A lot of recent polling indicates that whatever momentum Harris was getting after the coup against Biden, it is fading fast. Personally, I don’t think it ever really happened but there are only so many thumbs you can put on the scale before your poll becomes such garbage that you lose credibility entirely…there was a gap of at least several days in polling before the most recent releases and my guess on that is that they were finding what was, in the end, found: even with thumbs on the scale, Trump was at worst holding position to get past 270.
As per usual in all elections, it will be decided by who shows up. Gallup’s most recent party ID poll had the electorate R+6. All of us doubt that – but maybe we shouldn’t. Someone pointed out on X that after months of good polling for Trump GOPers were still dooming and glooming while a week of good polling for Harris got Democrats seriously claiming they’d flip Texas and Utah. We’re just built to be Debbie Downers, aren’t we? We’re so used to losing that we can’t envision winning. Maybe we should start to act like winners? Trump sure seems confident – at the worst of the Kamala-mentum he was out there golfing and nailing it. Any golfer will tell you that if you’re stressed you’ll do poorly. Trump wasn’t stressed in the least.
Keep in mind that public polls are “free” and are therefore designed for a purpose. None of them are agenda-free. Sometimes it is far more subtle than others, but if someone gives you something for free then they want something out of you. Your grandmother can give you a free lunch – everyone else is working an angle. Meanwhile, both parties have pollsters who are crucial in determining which States to spend time and money in. These people don’t mess around. If you’re such a pollster and you steer candidates wrong, you’ll be out of work. Both Team Trump and Team Harris know the state of the race – and they are pouring money into Pennsylvania, especially after Labor Day (oddly, so far Team Trump has reserved about 50% more time in PA than Team Harris – Harris almost certainly can’t get past 270 without PA…so being heavily outspent seems weird…but might also mean that the supposed record-breaking fundraising she did after the coup was just a story; of course, Team Harris might push up their numbers in PA as they see Team Trump do it).
If Gallup is right, or even if its R+2, Harris has an impossible task – there simply won’t be enough votes out there to get to 270…probably not even enough to win the popular vote, even with CA and NY voting for her in droves. R+1 to D+2 means Harris has to draw an inside straight just to get to 270. D+3 its a complete tossup. The polls are mostly predicated upon D+3 to D+5. So, we see lots of polls showing tossup or a slight Harris advantage. And if the electorate is D+5 then, yeah, Trump is going to lose. He simply won’t be able to find enough votes to get past 270. But there is zero indication that the electorate will be worse for Trump than even on party ID – voter registration and primary voting patterns all indicate an electorate more GOP than polling suggests.
Who shows up: that decides it.
And do note that Team Trump is expending efforts to drag low-propensity voters to the polls. These are people who do vote but only in Presidential years and even then not all the time. Lots of polling shows Trump absolutely crushing it with this demographic. Trouble is: they don’t vote all the time. It isn’t an absolute necessity that Trump get these people to show, but if he’s successful in doing so, what in polling today is a tight race becomes a blowout win for Trump. We’ll see if Team Trump’s bet on this pays off.
Harris’ first big policy roll out has been to steal some Trump policies and add a bunch of Communism. You should hear her border ad in Nevada – to listen to it, you’d think she’s a MAGA border hawk. It stops just half an inch before “build the wall”. It is a nauseating lie – if she wins she’ll do nothing to control the border. In fact, it’ll be a signal to let 20 million or more in. But that she’s running the ads shows (a) she’s very weak on the issue and (b) Trump has moved the window on it…just by talking about it over and over and over again. Open borders is simply unpopular. Even pluralities of Democrats favor closing the border. I’ve seen polling where majorities of Latinos favor mass deportations. Trump has won the immigration debate – of course, it only becomes reality if he wins. Anyone else will simply mouth some words and keep the bodies flowing.
But the Communism is the thing – and it is working out badly for Harris. Her program of essentially imposing price controls is being panned even in parts of the Left. Everyone who thinks at all knows it is a bad idea. The inflation is because of the government spending money it doesn’t have. Everyone knows that the only way to get inflation to halt is to dial back government spending while increasing domestic production until rising wealth restores the equilibrium we had in 2019. Her bizarre idea of providing 25 grand to new home buyers is being noticed as the pandering it is – with plenty of comments from current homeowners about how its not exactly fair to shovel cash at some people and not others.
