There’s really not much to say now, is there? I mean, what is going to happen is pretty much set – we’re either going to win a magnificent victory for sanity or we’re going to find ourselves much further down the road of totalitarian insanity. I believe we’re about to win – I just can’t look at early voting numbers after the surge in GOP voter registration and figure we’re going to flop on Election Day turnout. We could! The Electorate could also be 55%+ women just waiting to get out there and sweep Harris into office. But that is a very unlikely outcome, in my opinion. Why? Because the Democrats are bragging about how many millions of doors they’ve knocked and it just hasn’t shown up in the early voting. They’ve shot their bolt – they’ve done everything they can to generate enthusiasm for Harris and it doesn’t seem to be working. Not really much chance it’ll suddenly work on Tuesday. But as in all things of the future, we don’t know until it happens.
Do keep in mind that Harris wasn’t inserted into the nomination as some super brilliant, 3-D chess move…it was a desperate stop-gap after Biden fell apart and placed at risk downballot Democrats. Gotta remember the situation – back then, pre-debate, it looked like Joe had an even money chance of winning while the Democrats chance of taking the House were better than 75%…all along it looked as though the Senate was out of reach (West Virginia being gone before the cycle started and Tester facing his first Presidential-year electorate since Obama won his second term in 2012, there just wasn’t much chance of him surviving; he only won in 2012 by about 18,000 votes out of 476,000 cast). But the House looked solid for the Dems and Joe looked ok…once Joe fell apart then the White House became a vanishing prospect with a good chance that a Biden poll collapse would not only cost the White House but also drag House Democrat candidates down with him. Enter Harris: who was supposed to generate enough enthusiasm to save the House, limit Senate losses and only after about 3 miracles win the White House for the Democrats.
Also remember that the day Biden dropped out, Trump’s campaign issued a memo indicating that they knew this was a possibility (there are no actual secrets in DC, after all) and were prepared to run against Harris. They also pointed out that the MSM would be awash in pro-Harris polls and reports to boost her up and make it look like she was the Second Coming, and the Trump people were ready for that and to counter it. Overall, I think they were ready and clearly had a plan – the most obvious aspect of it being to tie Harris to Biden as much as possible, play to her inability to win anything in 2020 and then just smoke her out – the Democrats wanted to basement her as much as they did Biden in 2020 but Team Trump goaded her into going public, with disastrous results for the Harris campaign.
However Tuesday comes out, Trump has definitely fought the good fight. He even took a bullet for us. We owe him an undying debt of gratitude. The GOP will never go back to the way it was. We are done trying to please the Chamber of Commerce while Democrats destroy everything that made America both good and great. We are now firmly set on a populist, America First path and we will win – the nation will turn to us. I firmly believe that America will turn to us on Tuesday but no matter what happens Tuesday, our time is coming. The whole global ruling class is collapsing under the weight of their lies and stupidity. If we don’t win now, we will win eventually. We are right. We are the good guys. We are the actual diverse coalition of voices who just want liberty and justice for all – this will prevail, in God’s good time if not in ours.
Like a lot of people, I had the jitters but they started to calm in the last week and on Sunday, during Mass, a complete feeling of peace came over me. We’re going to be fine. And, heck, we’re doing pretty well – if I would have told you in, say, May that Trump would have banked a lead in Nevada early votes, you would have shouted for joy at the prospect. Post-facto attempts by Democrats to spin this – and Doomers to downplay it – don’t change the fact that it happened and it is a stunning reversal of the norm.
Anyways, lets have at it. It has been an enormously fun and interesting election cycle, we’re poised for our biggest victory since 1988…and maybe since 1980.
Nervous? I think most of us are – but it is time for calm. Most of the early voting is either wrapping up now or will very soon. Do keep in mind that early vote estimates are just that: estimates. Sure, we can roughly assume 95%+ of GOP and Dem votes will go to the Party…and while we have polling of Indys, we don’t know how they’ll actually vote. On balance, I’d rather be GOP right now than Dem…but until those votes are counted, it is all just guesswork, some more sophisticated than others.
Heard that Harris is moving money from North Carolina to Virginia – if so, then she’s got to draw an inside straight to get to just 270. What such a move means is that AZ/NV/GA/NC are out of reach and so she needs all of WI/MI/PA and can’t lose VA (or NH/MN/NM). And if this is the case then any of WI/MI/PA (or reach States VA/NH/MN/NM) gets Trump to victory. Trump as of this moment appears to have far more paths to victory than Harris.
