Foreign Affairs

Remember That “Arab Spring” Thing?

Mark Noonan10 Comments

Ain’t quite working out as hoped – from The Daily Star:

The Syrian army consolidated its grip on the hotbed city of Homs on Sunday, activists said, as embattled President Bashar al-Assad sacked the governor of a flashpoint province 48 hours after massive anti-government protests.

Security forces also rounded up hundreds of civilians in Damascus and made a spate of arrests in the town of Sarakeb in the northwestern province of Idlib near the Turkish border, activists said…

Meanwhile, the war in Libya goes on with no end in sight, Egypt heads towards a Moslem Brotherhood government, Iran gets closer to building nuclear weapons and The One – who by “smart diplomacy” was supposed to restore our image – looks ever more weak, flabby and foolish in foreign affairs.

The world is getting ever messier due to the lack of firm leadership in the United States.  There is no policy, just a series of knee-jerk reactions. Bomb Libya to save civilians, but don’t liberate them…meanwhile, don’t bomb Syria to save civilians because … heck, I don’t know:  what is our rationale for not bombing Syria?  Are we still holding to Hillary’s assertion that Little Assad is a “reformer”?

The world works when America wields overwhelming power directed towards clear, achievable ends.   Obama doesn’t know this – I suspect that no one in his foreign policy team knows this.  2012 really can’t get here fast enough…

Eurozone Meltdown

Mark Noonan9 Comments

Both Mish and Zero Hedge are keeping an excellent running commentary on the Eurozone crisis.  To nutshell it – the bailout of Greece has failed completely (with Greek bond prices rising above 30%) and the contagion is spreading to Italy, where they are doing financial backflips to stave off collapse.

We’ll see if they can pull it off – my view remains the same:  even if they manage to plug the leak here, the dam is so swiftly collapsing that it will just move to one of a dozen other places.  Collapse is inevitable – there isn’t enough money in the world, not if Bernanke and the ECB printed day and night for 100 years, to make up for all the garbage debt there is in the world.  The only question is how bad it will be – repeat of Lehman in 2008?  Or complete financial melt down?  Time will tell – but we have to get through the crash before we can start to rebuild – the bogus debt and fake wealth has to be liquidated so that everyone knows where they stand, then we can rebuild (and, hopefully, with a bit more wisdom).

No More Arms to Egypt

Mark Noonan1 Comment

A bit of Obama foreign policy insanity noted over at Commentary:

While everyone in Washington was concentrating on the debt crisis this week, the Obama administration attempted to slip through a questionable arms deal that requires serious scrutiny. Though it got little attention, the Defense Department officially notified Congress on Friday that it was authorizing the sale of 125 M1A1 tanks to Egypt as well as other weapons, equipment, parts, training and logistical support. While most of the military sales to Egypt have sailed through without objection in the more than 30 years since it signed a peace deal with Israel, this is the first such sale since the fall of the Mubarak regime earlier this year. Which is exactly why the sale ought to be held up until the unsettled situation in the most populous country in the Arab world is better understood…

Until we see what sort of government emerges in Egypt, we should presume the worst and that means not providing Egypt with arms and support which could at some date be used against us or our allies.  The deal to arm Egypt with America’s best weapons was predicated upon Egypt firmly adhering to the Camp David accords and peace with Israel…already we see the rising Egyptian political class calling in to question these basic issues.  Wisdom dictates that we proceed with caution.

It is to be hoped that some how, some way, a non barbarous regime rises in Egypt.  If that is the case, we can resume arms shipments and make up for anything we denied them during the transition period.  According to the linked article, Congress has 30 days to object and thus halt the deal – I hope the House GOP leadership takes up this issue and forces a halt.  If Obama won’t use common sense in this matter, someone else will have to step up.

Inflation Stalks China’s Economy

Mark Noonan19 Comments

From Market Watch:

China’s consumer prices accelerated to a-three-year high in June as food prices soared 14.4%, according to data released Saturday, reaffirming expectations that Beijing won’t be in a hurry to relax its monetary stance even if it may not aggressively pursue more interest-rate increases.

Monthly data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China showed the consumer price index for June climbed 6.4 % from the same period the year before. Many economists had expected the rise to be between 6.2% and 6.4%…

When considering China, it is best to keep in mind one very important quote, as it explains it all:

…We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness. — That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed…

All that talk about China becoming predominant and having a vibrant economy and showing the world how it is done is so much nonsense.  All China has demonstrated is that if you allow free scope to unbridled greed you can get ahead for a bit.  Hitler did it, too – he allowed Germany’s industrial titans to do whatever they wanted in the pursuit of profits and, my goodness, how the money rolled it.  But because the government wasn’t by consent of the governed – and thus there was no freedom, including the freedom to check up on what business and government was up to – the whole thing became over strained.  A valid argument can be made that part of the reason Hitler struck in 1939 – rather than 1942, as he had originally planned – was because he was warned that the German economy was on the verge of collapse.  Too much government spending, too much sharp financial practice…the wheels were coming off.  It was either retrench (and have rising unemployment and resign all dreams of conquest) or attack.  It was only by plundering Europe that Germany managed to keep afloat during the war – hardly a valid economic model, but China’s is no different from Nazi Germany’s.

