Nervous? I think most of us are – but it is time for calm. Most of the early voting is either wrapping up now or will very soon. Do keep in mind that early vote estimates are just that: estimates. Sure, we can roughly assume 95%+ of GOP and Dem votes will go to the Party…and while we have polling of Indys, we don’t know how they’ll actually vote. On balance, I’d rather be GOP right now than Dem…but until those votes are counted, it is all just guesswork, some more sophisticated than others.
Heard that Harris is moving money from North Carolina to Virginia – if so, then she’s got to draw an inside straight to get to just 270. What such a move means is that AZ/NV/GA/NC are out of reach and so she needs all of WI/MI/PA and can’t lose VA (or NH/MN/NM). And if this is the case then any of WI/MI/PA (or reach States VA/NH/MN/NM) gets Trump to victory. Trump as of this moment appears to have far more paths to victory than Harris.
The Senate looks solid for the GOP – with GOP pickups in MT and WV getting the GOP to 51 (presuming we don’t lose TX – I think Cruz will be fine, but Dems are talking it up as a chance). But the GOP has real opportunities for upsets in WI and PA – with both Baldwin and Casey running desperately away from Harris and the Democrats. NV and AZ? Very much long shots – with Brown in NV having a much better chance than Lake in AZ.
House? Your guess is as good as mine: though I expect a Trump win to drag sufficient over the finish line to get a GOP House…a Harris win doing the same for Dems but with a slightly higher chance that Harris would come in with a GOP controlled Congress if it goes that way.
Naturally, right after I wrote that about Lake, we get this:
It is very much an outlier – everyone else shows Gallego comfortably ahead. But if it is like this, then a Trump win would drag Lake over the finish line. The trend line on it is interesting. And it is in line with the general thrust of polling which shows a shift to the GOP increasing over time.
And that is where we can get to dare to dream big – there is a chance (call it 25%) that we’re heading to a 1980-style result for the GOP. But we’re just going to have to wait and see!
Just had a Sam Brown door knocker to remind me to vote – this is the first time I’ve ever been so knocked by a GOP candidate. If Brown loses, it won’t be for lack of trying. Can he win? Polls say he’s still down…but the GOP is leading early vote by about 29,000 as of last night. Dems will naturally do all they can to erase that this weekend…and I do expect the GOP lead to drop a bit as Dems go flat out…but the bottom line is that the Dems need somewhere around a 30,000 early vote lead to have a State-wide shot (not a guarantee: just a shot – the chance that they won’t be overwhelmed by rurals). It simply isn’t looking good for them.
So, Harris pushed her Texas rally via an appearance by Beyonce’…and the placed was packed. Because, of course, they were expecting at least a bit of a show by Beyonce’…who ended up speaking for a couple minutes and then leaving. Look, I’m not sure that having a bazillionaire entertainer on your side is all that much an advantage to begin with…we’re worrying about the price of food. But to have her just come in and say “yay Kammie” is an insult…witnesses say there were some boos after Beyonce’ bailed out.
Early vote in Arizona can only be described as a Democrat collapse. Sure, both GOP and Dem overall votes are down from 2020 and everyone expected that – with Covid out of the picture, more people will vote on election day…but I’m seeing 16 point shifts to the GOP in early voting. This is catastrophic if it holds through to election day. The latest Dem Hopium is that huge numbers of the GOPers are actually voting Harris and Dems – who have been strong early voters – are now deciding to do election day. This is a theory and it is possible…and if so then we’re all going to be surprised. But I really don’t see any indication that Harris is securing a large number of GOPers nor that Dems are really just waiting until the 5th.
Last night in Game 1 of the World Series a lady wore a MAGA hat right behind home plate. First off: that takes guts. Los Angeles isn’t exactly Trump Country (though a ball game will have a higher percentage of MAGA than the general LA population). Secondly, Democrats melted down about it. They wanted that lady hounded out of the ball park! Meanwhile, Harris/Walz closing argument is that we need to end the politics of division…
Harris was invited on Rogan’s podcast and apparently demanded that certain topics be off limits. Trump went on their and chatted for hours without a note…last I checked, just on YouTube it was closing on 10 million views. I think we know who feels confident 10 days out.
