Open Thread

Mark Noonan39 Comments

You realize that its only been five days since the shooting?

Doesn’t that seem like a month ago?

Time is like that – and we are living very fast right now. It is something that the late William Manchester noted in his memoir Goodbye, Darkness – During times of great events and stress, time compresses and seems to go a lot faster. Titanic forces are at work in our nation and it is hard at times to keep up with everything.

The USSS failed utterly. The shooter was seen hours before the event and was marked down as suspicious. From there is just got worse and worse until there’s no aspect of the security set up which didn’t fail. Trump is alive by simple miracle – had he not turned his head at the right moment, he’d be dead. No question about that – I’ve seen the time line videos showing the angles. The shooter had Trump dead in his sights.

The USSS and its parent organization DHS are stonewalling the investigation – not even letting Senators ask questions. This is feeding the files of conspiracy theories with dark hints about the Deep State. It probably isn’t that complex – all you have to do is order the troops to do the wrong thing and give every opportunity for the enemy to act. You think about the Alamo holding out as long as it did but if at any time those inside had simply done the wrong thing, it would have fallen quickly. That’s all it takes – for want a nail, right? I suspect that the ROE the USSS operates under for Trump is so deliberately bad that there was little chance, outside someone disobeying direct orders, for Trump’s Secret Service detail to stop it before the shots rang out. And that would be what they’re covering up…busily deleting texts and shredding documents so that those who ordered the total fail don’t have documentary evidence against them.

If I were Trump I’d start relying far more on personally hired security. I’d have at least some number of people I pay just to keep an eye on things. If someone paid by Trump was involved with security, that roof would not have been empty. No person determined to protect Trump would have missed that.

We all thought after the shooting that the push to oust Biden was over – and it made sense to think that. And, I believe, it was like that for a couple days. The Democrats resigned themselves to losing the White House and while they’d go through the motions of rah-rah for Biden, their focus would be on the House and Senate. But starting this morning the push to oust regained steam…with Schiff openly calling for Biden to step down. Schiff is supposed to win by 25 in a State Biden is supposed to win by 25. He shouldn’t have the least worry and so should have no need to step into a party fight which will earn him enemies no matter how it comes out. But he stepped in – and it can only mean that he’s seen internal polling showing Biden dragging Democrats down. And I mean badly down – like a 10-15 point shift to the GOP in some places bad. Schiff still gets his Senate seat…but if this is so, there will be about five fewer Democrats in that Senate with him.

Biden claimed Covid and retreated back to Delaware. Not the White House: he wanted a place where there are no visitor logs. I suspect over the next couple days there will be some conversations. We’ll see how that comes out – they still can’t force Biden out. His people are in charge of the Democrat party, and the delegates are mostly Biden loyalists. If Biden digs in his heels, it is almost impossible to get him out and it would require a massive political fight to even try..leaving the Democrat party divided and in tatters, maybe for years. So, people are going to talk to him (or, more accurately, Jill and Hunter) and see if some deal can be struck that strokes Biden’s ego enough to convince him to step aside.

Nobody has any idea how that will come out – the principle players in it don’t know how it will come out. We’ll just have to wait and see.

Trump-Vance, 2024

Mark Noonan48 Comments

Gotta say, I was a little surprised – I figured it would be Youngkin. But that might have been my bias: I thought he was best for the slot. But the decision has been made; the deed is done. No sense arguing about it any longer. This is our team: time to swing in behind it.

Vance does have an “American dream” story – he was born into abject poverty with a really bad family life. He rose above that. Very high above that. Even though standards have been dropped, getting into Yale Law still ain’t easy. So, the guy has some smarts. But he also seems to impress people…from working class to billionaires, people have come into his orbit and all seem willing to help him along to the next goal. To be sure, the billionaires do put a note of suspicion on him – but on the other hand, this guy from nowhere managed to get billionaires to back his dreams. It’s one thing when the scion of a rich family gets aid – that is just one rich stroking another. Putting money into a nobody is a risk – and you only do that if you think its worth it.

His wife is also “American Dream”: born in America of Indian immigrants (but much higher socio-economically than Vance), Usha Vance also has the Yale Law degree; they met in college. So, she’s also got some brains. Vance turns 40 next month so he is the youth and vigor for the team – and as he and his wife have three young children that will also strike a chord in a large segment of the electorate. Small side note and totally irrelevant: I’ve created a witch named Usha in Ghost Tower (Book X); she’s alluded to in Home World (Book IX). She is a horribly bad person but also kinda cool in that she can kill people via flames shooting out of her hands. I just hope that Mrs Vance doesn’t take offense!

Vance represents “Flyover America”. That is his thing – its what he’s for. His Hillbilly Elegy was all about it. Another side note: If Trump/Vance wins then for the first time we’ll have an Executive team made up of two New York Times Bestsellers (Trump for The Art of the Deal). I suspect that Vance was picked at least in part for his ability to connect with the alienated in the Rust Belt. Not GOPers – they’re already in Trump’s corner. I’m talking disaffected Democrats.