Walz continues to be a drag on Harris – not in polling, but there’s some nonsense in that. But the crucial thing – and the thing least likely to show in general national polling – is how veterans view Walz. Most civilians simply won’t understand how infuriating it is to any veteran to see someone fake their record. Sea stories are fine – appreciated (Old joke: what’s the difference between a sea story and a fairy tale? A fairy tale begins with “once upon a time” while a sea story begins with “no sh*t”). But to lie about actual service is despised. We all honor each other’s service – doesn’t matter where you were assigned; if you showed up and did your job, you’re one of us. Sure, there is extra honor accorded to those who had to really get down into the mud and blood, but no veteran denigrates those who served. All veterans pledged their lives and that’s good enough. But to lie about it – to appropriate valor and suffering not endured – is just disgusting to veterans. And to do it – like Walz – to burnish a resume for political purposes is just beyond the pale. Recent polling in Virginia shows it close – and this after the coup. That is Virginia’s massive veteran population. There are lots of bureaucrats in northern Virginia voting with their paymasters in DC…but tidewater Virginia is packed to the gills with retired Marines and sailors who, I assure you , despise what Walz did. This could have a small but decisive effect on the result.
Meanwhile, JD Vance continues to impress. We all loved how the latest attack on him was someone dredging up a picture of a young Walz apparently down for the count after a bout of youthful drinking. Another showed him goofing off with some girls in the boys room. I don’t know what they were thinking on this one – all it did was make him more relatable. I mean, relatable to anyone who challenged Jose Cuervo to a duel in high school. This, I think, is most of us. But maybe not Liberals? I dunno. Maybe Liberals don’t have fun. Maybe that’s their problem? Anyways, the guy is turning into teflon – and I think he’ll mop the floor with that phony, Walz.
Blogs For Victory 
Kamala came out with a plan to combat “price gauging” yesterday, which just let everyone know that it’s not her plan and she didn’t even write the speech. She doesn’t even know what she reads. Kamala has no intelligence, no charisma, no plan, and no chance. The more you know about Kamala, the less you want to know and American is learning that right now. Trump will cruise to victory.
That “price gauging” thing cracked me up. It’s kind of like Barry’s “corpseman” comment. I get it that they don’t write their own stuff, but wouldn’t you think they would do a run-through to make sure they know what they are saying and how to say it?
Even the Washington Post sees through it.
WaPo is owned by Bezos…who also owns Whole Foods.
I do get the impression that Team Harris is run by some…not very bright people. The story is that Team Obama is managing her campaign but this stuff makes me think that all Team Obama is doing is managing the PR. I remember that Obama was slow to endorse Harris…like they know a loser when they see one and only signed on when nobody could find a credible alternative.
😂😂😂
Hey the Mrs. and I are thinking about having some tacos tonight. What are we suppose to have now? Tuna fish, mayonaise, and pepper??
Put it on white bread. You can still call it a “taco” if you are a Democrat, because that means you can redefine any word to mean anything you want it to mean at any given time, so just call it a “Minnesota taco”. But skip the pepper. Too spicy.
(Have they just given up on the Hispanic vote?)
Or unions telling members to go
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GVH0ClpWcAAaDKF?format=jpg&name=small
But I’ll bet if we were to see video we would be seeing a lot of JOY, and even EXCITEMENT!
I wonder how many of that 109 “crowd” were media people, sent to memorialize the ENTHUSIASM.
The Left has been frantically trying to find some dirt on Vance, and it’s been fun to watch. He fell asleep after drinking too much, about 20-some years ago. And……well, that’s about it.
Or it was, till they finally found the BOMBSHELL that will blow this whole Trump/Vance thing out of the water! And they have it on video, with commentary from an expert.
A retired professional dog walker (stop giggling) has opined that Vance does not hold his dog’s leash properly.
Forget about Stolen Valor, forget about lying to get out of a DUI and driving 40 MPH over the speed limit while drunk, forget about sending military vehicles into residential neighborhoods to have uniformed soldiers shoot at civilians with paintballs to force them back into their houses (from their own front porches!), forget about letting his city burn—Walz at least has not been recorded holding his dog’s leash near the middle instead of at the end.
They’ve been searching for a scandal to equal that of DeSantis once eating pudding with his fingers, and they finally found one.
