Just had a Sam Brown door knocker to remind me to vote – this is the first time I’ve ever been so knocked by a GOP candidate. If Brown loses, it won’t be for lack of trying. Can he win? Polls say he’s still down…but the GOP is leading early vote by about 29,000 as of last night. Dems will naturally do all they can to erase that this weekend…and I do expect the GOP lead to drop a bit as Dems go flat out…but the bottom line is that the Dems need somewhere around a 30,000 early vote lead to have a State-wide shot (not a guarantee: just a shot – the chance that they won’t be overwhelmed by rurals). It simply isn’t looking good for them.
So, Harris pushed her Texas rally via an appearance by Beyonce’…and the placed was packed. Because, of course, they were expecting at least a bit of a show by Beyonce’…who ended up speaking for a couple minutes and then leaving. Look, I’m not sure that having a bazillionaire entertainer on your side is all that much an advantage to begin with…we’re worrying about the price of food. But to have her just come in and say “yay Kammie” is an insult…witnesses say there were some boos after Beyonce’ bailed out.
Early vote in Arizona can only be described as a Democrat collapse. Sure, both GOP and Dem overall votes are down from 2020 and everyone expected that – with Covid out of the picture, more people will vote on election day…but I’m seeing 16 point shifts to the GOP in early voting. This is catastrophic if it holds through to election day. The latest Dem Hopium is that huge numbers of the GOPers are actually voting Harris and Dems – who have been strong early voters – are now deciding to do election day. This is a theory and it is possible…and if so then we’re all going to be surprised. But I really don’t see any indication that Harris is securing a large number of GOPers nor that Dems are really just waiting until the 5th.
Last night in Game 1 of the World Series a lady wore a MAGA hat right behind home plate. First off: that takes guts. Los Angeles isn’t exactly Trump Country (though a ball game will have a higher percentage of MAGA than the general LA population). Secondly, Democrats melted down about it. They wanted that lady hounded out of the ball park! Meanwhile, Harris/Walz closing argument is that we need to end the politics of division…
Harris was invited on Rogan’s podcast and apparently demanded that certain topics be off limits. Trump went on their and chatted for hours without a note…last I checked, just on YouTube it was closing on 10 million views. I think we know who feels confident 10 days out.
The election news is so positive for the GOP that you seriously start to wonder if its all too good to be true. All I can say right now is: get out and vote. Bring a friend. But not that blue-haired maiden aunt; leave her at home.
The Democrats have tried their October surprise – a claim that Trump praised Hitler. The story is entirely unsourced and even some MSM outfits are treating it as the garbage that it is. I doubt it’ll get any traction – Democrats have been calling Trump Hitler since 2015. You can only do that so long before everyone who’s not a Democrat fanatic just tunes it out. But I doubt this is the last of if – if things are as going as well for us as we think, then the Democrats will just get more desperate as we approach election day. There is no lie they won’t utter – no dirty trick they won’t engage in. Yes, they will cheat if they can – but they can only cheat if its close in crucial areas as it was in 2020. I suspect this won’t be close.
To digress for a moment here: the Democrats and the overall Left don’t even know why Hitler was bad. Even if Hitler had never carried out the Holocaust he still would have been someone who all decent people had to oppose. Hitler was bad because he thought that God didn’t exist and that the State stood supreme over all human considerations. In other words, the basics of Hitler’s evil was the same as the evil of Communism and Fascism…and, of course, the godless modern Left who want total control of our lives.
Harris took the day off yesterday and is mostly taking today off – just a bit of prep work for an interview. And yet her team is calling Trump exhausted. It is very strange how her campaign is being run – and some people are pointing out that Harris has pulled together some pretty bad people to run it. Like they just don’t know what to do. Sending Harris to campaign in Texas is just bizarre. Having her take days off with two weeks left to go is malpractice. If (when) Harris loses, the knives will come out – she will be chopped to pieces as everyone runs for cover and disavows any responsibility.