Within minutes of the pick the Left was out with a variety of hit pieces – I don’t think they’ve fully settled on whether he’s Worse Than Hitler or Hitler Lite, but that he’s some sort of Hitler is a given. Naturally they’re calling him racist (though with an Indian wife; weird, huh?), sexist, homophobic, fascist and all the rest. That “lowering the tone” speech Biden gave yesterday had about a 12 hour shelf life. But, we all expected that – hate and fear are all the Democrats have.

There were, naturally, the Nattering Nabobs of Negativism on the Right. People who wanted someone else. People who are just looking for a reason to attack Trump. Cowards who think we can’t win. I mostly ignored them. They are the people we used to lose with. Trump/Vance is the future; and that is where I’m looking. Can they lose? Of course they can. Anything is, always, possible. But I’m pretty confident it is Trump/Vance getting sworn in next January. Keep in mind: Trump was winning before the debate. He was winning comfortably after it. After Saturday, I think he’s well nigh unbeatable…certainly unbeatable by a frail, senile old creep. That will be as it will: as I’ve said all along, if we lose in 2024 then we never had a chance to begin with. Might as well joyfully enter the battle.

And I am joyful. Probably more happy than I’ve been about the future of our nation for a long, long while. I think we might have the people to actually get the reform ball rolling. I mean real reform; where things actually change. Not just window dressing on failure. There is much work to do – and much risk. The attempt on Saturday is revealing so much incompetence in the USSS that it is easy to get the feeling that they were intentionally inept. The Democrats have not stopped the incendiary rhetoric – and that will just increase as time goes on. Make no mistake about it: they do want a successful Saturday to happen. They hope that by continually stoking the fires that someone will make their dream come true. But the miracle of Saturday also gives me confidence that, as it always eventually does, right will triumph.

Almost

Mark Noonan62 Comments

Just an inch the other way and we’d be plunged into nationwide political violence this evening.

They call us racists.

They call us Nazis.

They call us Fascists.

They call us traitors.

They call us homophobes.

They call us Russian agents.

This is what they did. On purpose. They wanted this to happen. They willed this to happen. And it almost happened.

It is all still very confused – we only know for certain that Trump is ok and at least one poor, innocent American is dead. There are rumors that the shooter is dead, as well.

Who the lunatic was is immaterial in the grand scheme of things. Obviously an insane person. Connected to the Left? That remains to be seen – but the reason this person opened fire is because of the hate-filled rhetoric that has come from the Democrats, Biden on down, without ceasing for years.

In November comes the reckoning.

UPDATE:

His name was Corey Comperatore, 50 years old. Father, firefighter…but, also and most importantly, just a man. A man who worked hard and tried to do the right thing. He’s a hundred different men I know. Dead now because a Leftist lunatic killed him – after years of Democrats saying that Trump and MAGA are racist, Nazi existential threats to Our Democracy. And don’t fall for the MSM spin going on right now – they’re trying to say the shooter was a Republican because of a voter registration document…but the more that comes out the more it shows he was a far-Left fanatic.

We’re still short on details as the government busies itself scrubbing social media and working out their best strategy to distance Democrats from this crime. But there is no real mystery here – a leftist lunatic tried to murder President Trump and did manage to murder Comperatore, and seriously injure two others. Showing the true spirit of America, the Go Fund Me set up by the Trump campaign has already raised more than $1.2 million for the victims.

But that doesn’t bring Comperatore back. Nothing can. His family has lost him forever. This man who was supposed to grow old surrounded by his family is now gone.

(Post edited to correct name – sorry, guys: my proofreading skills are off today)

Open Thread

Mark Noonan40 Comments

I didn’t watch the presser – just didn’t feel up to watching the senile creep. But I guess he managed to say “Vice President Trump” while implying he thought Harris unfit to serve. And something about reuniting Japan and Korea. Something which will comes as a bit of a surprise in both countries.

Right into it the Democrat comments were all along the lines of “this is going well because Biden has such great experience in foreign policy”…which is news to me, you and everyone on Earth. Biden has never been good on foreign policy. He’s grotesquely ignorant of it, in fact. But that a large number of Democrat comments were along these lines shows it was a talking point passed out before the presser. And, of course, he had a list of reporters to call on – which means it wasn’t a press conference but a campaign event.

At the end of the day, Biden has to show the people that he is in great health and mentally sharp. That he didn’t have a debate-style meltdown isn’t going to do the trick. He had to be like the Biden of the 2008 Vice Presidential debate where he was able to smoothly lie his way through the whole thing without a hiccup. He is mentally and physically incapable of that and every time they put him out there looking like a worn out geezer the more frozen the public mind will be on “unfit.”