The Senate looks solid for the GOP – with GOP pickups in MT and WV getting the GOP to 51 (presuming we don’t lose TX – I think Cruz will be fine, but Dems are talking it up as a chance). But the GOP has real opportunities for upsets in WI and PA – with both Baldwin and Casey running desperately away from Harris and the Democrats. NV and AZ? Very much long shots – with Brown in NV having a much better chance than Lake in AZ.
House? Your guess is as good as mine: though I expect a Trump win to drag sufficient over the finish line to get a GOP House…a Harris win doing the same for Dems but with a slightly higher chance that Harris would come in with a GOP controlled Congress if it goes that way.
Naturally, right after I wrote that about Lake, we get this:
It is very much an outlier – everyone else shows Gallego comfortably ahead. But if it is like this, then a Trump win would drag Lake over the finish line. The trend line on it is interesting. And it is in line with the general thrust of polling which shows a shift to the GOP increasing over time.
And that is where we can get to dare to dream big – there is a chance (call it 25%) that we’re heading to a 1980-style result for the GOP. But we’re just going to have to wait and see!
Just had a Sam Brown door knocker to remind me to vote – this is the first time I’ve ever been so knocked by a GOP candidate. If Brown loses, it won’t be for lack of trying. Can he win? Polls say he’s still down…but the GOP is leading early vote by about 29,000 as of last night. Dems will naturally do all they can to erase that this weekend…and I do expect the GOP lead to drop a bit as Dems go flat out…but the bottom line is that the Dems need somewhere around a 30,000 early vote lead to have a State-wide shot (not a guarantee: just a shot – the chance that they won’t be overwhelmed by rurals). It simply isn’t looking good for them.
So, Harris pushed her Texas rally via an appearance by Beyonce’…and the placed was packed. Because, of course, they were expecting at least a bit of a show by Beyonce’…who ended up speaking for a couple minutes and then leaving. Look, I’m not sure that having a bazillionaire entertainer on your side is all that much an advantage to begin with…we’re worrying about the price of food. But to have her just come in and say “yay Kammie” is an insult…witnesses say there were some boos after Beyonce’ bailed out.
Early vote in Arizona can only be described as a Democrat collapse. Sure, both GOP and Dem overall votes are down from 2020 and everyone expected that – with Covid out of the picture, more people will vote on election day…but I’m seeing 16 point shifts to the GOP in early voting. This is catastrophic if it holds through to election day. The latest Dem Hopium is that huge numbers of the GOPers are actually voting Harris and Dems – who have been strong early voters – are now deciding to do election day. This is a theory and it is possible…and if so then we’re all going to be surprised. But I really don’t see any indication that Harris is securing a large number of GOPers nor that Dems are really just waiting until the 5th.
Last night in Game 1 of the World Series a lady wore a MAGA hat right behind home plate. First off: that takes guts. Los Angeles isn’t exactly Trump Country (though a ball game will have a higher percentage of MAGA than the general LA population). Secondly, Democrats melted down about it. They wanted that lady hounded out of the ball park! Meanwhile, Harris/Walz closing argument is that we need to end the politics of division…
Harris was invited on Rogan’s podcast and apparently demanded that certain topics be off limits. Trump went on their and chatted for hours without a note…last I checked, just on YouTube it was closing on 10 million views. I think we know who feels confident 10 days out.
Prior to the allegations against Mark Robinson he was trailing in the polls – which makes you wonder why bring up the allegations in a race that, supposedly, the Democrat was cruising to victory in. Especially six weeks in advance. That sort of story is a kill-shot story to be used in the last week of a campaign so that the target simply lacks the time to respond. After the story came out, Robinson addressed it with a denial…and then moved on. Over this past week he’s been front and center in North Carolina organizing aid for the Helene victims. Talking up love, peace and unity. Its all been great. How’s he polling? Well, even if someone gives you a North Carolina poll, toss it straight into the trash…the State cannot be effectively polled right now as too large a part of it simply can’t be polled.
The fact that the story came out so far in advance – and far enough in advance where the State GOP could have inserted a new candidate – tells me that the polling wasn’t telling the story. It couldn’t be. It wouldn’t have gone like it did if polling was accurate. If you’ve got a ten point lead – as polling said the Democrat did – then you just relax and go on cruise control, more fearful of making a last-minute mistake than anything your opponent is doing. I think that it was a lot closer than polling suggests. That the polls showing Trump up narrowly and Robinson down ten were massively understating GOP support. That’s why you do the hit piece on Robinson. You’re desperately afraid of losing.