It is amazing and disgusting – the New Yorker had a piece yesterday wherein they were talking about Vance’s grandparents having some marital problems way back when…and darkly hinting that Vance hid this fact, even though it is apparently in Hillbilly Elegy. “Vance says his grandparents stuck it out, but records indicate they filed for divorce”…yeah, and didn’t get divorced. Meaning they…stuck it out. Like no marriage ever had a rocky bit before.
Meanwhile, no New Yorker articles about Harris’ husband getting the nanny pregnant during his first marriage. I mean, if we want to bring up entirely irrelevant things.
That’s a crucial thing about Vance—he doesn’t seem to be hiding anything. His book was brutally honest about his family, his background, the addictions and dysfunctions and the problems, so there isn’t much to try to nitpick. Only a radical Leftist rag could complain that writing about something in a best-selling book also sold as an audio book and the basis for a movie is an effort to “hide” it.
OTOH, there is ample Agenda Media coverage of how Vance holds his dog’s leash, so there is that………..
Did the New Yorker ever cover the adulterous affair between Joe Biden and his kids’ babysitter, as he cuckolded his “friend” by boinking his wife? And driving around in his Corvette (which is a whole different kind of cuckolding). That’s not two generations back, and it’s about the man eventually declared to be president of the United States and his “Doctor” wife, FLOTUS, the adulterers in question, not some ancestors.
forget about sending military vehicles into residential neighborhoods to have uniformed soldiers shoot at civilians with paintballs to force them back into their houses (from their own front porches!), forget about letting his city burn
To be fair, the damage in the Twin Cities during the George Floyd riots was limited to only 1,500 locations and only 150 building were actually burned. A drop in the bucket compared to the carnage in the U.S. Capitol on 1/6/21. sarc/off And can you imagine the outrage if the Capitol police commander on Jan. 6th had shouted to his officers, “Light ’em up?”
Great point, Spook, which goes to explain the extraordinary treatment of those involved, even peripherally, in the J6 riots where we were told by a judge, no less, that merely observing the riots constituted being a part of them and called for the most severe punishments available.
A friend sent me a list of funny sayings, and one seemed appropriate for this blog, given the many comments about a ‘certain person’ wanting to sit with the ‘cool kids’.
It also sums up my attitude toward social media.
Kamala Harris—Miss Mendacity 2024
Jay’s team was awarded 6 patents for revolutionary Similarity Search technology – finding fraud in complex data – invisible to all relational technology.
Jay can be contacted at his Substack: Omega4America.Substack.com
We send the newsletter regularly – 100% of all subscription money goes to Habitat for Horses in Houston and a donkey rescue in the Austin, Texas area.
The Fractal team accepts no donations from any political organization. If you choose to subscribe to our newsletter – 100% is donated to animal rescue charities.
It is a legit worry but I do think that he’s not giving enough credit to Team Trump here – just in getting 90k dead/moved voters off the rolls in Clark County was a major victory and almost certainly puts Nevada out of Harris’ reach. To be sure, WI/MI/PA all with Democrat governors are taller orders to take care of…but Team Trump claims they’re working on it.
I guess we’ll know in 79 days.
Yep. But I note with great care that Josh Shapiro isn’t campaigning with Harris in Pennsylvania. Two ways to read that:
1. The ant-Semite base of the Democrat party might still be unsure of backing Harris.
2. Shapiro, who has definite Presidential ambitions of his own, doesn’t want to be within a country mile of the coming collapse.
My bet is that its 2 way more than 1 – Shapiro up on stage saying “rah rah Harris” wouldn’t cost a lot in Michigan or Minnesota. Also, Senator Rosen out here in Nevada doesn’t even mention that she’s a Democrat. If the Narrative were true and the weary heart of America is pining away for Harris, then Rosen would latch on to her…
Are you aware that Florida voter rolls are so bad they added a street to the voter records with people living on it? The street does NOT exist! Of course, neither do those voters.
One of the great voter integrity guys in Florida found it and deserves the credit – finding a street, with registered voters on it, that does NOT exist – sitting there in the Florida voter roll.
That’s electioneering innovation!
Why not invent a street or a couple of hundred, to create ballot accumulation points – so the Post Office would get them kicked back – to use when needed?
We run Florida and Trump could lose it.