I still doubt they’ll force him out – there is a growing desire on the part of some Democrats to get him out but the delegates are mostly Biden loyalists. Unless he voluntarily goes, there’s not much the Democrats can do about it – and his pride along with Jill and Hunter will keep him in it. He does not want to be remembered as the man who quit…especially in the face of Donald Trump, whom he hates with a passion. But at this point I’m not sure the Democrats can get to the monotonous unity they normally present for the general election. You know it: where day by day regardless of what is actually happening they all stay on message. We might have leaks and back biting among the Democrats all the way until November.

This is why the GOP wants Biden to stay in.

And how is it going?

Well, the Biden people put out a memo which says, essentially, they’re counting on holding WI/MI/PA…which means here in July their plan is to thread the needle to exactly 270. The campaign trying to do that is the campaign that is losing. Badly. Side note: the MI Senate race has been moved from “Leans Dem” to “Tossup”. Why? Because Biden is proving such a downward drag on Democrat enthusiasm that nobody is sure if enough Democrats will show in November.

Trump VP speculation is rife – I honestly have no idea. I think his team is stirring the pot on this deliberately so that his pick will come as a complete surprise…and, who knows?, maybe it’ll be someone nobody expects? One thing everyone is agreeing on: this 2024 Trump campaign is vastly more disciplined than either 2016 or 2020. No leaks. Message discipline. Prepping for turnout and fraud prevention. Mapping out strategy to hold or take States and, perhaps, move into one or two traditionally Blue States if that seems warranted.

Democrats are trying to turn Project 2025 into something to harm Trump. I think it only works on the most committed Democrats. And that could mean, actually, that Team Pudding Brain hasn’t even locked down traditional Democrat constituencies. We’ll see!

SIDE NOTE: You know how fans love their teams? Well, I found out something – when you abandon your team after more than half a century of sticking with them, the other fans get really mad about that. I became a Padres fan in 1972 when at the age of 7 my Dad brought me to my first game. The Padres beat the Cubs that day. I was hooked. And like a good, little fan I stuck with them all these years. But when the Padres got swept by the Mariners after a two game totally inept and lazy performance, something inside me broke…I just couldn’t be a fan any longer. Honestly, I think it’s that I became a Golden Knights fan that ultimately ruined it for me. Being a Padres/Chargers fan I had long been accustomed to “next year”. Knights got a Cup in six years. I now expect that if I’m going to invest time and emotion in team that they at least try hard. Anyways, when I posted my anti-Padres rant on X, did I get scorched! So, if you do decide to bail out on a team which perennially sucks, don’t post it!

Open Thread

Mark Noonan58 Comments

As of this moment in time, still thinking that Biden remains – he’s really digging in his heels (or Hunter and Jill are) and he is garnering some public support among Democrat electeds. There are still a few Democrats calling for him to step aside but the numbers are small and it can often be seen a tactical: they’re in areas where Democrats are weak and Democrats are always forgiving of Democrats who do what it takes to survive.

I think, bottom line, that its really too late to swap out. Not based on law. Laws don’t matter to Democrats. If they were really determined to push Pudding Brain out, they’d do so and rely on friendly Democrat judges and squishy cooperative GOPers to ensure the new guy is on the ballot in all 50 states. Its too late because getting someone new in and trying to ramp up a national campaign with a new candidate is just entirely too forlorn. Democrats know they are headed for defeat – they could have pushed Biden out 9 months ago, but now it is just too late. On to the end – maybe a miracle shows up, but keeping Biden is now at the very least no worse than hitting the eject button. It is now all about down-ballot. At the moment, most State-by-State polling shows Democrats doing ok – it looks like they’ll lose the House and Senate but only by a few seats in each…but that is the polling. This polling screens for Presidential-year voters…who only show up every four years.

And that is the problem Democrats really have – the Presidential-year Dem-leaners aren’t going to show up in sufficient numbers if it gets into the public mind that Biden is done for. This could be catastrophic for Democrats. If even five million such people become stay-at-homes then what is now a narrow Congressional loss could become a landslide loss…all sorts of Dem House and Senate candidates who are up by even 5 to 7 right now could end up losing. And so I just saw a Rosen (D-NV) Senate ad lauding her for fighting to secure the border; an egregious lie, of course, but it indicates that even with polling showing her substantially up over Sam Brown, the GOP Candidate, she’s concerned about losing the race on the right.

Team Biden is still going with “he’s vigorous as heck!”. In fact, they even have surrogates out there going, “hey, where’s Trump?”. Basically implying that since Trump isn’t on the stump right now, it is Trump who is feeble while the vigorous and manly Biden is out on the trail. Of course, Trump is wisely holding back – while your opponent is self-immolating, just shut up and let him do it. Remember, we’re only here right now because Team Pudding Brain issued a debate challenge they clearly thought Trump would decline. Had they not done that, this would be going a lot differently right now (and a heck of a lot more funny if June’s debate happened in September and it was only at that moment Democrats realized they’re screwed). Trump is naturally delighted with how it went and as he preps for the RNC and the Veep selection, there’s no need for him to do anything.

