Campaign 2024

Open Thread

Mark Noonan39 Comments

The Virginia Project notes that someone placed 6,063 non-citizens on Virginia’s voter rolls. This is probably an underestimate of the total but it is what is known for sure: and then asks the relevant question: who did this? You don’t accidentally register non-citizens. I mean, sure, maybe a couple can get in there…lets be generous and say maybe even a couple hundred could slip through a system which is supposed to guard against illegal votes. Six thousand? That’s intentional. That’s a crime.

Of course we know, in general, who: Democrats. But we do want to drill down and find out exactly who – and who they’re connected to. And, most important, who they’re paid by.

Mark Robinson (R-NC) has simply shaken off the allegations and kept rolling along – he’s still expected by all Experts to lose (and he had an uphill battle even under optimal circumstances) but I’m curious to see how he does. If he does pull this off it means the late hit-piece on GOPers becomes a dead in the water thing…because it will show that GOPers and GOP-leaners just don’t care what a pack of liars say. That’s the key metric: if enough people know that the MSM is lying – and they always are, about everything – then they can lie until they’re blue in the face: it won’t work. There is a new poll which shows Trump +5 in North Carolina but I’m taking that with a grain of salt – the State is still so disturbed from Helene that I’m doubtful that really good polling can be done…OTOH, the people most likely to be displaced are GOPers…so, maybe I’m just being a Nattering Nabob of Negativism here? If Trump is up by 5, then Robinson has a shot.

That thing that isn’t happening – Venezuelan gangs taking over apartment complexes – is, of course, happening. Vance nailed the MSM on this – he was asked a couple days ago why he’s so concerned when its only a “handful” of apartment complexes. He crushed the MSMer by essentially asking back, “its ok because its not everywhere?”. That is the way to handle this – to push back and ask the relevant question: in this case: just how much death is acceptable to you?

Open Thread

Mark Noonan40 Comments

I didn’t watch the presser – just didn’t feel up to watching the senile creep. But I guess he managed to say “Vice President Trump” while implying he thought Harris unfit to serve. And something about reuniting Japan and Korea. Something which will comes as a bit of a surprise in both countries.

Right into it the Democrat comments were all along the lines of “this is going well because Biden has such great experience in foreign policy”…which is news to me, you and everyone on Earth. Biden has never been good on foreign policy. He’s grotesquely ignorant of it, in fact. But that a large number of Democrat comments were along these lines shows it was a talking point passed out before the presser. And, of course, he had a list of reporters to call on – which means it wasn’t a press conference but a campaign event.

At the end of the day, Biden has to show the people that he is in great health and mentally sharp. That he didn’t have a debate-style meltdown isn’t going to do the trick. He had to be like the Biden of the 2008 Vice Presidential debate where he was able to smoothly lie his way through the whole thing without a hiccup. He is mentally and physically incapable of that and every time they put him out there looking like a worn out geezer the more frozen the public mind will be on “unfit.”

I still doubt they’ll force him out – there is a growing desire on the part of some Democrats to get him out but the delegates are mostly Biden loyalists. Unless he voluntarily goes, there’s not much the Democrats can do about it – and his pride along with Jill and Hunter will keep him in it. He does not want to be remembered as the man who quit…especially in the face of Donald Trump, whom he hates with a passion. But at this point I’m not sure the Democrats can get to the monotonous unity they normally present for the general election. You know it: where day by day regardless of what is actually happening they all stay on message. We might have leaks and back biting among the Democrats all the way until November.

This is why the GOP wants Biden to stay in.

And how is it going?

Well, the Biden people put out a memo which says, essentially, they’re counting on holding WI/MI/PA…which means here in July their plan is to thread the needle to exactly 270. The campaign trying to do that is the campaign that is losing. Badly. Side note: the MI Senate race has been moved from “Leans Dem” to “Tossup”. Why? Because Biden is proving such a downward drag on Democrat enthusiasm that nobody is sure if enough Democrats will show in November.

Trump VP speculation is rife – I honestly have no idea. I think his team is stirring the pot on this deliberately so that his pick will come as a complete surprise…and, who knows?, maybe it’ll be someone nobody expects? One thing everyone is agreeing on: this 2024 Trump campaign is vastly more disciplined than either 2016 or 2020. No leaks. Message discipline. Prepping for turnout and fraud prevention. Mapping out strategy to hold or take States and, perhaps, move into one or two traditionally Blue States if that seems warranted.