The election news is so positive for the GOP that you seriously start to wonder if its all too good to be true. All I can say right now is: get out and vote. Bring a friend. But not that blue-haired maiden aunt; leave her at home.
The Democrats have tried their October surprise – a claim that Trump praised Hitler. The story is entirely unsourced and even some MSM outfits are treating it as the garbage that it is. I doubt it’ll get any traction – Democrats have been calling Trump Hitler since 2015. You can only do that so long before everyone who’s not a Democrat fanatic just tunes it out. But I doubt this is the last of if – if things are as going as well for us as we think, then the Democrats will just get more desperate as we approach election day. There is no lie they won’t utter – no dirty trick they won’t engage in. Yes, they will cheat if they can – but they can only cheat if its close in crucial areas as it was in 2020. I suspect this won’t be close.
To digress for a moment here: the Democrats and the overall Left don’t even know why Hitler was bad. Even if Hitler had never carried out the Holocaust he still would have been someone who all decent people had to oppose. Hitler was bad because he thought that God didn’t exist and that the State stood supreme over all human considerations. In other words, the basics of Hitler’s evil was the same as the evil of Communism and Fascism…and, of course, the godless modern Left who want total control of our lives.
Harris took the day off yesterday and is mostly taking today off – just a bit of prep work for an interview. And yet her team is calling Trump exhausted. It is very strange how her campaign is being run – and some people are pointing out that Harris has pulled together some pretty bad people to run it. Like they just don’t know what to do. Sending Harris to campaign in Texas is just bizarre. Having her take days off with two weeks left to go is malpractice. If (when) Harris loses, the knives will come out – she will be chopped to pieces as everyone runs for cover and disavows any responsibility.
Anyways, I just hope this proves true: I’m tired of Nevada voting for the idiot every election.
Harris is moving radio ad money out of Wisconsin and putting into rap/hip hop stations in Philadelphia. This is the Democrat woman-of-color candidate who figures she needs to shore up her support among African-American voters in Philly. Make of that what you will. I say it is triage. I think her campaign has now settled on MI, PA and NC as her one and only path. Any one of those 3 goes to Trump, and it is over, presuming that Trump is ok in WI (which he must be if Harris is conceding the State) as well as AZ, NV, GA. If so and she gets all 3 she’s at 276. This is what is known in the betting world as “a long shot”.
But I really view this as an attempt to save downballot. Democrats might have thought a month ago they had a chance to get Harris past 270 but that’s fading and so her campaign is now in default mode – a mode she’s probably not even aware of: she was brought in to save the House and Senate (with the Senate looking forlorn so now its really about trying to get a House majority or at least a narrow enough minority that the Dems can essentially call the House shots).
Side note: something to consider is that her campaign says she’s raised a billion dollars since she got in. Where’s the money? If she raised that much she’s got enough for both Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. There wouldn’t be a need to shift resources.
Unless that number was fake…and/or people who pledged big bucks are now looking at internals and pulling the plug.
All in all, it looks good for Trump. If this works – that is, the Trump campaign strategy, it’ll rewrite the book on how the GOP wins nationally. If it doesn’t work then the nation will collapse. So, no pressure, guys!
An Atlas poll came out Saturday showing Trump at 51% and this means, of course, that ABC puts out a poll on Sunday showing Harris at 52%. Guys, you can’t get results like that via honesty. At least one of the pollsters is just flat out lying. It could be both of them, but one of them definitely is. Given that ABC is ABC, my assumption is that their poll is flaming garbage. But the real lesson here is to never put too much faith in polls – as we’ve seen and discussed for years, even those trying their best can get it wrong. What do we see rather than hear? That Harris is pretty much setting up camp in Pennsylvania. If she was up by six, she would be trying to expand the map, not trying to thread the needle to 270.
Now that we’re past the initial Cat Memes, the Left and Never Trump are saying we were wrong to bring it up – racists, too. Of course. But the crucial aspect of it was to bring to the public mind the real problem: that we’re taking in just tens of millions all at once and it is causing problems. Here’s the bottom line on it – if you are an immigration supporter and think we should make it as easy as possible for people to move here, you’d still be opposed to the sort of influx that Springfield, OH is enduring. It is just too much, too fast. But that the other side of this is not conceding this – and calling us racists for noticing – points to the real problem we have here: a significant portion of the power in the USA wants this to happen. That is, for a variety of reasons, they see mass migration to the USA as a good thing.