Evil can have its day.  Evil can astound the world.  Evil can look like a winner – but only over a relatively short period of time.  China got a bit lucky in that American economic policy during the past 20 years has essentially encouraged China to pick up our manufacturing capacity.  This gave an immense shot in the arm for China and allowed it to go on longer than it should…but now the patsy (us, that is) can’t resign any more wealth to China; now China’s bad debts have built up; now China’s fake money is under pressure; now China needs 9% growth and there is simply no way to obtain it…except by inflationary policies, which is what China did over the past two years.  But that comes with a price, too.  The financial chickens are coming home to roost in China.

To think that a horrific, corrupt and anti-human tyranny such as that which governs China could ever compete with a free people was, is and always will be absurd.  A temporary advantage is the most such a government could obtain.  All those idiots who have poured investment money in to China are about to find out just how dumb that idea was.  China is heading for a fall – whether it will result in revolution or some sort of foreign adventure as China’s government tries to hang on remains to be seen – but it cannot be sustained as is.  It will have to change – and how they get out of it remains a complete mystery:  in addition to dealing with a corrupt government and a false economic model, China is about to enter demographic decline as the anti-human “one child” policy bears it’s bitter fruit.

Really bad times are coming, folks; just get ready for them.

The Republic of South Sudan

Mark Noonan7 Comments

From Bloomberg:

The Republic of South Sudan was declared an independent nation today in the capital, Juba, as tens of thousands of people celebrated their freedom after almost 50 years of rebellion against the Muslim north.

The national flag was raised for the first time after the declaration of independence was read by the speaker of the South Sudanese parliament, James Wani Igga. Celebrations started at midnight when church bells rang as a countdown clock flashed “free at last.”…

I don’t think any nation ever started with more against it than South Sudan – generations of war and oppression lead up to this moment, and the nation is probably the poorest in the world.  The article goes on to note that there is a total of 100 miles of paved roads in the country.  On the other hand, it does sit atop rather large oil reserves and now that it is free from the north, the people there will start to see some benefits.

It is to be hoped that the new government will go absolutely free market – using only oil revenues to sustain the government and having no other taxes and minimal regulations on new businesses, South Sudan can swiftly become prosperous.  Literally, just let ‘er rip…if they set up what amounts to an area of completely free trade, money will pour in for investment.  It’ll still take 50 years to rise, but the change will be phenomenal and will start to raise up the people very quickly.

More importantly, to me, is the example this provides – both as to the oppression that Islam deals out to all non-Moslem people and the fact that separation is the only way to resolve that issue.  Following upon South Sudan we also need Assyria (out of Iraq), South Egypt, South Lebanon, a piece of the West Bank for the small Christian community there (a strip of land around Bethlehem would be best) and probably several other Christian enclaves out of other Moslem nations.  It is just a fact that Christians cannot obtain peace and justice in Moslem lands – what the Moslems did in South Sudan was by far the worst, but in all Moslem lands the lives, freedom and property of the Christians are at the mercy of the least Moslem whim.

It is time to face up to the facts – civilized behavior towards “the other” is a long way off in Islam, and until that developes it is best that no non-Moslems be forced to endure Islamic rule.

Insufferable Chinese Make Disgusting Demand

Mark Noonan8 Comments

From Reuters:

China’s Foreign Ministry warned U.S. officials on Thursday not to meet with visiting exiled spiritual leader the Dalai Lama, saying it hoped Washington “appropriately dealt” with Tibet-related issues…

We should be warning the Chinese that if they don’t mind their manners we’ll start up a trade embargo…and we’ll see how “strong” the Chinese economy is when they can’t dump their low-quality, slave-labor produced garbage in our stores.

I, for one, have had quite enough of the corrupt, beastly government in Beijing and it is high time we started acting like we know the difference between right and wrong.  My sympathies are with the long-suffering Chinese people and I can’t think of any better way to help them than to do everything we can to undermine the Chinese government…and the best way to do that is cease allowing that government to make money off the United States of America.  They’ll have a nice economic crash and maybe that will wake the Chinese people up to the need for a revolution – but even if it doesn’t then at least we won’t have anything to do with China’s government any longer.

Stylish Wife of Syrian Reformer Returns Home

Mark Noonan5 Comments

Which is how a combination of Vogue and Hillary Clinton would describe this bit from the PJ Tatler:

Sources tell PJ Media that Vogue-favorite Asma al-Assad is headed back to Syria for a week of homage or possible fence-mending (we don’t know) with husband/slaughterer Bashar and the extended Assad family. Normally Asma resides in London with her children (she’s not taking them with her) in a large estate still owned by the Assad family.