Democrats are trying to turn Project 2025 into something to harm Trump. I think it only works on the most committed Democrats. And that could mean, actually, that Team Pudding Brain hasn’t even locked down traditional Democrat constituencies. We’ll see!

SIDE NOTE: You know how fans love their teams? Well, I found out something – when you abandon your team after more than half a century of sticking with them, the other fans get really mad about that. I became a Padres fan in 1972 when at the age of 7 my Dad brought me to my first game. The Padres beat the Cubs that day. I was hooked. And like a good, little fan I stuck with them all these years. But when the Padres got swept by the Mariners after a two game totally inept and lazy performance, something inside me broke…I just couldn’t be a fan any longer. Honestly, I think it’s that I became a Golden Knights fan that ultimately ruined it for me. Being a Padres/Chargers fan I had long been accustomed to “next year”. Knights got a Cup in six years. I now expect that if I’m going to invest time and emotion in team that they at least try hard. Anyways, when I posted my anti-Padres rant on X, did I get scorched! So, if you do decide to bail out on a team which perennially sucks, don’t post it!

Debate Night Open Thread

Mark Noonan69 Comments

I admit to having a sense of dread about the debate. Been gnawing at me all week. After thinking it over, I realized why: the concept of seeing and hearing Biden for 90 minutes utterly disgusts me. He is such a thoroughly bad man and such an egregious liar. The thought that he was installed into office is an outrage against all decency.

Like many, I do think it was a mistake for Trump to agree to a debate on such unfriendly grounds. Rely on it, both Biden and CNN will be working from a script they’ve both had for the past week. The questions are known. The signals for where the moderators should jump in to help. Plans already in place to cut away from Biden if he glitches out. If they need Trump’s microphone to “malfunction” it is all set up. The questions will be dishonest and all designed to work against Trump no matter what direction he goes. It is a mistake because it allows liars a platform to lie to the American people.

But, it is what it is. Trump wanted this. Presumably he’s got a plan here. Hope it works!

I doubt, though, that the debate will move the needle much either way. Don’t get me wrong, the MSM already had instant and other polls ready to show a Biden bounce. Regardless of how Biden does, they will straight face announce that all questions of his physical and mental capacity has been answered by his vigorous and scrappy debate performance (and I mean this literally: Biden could pee himself on stage and these pre-set talking points will be used). Meanwhile, Trump will be Trump: the good and the bad. He’s not a very good debater. Biden allegedly is but that is only because the MSM lies for him – he’s actually a quite stupid man who tells the most fabulous lies. But it is up to Trump to make some lemonade here – to place a garnish on the poop sandwich. We’ll see if he’s able to do it.

Whatever the talking points and polling shows, observe the iron-clad Ten Day Rule when dealing with Trump. If in ten days polling is roughly where it is now, then the debate did nothing. My bet is that it’ll be roughly where it is now. And this is especially true if Trump does very well – the better he does, in fact, the more the MSM will cook the polling books to show otherwise. The very last thing the DNC will let the MSM do is show Trump pulling away. As I’ve mentioned before, if in October the reality is Trump heading for a Reaganesque win, the stats will still show it close – perhaps even a Biden lead. This election will be decided by the voters…and it all hangs on whether or not Trump can, as he has before, bring to the polls people who don’t normally show up. If he does, he wins. It is as simple as that. What the Establishment will be doing is trying to drive down turnout…to make it appear as if Biden has this in the bag so don’t bother.

One thing: they might hop Biden up on drugs so much he gets all shouty. That would be a catastrophe for him. Worse than him glitching out for a minute or two. Nobody likes to see old men shouting. It is cringe.

UPDATE: Good, lord that was terrible! I knew Biden was senile and physically decayed but I didn’t realize how badly until tonight! Is this guy even going to be alive in November?

Trump kept pretty solidly to message discipline – the muting of the microphone may have unintentionally helped in here. He was still able to get his Trumpist digs in but he wasn’t able to fly off on weird tangents as he’s prone to do at times. He landed several very telling blows on Biden’s record. As for Biden? His few coherent statements were just lies.

Stout Hearts and Into the Battle

Mark Noonan60 Comments

Staring to see a lot of Rightwing dooming and glooming regarding the 2024 election on social media. It is lead by some big follower accounts but it is being picked up heavily by Never Trump. To hear them say it, now that the 538 aggregate has Biden up 0.2 it is all over! Finished. Done!

Let’s leave aside that 538 is the Democrat Hopium aggregate while all other averages and market predictors show a Trump win – is there, indeed, reason to give up hope? Are we finished? Will the Democrats just muscle the old geezer back into office against a hapless Trump who hasn’t opened up enough field offices in Pennsylvania?