It is partially for money; a lot of people make a lot of money just bringing them in. In this, non-profits make, well, huge profits bringing them in. Billions in taxpayer dollars are passed out to non-profits based on the number of immigrants they handle and, guess what?, that means they work diligently to increase the numbers they handle. I’ve seen reports where some of these organizations have had their revenues increase by several orders of magnitude since 2020.
It is partially for exploitation: huge numbers of these people are ruthlessly exploited by corporations, sex traffickers and criminal cartels. They take these poor people and squeeze the blood out of them. Every year untold billions of dollars are remitted by immigrants to foreign countries and if you think even a large percentage of it is winding up in the hands of some poor farmer in Oaxaca then I’ve got a bridge to sell you. Drug cartels run the poorest areas of Mexico…and gangs that chop off heads to send a message aren’t going to pass up the opportunity to steal from a multi-billion dollar revenue stream. One must keep in mind that the most valuable commodity on Earth is human beings. Wars were fought to secure the African slave trade because it was so incredibly valuable. An ounce of gold is great…but an ounce of gold can’t clean up for you. Can’t be exploited every single day to provide unearned income for you.
And it is partially political. Not for nothing have most of these immigrants been sent to Red States. The Democrats are now starting to lose every demographic except upper class whites and black women. The blue collar votes they are losing to Trump and an ever more populist GOP have to be replaced…and that is precisely what they’re trying to do…totally abusing Executive authority, they are bringing in millions on parole, calling them legal immigrants and giving them work permits…but also welfare. And you know darned well that their goal is to amnesty these people and get them voting as quickly as possible.
So, when you’re called a racist for pointing out there are downsides to mass migration, remember who is saying it: ruthless, cruel people trying to exploit the poor of the world for personal benefit. And when Trump wins in November, remember that it was silly cat memes that helped him to victory: never accept the Left’s Narrative. They’re only mad right now because we successfully implanted immigration as an issue.
J D Vance continues to impress – he did 3 Sunday talk shows today while Harris and Walz did zero. He’s articulate, intelligent, has done his homework and doesn’t roll over for MSM lies. He doesn’t accept their premise and that is so very crucial…Trump started down this path but, lets face it, he lacks a bit of discipline in this. Vance just crucifies the lying sons of bitches. He’s going to be an excellent Vice President and we GOPers are going to have a tough call in 2028 choosing between him and DeSantis.
I love how the MSM is all “official sources are denying reports of cats being eaten”…as if anyone believes official sources…or that the MSM’s job is to just repeat the press release rather than checking.
Look, do I know with existential certainty that a cat has been eaten by an illegal immigrant? No. But there is enough anecdotal evidence to indicate it…and it would be rare for a person to call the police to report a missing cat. The place to check is actually the local animal shelters: has there been an increase in inquiries about missing pets? That would tell the tale…but the MSM won’t do that. Why not? Because they are terrified of what they might find.
What is important about this – and why Democrats hate it so much – is that it makes it personal and easily understood by the American people. There was a news report not too long ago about the Biden Administration providing “temporary” protected status for another 309,000 Haitians. We know that “temporary” means “forever” – but it is another 309,000. Meaning there are far more than 309,000 Haitians in country. 309,000 is nearly 3% of Haiti’s total population. Just how many of them are here? 5%? 7%? 10%? We really don’t know – and extending “temporary” protected status to 309,000 means its really extended to every Haitian who can get here…how in heck you going to sort them out? It isn’t like there’s a government in Haiti we can check with…even supposing the Haitian government actually kept records about their people.
But all that I just wrote still doesn’t mean a lot. It gives a sense of unease…but nothing you can put your finger on. Missing kitty cats? That is something. Huge numbers of us have cats. We love our little kitty cats. If someone is doing something to them – and we’ve got enough recent reports to say that things are being done to them by foreigners in the USA – that is horrific…and easily understood. It demonstrates the complete cultural incompatibility of these people. They simply don’t know that you can’t kill Fluffy…nor are you allowed to hunt the geese in the local park. To a Haitian flown from his shack next to an open sewer in Port au Prince to a Section 8 house in Ohio, that goose is just free food…he doesn’t understand. And why should we expect him to? I don’t blame the Haitian guy for seeing the tame park goose as an easy meal…I blame the monied interests who brought him in.