Not a thing we would bet on, but the voter rolls are so bad that several points are now floating due to mail-in ballots. It’s close – like 4 points in the polls – and there are 500,000 fake, ineligible address/identity combos there, but it’s a stretch for Kams.
LOL!!
The thing is, you don’t have to give the “right” answer. You can say anything you want. You can say your hometown was Smallville and your first pet was a velociraptor. All you have to do is remember what you said, and make those answers unrelated to your passwords. When I realized a brother is also, basically, a criminal I realized he also knew all the regular answers to security questions—where I was born, mother’s maiden name, etc. So I started giving wildly inaccurate information. The computer does not know your mother’s maiden name was not Macadamia Nut (not, by the way, a name I used) or that you were not born in Racine, Wisconsin, or that your first car was not a Lambo or that your first child’s name is not Zackaroonie.
BTW, I once saw an interview with a computer guy/hacker who had a good idea for passwords. He said most of us keep a notebook in our offices with passwords, because who can remember them all? So he said have a notebook with rambling notes, like reminders of grocery lists or who you would like to invite to a party. “I can’t remember the name of my third grade teacher” etc. Have several such notes on different pages. You just have to remember which note you are using, then create a password with the first letter of each word in that note. Then make your Es into 3s and at the end add a number, such as the date, and every month go through your passwords and change the last digit of the date. A super spy could figure it out, but your carpet cleaner guy can’t.
A friend sent me this: Just once, I want a username and password prompt to respond, “CLOSE ENOUGH”
The latest addition to the Democrat National Convention:
I wonder if they’ll be doing live, late-term abortions on stage. That would make a statement!
What is it with Leftist women and wombs? First they howl “stay out of my uterus” and then they strut around wearing hats shaped like uteruses and sometimes full-length costumes of uteruses and create huge inflatable depictions of things designed to go into uteruses while basing their entire “political” perspective on interrupting the sole purpose of having a uterus in the first place.
And who could/would even think of making an 18 foot tall inflatable IUD?
And I don’t understand the billboard. The Left seems convinced that the Right wants to prevent contraception. One might think that the political movement based on the concept that it is the job of government to take care of people would love the effort of the Right to take care of women by keeping dangerous abortificants restricted to use under doctor supervision but then that would be a logical thought process and therefore alien to the Leftist mind.
They are dead certain that abortion plus “joy” will carry them to victory. Trouble is, they could be right! Maybe our people are so mindless that the BS campaign for Harris will work? We’re going to find out. But my conviction remains of a Trump victory – and a pretty big one, into the bargain.
We’re seeing a rerun of 2020—–a lackluster candidate with media-generated buzz, few people appearing at the few appearances scheduled, no policies outlined, a new version of the Basement Campaign but with polls oddly touting huge support for the stealth candidates. Which tells me the fix is in.
I’m intrigued by the folks at Omega4America.Substack.com who seem to have the know-how, equipment and energy to cross reference voter registration addresses with real addresses and identify the phonies—-the warehouses, Walmarts, and even the newly invented streets that just don’t exist. Now we have to get that info to the states with the notice that if these people remain on the rolls and are sent ballots and vote there will be hell to pay, including civil suits and possible criminal actions taken against officials who knowingly accept bogus registrations.
It’s a little late, but some deterrence won’t hurt. I would do this, regarding state election officials, and I would also emphasize, in Spanish and any other language that seems to represent a lot of illegal aliens, that non-citizen voting is a very big deal, a federal crime, and will be investigated and prosecuted, for that reason and because to get the registration they had to commit perjury by lying about their citizenship status. There has to be some way to cross reference return addresses on ballots to screen for bogus registrations and then just dump those ballots—-or hold them as evidence of attempted voter fraud.
And we need to let those involved—state legislatures, secretaries of state, whoever—that they will be held accountable for election fraud if they do not prove that they have been making serious efforts to get illegal voters off the rolls, as well as that false certification of vote tallies proven to be false will not be tolerated.
We ask for a lot of the abortion grief, partly by talking about federal anti-abortion legislation and partly by allowing ourselves to get sucked into the discourse. We should always just say it’s a state issue, always has been except for a brief period when a former Supreme Court made an erroneous ruling but that has been corrected. There is no reason for any presidential candidate to talk about abortion.
ROFL