Hey, anything is possible. Heck, on Thursday Pudding Brain’s drug cocktail might be so powerful he comes out and tap dances for us. But, absent a miracle, what have we got?

First off, keep in mind that even the good aggregators have it Florida, Texas and Ohio as “likely GOP”. Guys, the Democrats aren’t even going to contest those States. They’re as “solid GOP” as California is “solid Democrat”. But the aggregates don’t reflect this. These aggregates also have NV, AZ and GA as “tossups”. They aren’t. All three States plus NC are “leans GOP”. In fact, in my view, Biden hasn’t got a chance of winning any of those four States…polling has consistently showed him down three to five in all of them for months – ie, people have made up their minds. To be sure, he will battle for them…but Team Pudding Brain knows that this election really comes down to Biden holding PA, MI and WI. Any one of those three go Trump and it is over (with NV, AZ, GA and NC added to Trump’s 2020 we get Trump at 268 electoral votes). What I’m really saying here is that the polling is not reflecting the reality on the ground. Keeping in mind that Biden has to have an aggregate lead of at least 3 (really 4, but lets tamp down our views) to be within range of 270. Even in the most rosy polling, he’s tied. But in my view even the best for Trump polling is underestimating him.

Now, why would I think that? They recently released a Maryland poll and, as you expected, it shows Biden winning the State in a blowout. The RCP average of polls shows Biden up by 23.5. Neither campaign will spend a dime in the State. It will be called for Biden as soon as the polls close; and they’ll make that call without even doing any exit polling. So, what am I up to here? What makes me think that the Maryland polling is good for Trump? Because Biden won the State by 32.9 points in 2020. See where I’m going? In deep Blue Maryland where the primary source of wealth is federal government employment…Biden is bleeding support. Not enough to cost him the State, but a lot. Now, how do you think that is translating into purple States? If the States won by Biden in 2020 just have a 3 point shift to Trump then NV, AZ, GA, PA, MI and WI flip and Trump is at 311. Just do the math in your head for what happens if the national shift is 5 points. Or 7 points. Or, like Maryland, 9.

Now, as a mental exercise, pretend you had never heard of either Biden or Trump but someone told you the relative positions each man was in less than five months before the vote: who do you think would seem in the better position? What I’m getting at here is there is no reason for doom and gloom. Sure, you can have your doubts. You can worry (if you think that will help). But to consider it all over but the shouting? Based on what? Nothing. There is no reason to be filled with a sense of doom. There’s certainly enough good news out there to make you want to get out and fight.

Unless, of course, you’re paid by the Democrats to be a Debbie Downer for the GOP in a psy-op to depress GOP turnout. Because, after all, even the Experts will tell you that the lower the turnout, the better for Biden. This is a reversal from the past when high turnout favored the Democrats.

The real lesson here is to remember that the lying liars who lie aren’t going to suddenly stop. They’ll keep up the lies about everything all the time. They will not give an accurate assessment of the race. They will not allow it to become known that Biden is in trouble. They will not report Trump strengths. If Trump is heading towards a Reagan-style landslide they simply won’t tell us. They can’t. The DNC won’t let them. Even if the Democrats admit to themselves (and more and more of them are) that its over, they’ll still want to keep the money flowing and to salvage whatever they can down ballot. Here you’re just going to have to think for yourself – and painful process for Never Trump and next to impossible for Liberals. But if you want to keep grounded – and even grounded if things turn south for us in the Fall – then there will have to be some mental activity. Some thought about how things are and a heck of a lot of sifting what is being said.

And then, in the end: fight. Hey, if we’re going to lose then we might as well go down swinging. And if there’s a chance – even a one in a million chance – that we can win, fighting is what will bring us the victory…and the more we fight, the larger the victory if we obtain one. It certainly beats sitting around whining about it.

Open Thread

Mark Noonan21 Comments

The Israelis rescued 4 hostages and the world is loud in its condemnations of Israel. Of course. It took them a while to settle on the number, but the claim I’ve seen most consistently is “Israel murdered 200 innocent people to get 4 people back.” Yet another “war crime” by those dastardly Israelis…if you will please just pretend 10/7 didn’t happen and while mourning over the doctor and journalist killed forget that said doctor and journalist were holding Israelis captive. It is all so much drivel. But not all of it comes from the Left/Hamasnik side – there is some drivel from the Right as well. The tut-tutting about how tragic the deaths were and while we’re glad the captives were freed wow poor dead people.