It is entirely killing their Narrative about Dreamers…an already unpopular thing (illegal immigration) has become politically toxic. And they can’t do anything about it – the Democrats, as a party, are committed to mass importation of a replacement population. If Harris were to really get up there and say “we’re going to deport and we’re going to seal the border” then 20% of her vote would to to Jill Stein. The far Left will not forgive such a thing. So, she makes vague statements about providing more funding for the border patrol and getting tough on drug trafficking…which statements are, of themselves, lies.
Gavin Newsom signed a new law to “get tough” on smash and grab robberies. Or, at least, that is how the regime propagandists at the Associated Press described it. But once you dig into it you find out that its only if the robber passes $50,000.00 in theft or damage. In other words, it is the Beverly Hills Retail Establishment Protection Act. Gavin must have got some calls from the rich about how they don’t want their nice little shopping areas ruined…and like a good, little Ruling Class tool, he got the job done. The poor suckers in Compton losing their local CVS and Target get nothing. I think Trump should figure out a way to bring this one up – it so clearly shows that the Democrats are just the Ruling Class and only care about the Ruling Class.
Over on ABC’s Tik Tok account, Trump’s closing statement from the debate is past 23 million views, overwhelmingly positive. Harris’? Not quite 4 and a half million views.
I’m sure you saw that video of Biden putting on a MAGA hat. I’m still not 100% sure about what happened there: was he just senile and didn’t know? Just having a little fun?
Or was he giving a gigantic middle finger to Harris and the DNC for what they did to him?
Nobody despises Biden more than I do but the bottom line is that they did totally screw him. The time to get him out was June of 2023. That’s when Hillary and Barry and the other leaders should have gone to Biden and said, “Joe, we love you; we appreciate all you’ve done and we’re forever grateful…but your fast ball has lost a bit and it is time to bow out gracefully”. Biden probably would have agreed. There would have been a real primary and the Democrats would have someone who could credibly campaign on change…but, no: they decided to lie (with Biden’s cooperation, of course; he is still a rat bastard in his own right) and keep him in only to have him implode…and now they’re stuck with Harris.
Everyone all excited? Ready for this decisive moment?
Meh. I don’t think it’ll be that big a deal.
This can’t harm Trump in my view – he’s such an entirely known quantity that there’s no zinger Harris can use that will redefine him. On the other hand, huge downside potential for Harris here: she has to pretend that she’s not part of the current Administration while making out that her current office has prepared her to lead. And she needs to make the case that while the Administration has screwed everything up, she can fix it. Add in the fact that she’s not a great debater or public speaker and I don’t see this going too well for her: best she can hope for is to do no harm to herself.
To be sure, the MSM articles lauding her performance are already written…they were, in fact, likely written by the Harris campaign and just handed out to the MSMers so that each “journalist” could tweak it a bit and make it seem unique. There will be the flash polls showing that 90% of Trump voters now want to give her a sloppy kiss. Yadda, yadda, yadda.
Polls have been weakening for Harris for about ten days now – and Nate Silver’s forecast shows a good chance of a Trump win. The bottom line is that, at best, Harris is a point or two ahead of Trump in the popular vote polling and is behind in enough Battleground States to get Trump past 270. Its not going well in spite of overwhelmingly positive MSM coverage of her and a massive infusion of campaign cash. But, I guess we’ll see what happens tonight!
So the Cheney family is going all-in on Harris. Some are expecting the Bush family to join in and while this is in the realm of possibility, I doubt it. The Bush family retains political ambitions that can only be satisfied on the GOP side of the aisle as the children of W and Jeb rise in the world. The Bush family is already persona non grata in many parts of the GOP so an endorsement of Harris would finish the family forever in GOP politics. The Cheney’s have no future in the GOP so there was no cost to them for endorsing Harris. But the spectacle of the man the Left compared to Darth Vader being welcomed to Team Harris is astonishing. None of us saw this coming twenty years ago.