Especially as the latest RCP average has Trump up something like 3.3. I might be slightly wrong on that – it might be more. But, no matter: as I’ve said – and everyone says – for Biden to have a shot as scraping by with 270 Electoral Votes, he’s got to be up by 3 nationally. Trump up by 3+ puts this entirely out of reach. Trump was narrowly winning pre-debate. He’s comfortably ahead now (many forecasters have taken GA, AZ and NV out of the “tossup” realm and put them “Lean-R”…and an argument can be made that PA is “Lean-R” – and, if so, that is game over). Trump is in the driver’s seat here. Lots of things can happen, of course, but it is also a well-known fact of political life that usually in June the thing is pretty baked in. Takes something really major to shake it up. Unfortunately for Biden, most of the major things that can happen are bad for him (another mental breakdown live, Ukraine being defeated, inflation spiking, that sort of thing).

The French election went as I expected – the Left convinced that squish “Right” to vote Left to keep the “far Right” out. Do keep in mind that when they say “far Right” they mean “middle class French patriots”. It is the same as when they call you and I “MAGA extremists”. Looks like Le Pen’s party actually got the most votes – and by a substantial margin. But by the quirks of French election process, her party came in third, seat-wise. This has caused a lot of heartache on the French Right (as it should) but I tell them to buck up – a decade ago there were like 4 French patriots in Parliament. Now there’s 150. And while the Left is trying to forge a governing coalition (no party obtained an absolute majority) it already looks unstable…with plenty of the squish Right being dismayed that the Left now wants 100% of their program enacted. I expect a good portion of the squish Right to defect to Le Pen’s party…and they might have to call another snap election if a stable government can’t be formed.

The Brit’s, on the other hand, are screwed. Labour obtained an unassailable absolute majority. Moving swiftly they have already announced they will let a bunch of criminals out of jail. Not kidding. This is apparently a high priority for Labour. No, they didn’t campaign on that. The Left never campaigns on what they’re going to actually do. They learned that lesson in the 1980’s when in both the US and UK the Left did campaign on what they wanted and they got electorally wiped out. Since then, it has always been like this:

“We’ve passed the free ice cream for everyone law!”

“Cool! When do I get my ice cream?”

“Ice cream? We’re here to shoot your dog.”

I don’t see how the UK comes back from this – the Labour government is going to import a couple million Muslims and give them citizenship to make sure Labour never loses again. Think I’m kidding? I’ve seen videos of new-minted Labour officials dressed entirely in Muslim garb and with only Muslim flags being waved by the crowds. One does have to remember that Leftists – all Leftists, everywhere – hate their own country and their own people. Its why Labour is rushing through the release of criminals…they want these criminals to prey upon the British people. To the Left, the British people are evil and now they’re going to get what’s coming to them.

War and Pride

Mark Noonan25 Comments

Got into a little debate about the Ukraine War on X – it ended up with me, apparently, being placed on someone’s list of Stupid People. Meh. Not the first time. Won’t be the last. But the crux of the debate is this:

I suggest that it is time for Ukraine to seek a peace deal with Russia, even at the price of lost territory.

The other side suggests I’m an idiot and that this would be to reward a cruel and evil aggressor.

Now, to be fair, I agree that a peace deal which leaves Russia in possession of the Donbas would be to reward the aggressor – this whether or not Putin is cruel and evil (that’s a debate for some other time). But that wasn’t exactly what got me on the Stupid List. We went on and my opponents are quite certain that such an abomination cannot be tolerated – that Ukraine must continue the fight! On and on. Fight! Fight! FIGHT!

To which I responded: well, yeah, they can fight on but to what purpose? The Ukrainians simply lack the physical power to expel the Russians. At this point, all further bloodshed is pointless because it cannot alter the result. Everyone on both sides is now dying for nothing. Presto: I’m on the Stupid List.

After it was over it occurred to me that what is really lacking in the modern world is any knowledge of history, especially of military history. I mean, seriously: the normal course of war throughout human history has been an aggressor attacking and the defender either prevailing or not against this aggression. I will use the closest example to what we have in the Russia-Ukraine War – the War of the Austrian Succession/Seven Years war.