Anyways, I just hope this proves true: I’m tired of Nevada voting for the idiot every election.
Harris is moving radio ad money out of Wisconsin and putting into rap/hip hop stations in Philadelphia. This is the Democrat woman-of-color candidate who figures she needs to shore up her support among African-American voters in Philly. Make of that what you will. I say it is triage. I think her campaign has now settled on MI, PA and NC as her one and only path. Any one of those 3 goes to Trump, and it is over, presuming that Trump is ok in WI (which he must be if Harris is conceding the State) as well as AZ, NV, GA. If so and she gets all 3 she’s at 276. This is what is known in the betting world as “a long shot”.
But I really view this as an attempt to save downballot. Democrats might have thought a month ago they had a chance to get Harris past 270 but that’s fading and so her campaign is now in default mode – a mode she’s probably not even aware of: she was brought in to save the House and Senate (with the Senate looking forlorn so now its really about trying to get a House majority or at least a narrow enough minority that the Dems can essentially call the House shots).
Side note: something to consider is that her campaign says she’s raised a billion dollars since she got in. Where’s the money? If she raised that much she’s got enough for both Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. There wouldn’t be a need to shift resources.
Unless that number was fake…and/or people who pledged big bucks are now looking at internals and pulling the plug.
All in all, it looks good for Trump. If this works – that is, the Trump campaign strategy, it’ll rewrite the book on how the GOP wins nationally. If it doesn’t work then the nation will collapse. So, no pressure, guys!
Prior to the allegations against Mark Robinson he was trailing in the polls – which makes you wonder why bring up the allegations in a race that, supposedly, the Democrat was cruising to victory in. Especially six weeks in advance. That sort of story is a kill-shot story to be used in the last week of a campaign so that the target simply lacks the time to respond. After the story came out, Robinson addressed it with a denial…and then moved on. Over this past week he’s been front and center in North Carolina organizing aid for the Helene victims. Talking up love, peace and unity. Its all been great. How’s he polling? Well, even if someone gives you a North Carolina poll, toss it straight into the trash…the State cannot be effectively polled right now as too large a part of it simply can’t be polled.
The fact that the story came out so far in advance – and far enough in advance where the State GOP could have inserted a new candidate – tells me that the polling wasn’t telling the story. It couldn’t be. It wouldn’t have gone like it did if polling was accurate. If you’ve got a ten point lead – as polling said the Democrat did – then you just relax and go on cruise control, more fearful of making a last-minute mistake than anything your opponent is doing. I think that it was a lot closer than polling suggests. That the polls showing Trump up narrowly and Robinson down ten were massively understating GOP support. That’s why you do the hit piece on Robinson. You’re desperately afraid of losing.
But why be so afraid?
I mean, if the Democrats win the NC governorship, its a hold. Democrat replacing Democrat. The GOP will almost certainly control the legislature by large majorities…and with Presidential year turnout, it might be super-majorities again. The governorship of North Carolina was also stripped of some key powers by the GOP legislature. It isn’t that much of a political prize. And Harris’ path to victory doesn’t really go through North Carolina. That is, losing it isn’t at all fatal and if she’s winning it, she’s probably winning big enough elsewhere that North Carolina just doesn’t matter. So, what gives?
The fact that Robinson, after the hit piece dropped, made a brief statement and then moved on. Team Trump never even addressed it. The MSM was rife with stories about how the GOP was in a panic about it, but none of that panic emerged in actions other than Robinson’s RINO staffers bailing out, merely to be replaced by far more rock-ribbed MAGA types. This terrifies the Democrats – that we’re getting candidates and becoming a party that no longer cares what they think. For 80 years every time the Democrats shouted “jump” the GOP asked “how high?”. Not like that any more. We all recognize the damaging nature of the accusation against Robinson but we just don’t care. If the whole thing is true, he’s still the intellectual and moral superior to the Democrat. You can’t get more vile than Democrats these days. They are disgusting liars and any appeal to morality they make is mere hypocrisy. If Robinson loses then that will be lousy but he’s not going to lose because we abandoned him at the behest of sick pro-aborts indicting him on a morals charge.