But why be so afraid?
I mean, if the Democrats win the NC governorship, its a hold. Democrat replacing Democrat. The GOP will almost certainly control the legislature by large majorities…and with Presidential year turnout, it might be super-majorities again. The governorship of North Carolina was also stripped of some key powers by the GOP legislature. It isn’t that much of a political prize. And Harris’ path to victory doesn’t really go through North Carolina. That is, losing it isn’t at all fatal and if she’s winning it, she’s probably winning big enough elsewhere that North Carolina just doesn’t matter. So, what gives?
The fact that Robinson, after the hit piece dropped, made a brief statement and then moved on. Team Trump never even addressed it. The MSM was rife with stories about how the GOP was in a panic about it, but none of that panic emerged in actions other than Robinson’s RINO staffers bailing out, merely to be replaced by far more rock-ribbed MAGA types. This terrifies the Democrats – that we’re getting candidates and becoming a party that no longer cares what they think. For 80 years every time the Democrats shouted “jump” the GOP asked “how high?”. Not like that any more. We all recognize the damaging nature of the accusation against Robinson but we just don’t care. If the whole thing is true, he’s still the intellectual and moral superior to the Democrat. You can’t get more vile than Democrats these days. They are disgusting liars and any appeal to morality they make is mere hypocrisy. If Robinson loses then that will be lousy but he’s not going to lose because we abandoned him at the behest of sick pro-aborts indicting him on a morals charge.
It isn’t just losing in North Carolina – or nationally – that frightens Democrats. It is who they will lose to. They’re not going to lose to a Bush who will then reach across the aisle to his good friend, Nancy Pelosi. They’re going to lose – to Trump and other MAGA types – to people who don’t care what they think. People who have no friendship or loyalty to them. No loyalty to the system, either. People who have been targeted with disgusting, illegal efforts to destroy them (earlier in the campaign, Robinson and his wife were forced to address the issue that before they married, they had come up pregnant and had opted for abortion…think about how many laws Democrats had to break to find that painful bit of information). We can’t even begin to list all the laws the Democrats have broken to get after Trump…and not just Trump, of course, but anyone who seems an effective surrogate for Trump (it looks like Musk’s Starlink wasn’t immediately available in North Carolina because Biden Administration efforts to hamstring Starlink…all done simply because Musk purchased Twitter and wouldn’t let Democrats censor the Right any longer).
The top of the ticket is, of course, the real fear – that Trump will win and go on a rampage. We hope! But the larger Democrat fear is that all up and down in both elective and appointive office they’ll find people who do not care what Democrats want. Who won’t take their calls. Just won’t be moved to do their bidding. They’ve got this huge power structure in the USA and it is all ultimately dependent upon government money and power…if they don’t have the power they can’t get the money. That is, if they can’t call up a bureaucrat and get their wish, nobody will give them money…which means even fewer people will take their calls and so on in a vicious, power-draining cycle. They’ll still be able to get on CNN to complain about it, but nobody watches CNN. They’re staring at this fate and I do believe they are starting to panic.
They see things like at least 55,000 people showing up in Butler yesterday (this is the number of unique cell phones present – the total number of attendees was certainly significantly larger) and it terrifies them. At least 20,000 of those attendees had never attended a Trump rally before. Harris is set to go on The View and issued a statement lauding American aid to Lebanon. These are the actions of a candidate losing support among core constituencies (that is, only Muslim Americans will be pleased with aid to Lebanon and only upper class urban/suburban women watch The View). Tammy Baldwin refused to campaign with Harris. Tester is running away from the Democrats as fast as he can (it won’t be fast enough). There are deep fears among Democrats about the Pennsylvania Senate race. Early and mail voting continues to be depressing for Democrats as the numbers just aren’t there while the GOP is doing better in both than ever before. We could be at the start of a cascade preference.
Time will tell! But I’m feeling good. I love the smell of Democrat panic in the morning – and I love the new GOP which no longer cares what Democrats think.
