And all through the House, Democrat Committee chairs were having their stuff boxed up.
How will it go tomorrow?
I think well. At least to the point where we win the House and Senate. I can’t see a path for the Democrats to get above 49 Senators after all is said and done and even 48 is a big stretch requiring a pretty darned good Democrat election day turnout. The House, as I’ve said all along, is a foregone conclusion – the GOP only needs a net of 5, after all. If Democrats run massively ahead of Pudding Brain’s approval, they’ll still lose 15 to 20 in the House.
Governorships? Looks like PA will stay Democrat and that is really too bad (there are some rays of hope in that response bias among GOP voters especially in rural PA is so low that the polls – even the good ones – are missing a huge bloc of GOP voters: I would like this to be true, but I’m not counting on it). New York looks definitely within reach for the GOP – still have to say it is Tilt Democrat but, really, that Democrats are in a last-ditch defense of the NY Governorship is pretty much the tale of 2022. Things are bad – and they are worse in Blue areas than Red. There’s even a shot that a sorta-GOPer could win the Los Angeles mayor’s race. I do believe we’ll win NV and hold AZ (perhaps by a comfortable margin) while FL and GA have long been out of reach for the Democrats. On the whole, I expect us to do well at the governor level and consequently well in State legislative races (in NC looks like we’ll take the State Supreme Court and, once and for all, we’ll be able to draw district lines in that State as we see fit). Still also have some hope for us in MI and I’m very confident we’ll prevail in WI.
What is all comes down to, as in all elections, is who shows up? Democrats are nervously reassuring each other than this time will be different – that the in-Party will buck the President’s approval rating and a surge of Election Day Democrats will turn the tide. Some Democrats are downright insane on this, by the way: predicting a Blue Tsunami! But most just hope to limit the losses and maybe keep a 50/50 Senate on the backs of this Democrat surge. As per usual, anything is possible. But as any Democrat dreams their happy dream of a sudden late Democrat surge, do keep in mind that it could be the other way – we could have a late GOP surge.
The predictions (which mostly run to a 1-2 GOP Senate and 30 House gain) are predicated upon strong but still rather normal GOP mid-term turnout. And if you look deep and ask, you’ll find that just a small increase above that and things start to fall apart for Democrats very fast.
In light of this, I found it interesting that there have been a slew of MSM articles telling Democrats on Election Day to beware of the Red Mirage. The theory here is that a blowout GOP win in FL with, perhaps, Oz and Walker leading early doesn’t mean disaster: Democrats could make up all that in late-counted early votes! This has triggered some gloom-and-doomers to assume the fix is in. Not me. Mostly because I know that while you can fix a Presidential vote by having control of a few cities in key States, doing it nationwide in a mid-term environment is just about impossible. The Democrats will cheat as much as they can, but they simply lack enough control of the process to prevent a GOP wave. Their cheating might save a few marginal seats for them in deep Blue areas, but it won’t stop what’s coming.
So, why write the articles? Simple: it seems highly likely that Florida will be incandescent Red and for about an hour or two it will be the only major thing for anyone to talk about on TV and Social Media. Word gets out of such a stunning win and you risk having a Democrat in, say, Arizona, heading home from work and deciding that since it is all over, might as well pick up Arby’s instead of stand in line for an hour in a lost cause. The articles are an attempt to shore up Democrats in AZ, NV and CA.
And they are fearful of that – a combined GOP larger-than-expected turnout with a Democrat lower-than-expected turnout. If that happens, this is where we not only get the upset wins in NY and MI, but also in PA, WA and NM. This is where the GOP gets 4-5 in the Senate and 40+ in the House. This is where State races give the GOP more power at the State level than they’ve had in a century.
Will that happen? Once again: it is impossible to know. Depends on who shows up. I admit to some butterflies in my stomach but it isn’t fear – it is hope. We might really win this thing. Be nice if we did! But, we also might lose this thing. That would suck. On the other hand, I’m a Christian so I know how the story ends and thus have no real long-term worry here.
Go vote. Unless you’re a Democrat. And then just wait on the results.