This two part war started because Prussia in 1740, perceiving a weak Hapsburg government under a newly enthroned female Monarch (Maria Theresa) would be easy pickings…so they occupied the Hapsburg province of Silesia. Turns out, Prussia (under Frederick the very-much-so-called Great) got a lot more than they bargained for. Maria Theresa was made of much sterner stuff than expected. She didn’t just roll over – she fought. First round went on until 1748 when mutual exhaustion compelled peace – but a peace where Maria Theresa ceded Silesia to Prussia. She wasn’t about to lie down for that for long and so as soon as peace was concluded she started reforming her realm, rebuilding her armies and forging new alliances for a second round, which started in 1756 – called The Seven Years War in Europe, in America it is our French and Indian War (which, of course, led very directly to our Revolutionary War twenty years later). Unfortunately for the cause of the Just, Maria Theresa was not able to prevail – after seven years of fighting and pushing Frederick and his Prussia to the verge of destruction, luck went against her and she was forced to once again make peace with Prussia still in possession of Silesia. Why did she quit? Because she found that she simply lacked the physical power to compel Prussian withdrawal. She could have kept fighting. She still had soldiers. She could have kept going on and on and on…but it was done. She couldn’t win. It was time to quit. And so she did.

That is what I’m talking about. As long as you have a hope of prevailing, fight. But as soon as you see the end beyond reasonable doubt, it is time to call it quits.

To be sure, history is also filled with wars that went on long after the decision was reached. Most famously was, of course, Hitler’s war where he was ordering his shattered armies to attack when the Russians were a hundred yards away from his bunker. That war was definitely over the moment the Allies got ashore at Normandy – which is why von Rundstedt, asked what to do about it, said, “make peace, you fools”. World War One – the Germans got their peace with Russia in March of 1918. At that point, no longer burdened by an Eastern Front (and having access to Russia’s vast raw materials) their choice was simple – sue for peace with the western Allies. They had no chance – the British/French/American armies and economies were vastly superior to anything the Germans could bring to the field. It was time to quit. Instead, they attacked. Had they quit in April of 1918 they would have got vastly better terms than they got in November 1918. Also, the Confederacy. The Civil War was effectively over with the surrender of Vicksburg and Lee’s defeat at Gettysburg…but it was absolutely finished when Sherman took Atlanta. At that point, it was time to throw in the towel…no possible outcome later would be better than running up the white flag in July of 1864. The loss of lives and property resulting from these wars going on past their decisive moments is astonishing…and the world is a worse and poorer place today because of stubborn pride keeping up a lost fight.

And that is what I’m on about regarding Ukraine. The only ghost of a chance Ukraine has is if an American and/or European army comes to redress the balance. That is simply not possible as the European and American populations don’t want to fight. Ukraine had her chance for victory – had she built up a mobile strike force to attack the lumbering and incompetent Russian army of 2022. She had a second chance once that first Russian invasion was checked – before Russia got her act together. But now it is too late…Russia’s power just grows and grows while Ukraine’s fades away. The Russians don’t even have to be in any way clever…they so vastly outnumber the Ukrainians that they can fix the Ukrainian army in place and just grind it down with artillery. If Ukraine throws up the sponge right now then they’ll get far better terms than if they fight pointlessly until total collapse, at which time Russia gets to dictate terms. And this is without considering the loss to Ukraine’s future in the number of brave, fit young men who are dying day by day. It is just time for peace. There’s been a war. Ukraine has lost this war. End it. Pay the price of defeat. Maybe Ukraine can try again later – that would be up to Ukraine. But for this moment, it is over. Pay the price for peace.

But I think we, being a very sinful people these days, just can’t grasp that concept. Our pride is involved – that is, those who have been boosters of Ukraine just can’t contemplate a future where Ukraine isn’t triumphant. Pride combined with a callous disregard for human life is what has brought us here – and it is very sad, especially as it is expressed by people who not only have never seen death in war, but who don’t even really think about it. That is, the young man who is on the front line…he’s got all the same hopes and dreams that any young man may have and then in an instant, all gone. Never to come back. Lost forever. The people pushing for war don’t seem to think about that – can’t even comprehend it. How precious the blood expended is…how irretrievable the loss. I am starting to think they are very much monsters…and no less monsters than Hitler raving about massive counterattacks from the bunker.

We had that quite moving anti-war song of the 1960’s, Where Have All the Flowers Gone? but I think we need an update to it…the flowers have all turned into stone faced freaks who think of human beings as so many blocks of wood. Not themselves, of course. Oh, no: you’ll won’t find the war boosters in the trenches – but for everyone not them, off you go…grind away. Die. Just don’t make me confront my own failure…

Proud to be an American, Where at Least I Know I’m…Free? Really?

Mark Noonan44 Comments

I’m afraid I got a little triggered this Glorious Fourth – and not by a Lefty saying something stupid about America. Nope, Matthew Van Dyke, the founder of Sons of Liberty International set me off. With this:

The story of humanity would be dismal if America hadn’t set the example of rebellion against tyranny nearly 250 years ago.

Let’s keep up the fight against #Russia, #Iran, #NorthKorea, and any other authoritarian regimes that still haven’t gotten the message.

Happy 4th of July.

So, you’re asking yourself (go ahead; ask yourself!), just what in that would trigger Mark?

The fact that it simply isn’t true.