But even without an explicit endorsement of Harris by the Bush family, they still aren’t out there campaigning for Trump – and Trump likely doesn’t want them to, given the negative connotations the family has on both sides of the aisle. And that is the sea-change; the political realignment. Cheney for Harris and Kennedy for Trump. The old Right/Left dichotomy that started in the 1930’s is over with for good or ill and there’s no going back. Trump is the GOP nominee because the old GOP betrayed us – every time push came to shove, the old GOP gave in to the Democrats. The remains of the old GOP still want us to give in to the Democrats. Those old GOPers who know we never will are now moving over to the Democrat side of the aisle…while anyone on the Dem side who is sick to death of the wokeness, the lies and the corruption is moving over to us even if on policy they aren’t 100% with us.
Latest rumor being floated by Team Harris is that Keith Ellison, the insane Leftist attorney general of Minnesota, is on the short list for US attorney general. This is done to try and pull in Muslim votes in Michigan and Minnesota…which is something that Harris isn’t supposed to have to do on September 7th of the campaign year. Clearly, her internal polling is not rosy. By this time she’s supposed to be tacking to the center and trying to get to 270…this is a move to the hard left necessary to ensure her base of 226 is still with her. To be sure, if she does win it is no certainty that Ellison would actually be nominated, let alone confirmed by what is almost certain to be at least a 51-GOPer Senate…but if anyone sane needed a reason to vote Trump, this is it. Ellison is an evil man who hates the United States of America. Keeping him out of federal office is the moral duty of all decent people.
How is the race going? Well, back on November 7th, 2020, Trump beat Biden by 74,483 votes in North Carolina. Back then, the Democrat voter registration advantage in the State stood at 391,043. Today? It stands at 128,306. Just as in 2016, I think the voter registration numbers are a gigantic flashing red light…but most political Experts and polling number crunchers are ignoring them…and the few who even mention registrations only do so to dismiss them. But I think its the most crucial indicator of how things are going – the Experts think that 2016 was the aberration…it wasn’t: 2020 was. Covid plus cheating got Biden in, not some swing to the old political norm. Trump now is the political norm. People are sick to death of the Ruling Class, GOP and Democrat. Biden was the last gasp of a dying Ruling Class…and they had to massively cheat to get him over the finish line. And a level of cheating that was only possible in the unique circumstances of Covid restrictions.
Could I be wrong? Of course I can. We’re going to find out! But I suspect at the end of the day a substantial trump win. Maybe 40% chance he wins the popular vote while also securing a 312 vote Electoral College victory.
Now the final push begins. According to some polling, Harris is doing ok. According to other polling, Trump is doing ok. But in almost all polling Trump is doing better than he ever did in 2016 or 2020. Most thinking people put the race as a tossup and that’s probably the best way to go. Always play like you’re a few points behind, right?
But as I said early on, I do believe that Trump’s program isn’t just to get a narrow Electoral College victory like he did in 2016 and nearly got in 2020 in spite of massive cheating…I think he wants a big victory. Maybe even an absolute popular vote majority. In service to that, Team Trump has invested a lot in reaching out to less likely voters – that is, voters who don’t always vote. Pretty much universally among such people Trump is up huge…like 15+ points from what I’ve seen. If Trump can get these people to show – and they do have incentive this year to do so – then all polling is drivel…because especially lately polling has tried to screen for Likely Voters…which naturally excludes people who don’t vote on the regular.
Low turnout election: favors Harris.
High turnout election: favors Trump.
I did find out from some actual polling experts that newly registered voters are counted in Likely Voter screens – the assumption, which I think correct, is that if you just registered to vote then you’re motivated and will show. But I also wonder about the response rate for such voters? Especially Trump voters? You see, someone who just registered to vote with an eye to pulling the Trump lever is probably someone highly suspicious…you know, unlikely to pick up the phone and answer a pollster. This along with irregular voters means there could be a large swath of voters simply not showing up in the public polls.
But what of the private polls? That we don’t know – and if internals are leaked, they are leaked to get us to think a certain way. Looking at ad spending there is no big surprise – both teams are pouring the money into the Battlegrounds and pretty much matching each other. But I note that Team Harris has been spending some time in New Hampshire and Virginia…States which the flip from Biden to Harris was supposed to put out of Trump’s reach. Why campaign in places you’ve locked down? Of course you don’t. Additionally, Harris is now calling in Pudding Brain – his use will be selective but that they have to use him indicates, in my mind, a huge problem for Harris among blue collar voters. We just went through a month of “Joe, who?” from Harris and the Democrats…now he’s back. Looking terrible and sounding more senile than ever…I mean, how desperate are you to think that the Scranton Joe drivel will work again? Especially as Scranton Joe can barely string a coherent sentence together?