I am really sick to death of this crap. This “war crime trap” the USA and Israel always find themselves in: the enemy is allowed to do whatever the heck it wants while we have to be super-duper careful and even after we have been, we’re still the bad guys. To heck with that.

There are no innocent Palestinians. They’re all in on it. Every Arab 12 and up in Gaza is to be considered an armed combatant. They can surrender or they can die. And I don’t care what they choose. What the IDF did was a glorious victory. They killed the enemy. They freed the captives. There is no bad thing that happened in the event. The enemy dead simply got what they wanted.

Polling is still good for Trump – all of it, when you consider that Biden needs to win the national popular vote by about 5 points to get past 270 – but there is a CBS poll out this weekend which is giving Democrats lots of hopium because it shows Biden doing better in the battlegrounds. Smart people – including smart people on the Left – are pointing out that this isn’t a survey of Battlegrounds but a national survey in which the Battlegrounds have been broken out. They didn’t poll Michigan; they polled Nationally and then separated the Michigan responses out. This is ok as far as it goes – it isn’t nefarious – but it is also a weak poll of Michigan. And, you guessed it, in the Battlegrounds looking best for Biden, there is an over-sample of Democrats. I’m ok with letting the Democrats get their hopes up.

Meanwhile, some people are looking at the numbers and wondering if there’s a possibility that Trump wins the national popular vote but loses the Electoral College? As you might have guessed, they’re saying this is low-probability but possible. I say it is so close to impossible as makes no odds. What I think we have here is a bit of a psy-op; a Democrat orchestrated discussion point designed to get Trump out of the “reach” States…that is, States where he’s a little behind and doesn’t need for 270 (Virginia, New Mexico…States like that). One headline that crossed the TL on X this past week was Team Pudding Brain announcing a major outreach to LGBTetc people. Depending on the Exit Poll for 2020 you look at, Biden won the gay vote by anywhere from 37 to 48 points. You know: not a demographic that a Democrat should have to reach out to in June…the sort of bloc that should be all neatly locked down. But it ain’t. At least, not enough. This is the state of the campaign, guys. And you can think about it: a gay guy in a purple State might hate Trump and the GOP…but he hates that mortgage interest rates are through the roof, food is expensive, crime is rising…most of that like will still pull the Democrat lever in November…but suppose the Democrats only win that demographic by 25 points? That is what I think the Democrats are trying to avoid – having Trump come out to purple area and getting part of the Democrat coalition to vote for him.

Other markers for how its going – Jacky Rosen (D-Zombie Harry Reid) is running for re-election highlighting how she stands up to Democrats. Tester, over in Montana, is in even more trouble and is explicitly saying he fights Joe Biden. They don’t want Biden anywhere near them – and, of course, they also don’t want Schumer on the podium. If Biden were doing well, they’d want his help…especially Tester who looks like he’ll finally come up short (more dicey in Nevada – Rosen is a non-entity but she’s “nice” and will have the remains of the Reid Machine behind her). Last word on it: it is June 9th and we still don’t have Biden’s May fundraising numbers. Trump and GOP are said to have collected $400 million…that Biden’s people are holding the numbers is not a good sign.

Open Thread

Mark Noonan25 Comments

So, they dragged Pudding Brain’s senile carcass to France for the 80th anniversary of D Day. This, as it turns out, was not a good idea.

I can see why they did it. Short speech, mostly photo ops with a few surviving veterans. They probably figured it would be a breeze. But that was before Biden malfunctioned multiple times – including an event which looked very much like he lost control of his bowels, as aged people will do from time to time. Naturally, there were people out there to say it was a bold, vigorous speech showing that Biden is at the top of his game. Not sure how they do that – I mean, I realize these people are paid to lie, but is there no limit at all? We saw the guy mentally check out several times…you can’t hide that. But there they go lauding our Handsome and Charismatic Leader and Teacher.

Everyone is certain that he’ll never make it to 2029…I’m not sure he’ll make it to next week. He really looks just terrible. Some of the 99 year old veterans looked sharper. I mean he looks so bad I’m actually developing sympathy for him…and anger at his despicable family for keeping him at it as he falls apart in public rather than gracefully retiring from the scene. This is actually dangerous – we do not have a functioning Executive. If the poop hits the proverbial fan it could go very badly for us as there will be nobody in the Executive capable of issuing an unquestioned order.