Don’t get me wrong – America is the land that I love. The Founders were glorious. Or Declaration, sublime. The amount of liberty it ushered in was unique in history. But to say that our rebellion against tyranny set some sort of example is…just not supported by the facts. The very next rebellion against tyranny was in France and within 3 years of the start they were executing people for what we today would call “wrongthink”. For heavens sake, the French Revolutionaries judicially murdered Louis XVI’s attorney simply because he had been Louis XVI’s attorney. And when we take one fight after another ostensibly for liberty from 1776 to today all we really see is a litany of crimes.

What the American Revolution showed is that brave and wise people can be very free – but the follow-up both at home and abroad shows that brave and wise people are rare in the course of human events. 248 years on and we’ve got people who think voting is freedom and that welfare isn’t slavery. Who think there’s such a thing as a “hate crime” and that “hate speech” exists. The descendants of those who fought at Lexington and Concord have not been unanimous in favor of freedom.

So, what am I saying? Toss it all in the ash heap of history? Nope. Not that. But it is time for us, as Americans, to start to have some serious thought and discussion about the ways and means that liberty is to be preserved. We are in a very precarious position right now where a significant portion of our fellow citizens are more than eager to see us enslaved to get their policy proposals enacted. They have power based not upon knowledge and superior argument, but because they promise the stupid to take care of them – and “the stupid” run from a cheeto-munching welfare bum to a tenured professor at a public university.

As per our sublime Declaration, governments are instituted among people to secure their rights, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed. This is dogma. This is America. This is what we must subscribe to if we want to remain American. It is important to note that Jefferson put “secure their rights” in front of “consent of the governed”. Rights are more important than anything, for the free person. If I don’t have my rights, then I’ve got nothing…and that’s no matter how much I get to vote. Like this: if my rights aren’t secured first, then there is no way to obtain my consent to be governed. If I can’t live, if I can’t do as I wish, if I can’t pursue what I believe is my happiness…then I have no rights and thus cannot provide my consent to be governed.

What we have lost sight of in America – and I think all around the world – is this fact: rights, then consent. We’re all about “get that consent and then you can freely violate rights”. No person can vote away their rights – that they might do so out of ignorance, greed or fear doesn’t change the fact that what God gave the human person cannot be justly taken away, even with consent (however obtained). What I believe will have to be done to secure our rights is to make certain going forward that people have less and less opportunity to be prey to ignorance, greed and fear. That if we really want to sustain and fulfill the promise of 1776, we’re going to need to radically understand it was, at best, a third who signed on to it…and they vigorously fought not just the foreign tyrant, but the fellow citizen who did not want to be free. To remain free in 2024 and later, we are going to have to once again battle fellow citizens who yearn to be slaves. To take away the ability of the ignorant, greedy and cowardly to enslave us.

So, Happy Fourth of July! God bless America!

But get ready for the battle – it never really ended.

This Post Grants You Immunity

Mark Noonan39 Comments

I literally missed the Biden statement this evening…I wasn’t really interested in watching but I figured I’d tune in but by the time I did, he was a couple minutes gone. I don’t know the exact time but it was less than five minutes and he took no questions. I did see the video of him shuffling off afterwards and that is just the symbol of his Administration now…a hollow wreck of a man shuffling off to oblivion. Also: who the heck put the orange makeup on? They must have used a trowel. Our Orange Man may be Bad but at least he isn’t senile.

Now, as to the Court decision, itself: precisely what I expected from the start. The non-lunatic justices know enough history to know that if you start prosecuting former Presidents you’ll shortly have no former Presidents. Caesar crossed the Rubicon because his opponents proposed to prosecute him after his term as Governor of Gaul ended. It was kill them or be killed. That is the choice the Democrats want us to face in the future. The Supreme Court at least temporarily spared us that choice. The legal eagles will analyze it but my quick reading of it is that if you can accuse the President of a crime which is no related to official actions, knock yourself out. So, the President taking a bribe or some such. But, very broadly defined, if the President is just carrying out the powers of the office, you’ve got no case…and you can’t even use such actions as a predicate for a case (so, if the President were essentially to bribe a foreign leader to swing over to the US side in a conflict). The case is remanded and Judge and Prosecutor are going to have to figure out if any of the charges meet the Court’s definition. That pushes any trial beyond November…and some have written that it might take until 2026 to bring this to trial because there will be back and forth as the two sides argue details, possibly requiring one or more trips to the Supreme Court to sort it out.

Side note: Nixon is vindicated. It can be argued that his orders to staff to cover up Watergate were part of official actions. Bottom line, this wasn’t tested in 1974 because Ford pardoned Nixon.

I don’t know who’s idea it was to have Biden give a statement – he looked, as noted, terrible. Taking no questions was a bad idea, as well. Not that he could answer them but to have him trot out, slander the Court and then just wander off is very bad optics. I can only assume that the political professionals are being frozen out and this is now the Jill and Hunter show. They apparently believe they can animate this corpse sufficiently to prevail in November.