Melania Trump had a short video promo for her autobiography where she said the dread phrase “my body, my choice”. The word is that she does fall on the so-called “pro-choice” side of the abortion issue – which is really no surprise given her background – European who grew up under a Communist system. She’s Slovenian but when she was born Slovenia was captive by Tito’s Communist Yugoslavia. All that woke garbage our kids are subjected to these days? It was being imparted in the Communist bloc decades ago. Not the bourgeoisie-decadent stuff like being sexually non-binary we have, but all the drivel about human life being of only subjective value. So, even though Catholic, it wouldn’t surprise me that she’s in favor of legal abortion (most Catholics in America are, as well – though heaviest support is, naturally, among the more nominally Catholic). But I have my doubts that she’s in favor of the absolutely lunatic, anti-human position the Democrats have – federally funded on demand to the moment of birth…and maybe a little after if the abortion “doctor” botches it.
This has sparked some intense debate on the Right – naturally with the Left gleefully joining in – and I understand the angst. It is just a plain fact that there can be no justice in a system which allows the killing of unborn children. If anyone is innocent, it is the child. If there is any situation where killing isn’t justified, it is when dealing with an unborn child. I get that. I understand it. I believe it to the depths of my being. But we have a problem here: we lost the fight.
While we were busy trying every expedient we could to get 5 Justices who would simply rule on the law and thus dispose of Roe, we didn’t really notice that in the overall culture, abortion was becoming entirely normalized. It is still viewed with distaste by all sane people, but we probably don’t have nationwide more than 25% in favor of a ban. It just isn’t politically possible for us to get anything like a series of pro-life laws enacted across the nation. Even if the deepest Red areas we are finding it difficult to so much as restrict the practice. People are resistant to us – and it is because the Left has successfully couched the issue as one of “choice”. Americans do not like being told they can’t do something. This natural inclination has been ruthlessly exploited by the pro-abortion liars of the Left.
And that brings me, once again and for the zillionth time, back to my main point these days: the lies are the problem. I got into a little debate on X with a fellow Righty who is sure that Trump is headed for a loss and in this debate I put out that if the mere truth were told on a consistent basis, Harris would be lucky to get to 30% of the vote. He felt that even if the truth were told, she’d still score at least mid-40s. I disputed that and I still do. I really do believe that once the lie is exposed, people do reject it. The trouble is getting the lie exposed – it isn’t enough to simply state the truth, the lie must be suppressed. In other words, we can’t have a debate between lies and truth…only truth must be allowed on the stage. And if the stage is held by truth, then people will act according to truth. Let a lie up there and at least some percentage will act on the lie…and if the lies are clever and ubiquitous, then you’ll find majorities in favor of lies. People still might make a mistake with truth, but they won’t do self-destructive things with it. Its the difference between telling a child that boiling water is hot vs telling that while having six other people say it isn’t. The truth will not win – the child will stick his hand in the boiling water.
I’ve talked before about some of the ways and means of crushing the lies but the first step in any such program is to obtain power. Without power we can’t do anything. If we fail to obtain power, then the lies will rule the roost and we’ll be led away in chains by liars. It is going to be difficult to get power. With a horribly bad economy, with the world on fire and with our two main opponents gibbering idiots, there is still a chance we can lose. As I’ve said, I don’t believe we will – I believe all factual metrics point to a GOP victory…but even if it is a smashing GOP victory, it’s going to be 50.5% of the overall vote, a 2-seat Senate and a 10-seat House majority. In other words, even if we win big this year…we’re just going to barely do it overall…and we’ll be faced with nearly half the population united firmly behind liars. To get to this victory and to continue to obtain victories long enough for us to enact real reforms – reforms which will allow us to really push back against liars – is going to require some tactical flexibility.
The Democrats are thermonuclear on the abortion issue. Here in Nevada I’d guess fully half the Democrat ads are about abortion. It is all ridiculous fear-mongering about what we won’t do – and can’t do: ban abortion nationwide. In this fight, Team Trump has decided on tactical flexibility on the Life issue…they’re trying to defuse the Democrats’ most potent weapon and make it, as best, a wash for them. Will their plan work? We’ll find out in a month – but I advise against complaining about it until we see. If it doesn’t work then we’ll have to rethink things…but if it does work and gets us a government that will stop prosecuting us for praying near an abortion clinic, that’s a win, guys. A big win. We must learn to take the win.
It is going to be a long, frustrating and at times very painful march to restore a semblance of American liberty and justice – it took us a century to lose this fight and it may well take another century to win it back. Step by step! The first step is to win.
Sorry, just couldn’t. Padres were playing Game 1 against the Braves. Keep everything in perspective! And the Padres won it 4-0. They are genuine Series contenders.