Meanwhile, polls. I had guessed the verdict would lead to about a week of Biden improvement and, man, did some pollsters try mightily to get that – but even vigorous massaging of the data (and D+9 pools) could only get Biden to maybe even. Over the past few days, even that has receded and we’re back to Trump on a glide path to 270…and now with an even money chance, from what I can see, of winning the popular vote. Things can change, of course, and five months is an eternity in politics…but, also, things tend to be as they are. Absent some major event to shake up the race, I just don’t see how the dynamic changes. Nobody likes Biden. In spite of all MSM efforts, they can’t hide his obvious mental and physical decline. In spite of massaged data, things are getting worse in the economy…we see it; we know people who have lost their jobs, who are juggling expenses…and we see it, ourselves, day in and day out. The Mrs and I keep an eye on the Crime Wave – that is, how close the latest armed robberies are to us. We’re in an middle class area of town and it is quiet and safe here…but not as nearly quiet or safe as it was before. And now things that took place miles away towards the seedy side of town are creeping closer to us.

What do the Democrats have? Abortion. Shouting about “Our Democracy” (though in one recent poll Trump beats Biden on “protecting Democracy”). Biden’s X account includes such shopworn issues as “lets give teachers a raise” and “it is time for an assault weapons ban”. Talk about stuck in the past and talking about issues nobody cares about – these days, inflation and the border fluctuate as the most important issues…and Trump absolutely wipes out Biden on those issues. But, what can they really say about either? Not much, and nothing good – and also nothing true.

Steve Bannon has been ordered to serve his 4 month sentence of contempt of Congress – starting July 1st so he won’t be able to play a role in the Fall campaign. Meanwhile, a Texas doctor who revealed that a children’s hospital was medically mutilating minors has been indicted on four counts of violating HIPAA. This is sheer intimidation – it is designed to strike fear into the hearts of everyone who isn’t on the side of the Regime. It is very Fascist. And it has to be stopped: I’m still suggesting our best route is to indict these people for conspiring to deny civil rights. The law is very broadly written and it has teeth (max of ten years per offense). We start dragging these people in cuffs to jail and they’ll finally have some fear in their own hearts…and maybe the rest of them will get the message.

Open Thread

Mark Noonan9 Comments

They got Trump on trial and so he goes and visits a bodega in NYC where the owner was persecuted by the DA for defending himself…large, friendly crowd. To be sure, Harlem is rapidly gentrifying so its not like Trump got popular in the ‘hood…but, still: it is NYC.

Do they get him convicted? Possibly, but I rate it at best 50/50 for them. It only takes on juror to have a mistrial…and the charges are so obviously politically bogus that even a NYC jury might refuse to play along. And it isn’t like the New York government is ragingly popular these days. Acquitting Trump is an excellent way to poke it in the eye. If they get a conviction it is over trivial charges which are likely unconstitutional…so, Trump doesn’t go to jail.

Democrats are crowing that while they have Trump in court he can’t campaign while Biden is free to hit the trail. That’s saying the quiet part out loud! But the fly in their ointment is that Biden can’t actually hit the trail. His latest mental breakdown had him claiming an uncle was eaten by cannibals in World War Two. That was before he warned Israel not to move on Haifa, a city that has been Israeli since 1948. Anyways, the cannibals thing stems from an uncle of his who was in the Army air corps in WWII. The poor man was a passenger and the plane went down in the ocean. One man survived but all others – including the plane – were never located. So, where Biden gets cannibals into this, I don’t know. And the man died before Biden was 2 years old, so its not actually a memory, just something Biden was told about and mangled by his desire that every story about him be the most interesting story there is.

There are some less-bad polls for Biden out there, keeping in mind that to get past 270, he’ll have to get atop Trump by more than 3 percentage points (and anything below 5 is dicey). Other polls show Trump lead steady. Doesn’t really matter. The Mrs paid $4.88 for gas today. If Biden wins in spite of that, we never had a chance. That is, we lost our country ages ago and have just been going through the motions. But those gas prices, those food prices, Biden’s bizarre mental ramblings and increasing physical breakdown, the open border, the crimes committed by illegals, the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine (which is tipping towards disaster, by the way; the MSM isn’t covering it because nothing good for Biden is about to happen there), the sense that nobody is in charge…all of that, and more, is making Trump 2017-2019 shine in retrospect. He’s not nearly as hated as some think.