It isn’t just losing in North Carolina – or nationally – that frightens Democrats. It is who they will lose to. They’re not going to lose to a Bush who will then reach across the aisle to his good friend, Nancy Pelosi. They’re going to lose – to Trump and other MAGA types – to people who don’t care what they think. People who have no friendship or loyalty to them. No loyalty to the system, either. People who have been targeted with disgusting, illegal efforts to destroy them (earlier in the campaign, Robinson and his wife were forced to address the issue that before they married, they had come up pregnant and had opted for abortion…think about how many laws Democrats had to break to find that painful bit of information). We can’t even begin to list all the laws the Democrats have broken to get after Trump…and not just Trump, of course, but anyone who seems an effective surrogate for Trump (it looks like Musk’s Starlink wasn’t immediately available in North Carolina because Biden Administration efforts to hamstring Starlink…all done simply because Musk purchased Twitter and wouldn’t let Democrats censor the Right any longer).
The top of the ticket is, of course, the real fear – that Trump will win and go on a rampage. We hope! But the larger Democrat fear is that all up and down in both elective and appointive office they’ll find people who do not care what Democrats want. Who won’t take their calls. Just won’t be moved to do their bidding. They’ve got this huge power structure in the USA and it is all ultimately dependent upon government money and power…if they don’t have the power they can’t get the money. That is, if they can’t call up a bureaucrat and get their wish, nobody will give them money…which means even fewer people will take their calls and so on in a vicious, power-draining cycle. They’ll still be able to get on CNN to complain about it, but nobody watches CNN. They’re staring at this fate and I do believe they are starting to panic.
They see things like at least 55,000 people showing up in Butler yesterday (this is the number of unique cell phones present – the total number of attendees was certainly significantly larger) and it terrifies them. At least 20,000 of those attendees had never attended a Trump rally before. Harris is set to go on The View and issued a statement lauding American aid to Lebanon. These are the actions of a candidate losing support among core constituencies (that is, only Muslim Americans will be pleased with aid to Lebanon and only upper class urban/suburban women watch The View). Tammy Baldwin refused to campaign with Harris. Tester is running away from the Democrats as fast as he can (it won’t be fast enough). There are deep fears among Democrats about the Pennsylvania Senate race. Early and mail voting continues to be depressing for Democrats as the numbers just aren’t there while the GOP is doing better in both than ever before. We could be at the start of a cascade preference.
Time will tell! But I’m feeling good. I love the smell of Democrat panic in the morning – and I love the new GOP which no longer cares what Democrats think.
Trump went to New York for a rally and a lot of people are puzzled by that – with the puzzlement ranging from “he’s an idiot wasting time” to “he’s gonna flip New York!”. Neither are correct but that we’re getting that wide a variance indicates that one of the main things about the 2024 cycle is the lack of thought people are putting into it.
As I’ve been saying for years, Trump reads from a script. It seems spontaneous – and he has the talent to insert genuine spontaneity to his public appearances – but it is all very carefully planned. Guys who earn billions of dollars off of real estate don’t do things on the fly. They can’t. There’s too many moving parts and too many things that can go wrong. So, you plan. Here in 2024, Trump is working from a plan. This plan appears to have been thought out within weeks of the Presidency being declared for Biden. I doubt there was a moment’s doubt in Trump’s mind that he was going to try again (though I suspect that Melania was a voice against it; not that she’s not supportive, but I get the sense that she thinks it a burden…though I’ve detected a switch to steely determination since the assassination attempts). The first step in this plan was to keep “Stop the Steal” alive.
