Blogs For Victory

Instapundit has an excellent tool where you can fiddle around with spending and taxes and figure out how to balance our budget.  I came up with my plan:

A 20% reduction in military spending.

A 20% reduction in Medicaid spending.

A 74% reduction in non-defense, discretionary spending.

A 10% increase in payroll taxes.

Income and corporate taxes remain as they are, as do Social Security and Medicare spending.

Under this plan, the budget goes in to surplus in 2014 – but has the drawback of going back in to deficit in 2018.  But not nearly as much as we are now – in the $200 billion range.

To me, though, it shows that it can be done – and done by the crucial 2014-15 time frame when we are currently at risk of real default.  Of real national bankruptcy.

The drawback of the tool is that it isn’t finely tuned enough – I’m sure I could find things to significantly cut the Social Security/Medicare budget without lowering benefits.  Essentially, that is why I had to cut non-defense, discretionary spending so much.  I cut defense on the rock-solid theory that there is a lot which can be cut there without affecting readiness.  As for my cuts to Medicaid, I am certain that if we block granted out funds to charitable hospitals and medical facilities, we can provide superior care to the poor at lower cost – the huge bureaucracy we use now to do it is likely eating up a huge amount of money, mis-allocating resources and generally screwing things up.  People who actually do health care can likely do it better than the bureaucrats in charge.  I don’t think we’d actually go back in to deficit under a plan really crafted by me, down to the penny (and what we really need for this discussion is a line by line list of budget items…give us the dollars and cents spent on each department and bureau along with the subsidiary organizations, all grants, all scheduled payments to contractors as well as how much we pay each employee and a description of what they do…then we can really figure out what to cut).

In reality, I think we can get to a surplus by 2015 – and keep up a $500 billion a year surplus for as long as we need to pay off our debts for good (and, remember, even if we’re even – no surplus, no deficit – we’re paying off debt…the big surplus devoted to debt repayment means we’d be out of debt by 2015 or so; and then we can slash taxes like no tomorrow). And that must be the goal – followed by a constitutional amendment prohibiting the government from issuing bonds except during a declared state of war.

Anyways, play around with it, yourselves – see what you can come up with.

The man is rising in my estimation by the day:

…What we told the president in January was this: the American people will not accept an increase in the debt limit without significant spending cuts and reforms.

And over the last six months, we’ve done our best to convince the president to partner with us to do something dramatic to change the fiscal trajectory of our country. . .something that will boost confidence in our economy, renew a measure of faith in our government, and help small businesses get back on track.

Last week, the House passed such a plan, and with bipartisan support. It’s called the ‘Cut, Cap, and Balance’ Act. It CUTS and CAPS government spending and paves the way for a Balanced Budget Amendment to the Constitution, which we believe is the best way to stop Washington from spending money it doesn’t have. Before we even passed the bill in the House, the President said he would veto it.

I want you to know I made a sincere effort to work with the president to identify a path forward that would implement the principles of Cut, Cap, & Balance in a manner that could secure bipartisan support and be signed into law. I gave it my all.

Unfortunately, the president would not take yes for an answer. Even when we thought we might be close on an agreement, the president’s demands changed.

The president has often said we need a ‘balanced’ approach — which in Washington means: we spend more. . .you pay more. Having run a small business, I know those tax increases will destroy jobs.

The president is adamant that we cannot make fundamental changes to our entitlement programs. As the father of two daughters, I know these programs won’t be there for them and their kids unless significant action is taken now.

The sad truth is that the president wanted a blank check six months ago, and he wants a blank check today. That is just not going to happen.

Because there is no stalemate in Congress. The House has passed a bill to raise the debt limit with bipartisan support. And this week, while the Senate is struggling to pass a bill filled with phony accounting and Washington gimmicks, we will pass another bill – one that was developed with the support of the bipartisan leadership of the U.S. Senate.

I expect that bill can and will pass the Senate, and be sent to the President for his signature. If the President signs it, the ‘crisis’ atmosphere he has created will simply disappear. The debt limit will be raised. Spending will be cut by more than one trillion dollars, and a serious, bipartisan committee of the Congress will begin the hard but necessary work of dealing with the tough challenges our nation faces.

Not much else needs to be said – this is the common sense, rational approach to our problem.  It is the statement of a man sincerely trying to do best by the people of the United States of America.  Not a man who is 100% right; not a man who must get 100% of his way…simply a man who wants to do what is right and is willing to compromise.

Trouble is, Obama and his Democrats don’t want compromise – the reason we have a “crisis” right now is because that is what Obama intended.  He (and his Democrats) kept putting off any action until we got close to a false dead line…they trusted that the phonied up crisis atmosphere would get the GOP to cave in.  In Speaker Boehner and the House GOP, they found people who will not cave.

Truth be told, even if they wanted to cave, they really can’t.  Obama and his Democrats refuse to see it, but we have reached journey’s end for Big Government.  There is no more money to spend – we can, perhaps, keep going as we are for three or four more years, but even that is dicey.  It might only be a year or two.  Regardless, we can’t go on – we have bankrupted ourselves.  It isn’t, by any stretch of the imagination, just the fault of Obama and the current crop of Democrats.  This is a bi-partisan bankruptcy that really got on track 40 years ago…with a few temporary halts under Reagan and (GOP-dominated) Clinton, we’ve been careening down this road to insolvency for decades.  But what is Obama’s fault is the failure to see things as they are – either out of complete blindness, or a simple lack of concern for the fate of the American people, Obama and his Democrats refuse to face facts.