Anyways, I did follow along on X and I got the flavor of it – Walz is a knucklehead who’s friends with school shooters while Vance was like a wrecking ball fighting off both Vance and the “moderators”. We really have to stop having debates with MSMers running the show. First question should have been about inflation. Second about Ukraine. Third about immigration. Fourth about the Middle East. And that’s it – those are the issues that matter. Asking about climate change and J6 is just ridiculous.
But we live in a ridiculous age, don’t we?
This debate will not move the needle – VP debates never do. People don’t vote for the understudy. Ever. But I think that Vance’s overall performance solidified things for Trump. The MSM has been calling him weird and making him out to be some sort of woman-hating creep and he came across tonight as clearly informed and in command of the issues. People now know that if Trump wins then if anything happens, a fully competent person will immediately take charge. For Harris…not so much. Walz revealed himself as someone who is only possible in a hot-house Liberal atmosphere and only as long as he’s protected by the Media. He was protected again tonight but he still had to get out there…and while he wasn’t Biden-like in his performance, he clearly is not ready for the national stage. More and more it becomes obvious that he was picked because he was the only guy who would accept – nobody with real ambition and ability wanted to be tied to Harris.
I remain as I have since July: confident of victory. All real metrics are showing Trump strength – only some of the polling shows any chance for Harris, and even that is starting to waver as pollsters start to be concerned about future credibility and so start hedging their bets. People are tired; they do want a new way forward…and Team Harris’ attempt to make out that she hasn’t been in charge over the past 4 years has fallen flat. She can’t convince enough people that those who made the problem can fix it.
Trump went to New York for a rally and a lot of people are puzzled by that – with the puzzlement ranging from “he’s an idiot wasting time” to “he’s gonna flip New York!”. Neither are correct but that we’re getting that wide a variance indicates that one of the main things about the 2024 cycle is the lack of thought people are putting into it.
As I’ve been saying for years, Trump reads from a script. It seems spontaneous – and he has the talent to insert genuine spontaneity to his public appearances – but it is all very carefully planned. Guys who earn billions of dollars off of real estate don’t do things on the fly. They can’t. There’s too many moving parts and too many things that can go wrong. So, you plan. Here in 2024, Trump is working from a plan. This plan appears to have been thought out within weeks of the Presidency being declared for Biden. I doubt there was a moment’s doubt in Trump’s mind that he was going to try again (though I suspect that Melania was a voice against it; not that she’s not supportive, but I get the sense that she thinks it a burden…though I’ve detected a switch to steely determination since the assassination attempts). The first step in this plan was to keep “Stop the Steal” alive.
This was nearly universally derided by everyone outside Trump’s orbit (and I’ll bet dollars to donuts plenty of people inside it urged against it). Even I thought for a short while he should drop it…but he kept it up. A rolling, steady drumbeat about the questionable actions. And that formed the basis for his 2024 primary campaign – which he was supposed to lose as a GOP electorate, tired of Trump’s “tirades” about 2020 switched over to a new standard bearer. But a funny thing happened – it worked. Mostly because the Democrats walked right into it…opting for lawfare which merely solidified in the GOP base’s mind that the steal was real (not that we needed much urging – we could see it). The fatal moment for those who wanted to replace Trump atop the ticket, turns out, was their failure to condemn in no uncertain terms the 2020 result. That became the litmus test – the only thing which could tell a GOP base voter that a candidate was reliable. We all knew there was fraud. It was obvious…to not condemn it and seek to alter the system bespoke a desire to please the Establishment rather than us…and so Trump cruised to a win in the primaries.
You have to sort of review all that in your mind – the events from December 2020 to the time Trump was indicted. Once you look at it in hindsight, you can see the plan. “Stop the steal” rhetoric kept the base on Trump’s side…and positively goaded the Democrats into ever more extreme actions. They knew they had used fraud to get Biden in…but what stuck in their craw was Trump not politely rolling over on it. Nothing angers a liar than being called out on it. You can just see it got under their skin…probably most of all under Biden’s. Of course, the ever more extreme actions just solidified Trump’s position in the GOP…while the totally absurd nature of the lawfare started to generate some sympathy for Trump outside his base voters. I mean, seriously: dragging Trump into court in New York because a clearly insane woman wanted to use a law written just for her to sue Trump for assault was ridiculous…and outside far left partisans, everyone could see it was ridiculous. The rest of the cases were no less silly. And they all have worked out to Trump’s advantage.