This was nearly universally derided by everyone outside Trump’s orbit (and I’ll bet dollars to donuts plenty of people inside it urged against it). Even I thought for a short while he should drop it…but he kept it up. A rolling, steady drumbeat about the questionable actions. And that formed the basis for his 2024 primary campaign – which he was supposed to lose as a GOP electorate, tired of Trump’s “tirades” about 2020 switched over to a new standard bearer. But a funny thing happened – it worked. Mostly because the Democrats walked right into it…opting for lawfare which merely solidified in the GOP base’s mind that the steal was real (not that we needed much urging – we could see it). The fatal moment for those who wanted to replace Trump atop the ticket, turns out, was their failure to condemn in no uncertain terms the 2020 result. That became the litmus test – the only thing which could tell a GOP base voter that a candidate was reliable. We all knew there was fraud. It was obvious…to not condemn it and seek to alter the system bespoke a desire to please the Establishment rather than us…and so Trump cruised to a win in the primaries.
You have to sort of review all that in your mind – the events from December 2020 to the time Trump was indicted. Once you look at it in hindsight, you can see the plan. “Stop the steal” rhetoric kept the base on Trump’s side…and positively goaded the Democrats into ever more extreme actions. They knew they had used fraud to get Biden in…but what stuck in their craw was Trump not politely rolling over on it. Nothing angers a liar than being called out on it. You can just see it got under their skin…probably most of all under Biden’s. Of course, the ever more extreme actions just solidified Trump’s position in the GOP…while the totally absurd nature of the lawfare started to generate some sympathy for Trump outside his base voters. I mean, seriously: dragging Trump into court in New York because a clearly insane woman wanted to use a law written just for her to sue Trump for assault was ridiculous…and outside far left partisans, everyone could see it was ridiculous. The rest of the cases were no less silly. And they all have worked out to Trump’s advantage.
I don’t know if Trump counted on wiping Biden out in a debate. But he sure leaped at the first opportunity, didn’t he? Everyone said it was a huge mistake – Trump was walking into a trap. But here’s what we can see in hindsight: for all of Biden’s manifest flaws, he does have working class appeal. Can’t deny it. He really did grow up poor. He can speak the language of the working class. He’s lying his a** off when he does it, but he can do it. Trump to win in 2024 needs blue collars…lots of them. The upper and middle class urban and suburban whites rejected him in 2016 and even more so in 2020. No doubt they will largely do so again in 2024. It became a crucial necessity to break Biden’s ability to pull in blue collar voters…and Trump knew that Biden was going gaga. All he had to do was get him on any stage, even in the most Biden-favorable circumstances, and Biden would be exposed as the senile, frail old man that he is. Presto! Done. Whether or not he thought they’d dump Biden for Harris or just put Harris front and center to keep Biden off stage would become a complete irrelevancy…only Biden can pull in the blue collars that Trump needs and if he’s off the ticket or off the stage, he can’t do it. He was able to do it with rare appearances in 2020 because he was still reasonably lucid and Covid gave the excuse for being rarely seen. But in 2024, it had to be Biden out there matching Trump appearance for appearance and the debate showed that Biden is done…and simply can’t do it. Meanwhile having Harris out there either in the top spot or as surrogate is a complete disaster for Democrat attempts to pull in working class votes…she’s just too clearly West Coast upper class Leftist…the very sort of person that the entire American working class has always despised.
So, for Trump, it doesn’t matter who the nominee is – as long as it wasn’t a reasonably lucid and energetic Biden. But Mark, you say, isn’t the polling going bad for Trump? Most of it is. But do remember that when they finally pushed Joe out and inserted Harris the Trump campaign said, directly, that the polling was now going to favor Harris. It had only gone against Joe – and only moderately in public polling – because the Democrats had decided Joe had to go and so needed public polling that pressured him to quit. Team Trump knew that the positive public polling for Trump was a chimera…a temporary glance at reality just to get a particular job done. That finished, the polling switched back to the norm: massively overstating Democrat strength. Someone earlier today posted a screen shot of the Quinninpiac Pennsylvania polling for 2020…it showed Biden leads from 7 to 14 points or so. He barely won the State. Now, this was a whole series of polls done over months and they never even got close to the final result…when you see that sort of miss that consistently in one direction, then that graduates your poll from “mistake” to “lie”. It wasn’t that Quinninpiac got its model a bit wrong or that they missed some detail…they were lying. Bald faced, ridiculous lies. They’re lying again here in 2024. All the pollsters who got big misses in favor of the Democrats (and that is most public polling) missed consistently in the Democrats favor in 2016 and 2020. Not mistakes. They are lies. Lies designed to depress GOP turnout and encourage Democrats to donate and vote.