And if you drill down into the “Biden wins” analysis, it is all based upon a low-turnout election where Democrat GOTV swamps Trump just enough to give Biden 4 more years. Maybe it will be that way. But if its a high turnout election, then it looks like the higher the number of voters, the more Trump is going to get (in some polls of people who didn’t vote in 2020, Trump is up by double digits). Nobody can really know this – there’s no way to know, for certain, who will actually show up. Sure, we can know that a certain number almost certainly will show…but even among the most consistent voters there is some up and down election to election. For those who are occasional voters, its a crap shoot. And as GOP voter registrations continue to improve, we’re getting a class of voters who rarely or never vote. Absolutely no way to know how many of them show – can’t even take a guess at it. The “good” polls for Biden are all D+5 to D+7, predicated upon the GOP just staying home out of disgust for Trump. But if the electorate is R+1, the polls showing it good for Biden are worthless. R+2 or 3? Political earthquake.

More trouble in the House. MAGA blames RINOs, RINOs blame MAGA. There is blame to go around – and MAGA does need to get a larger sense of the possible here, especially with a razor thin majority. But most of the blame must lay at the Speaker’s feet. The Speaker has immense power in the House – Democrats made sure of that over the years. You’ll note that when Nancy was running the show, nothing good for GOPers ever got to the floor. Johnson can do that, too. Democrats can pass whatever they want through the Senate given their majority and our RINOs, but Johnson can pretty much spike anything unless he gets what he wants. And his job was to get us something. We know with a Democrat Senate and White House we’re going to have to put up with huge amounts of Commie garbage. Way of the world, GOP. Do better at the next election. But we did win the House…and that means every bit of Commie garbage should have something MAGA attached to it – if Democrats get money for an NGO to send migrants to the border, then we get money to pay for Texas to build a fifty foot high wall. Like that – and so on and so on. But we got nothing. We always get nothing. And Johnson and the RINOs are smart enough to know that if we don’t get something, there will be trouble. If Johnson falls – and even if we get a Democrat Speaker – then let the lesson be learned: don’t betray the GOP base. Make certain to stroke us. This is the growing pains of a new GOP, guys. Don’t get too upset about it. In the 1850’s the House was a complete mess because the new GOP also hadn’t figured itself out and so essentially handed power to Democrats. It takes time to change.

Open Thread

Mark Noonan41 Comments

The polls are tightening! Biden is surging!

Or, so goes the conventional wisdom. And, hey, there might be some tightening as the primaries end and everyone sorts themselves out on partisan lines. But, there also seems to be in the latest raft of polls some significant oversampling of Democrats. Maybe the earlier polls oversampled Republicans? Could be. But as we’ve said here for years now, don’t put your faith in polls. 2016 was the definitive year on that – wasn’t it something like a 97% chance Hillary would win based on polls? This, I think, is far more decisive:

Except for a very slight uptick in Colorado (which was probably out of reach for us all along), this is a catastrophic collapse for the Democrats. And keep in mind that this shift happened while the GOP was largely run by anti-Trump GOPers who were diligently trying to finish off the whole MAGA movement. This is registration gains in spite of deliberate RNC incompetence. This is people looking at their nation and saying, “we’ve got to do something!”. Not that the GOP is great, but it is the only way to stop the increasingly insane Democrats.

I think that the Biden vs Trump rematch will revolve around the fact that here in 2024 there is no longer any mystery about Biden. Even discounting cheating to get him into the White House, the thing about him was supposedly boring and conventional. That there would be no massive policy changes and we’d coast along in peace and quiet after the alarms of the Trump years. That might have been the plan – in his lucid moments, it was probably what Biden wanted – but given that he is increasingly senile, his aides are running wild, imposing ever more far Left lunacy without a shred of legal power to do so. Biden can’t hide behind a Narrative any longer – he sucks. And the price of food and gas are through the roof. I expect at this moment a 49% to 47% Trump victory. Keep in mind, of course, that anything less than a 3+ point Biden win in the popular vote works out to a Trump electoral victory. Basically, Biden has to get above 50% to win because I can’t see Trump getting less than 47%.

Team Pudding Brain has pretty much abandoned Israel. They tried for a while to triangulate support for Hamas and Israel but the Muslim voters they count on aren’t having it – they demanded abandoning Israel and that’s what they’re going to get. Nothing matters to the Democrats more than winning and if they have to hate Israel to get a win, they’ll do it. Don’t put too much stock into this for us as a Party – most Liberal Jews are Liberals first and last…they are just Jews by descent for the most part; they’ll swallow the insult. Orthodox Jews were already moving towards us. This will accelerate that and it might mean a House seat or two but nothing decisive for 2024.