One wonders – why does the British government allow the wife of the dictator of Syria to reside in Britain while someone like Michael Savage is barred?  I realize that Savage is a bit hard to take…to me, he’s a bit of a whiner (and really has it in for Rush and O’Reilly) and talks about himself too much…but its not like he’s massacring people, as Mrs Assad’s husband is.  The Brit excuse is that Savage promotes hate, which is absurd…but even if it were true, how hateful can it be?  Not like anyone has been killed by it.

Such is the way of the world – if you are harmless, our liberals will go right after you.  If you have power and show yourself willing to use it to murder, liberals will lick your boots.  Its why they find fault with Israel, but not with the Palestinians; why they condemn American actions, but not Iranian; why they always find excuses for evil, while routinely condemning those who are trying to do the right thing.

Portugal’s Bonds Cut to Junk

Mark Noonan

From Reuters:

Moody’s became the first ratings agency to cut Portugal’s credit standing to junk, warning the country may need a second round of rescue funds before it can return to capital markets.

The downgrade on Tuesday was not entirely unexpected and served as a reminder that Europe’s debt troubles extend beyond Greece, which has dominated news headlines over its second financial bailout.

Some economists think Ireland may also need additional support, and investors worry Spain and Italy could be next in line for aid…

Which, as it turns out, is just what I’ve been saying.  But I’m no genius – all anyone has to do is total up the debt these countries owe, divide it by their (declining) population and you can easily see that they owe more than they can pay.  And I don’t mean “can pay this year” or “can pay in ten years” – I mean “can pay, ever”.  Even if these nations decided to dedicate themselves to debt payments – if they decided to live in poverty and work very hard, that is – they still couldn’t do it. Continue reading →

Death of Europe Watch

Mark Noonan6 Comments

From the Telegraph – British government won’t celebrate the bicentennial of the Battle of Waterloo:

The Government has decided not to celebrate the anniversary, on June 18th, 2015, for fear of upsetting the French. The Department of Culture has ruled out any official celebration, or a service of thanksgiving in Westminster Abbey.

It’s a pretty lily-livered decision. Would the French really care that much? Do we mind that the Americans celebrate Independence Day today – a commemoration, in part, of our ultimate defeat by American revolutionaries?…

The real notice of the Death of Europe is that Britain has a Department of Culture.  When you’ve got that, it means you have no culture left.  Culture isn’t made by government decree, it is made by people living.  Part of “living” for Europe means a vitally important battle was fought in 1815 which ended forever Napoleon’s dreams of continental domination.  It happened; it was important; it is an integral part of British and European culture…but the Department of Culture essentially says it didn’t happen.  So, no official marking of the date.

As the linked article notes, would the French really care?  Descendants of Confederates and Yankees gather to mark the anniversary of Civil War battles – it is no longer about the hatreds of war, but about honoring brave men, on both sides, who fought well for what they thought was right.  It is part of history – part of what makes us a people.  So, too, Waterloo…it is part of France, it is part of Britain; it is part of Europe.  To not mark the date is to say that the men who fought did so in vain – and, I guess they did.  Europe is dying – I don’t see how they can recover.  They haven’t even the will to learn of themselves.

S&P: Greek Bailout is a Default

Mark Noonan3 Comments

Nice of them to mention this after the S&P 500 went on a tear based on the assumption that the Greek bail out avoided a default – at any rate, the Financial Times is reporting that S&P is considering the bail out to be a “selective default”. In other words, it is just a bit of financial chicanery to keep people thinking that all is well as Greeks drops in to complete bankruptcy.

The one thing the Ruling Class doesn’t want is a gigantic financial melt down – not now, not with so many members of the Ruling Class up for re-election in 2012 (it isn’t just about Obama). Something needed to be done last week because if Greece went, it looked as though the whole, global financial system would go with it. That was and remains a correct assumption – if Greece goes, it all goes. But, also, if Spain goes, it all goes; if Portugal goes, it all goes; if Italy goes, it all goes. The problem is, as I’ve said, too much debt – governments owe far more than they can ever repay…and that is even if their people agree to be poor and work very hard for a generation to repay. It still wouldn’t work.

So, a melt down is inevitable – and anyone out there thinking that China can rescue the Euro or that China is an engine of real growth, think again: they, too, teeter on the brink of insolvency and only European and American bonds stand between them and the abyss. Its all good, if those bonds retain their value – if the Eurozone doesn’t have a default and if the United States doesn’t get a bout of inflation making our paper worth less. Not only is the melt down coming, but it is the most healthy, long term thing which can happen. We have to clear out the morass of bad debt, find out what things are really worth and then start to rebuild. The longer we keep up this extend and pretend fiction, the worse it will get.

Save money, get out of debt – and then just watch the show.