I doubt that will work – we’ve now got post-debate polling showing Trump ahead in Pennsylvania and New Hampshire and down just two in New Mexico(!). Nationally, the RCP average shows Trump up about two. There are rumors that Democrat donors are nervous, that plenty of operatives are in a funk – and a continuing rumor that Obama wants Biden out but Jill isn’t allowing him any access. That story is that Obama is willing to roll the dice with an open convention (probably on the theory that he can control such a thing and get his favored person the nomination – he’s probably right about this). Meanwhile, other rumors have Whitmer in Michigan convinced that Biden can’t win – and perhaps willing to make prophecy into reality because her best path to a 2028 nomination is a defeated Biden in 2024, thus taking Kamala pretty much out of the nomination picture.

I do lend some credence to the theory that Obama does want Joe gone – because at least part of the MSM is still attacking Biden. This indicates to me that at least some of the Democrat power structure is pressing for a Biden exit and that part of the MSM most favorable to Obama is falling in line. Keep an eye on Hillary – if she starts showing up in the media a lot then we might have a plot afoot to scratch Biden at the Convention if not before. Hillary would naturally be angling for the slot but I’m confident that Team Obama will thwart that. Main thing is that until all the Democrat leadership is on board, you’re going to see elements of the Democrat coalition pushing and pulling in different directions. And these fractures might continue right up to election day.

Joe-Pocalypse

Mark Noonan54 Comments

And this is a Data for Progress poll – they are a pretty good polling outfit but the name gives it away: they are a Leftwing outfit. They always put out the most rosy picture for the Left. In this poll one in five Democrats are more worried about Biden’s senility. One in five! If half of that number just stays home in November it’ll be a political meltdown.

Team Pudding Brain got him to shout semi-coherently in North Carolina for a few minutes the day after the debate and they are presenting this as proof that Biden can, at times, be lucid. They’re seriously running with this: he’s not a complete wreck! The other half of this effort is to sell people on the idea that they aren’t voting for a man but for an Administration – it is “Dr” Jill and Kamala and the Whole Team who have done such wonderful things…we don’t really need Joe to be there all the time.

I have my doubts that this is going to work – voters don’t vote for a team. And the actual crucial consideration here is that in an emergency there is one person vested with Executive authority in the United States and if he’s gaga at the moment, no legitimate, legal order can be issued…but some order would emerge from a shadowy group which does not bear the legal power to issue an order. Honestly, Biden should resign.

But, he ain’t going anywhere. It is my view that the Democrat Powers That Be did press for him to step aside after the debate – it was catastrophically bad, after all. But my guess is that Team Pudding Brain flatly rejected it. And without their active cooperation, there’s no really effective means to force Biden out. Sure, Kamala could try to 25th him but the Cabinet is Joe’s, not hers…very doubtful she can get a majority of them to sign on. And even if she did, Pudding Brain’s people retain under the Constitution the means to fight back against such a 25th action. Unless he dies, he’s their guy. Of course, the thing about Biden’s condition is that it will only get worse – each day that passes brings us closer to the inevitable complete mental breakdown, shortly thereafter followed by death. Think of it like this: if today there is a 5% chance Biden finally loses it, then tomorrow there is a 5.1% chance…and so on. Depending on how far along he already is, we might be pretty close to the absolute certainty that he’s gone. Sure, people like this can have temporary bounce backs: my mother in law came back to us for a couple weeks shortly before she died. We treasure that time and the memories we got out of it before she finally went. But here we’re talking about the guy with his hand on the button. Bit of a different set of concerns.

One thing we’ve seen on the Left since Thursday is the “hey, Joe is a good man but its time for him to go”. This is infuriating a lot of people because Joe is not a good man. Since he entered public life during the Nixon Administration (!) he’s been a liar, a grifter and a bully. He’s never once done a thing which was for the United States or the people – it has all been a continual calculation about how it could advance Biden and his vile family in power and wealth. Do remember that “Scranton Joe” didn’t try to become a Senator from Pennsylvania – a purple State where holding State-wide office requires widespread appeal and a vigorous fight each time around. Nope: Joe shook the dust of Scranton from his feet and went to Delaware – because in Delaware you only need about 225k votes in a Democrat-heavy State while in Pennsylvania you need 2.7 million votes in a purple State now trending GOP in voter registration. It was pure cynicism – it is easier to obtain and retain office in Delaware than just about anywhere else. And then he used this seat just to advance his power and wealth.

The Democrats are gonna try. Biden in his lucid moments will lie. The MSM will continue to be in the bag. But right now, at this moment, if the election were held today, Trump would win – and both popular and electoral votes. The Democrats are the desperate, thrashing people right now. Anything can happen! Keeping in mind that “anything” includes the geezer keeling over (something I rate about 50/50). But I’ve never been more confident about the result…a thoroughly bad man in his dotage is the Democrat flag bearer for 2024 against an increasingly united and enthusiastic GOP. Let the games begin!