So, how does this tie into Trump being in New York? Well, it can be one of three things:
Just a huge, stupid mistake.
A headfake to confuse and scare Democrats.
Confidence in 270.
Although Trump is working from a plan, this doesn’t guarantee its a good plan. The most brilliant leader can simply screw up. It happens. We won’t know if Trump’s plan is a good one until 11/5. But that there is a plan can’t be doubted. So, it could be that stupid mistake. If so, we’ll find out for sure on Election Day. It could be a headfake…just a foray into the Blue stronghold to make Democrats look over their shoulder. But such a thing would be better done in Virginia or Minnesota where there is polling showing Trump at least close. So, absent it being a mistake or a headfake, it is confidence in 270. Personally, that is what I think it is.
That is, I believe that Team Trump is very confident that they’ve got more than 270 electoral votes sewn (though they will continue to campaign in the battlegrounds right up to the end) and now they’re making a play for something I think Trump wants very badly: an overall popular vote win. We all know it is irrelevant…but it is highly symbolic and it is something the Democrats have invested in as some sort of political holy grail. Trump can’t win New York – figuring he’s going to flip it is, sorry, just silly. There are simply too many Democrat voters in New York City for that to happen. But if Trump can increase his vote share there by 450,000 (and consequently drop Harris that much from Biden’s 2020 total) then its a huge boost in his chances to get to 50%+1 of the vote. He needs to flip the overall popular vote about 3.5 million his way out of what will probably be 157 million votes. Doable. Not easy. If you had to bet on it then don’t bet the rent. But it is doable. And if done, it takes away most of the arguments the Democrats have against Trump…and the last shred of Never Trump argument.
As I’ve always said, in politics look at what people are doing rather than what they’re saying. Harris is camping out in Pennsylvania. Trump is having a rally in New York. Trump is clearly far more confident than Harris. To be sure, Trump’s confidence can be misplaced. I am absolutely certain Trump will win. November 5th might merely prove me a fool. But I do believe I have facts to back up my case: voter registration numbers, early ballot requests, anecdotal evidence of Trump strength on the ground, etc. Any objective analyst of politics is going to say that if they had to choose who to be, they’d choose being Trump…he’s clearly got the inside track to win. But however you wish to slice that up, Trump is clearly confident of the outcome…and he’s going to follow his plan right to the end. With right now being the play for a popular vote win…which is just as downright ridiculous as the part of his plan that had him shouting from the rooftops in 2022 that the 2020 election was stolen. But, then again, how did the earlier part of the plan work?
I’ll finish up with this: I’m not asking for anyone to love Trump. You don’t have to wear a MAGA hat. But I am asking for all patriots to join in giving a gigantic middle finger to the mountain of lies which sustain Harris and the Ruling Class. Dooming does nothing for you. Having confidence will turn the campaign in to the funnest thing you’ve ever done. Lets get out there and save our country, friends. It is in our hands.
Update: I had talked bad polling for Trump in the post and then Emerson went and did this…with their thumb on the scale for her, this is the best they could do!
An Atlas poll came out Saturday showing Trump at 51% and this means, of course, that ABC puts out a poll on Sunday showing Harris at 52%. Guys, you can’t get results like that via honesty. At least one of the pollsters is just flat out lying. It could be both of them, but one of them definitely is. Given that ABC is ABC, my assumption is that their poll is flaming garbage. But the real lesson here is to never put too much faith in polls – as we’ve seen and discussed for years, even those trying their best can get it wrong. What do we see rather than hear? That Harris is pretty much setting up camp in Pennsylvania. If she was up by six, she would be trying to expand the map, not trying to thread the needle to 270.