But the facts must, at the end of the day, be faced.  Boehner sees this – sees that even if he caves for the sake of political peace, the price to be paid will be gigantic.  It simply isn’t worth it – at the cost of hostile MSM commentary; at the cost of even losing the 2012 election, we GOPers simply cannot agree to anything which puts the United States at risk.  If we get punished by the American people for this stance, then so be it – if, in the end, they choose to re-elect Obama next year and complete the process of bankruptcy, then that is their right…but we on our side will not participate in it.  Folly with majority votes does not become wisdom.

But, also, I think the American people see it our way.  We know we spend too much and that spending must be cut.  Sure you can find support for higher taxes out there, but the primary culprit in out problem is not lack of revenues, but surfeit of spending.  No one trusts a Democrat who says give me tax hikes now and I promise to cut spending  over ten years…we know we’ll get the hikes all right, but we’re sure to be screwed out of the spending cuts.  Cut now, and then we’ll talk about revenues…until Obama and his Democrats agree to this, there is really nothing to discuss.  And on this issue, if the Democrats want, we’ll fight in 2012 – and I believe we will win, and win very big.

UPDATE:  Obama still refuses to release any written plan – grossly irresponsible of our President, but entirely in character.

UPDATE II:  A lot of House GOPers are showing resistance to the Boehner plan…the MSM will play this up as a problem, but it is actually a strength.  I means that Boehner will have the power to back up his position.

UPDATE III:  Obama will veto the Boehner plan.  This is called “balance” by liberals…you know, where they get everything we want while we get nothing.  Still:  go for it, Mr. President.  We’re ready for the fight.

One might think that the dueling addresses might lay out the differences – except we already know what they are, and we further know that the only reason we don’t have resolution is because Obama and the Democrats won’t give up Big Government.  Whether there will be a shift in Obama’s position remains to be seen – I highly doubt it, but I bet they’ve crafted some poll-tested sound bites to try and move the debate Obama’s way.  Trouble is, I doubt that most people are really paying attention to Obama at this point.

As for Boehner, we can expect he’ll just re-state the obvious:  the GOP won’t go for tax hikes and insists upon real spending reductions.  This is core, GOP belief and it is backed by the majority of the American people.

How does this end?  Beats me – but unless the GOP caves, we’re going to come out on top.

UPDATE: Allen West backs Boehner:

I will support the new debt deal- it has enough of what I need including no tax hikes, spending caps and a step toward a balanced budget.

That should help Boehner with the TEA Party wing.

UPDATE II:  And we’ll see if Obama’s speech changes this…

From CNBC:

U.S. House of Representatives Speaker John Boehner told fellow Republicans on Sunday that he is considering a balanced-budget amendment to the Constitution as part of a bill that would raise the debt ceiling, a source who heard his message said.

That could be a sign that the Republican-controlled House and the Democratic-controlled Senate remain far apart in tense negotiations to avoid an Aug. 2 default.

A balanced-budget amendment is popular with conservatives and was a central element of a bill that failed in the Senate after passing the House last week…

The bottom line here is that Boehner must bring home something in the nature of genuine cuts and/or a reform in spending which promises to balance the budget in a realistic amount of time.  Failure to carry at least this minimum risks a wipe out of the GOP in 2012 – not that GOPers would vote Democrat, but it would almost ensure a third party emerging to carry the fiscally conservative banner in to 2012.  This is key – this is central; this is the non-negotiable thing.

On the other side are the Democrats.  For them it is a matter of preserving the spending they enacted 2009-10.  This must become the “new normal”.  They know full well that they won’t regain the House in 2012 and stand to lose control of the Senate – the loss of the White House must also be envisioned but for the Democrats this is a secondary thing.  Keeping the spending is vital – because it is only via government spending that they retain any power.  Only, that is, if they can keep dispensing lavish amounts of taxpayer dollars on favored groups can the Democrat coalition sustain itself.  Even if they lose in 2012, if they can retain the 2010 level of spending, Democrats feel confident that by 2014 or 2016 they can regain power…and then expand their power via spending from today’s current levels.  Whatever Democrats do, they won’t agree to any substantial cuts in spending.  Not for real – promises of trillions in cuts over the years they’ll give with wild abandon…counting on never having to actually produce the cuts.  We can debate whether they don’t care we’re going broke, or don’t realize it – but the effect is the same:  come what may, they are determined to preserve their spending (my view is that they don’t care – if we do eventually default, they’ll have no problem with that, figuring it would just allow them to go on another borrowed money spending spree once the dust settles…and, of course, a default would be a strong argument for higher taxes).

So, how do we get past the impasse?  Mostly, we put it off until 2013 – hoping that in 2012 we win so big that we’ll have sufficient political power to impose a fiscally conservative settlement of the issue.  The way to get from here to there is, at the end of the day, agree to an increase in the debt ceiling (a totally un-necessary and, indeed, regressive thing to do…but Democrats have their heart set on it and as they control the White House and the Senate, we really can’t get ’round it).  But if we are to agree to increase the debt ceiling, we need something concrete out of it – some sort of real cut to spending next year, along with some real budgetary reform.  A balanced budget amendment, sent to the States, would be ideal.

We’ll see now if it can be done.  Democrats have hyped up the August 2nd deadline as if it means something…but when powerfull people start talking like that, the sheep who man the financial markets start to take it seriously.  Thus we’ve seen the tremors roiling through the global markets.  They should be worried about the fact that the global economy is heading in to recession…but what they are worried about is whether the government will approve the ability to go further in to debt (ie, further on the road to economic ruin).  Still, in all this, Democrats might have shot themselves in the foot…it is  fake crisis, but even a fake crisis can become real if enough people are suckered by it (see Global Warming for a prime example).  Democrats are behind the 8 ball – having said that something must be done by August 2nd to avoid catastrophe, they’d better come up with some thing by August 2nd.  If Boehner can craft a good bill and get it through the House, Democrats may be forced to go along with it.

It could be a very interesting week.