I’m also noticing that the lies keeping Harris afloat are getting threadbare…there are just so many of them and they are so obviously lies. It looks like she may have even lied about working at McDonald’s. Remember, she’s the daughter of a rich Commie father and a privileged Indian mother. She tries to talk like she’s just some poor kid but her mother was an oncologist. Even in the 60’s and 70’s, such doctors were making big bucks. She was never poor. Never lacked resources. Wouldn’t have to take a part time job. I thought it credible at first that she might have – earn a few extra bucks, ya know? But now it looks like even that might not have happened. As for Walz, there’s pretty much no biographical detail he hasn’t lied about – and this is before Team Trump starts asking how a teacher managed to afford 30 trips to Communist China. I do suspect that people are starting to see through it all – that Harris is nothing but lies.
I do think Harris will show for the debate. Some people think she’ll find an excuse to back out. But I figure she’s gotta show: no matter how much MSM spin there’d be on it, it would look just terrible if she backed out. How will it go? I’m sure she’ll have her mindless platitudes memorized and, of course, the MSMers will pitch softballs at her…as well as do other things to protect her from Trump. But at the end of the day she’s not a good speaker, she can’t think on her feet and her voice and personality are grating. They’re not hiding her for no reason: if she was even reasonably competent in front of an audience they’d have her out there unscripted on the regular. She’s just terrible at it. She had to bow out before a vote was cast in 2020 for a reason. Of course no matter how it goes the MSM will call it the best debate performance ever seen…but the people will be watching and if Trump is in any way a credible alternative, he’s going to walk away with the debate.
I’m still serene. Confident of victory. Maybe I’m foolish about it but I just don’t have any jitters about it. Perhaps I’m just getting old now and so feel I have less at stake? I don’t know – but I feel great about it all. I’m enjoying this election more than any I’ve ever experienced.
Former President Trump sidesteps his role in Afghanistan exit in trying to link Vice President Harris to chaos
This is the level of lies we’re dealing with – in the MSM’s lie, Trump is trying to pin his failure in Afghanistan on Harris. The hook they’re using is an allegation that what Trump did in office made the Afghan failure happen. This is, of course, nonsense. Whatever Trump did to 1/20/2021, Biden and Harris had until 8/20/2021 to fix it. And that is presuming that Trump did something wrong. He didn’t but it is no use arguing the point – the people in charge when the catastrophe happened were Harris and Biden…with Harris asserting in olden times (like a year ago) that she was the last person to advise Biden on it.
The reason I bring this up is not to show yet another lie but to remind you that they are lying – about everything, including their polling. What we’re being treated to in 2024 is an effort to make people vote based on something 180 from reality. It has never been done quite like this before – even the most egregiously dishonest campaigns in the past at least tried to deal in the situation as it was…here we’re getting people trying to secure your vote by saying “black is white”. It will naturally work with the most dyed-in-the-wool Democrats. Will it work on anyone else? We’re going to find out. I believe it will not work – and, in fact, will prove counter-productive as people get pissed off when someone so brazenly lies to them.
The real state of the race is this: all through the 2024 cycle Senator Rosen (D-NV) has steered away from any mention that she’s a Democrat, has refused to appear with the Democrat nominee and has burnished her image as a non-partisan problem-solver. This is just a pack of lies and according to polling it is working…supposedly she has a comfortable lead over Sam Brown, her Republican challenger. But this morning I saw a new Rosen ad – it explicitly attacks the Democrats for harming blue collar workers with tax increases. Naturally, the ad concludes with her pledge to fight against that but think about the state of her internal polling if she feels the need for that sort of ad. This race is not going as the Narrative says. Not even close.
They’re going to keep it up – they won’t stop. They’ve committed to it – the BS will continue to 11/5. But we live in a world where 46% of middle class workers have cut their retirement plan contributions because of the rising cost of living. That is the reality. That is what people will remember. That is what they will vote on.
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