Now that we’re past the initial Cat Memes, the Left and Never Trump are saying we were wrong to bring it up – racists, too. Of course. But the crucial aspect of it was to bring to the public mind the real problem: that we’re taking in just tens of millions all at once and it is causing problems. Here’s the bottom line on it – if you are an immigration supporter and think we should make it as easy as possible for people to move here, you’d still be opposed to the sort of influx that Springfield, OH is enduring. It is just too much, too fast. But that the other side of this is not conceding this – and calling us racists for noticing – points to the real problem we have here: a significant portion of the power in the USA wants this to happen. That is, for a variety of reasons, they see mass migration to the USA as a good thing.
It is partially for money; a lot of people make a lot of money just bringing them in. In this, non-profits make, well, huge profits bringing them in. Billions in taxpayer dollars are passed out to non-profits based on the number of immigrants they handle and, guess what?, that means they work diligently to increase the numbers they handle. I’ve seen reports where some of these organizations have had their revenues increase by several orders of magnitude since 2020.
It is partially for exploitation: huge numbers of these people are ruthlessly exploited by corporations, sex traffickers and criminal cartels. They take these poor people and squeeze the blood out of them. Every year untold billions of dollars are remitted by immigrants to foreign countries and if you think even a large percentage of it is winding up in the hands of some poor farmer in Oaxaca then I’ve got a bridge to sell you. Drug cartels run the poorest areas of Mexico…and gangs that chop off heads to send a message aren’t going to pass up the opportunity to steal from a multi-billion dollar revenue stream. One must keep in mind that the most valuable commodity on Earth is human beings. Wars were fought to secure the African slave trade because it was so incredibly valuable. An ounce of gold is great…but an ounce of gold can’t clean up for you. Can’t be exploited every single day to provide unearned income for you.
And it is partially political. Not for nothing have most of these immigrants been sent to Red States. The Democrats are now starting to lose every demographic except upper class whites and black women. The blue collar votes they are losing to Trump and an ever more populist GOP have to be replaced…and that is precisely what they’re trying to do…totally abusing Executive authority, they are bringing in millions on parole, calling them legal immigrants and giving them work permits…but also welfare. And you know darned well that their goal is to amnesty these people and get them voting as quickly as possible.
So, when you’re called a racist for pointing out there are downsides to mass migration, remember who is saying it: ruthless, cruel people trying to exploit the poor of the world for personal benefit. And when Trump wins in November, remember that it was silly cat memes that helped him to victory: never accept the Left’s Narrative. They’re only mad right now because we successfully implanted immigration as an issue.
J D Vance continues to impress – he did 3 Sunday talk shows today while Harris and Walz did zero. He’s articulate, intelligent, has done his homework and doesn’t roll over for MSM lies. He doesn’t accept their premise and that is so very crucial…Trump started down this path but, lets face it, he lacks a bit of discipline in this. Vance just crucifies the lying sons of bitches. He’s going to be an excellent Vice President and we GOPers are going to have a tough call in 2028 choosing between him and DeSantis.
I love how the MSM is all “official sources are denying reports of cats being eaten”…as if anyone believes official sources…or that the MSM’s job is to just repeat the press release rather than checking.
Look, do I know with existential certainty that a cat has been eaten by an illegal immigrant? No. But there is enough anecdotal evidence to indicate it…and it would be rare for a person to call the police to report a missing cat. The place to check is actually the local animal shelters: has there been an increase in inquiries about missing pets? That would tell the tale…but the MSM won’t do that. Why not? Because they are terrified of what they might find.