And it is just disgusting what they are doing. Hamas already has a plan written up for what comes after they kill all the Jews of Israel. Plans for what happens to Jewish property. All neatly typed up and ready to go. There are genocidal maniacs in this conflict; its just that they’re all Muslims. I do worry that Israel is losing the will to finish the job. Anything short of the total destruction of Hamas will be an Israeli defeat, and perhaps an ultimately fatal one. A nation can’t afford to have something like Hamas as a living enemy. I did hear the theory that they are just hunkering down and waiting for November’s result. This could be true. Biden’s people do have a lot of control over deliveries of war materials to Israel and so can exert a lot of pressure…pressure the Israeli’s know will end with Trump’s victory. But that is also a long time from now. Its all very murky at the moment.

Did you notice that the MSM was 24/7 eclipse for a while? I did. Lots of people did. Personally, I think it was to deflect attention away from Trump’s statement on the abortion issue. This is crucial. What he said did upset some pro-Lifers but the pragmatic facts of life are that a majority of Americans currently want abortion legal, at least through the first trimester. We just can’t get around that. Took 50 years of relentless pro-abortion propaganda to get us here and we won’t undo that in a day. It will take decades for us to build a culture of life – and we can’t do that if for purity’s sake we turn all power over to the fanatic pro-abortion Democrats. We have to take what we can get – that was Trump’s essential message. And it is a message Democrats want to bury because their whole Fall campaign is going to be “Trump wants to ban abortion” as a means of scaring upper class urban/suburban white women. Trump does need to get out in front of this – my view is that our failure to do so in 2022 cost us at least 3 Senate and a dozen House seats. Failure to address abortion squarely turned a Red Wave into a Red Trickle. Trump is doing the right thing here; nobody likes a coward so lets be a bit brave and say what we want.

Team Pudding Brain is also cooking up more illegal plans to annul student debt. You can get mad about it, if you like, but it is what it is. They’re playing to win. Those on our side who are all “pay your bills” are simply not getting it. In 2024, some votes have to be purchased. As I said years ago we should have been out in front on this one – and casting it as “Democrats enslaved you to college debt and we freed you from it”. If not cancellation, then at least make it dischargable in bankruptcy. And put the colleges on the hook for at least some of it. Tax college endowments to pay for low income college. So much we could have done and we just blew it. I’m hopeful that Trump comes up with something along these lines. There’s already indicators that youth is prepared to abandon the Democrats…we just need something to tip them.

Open Thread

Mark Noonan44 Comments

We were all wondering when it first came out if it were an April Fool’s joke, but it does appear that Biden is denying he proclaimed trans visibility for Easter. Now, to be sure, one must think carefully about this: the Party Line on it now is that the day has been around since 2009 and it just happened to fall on Easter…and, hey, isn’t this just as important as the observation of the resurrection? So, it might be just on that level that Biden is denying he made it happen – that he was just rote doing what you’re supposed to do on national observations that we all participate in. Because, you know, we all can’t wait for trans day of visibility to roll around each year.

That, of course, is actually damage control: someone decided that Biden and the rest of the Democrats would make a to do about trans on Easter as a malicious insult…and they thought that our outrage would get blowback that would work to Democrat advantage. When it was actually done – when the thing was in the public square – they suddenly realized how absolutely hideous it was and now they’re trying to back and fill.

My advice: forget the polls. They are going to fluctuate a bit back and forth. Carter had a 7 point lead in Gallup in April of 1980. Dukakis was down 2 in April of 1988, up 16 in May. On and on like that. This is what I think is the real dynamic of 2024: that people are just getting sick of it all. The trans on Easter thing is just another element in a large tapestry of things people just don’t like about the Biden years. The biggest thing will remain the price of gas and groceries but in all respects, just nothing is going right. That is why Democrats are now pinning their hopes on abortion: they just managed to get a pro-abortion amendment on the Florida ballot. They’ll do that in as many States as they can. Trust me on this: by September it’ll be 24/7 abortion. It did work partially in 2022. Will it work again? I doubt it. If it does then it means we never had a chance, anyway: if America returns Biden to office just to make sure children can be killed, then we’re out of the political market altogether. But outside a desperation move like that, there’s nothing Biden and the Democrats can do – any policy that would actually fix the problems they’ve created (notably reducing spending to cut inflation and closing the border to stop illegal immigration) is opposed by too large a part of the Democrat base. They are caught in a bind and can only hope that something else gets them out of it. Abortion is something else. So, too, things like trans day of visibility…but that has already backfired.