UPDATE: Rumors abound this Saturday evening that Biden and team will confab at Camp David tomorrow about the future of the campaign.

First take: he won’t quit. He has too much pride and First Lady Macbeth wouldn’t let him anyway.

Second take: It has been repeated in lots of news outfits.

Third take: At least part of Team Pudding Brain is denying it.

Fourth take: there is now a crescendo of MSM editorials calling on Biden to quit.

So, what’s happening? I’m still in the “I’ll believe it when I see it” camp…but there is clearly an internal war among Democrats right now. There was a DNC call earlier today and we’re getting different reads on it: some Democrats saying it was excruciating and others saying it was all rah-rah for Biden. They’re being pulled every which way. This, by the way, is proof positive that Biden isn’t in charge – if he was, the rumors never would have emerged and if they did they’d be immediately squashed and those responsible for floating the rumors sent into political exile. Can you imagine what Obama or Clinton would have done to any staffers who floated something like this? Democrats have not at this moment decided what to do but there is clearly pressure being exerted on Team Pudding Brain to bow out.

My bet is that its the Money which wants him out – the chances that Biden wins are low and falling. But even if he wins, there’s very little chance he lives deep into a second term. Money buys influence, not a nice thank you letter. The people who provide the cash want someone they can call for favors…and Biden isn’t that guy any longer or, at best, he won’t be very soon regardless of how November comes out. But for the Electeds it is a whole different ball of wax…jump ship on Biden too soon and he takes revenge. Wait too long and the New Guy snubs you. And who is the New Guy? Harris? She’s despised. But she’s also black and female. Newsom? He’s white and male. They likely haven’t the foggiest notion of who it would be if Biden goes. This means that various factions in the Democrat party will be saying this, that and the other thing, often flat contradictory.

So, in other words, this will be a lot of fun.

Debate Night Open Thread

Mark Noonan69 Comments

I admit to having a sense of dread about the debate. Been gnawing at me all week. After thinking it over, I realized why: the concept of seeing and hearing Biden for 90 minutes utterly disgusts me. He is such a thoroughly bad man and such an egregious liar. The thought that he was installed into office is an outrage against all decency.

Like many, I do think it was a mistake for Trump to agree to a debate on such unfriendly grounds. Rely on it, both Biden and CNN will be working from a script they’ve both had for the past week. The questions are known. The signals for where the moderators should jump in to help. Plans already in place to cut away from Biden if he glitches out. If they need Trump’s microphone to “malfunction” it is all set up. The questions will be dishonest and all designed to work against Trump no matter what direction he goes. It is a mistake because it allows liars a platform to lie to the American people.

But, it is what it is. Trump wanted this. Presumably he’s got a plan here. Hope it works!

I doubt, though, that the debate will move the needle much either way. Don’t get me wrong, the MSM already had instant and other polls ready to show a Biden bounce. Regardless of how Biden does, they will straight face announce that all questions of his physical and mental capacity has been answered by his vigorous and scrappy debate performance (and I mean this literally: Biden could pee himself on stage and these pre-set talking points will be used). Meanwhile, Trump will be Trump: the good and the bad. He’s not a very good debater. Biden allegedly is but that is only because the MSM lies for him – he’s actually a quite stupid man who tells the most fabulous lies. But it is up to Trump to make some lemonade here – to place a garnish on the poop sandwich. We’ll see if he’s able to do it.

Whatever the talking points and polling shows, observe the iron-clad Ten Day Rule when dealing with Trump. If in ten days polling is roughly where it is now, then the debate did nothing. My bet is that it’ll be roughly where it is now. And this is especially true if Trump does very well – the better he does, in fact, the more the MSM will cook the polling books to show otherwise. The very last thing the DNC will let the MSM do is show Trump pulling away. As I’ve mentioned before, if in October the reality is Trump heading for a Reaganesque win, the stats will still show it close – perhaps even a Biden lead. This election will be decided by the voters…and it all hangs on whether or not Trump can, as he has before, bring to the polls people who don’t normally show up. If he does, he wins. It is as simple as that. What the Establishment will be doing is trying to drive down turnout…to make it appear as if Biden has this in the bag so don’t bother.

One thing: they might hop Biden up on drugs so much he gets all shouty. That would be a catastrophe for him. Worse than him glitching out for a minute or two. Nobody likes to see old men shouting. It is cringe.

UPDATE: Good, lord that was terrible! I knew Biden was senile and physically decayed but I didn’t realize how badly until tonight! Is this guy even going to be alive in November?

Trump kept pretty solidly to message discipline – the muting of the microphone may have unintentionally helped in here. He was still able to get his Trumpist digs in but he wasn’t able to fly off on weird tangents as he’s prone to do at times. He landed several very telling blows on Biden’s record. As for Biden? His few coherent statements were just lies.