right) do? Far too many try to play the appeasement game, which will really do nothing more than provide the left with greater standing ground to push further. And what many of the easily duped on the left fail to realize is, they too are expendable pawns only meant to keep the elites on top. There is no compromise with the far left. Like Islam, they want to demolish the opposition or subject them to slave status. Anyone who believes differently hasn’t been watching very close or has already drank the Kool-Aid.

    The silent majority cannot be silent anymore. They must be the voice of truth. This coming election will say more about the state of the nation than anything we see in the lying media. Are people more concerns about basic personal freedoms and real justice -or- will they succumb to the table scraps thrown their way, dwelling in a subsistence living for the sake of not having to actually earn their keep?

    • Amazona July 5, 2020 / 10:40 am

      I have highly recommended a German movie called The Lives Of Others. As far as I can tell, no one has watched it, no doubt because it is in German with subtitles. I get that. We had a private screening of the movie at an espionage conference I attended in Berlin last year and I had the same response when I learned what we were going to watch. But it was riveting, and very easy to watch even with the subtitles. The movie won an Academy Award a few years ago for Best Foreign Film, which surprised me because it is so harsh and critical of the Left’s heavy-handed tyranny in East Berlin before the fall of the Wall.

      The basic story line is that a Stasi (East German secret police) officer, for personal reasons, sets up surveillance of a man by bugging his apartment, hoping to find something to use against him. Then I got on a plane a few days later and came home to a country where the highest law enforcement agency in the country had been bugging associates of a man, trying to find something to use against him.

      The thing about seeing this played out in a movie is the mounting tension as the utter wrongness of this sinks in. I don’t think an abstract awareness of the dangers of this kind of abuse of power really carries enough emotional impact for most people to register the true significance. Being drawn into the situation made it very frightening, and the inevitable reaction is “Wow—they could do this to me, too.” (If were running the RNC I would dump a few million dollars into putting this film in theaters around the country and charging $2.00 a ticket–because people don’t respect stuff that is free. I would get it out there. I would pay whatever it would cost to run it on a couple of nights on network TV. The Academy Award would give it cover.)

      And that is the point. They can do it to you, they can do it to me, they can do it to anyone, and the only defense we have is a government dedicated to personal liberty and the Constitution. Because where can you go when it is the government spying on you?

      In a society with a true Free Press, you can go to the media to at least get your story out there. In an increasingly dystopian society where the “press” is really just a participating arm of the oppressor, there are few safeguards for the public.

      Today, people who speak out against the Left and its agendas are merely “canceled”, though there are increasing examples of violent retribution. In East Germany, those who spoke out against the Left, even mildly, were sent to a prison built to house, torment and torture those guilty of Wrongthink. I toured the prison, I heard the stories of how people were treated when they were accused (never mind if they were guilty) of having the “wrong” ideas. If the rioters and their government enablers and supporters gain power, does anyone think this would never happen here?

  3. jdge1 July 4, 2020 / 4:49 pm

    The BLM is just another marxist / communist organization attempting to garner support from a group of people who are not served at all by the organization, but who uses a name that suggest it does. Their tools?

    Blame (always someone or something else)
    Victimhood mentality
    Entitlement mentality

    Rinse/ repeat.

    Engaging in extortion & racketeering (otherwise known as criminal activity) is why they never have any intention of rational discussion, just demands. They realized they get far more traction from false accusations and violence. That’s why EVERYTHING is labeled racist and must be altered, opposed or destroyed. Someone will find some obscure never heard of before reason, of something they relate to black oppression (note – not all minorities need apply) as a reason to suggest legitimate grievance where none really exists. The subject matter is immaterial, just the perceived injustice that might have happened from a long ago history that must now be repaid to a people who were not involved by a people who were also not involved. See how liberal logic works?

    Interesting stat I read today.
    ” The Bureau of Justice Statistics released its 2018 survey of criminal victimization where there were 593,598 interracial violent victimizations (excluding homicide) between blacks and whites, including white-on-black and black-on-white attacks. Blacks committed 537,204 of those interracial felonies or 90 percent, and whites committed 56,394 of them or less than 10 percent.”

    The msm has flooded their outlets with massive false information to the point where logic no longer exists and too many people accept as truth, instead of simple analysis and questioning the info presented as fact. Amazona has given many such examples, several in her recent posts.

    Can you imagine our founding fathers uttering a statement like many modern leftist politicians do; “I personally oppose x but…” then ridiculously use that stance as a reason to vote for unconstitutional overreach? What an utter lack of personal conviction, other than to sidestep, appear to appease and remain in a position of power. The deep state must be removed from any position of authority and in many cases stripped of any goods obtained thru their illegal activity and sent to jail. If the law and/or those in charge won’t remove the wicked, then we must. I pray this coming election is a good start.

    • Amazona July 4, 2020 / 5:54 pm

      An American woman from Lebanon called Joe Pags this morning and was talking about how quickly her country lost its history and identity once the Left started to gain power, An interesting observation was the element of changing names, to erase history and establish a new “history” and narrative. We are certainly seeing that happening here.

      A question: What is happening to the statues that are torn down? I hope they are in some huge warehouse somewhere, where they are being lovingly restored, so one day we can start the process of putting them back where they belong, with appropriate ceremonies of dignity and respect for what each represents.

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