I don’t know if Trump counted on wiping Biden out in a debate. But he sure leaped at the first opportunity, didn’t he? Everyone said it was a huge mistake – Trump was walking into a trap. But here’s what we can see in hindsight: for all of Biden’s manifest flaws, he does have working class appeal. Can’t deny it. He really did grow up poor. He can speak the language of the working class. He’s lying his a** off when he does it, but he can do it. Trump to win in 2024 needs blue collars…lots of them. The upper and middle class urban and suburban whites rejected him in 2016 and even more so in 2020. No doubt they will largely do so again in 2024. It became a crucial necessity to break Biden’s ability to pull in blue collar voters…and Trump knew that Biden was going gaga. All he had to do was get him on any stage, even in the most Biden-favorable circumstances, and Biden would be exposed as the senile, frail old man that he is. Presto! Done. Whether or not he thought they’d dump Biden for Harris or just put Harris front and center to keep Biden off stage would become a complete irrelevancy…only Biden can pull in the blue collars that Trump needs and if he’s off the ticket or off the stage, he can’t do it. He was able to do it with rare appearances in 2020 because he was still reasonably lucid and Covid gave the excuse for being rarely seen. But in 2024, it had to be Biden out there matching Trump appearance for appearance and the debate showed that Biden is done…and simply can’t do it. Meanwhile having Harris out there either in the top spot or as surrogate is a complete disaster for Democrat attempts to pull in working class votes…she’s just too clearly West Coast upper class Leftist…the very sort of person that the entire American working class has always despised.
So, for Trump, it doesn’t matter who the nominee is – as long as it wasn’t a reasonably lucid and energetic Biden. But Mark, you say, isn’t the polling going bad for Trump? Most of it is. But do remember that when they finally pushed Joe out and inserted Harris the Trump campaign said, directly, that the polling was now going to favor Harris. It had only gone against Joe – and only moderately in public polling – because the Democrats had decided Joe had to go and so needed public polling that pressured him to quit. Team Trump knew that the positive public polling for Trump was a chimera…a temporary glance at reality just to get a particular job done. That finished, the polling switched back to the norm: massively overstating Democrat strength. Someone earlier today posted a screen shot of the Quinninpiac Pennsylvania polling for 2020…it showed Biden leads from 7 to 14 points or so. He barely won the State. Now, this was a whole series of polls done over months and they never even got close to the final result…when you see that sort of miss that consistently in one direction, then that graduates your poll from “mistake” to “lie”. It wasn’t that Quinninpiac got its model a bit wrong or that they missed some detail…they were lying. Bald faced, ridiculous lies. They’re lying again here in 2024. All the pollsters who got big misses in favor of the Democrats (and that is most public polling) missed consistently in the Democrats favor in 2016 and 2020. Not mistakes. They are lies. Lies designed to depress GOP turnout and encourage Democrats to donate and vote.
So, how does this tie into Trump being in New York? Well, it can be one of three things:
Just a huge, stupid mistake.
A headfake to confuse and scare Democrats.
Confidence in 270.
Although Trump is working from a plan, this doesn’t guarantee its a good plan. The most brilliant leader can simply screw up. It happens. We won’t know if Trump’s plan is a good one until 11/5. But that there is a plan can’t be doubted. So, it could be that stupid mistake. If so, we’ll find out for sure on Election Day. It could be a headfake…just a foray into the Blue stronghold to make Democrats look over their shoulder. But such a thing would be better done in Virginia or Minnesota where there is polling showing Trump at least close. So, absent it being a mistake or a headfake, it is confidence in 270. Personally, that is what I think it is.
That is, I believe that Team Trump is very confident that they’ve got more than 270 electoral votes sewn (though they will continue to campaign in the battlegrounds right up to the end) and now they’re making a play for something I think Trump wants very badly: an overall popular vote win. We all know it is irrelevant…but it is highly symbolic and it is something the Democrats have invested in as some sort of political holy grail. Trump can’t win New York – figuring he’s going to flip it is, sorry, just silly. There are simply too many Democrat voters in New York City for that to happen. But if Trump can increase his vote share there by 450,000 (and consequently drop Harris that much from Biden’s 2020 total) then its a huge boost in his chances to get to 50%+1 of the vote. He needs to flip the overall popular vote about 3.5 million his way out of what will probably be 157 million votes. Doable. Not easy. If you had to bet on it then don’t bet the rent. But it is doable. And if done, it takes away most of the arguments the Democrats have against Trump…and the last shred of Never Trump argument.