People are tired. Biden was supposed to be a placeholder. The Not Trump. He wasn’t supposed to do anything but end Covid and then let things coast until someone else got in. But they forgot he is senile – and when not senile, stupid. He isn’t running the show. He lacks the wit or will to ride herd on the far left like Obama and Clinton did. Thus the far left is setting the policy – but nobody ever voted for the far left. The more they do, the worse it gets for Biden.

Louis Conter, the last survivor of the USS Arizona, passed away. He was 102. God bless the man. Almost all the WWII vets are gone. Korean vets, too. The old soldier you see these days is likely a former 19 year old Marine from Vietnam, 1967.

Trump Rolls On

Mark Noonan66 Comments

Nine to nothing; that was a bit surprising in that I thought at least 1 or 2 of the liberals would stick by their party on the ruling. But, honestly, it would have been a tough pill for even the most ardent liberal Justice to swallow: the 14th, if it even applies, is a federal matter subject only to federal law. To disqualify anyone from the ballot would take a federal conviction…and even that wouldn’t necessarily stop a State from placing the convict’s name on the ballot. The Constitution gives the States great control over the manner of choosing Electors. It would be a very bizarre thing if we ever had a situation where someone who had been convicted under the 14th secured 270 electoral votes for President. But the issue only comes up after a conviction in federal court.

Think about that.

A DC jury would convict Trump on command of any charge filed. Zero doubt. You could charge him with being a vampire and DC jury would find him guilty. And yet not only has Trump not been charged with insurrection or any similar sort of act, but neither has anyone else involved in J6. What does that tell you? That the Powers That Be understand that such a charge would be tossed on appeal…perhaps even on the liberal-dominated DC Circuit. The Democrats know they can’t even take the first step on using the 14th against him, even in theory.

So, why all the fuss? Honestly, it was just to fill the empty heads of #Resistance liberals. To make it seem like something is being done. Remember, those types of people believe that Trump really is a Russian agent and that Putin flipped votes in 2016 to get him elected. Not kidding: they believe the whole thing from start to finish. Doesn’t matter that every fact shows the accusations are false: it is what they were told and to this day the MSM has never admitted that they participated in a lie. These people sit around wondering all day long “when will they get Trump?”. This was one in a series of efforts to “get Trump”. It failed; but they’ve already got other arrows in the quiver. These are all falling apart one by one, but it looks like there’s enough to keep it going until after Election Day.

All polls must be taken with a grain of salt, but as I’ve always said, they can be useful in spotting trends. Right now, an outlier or two aside, all polls are indicating a Trump win – with 47 to 49 percent of the vote, with 49 percent working out to an electoral college triumph; maybe as high as 327 Electoral Votes. Get above 50 percent and Trump will head towards 350. That is, of course, now; 8 months out. Lots can change. The trouble for Team Pudding Brain is that things can’t change for the better. Inflation is likely to rise again at least near term. Job losses (especially full time) are mounting. The border remains open. Crime continues to rise. Nothing Team Pudding Brain can do will reverse this because they are ideologically committed to the policies that are causing all the trouble. The only new wrinkle is the increasing hostility to Israel…a gambit to keep Muslim voters on side with a huge downside risk of losing the Jewish vote, which is nearly as large and could easily tip a State or two to Trump. Maybe a miracle happens…but even if things start to get better in spite of Biden, the fact remains that Biden is increasingly mentally and physically feeble. Six months from now he’ll just be worse; all of us who have dealt with aging relatives know how this works…once they start downhill, it just accelerates. Biden is clearly heading downhill.

Will they replace him? Only if he’s dead. His people now have sufficient control over the levers of Democrat power that it is almost impossible to displace them. A full court press by Teams Obama and Clinton might do it, but even that would only make it 50/50. Of course, he might very well die; what sort of chaos ensues if that happens after early voting has commenced is anyone’s guess. But probably there isn’t urgency among Democrats to replace him. To them, its a simple calculation: in the unexpected event that Biden wins, then all is good…if he loses, they figure Trump will have a bad 2026 midterm and with an open seat in 2028 the Democrats would think they’re favored to win it. Democrats are actually confident that they can keep Trump boxed in for 4 years just as they did before.

This doesn’t mean they won’t cheat. Of course they’ll cheat. Massively. They always do. But there is a limit to what cheating can do, and in Georgia and Wisconsin cheating is now a heck of a lot harder than it used to be. Nevada, too, as we have a GOP governor. And cheating only works if you have total control in the exact areas you need it. Trump gets to 49% and they’d just have too large a task on their hands.

I rate the odds as 55/45 in Trump’s favor right now. Subject to modification as conditions change over the next 8 months.