I keep in touch with some of the Experts on Twitter…not the really famous ones because, well, they’re all insane. But, still, Experts who are sure that Trump is doomed…all their talk these days is already post-mortem: how did Trump lose; what comes after, blah, blah, blah. Every now and again I point out, in a short comment, that Trump is going to win. I never get a response to such comments.
What amazes me is how sure they are – and, hey, maybe they’re right? But they’ll only be right by accident. They have their charts and graphs and polls…and it is all, in my view, quite meaningless. I checked the Real Clear Politics average of polls before election day, 2016: of the eleven polls used, ten showed a Hillary win…some by a solid margin. Now, the election was just about a tie…Trump won big in the Electoral College and Hillary, via California and New York City, eked out a popular vote win. The bottom line is that it was anyone’s race…a bit of change here or there, and the result would have been different. Given this, a series of eleven polls, done honestly, would have shown four or five with Trump in the lead. There’s just no two ways about it: a poll of the same population using roughly the same criteria shouldn’t come out very different from any other poll. Ten of eleven for Hillary. Either just stupendous coincidence…or deliberate falsehood.
I go with “deliberate falsehood”. And I can already hear the objection: “they wouldn’t all lie.” Yes, they darned well would, and do. Do you think they care about their credibility? Does anyone in the Ruling Class? These guys brazenly lie about everything…but they’re going to be straight shooters with their polls? Give me a break.
This is especially true when you look back to earlier in 2016 when they all had Hillary up like 10-12 points. Rely on it, guys: millions upon millions of people did not change their mind about Hillary between July and November 2016. She was an entirely known quantity. Everyone had already made up their minds about her the moment she announced. Her vote total was always pretty much baked in – the only question of 2016 was whether any GOPer would either outpace her vote or, as Trump did, flip enough in the crucial States to take it all. And anyone with real data knew how the election was going very far in advance: it really surprised no one in the know. Remember: she cancelled her fireworks display. She knew. Or at least her team knew: they might have kept it from her. What will happen on November 3rd of this year is also pretty much baked in. Outside something stupendous happening, people already know Joe Biden and Donald Trump and have made up their minds about them. Trump has either already lost, or already won.
I think he’s already won: and it’ll get huge amount of pushback if you mention it to the Experts, but the tale is in the primary vote. There’s no way that was by accident…that, as I said before, was a test-run of Trump’s November turnout machine..and he’s turning out people in droves, including many who never or rarely vote. These are people who will not change their mind and vote for Biden all of a sudden. In my view, what you see in political reporting is just noise…partly just to get you to watch or click, but mostly just trying to mask reality in the hope that something, anything, will turn up to derail Trump.
This should really surprise no one: but, it does and will. Mostly because the Experts, almost to a man and woman, still view Trump as entirely illegitimate. They then work back from there to find reasons to justify their notion. It becomes an endless feedback loop of false data reinforcing itself. Trump is the President; the power of incumbancy is massive. Trump has a gigantic money supply; vastly more than he had in 2016 and a virtually unlimited ability to raise more as needed. Trump has a loyal base of voters who support him, in contrast to Biden’s voters who are almost entirely about voting against Trump. The Democrat base is going insane and now they are percolating up with demands to remove Mount Rushmore. I mean, seriously: these people are freaking nuts. And the more nuts they get, the more fearful average Americans get. Gun sales are setting records…and I suspect that a lot of people who bought guns were not part of Trump’s core support, which is already largely armed. No, this is suburban wine moms and their husbands fearful that a mob is going to loot their house. Most will still vote Democrat…but I bet some millions don’t. They either stay home or very quietly pull the lever for Trump.
And we’ll see how it all comes out. Personally, I expect to be sitting here on November 3rd and watching Florida called for Trump at about 8:30 pm Eastern, with the MSMers holding off on calling Pennsylvania as they wait for the Biden campaign to concede. I could be wrong but I don’t think I am.