As I’ve always said, in politics look at what people are doing rather than what they’re saying. Harris is camping out in Pennsylvania. Trump is having a rally in New York. Trump is clearly far more confident than Harris. To be sure, Trump’s confidence can be misplaced. I am absolutely certain Trump will win. November 5th might merely prove me a fool. But I do believe I have facts to back up my case: voter registration numbers, early ballot requests, anecdotal evidence of Trump strength on the ground, etc. Any objective analyst of politics is going to say that if they had to choose who to be, they’d choose being Trump…he’s clearly got the inside track to win. But however you wish to slice that up, Trump is clearly confident of the outcome…and he’s going to follow his plan right to the end. With right now being the play for a popular vote win…which is just as downright ridiculous as the part of his plan that had him shouting from the rooftops in 2022 that the 2020 election was stolen. But, then again, how did the earlier part of the plan work?
I’ll finish up with this: I’m not asking for anyone to love Trump. You don’t have to wear a MAGA hat. But I am asking for all patriots to join in giving a gigantic middle finger to the mountain of lies which sustain Harris and the Ruling Class. Dooming does nothing for you. Having confidence will turn the campaign in to the funnest thing you’ve ever done. Lets get out there and save our country, friends. It is in our hands.
Update: I had talked bad polling for Trump in the post and then Emerson went and did this…with their thumb on the scale for her, this is the best they could do!
With the second attempted assassination of President Trump the Democrats – the overall Ruling Class – is completely taking the mask off. After the first attempt for at least a couple days they pretended to be upset about it but within an hour of the second attempt, the Democrats were out there blaming Trump for the whole situation. His “violent rhetoric”, you see, was responsible for this – not Democrats calling him Hitler II and saying he poses an existential threat to “Our Democracy”. Oh, no – that had nothing to do with it! It was all Trump…that whole thing about not wanting millions of foreigners flooding into the country! That’s what sparked the violence! Haven’t you seen all the MSM reports about threats against Haitians?
All of those threats, turns out, were bogus – and most of them originated from overseas. Kinda odd, don’t you think, that they had a ready-made excuse for shooting at Trump…almost like, I dunno, someone kinda knew there was a threat on the way.
At least in this case, we got the guy – and DeSantis has pledged an independent investigation by Florida law enforcement. He has to – and not just for his own political future…for his own life. If he does emerge as the front-runner in 2028 then this will happen to him, unless he can smoke out what happened.
As per usual, massive questions about this guy – sure, he’s a nutjob…but he’s a nutjob who illegally obtained a weapon. Don’t know about you, but I don’t even know the first step in obtaining an illegal weapon. I don’t know who to ask – or even how to ask. This guy had one. And he got within a few hundred yards of Trump with it…scope-sighted! Had Trump come into view, it would have been an easy shot. He’s also a nutjob who lives in Hawaii…not Florida. That’s not a cheap flight, even if you book it a bit in advance. From the looks of it, the guy doesn’t have a pot to piss in…but he got himself an expensive, illegal rifle with scope and got himself from Hawaii to Florida. Naturally, he was also on the FBI’s radar…he’s been convicted in the past (and so can’t legally purchase a weapon) and he was investigated in 2019 for attempting to obtain a firearm.
Make no mistake about it, the Democrats willed this into being just as they will the first attempt into being. They want Trump to die. They are willing to do anything to get rid of him. Their rhetoric is specifically designed to play upon the fears of lunatics so they will go and do something…while the Deep State gives them every opportunity to do it. And this time around they are keeping up the hate filled rhetoric. They are running out of time and can’t afford even a couple days of laying off…they need the next lunatic to act fast.
But this doesn’t end well – not for anyone. Civil Society is all nice and civil until its not. In Spain in the 1930’s there was first no violence, then a little violence…and then one side whacked the other side’s leadership…within months Spaniards were at each other’s throats and hundreds of thousands died in some of the most cruel and grisly ways. It is very much slowly and then all at once. The most peaceful, laid back people in the world will turn to violence very fast if they feel under threat…and because they are peaceful, when they turn to violence it becomes extreme violence. No quarter asked or given. The idiots in our overall Ruling Class simply don’t know what they’re playing with. They have to stop – but I don’t think they will.
