So, what is going on out there:
The housing bubble hangover, part 2
A booming ‘shadow inventory’ in the housing market is almost certain to bring another wave of falling prices and another round of Federal Reserve stimulus.
For those who think all is well again in the world of Richistan, consider the following statistic.
The percentage of $1 million-plus loans more than 90 days delinquent rose to 13.3% in February, half again as high as the 8.6% overall delinquency rate, according to First American CoreLogic, which tracks U.S. real estate and mortgages.
Bankruptcy filings on the rise
It’s tough out there — no jobs, home values plummeting — and Americans are reacting by heading to bankruptcy court.
Bankruptcy filings surged 14% during the first half of 2010, according to the American Bankruptcy Institute. Filings totaled 770,117 through June, compared to 675,351 during the same period last year…
Vancouver home sales drop sharply
Vancouver’s housing market slowed considerably in June, with 30 per cent fewer sales than a year ago…
Orders to U.S. Factories Declined in May More Than Forecast
Orders placed with U.S. factories declined in May more than forecast, a sign that manufacturing may be starting to cool.
The 1.4 percent decrease in bookings was the biggest since March 2009…
Data Shows Growth in Asia May Be Slowing
In the latest signs that the rate of growth in the Asia-Pacific region is easing, the Australian central bank kept interest rates steady on Tuesday and a critical economic index in Japan slipped in May…
So, its not just doom-mongering – its just bad out there, and getting worse. And, remember, the data we’re seeing now is really mostly from a month or two ago – when things were supposed to be going splendidly with all the stimulus reaching peak effect. This was supposed to propel us to a stellar second quarter and then keep us all happy and prosperous through quarters three and four. Now, even optimists are talking of measly growth…while others are saying recession by early 2011.
Obamunism didn’t work. No surprise, as its model – FDR’s New Deal – also didn’t work. Learn this lesson if nothing else: THE GOVERNMENT HAS NO MONEY TO STIMULATE ANYTHING. There isn’t a magical money tree, no matter how often Bernanke adds another zero to the Fed’s balance sheet. Money has to be earned, saved and then invested – there are no short cuts. Though, as we found, if you’re willing to be idiots (and we have been, my brothers and sisters) then you can print and borrow your way in to quite an economic crisis…but, eventually, it all has to be paid for.
All we did with the stimulus was move money around from one set of bankrupt books to another. We manufactured some pretend economic growth and are paying for it with a mortgaged future. We staved off collapse for a year, maybe two. That’s all.
When we finally wake up and start thinking, then we have to realize that only hard work and the use of our labor and resources will do it for us. We have to make, mine and grow things – information technology and green jobs won’t do the trick. We’ll have to get our hands dirty, I am afraid.
I really hope we learn our lesson, this time.
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