Pray for Trump. Pray for victory. Pray for our poor country.
Everyone all excited? Ready for this decisive moment?
Meh. I don’t think it’ll be that big a deal.
This can’t harm Trump in my view – he’s such an entirely known quantity that there’s no zinger Harris can use that will redefine him. On the other hand, huge downside potential for Harris here: she has to pretend that she’s not part of the current Administration while making out that her current office has prepared her to lead. And she needs to make the case that while the Administration has screwed everything up, she can fix it. Add in the fact that she’s not a great debater or public speaker and I don’t see this going too well for her: best she can hope for is to do no harm to herself.
To be sure, the MSM articles lauding her performance are already written…they were, in fact, likely written by the Harris campaign and just handed out to the MSMers so that each “journalist” could tweak it a bit and make it seem unique. There will be the flash polls showing that 90% of Trump voters now want to give her a sloppy kiss. Yadda, yadda, yadda.
Polls have been weakening for Harris for about ten days now – and Nate Silver’s forecast shows a good chance of a Trump win. The bottom line is that, at best, Harris is a point or two ahead of Trump in the popular vote polling and is behind in enough Battleground States to get Trump past 270. Its not going well in spite of overwhelmingly positive MSM coverage of her and a massive infusion of campaign cash. But, I guess we’ll see what happens tonight!
So the Cheney family is going all-in on Harris. Some are expecting the Bush family to join in and while this is in the realm of possibility, I doubt it. The Bush family retains political ambitions that can only be satisfied on the GOP side of the aisle as the children of W and Jeb rise in the world. The Bush family is already persona non grata in many parts of the GOP so an endorsement of Harris would finish the family forever in GOP politics. The Cheney’s have no future in the GOP so there was no cost to them for endorsing Harris. But the spectacle of the man the Left compared to Darth Vader being welcomed to Team Harris is astonishing. None of us saw this coming twenty years ago.
But even without an explicit endorsement of Harris by the Bush family, they still aren’t out there campaigning for Trump – and Trump likely doesn’t want them to, given the negative connotations the family has on both sides of the aisle. And that is the sea-change; the political realignment. Cheney for Harris and Kennedy for Trump. The old Right/Left dichotomy that started in the 1930’s is over with for good or ill and there’s no going back. Trump is the GOP nominee because the old GOP betrayed us – every time push came to shove, the old GOP gave in to the Democrats. The remains of the old GOP still want us to give in to the Democrats. Those old GOPers who know we never will are now moving over to the Democrat side of the aisle…while anyone on the Dem side who is sick to death of the wokeness, the lies and the corruption is moving over to us even if on policy they aren’t 100% with us.
Latest rumor being floated by Team Harris is that Keith Ellison, the insane Leftist attorney general of Minnesota, is on the short list for US attorney general. This is done to try and pull in Muslim votes in Michigan and Minnesota…which is something that Harris isn’t supposed to have to do on September 7th of the campaign year. Clearly, her internal polling is not rosy. By this time she’s supposed to be tacking to the center and trying to get to 270…this is a move to the hard left necessary to ensure her base of 226 is still with her. To be sure, if she does win it is no certainty that Ellison would actually be nominated, let alone confirmed by what is almost certain to be at least a 51-GOPer Senate…but if anyone sane needed a reason to vote Trump, this is it. Ellison is an evil man who hates the United States of America. Keeping him out of federal office is the moral duty of all decent people.
How is the race going? Well, back on November 7th, 2020, Trump beat Biden by 74,483 votes in North Carolina. Back then, the Democrat voter registration advantage in the State stood at 391,043. Today? It stands at 128,306. Just as in 2016, I think the voter registration numbers are a gigantic flashing red light…but most political Experts and polling number crunchers are ignoring them…and the few who even mention registrations only do so to dismiss them. But I think its the most crucial indicator of how things are going – the Experts think that 2016 was the aberration…it wasn’t: 2020 was. Covid plus cheating got Biden in, not some swing to the old political norm. Trump now is the political norm. People are sick to death of the Ruling Class, GOP and Democrat. Biden was the last gasp of a dying Ruling Class…and they had to massively cheat to get him over the finish line. And a level of cheating that was only possible in the unique circumstances of Covid restrictions.
Could I be wrong? Of course I can. We’re going to find out! But I suspect at the end of the day a substantial trump win. Maybe 40% chance he wins the popular vote while also securing a 312 vote Electoral College victory.
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