What is important about this – and why Democrats hate it so much – is that it makes it personal and easily understood by the American people. There was a news report not too long ago about the Biden Administration providing “temporary” protected status for another 309,000 Haitians. We know that “temporary” means “forever” – but it is another 309,000. Meaning there are far more than 309,000 Haitians in country. 309,000 is nearly 3% of Haiti’s total population. Just how many of them are here? 5%? 7%? 10%? We really don’t know – and extending “temporary” protected status to 309,000 means its really extended to every Haitian who can get here…how in heck you going to sort them out? It isn’t like there’s a government in Haiti we can check with…even supposing the Haitian government actually kept records about their people.
But all that I just wrote still doesn’t mean a lot. It gives a sense of unease…but nothing you can put your finger on. Missing kitty cats? That is something. Huge numbers of us have cats. We love our little kitty cats. If someone is doing something to them – and we’ve got enough recent reports to say that things are being done to them by foreigners in the USA – that is horrific…and easily understood. It demonstrates the complete cultural incompatibility of these people. They simply don’t know that you can’t kill Fluffy…nor are you allowed to hunt the geese in the local park. To a Haitian flown from his shack next to an open sewer in Port au Prince to a Section 8 house in Ohio, that goose is just free food…he doesn’t understand. And why should we expect him to? I don’t blame the Haitian guy for seeing the tame park goose as an easy meal…I blame the monied interests who brought him in.
It is entirely killing their Narrative about Dreamers…an already unpopular thing (illegal immigration) has become politically toxic. And they can’t do anything about it – the Democrats, as a party, are committed to mass importation of a replacement population. If Harris were to really get up there and say “we’re going to deport and we’re going to seal the border” then 20% of her vote would to to Jill Stein. The far Left will not forgive such a thing. So, she makes vague statements about providing more funding for the border patrol and getting tough on drug trafficking…which statements are, of themselves, lies.
Gavin Newsom signed a new law to “get tough” on smash and grab robberies. Or, at least, that is how the regime propagandists at the Associated Press described it. But once you dig into it you find out that its only if the robber passes $50,000.00 in theft or damage. In other words, it is the Beverly Hills Retail Establishment Protection Act. Gavin must have got some calls from the rich about how they don’t want their nice little shopping areas ruined…and like a good, little Ruling Class tool, he got the job done. The poor suckers in Compton losing their local CVS and Target get nothing. I think Trump should figure out a way to bring this one up – it so clearly shows that the Democrats are just the Ruling Class and only care about the Ruling Class.
Over on ABC’s Tik Tok account, Trump’s closing statement from the debate is past 23 million views, overwhelmingly positive. Harris’? Not quite 4 and a half million views.
I’m sure you saw that video of Biden putting on a MAGA hat. I’m still not 100% sure about what happened there: was he just senile and didn’t know? Just having a little fun?
Or was he giving a gigantic middle finger to Harris and the DNC for what they did to him?
Nobody despises Biden more than I do but the bottom line is that they did totally screw him. The time to get him out was June of 2023. That’s when Hillary and Barry and the other leaders should have gone to Biden and said, “Joe, we love you; we appreciate all you’ve done and we’re forever grateful…but your fast ball has lost a bit and it is time to bow out gracefully”. Biden probably would have agreed. There would have been a real primary and the Democrats would have someone who could credibly campaign on change…but, no: they decided to lie (with Biden’s cooperation, of course; he is still a rat bastard in his own right) and keep him in only to have him implode…and now they’re stuck with Harris.
Everyone all excited? Ready for this decisive moment?
Meh. I don’t think it’ll be that big a deal.
This can’t harm Trump in my view – he’s such an entirely known quantity that there’s no zinger Harris can use that will redefine him. On the other hand, huge downside potential for Harris here: she has to pretend that she’s not part of the current Administration while making out that her current office has prepared her to lead. And she needs to make the case that while the Administration has screwed everything up, she can fix it. Add in the fact that she’s not a great debater or public speaker and I don’t see this going too well for her: best she can hope for is to do no harm to herself.
To be sure, the MSM articles lauding her performance are already written…they were, in fact, likely written by the Harris campaign and just handed out to the MSMers so that each “journalist” could tweak it a bit and make it seem unique. There will be the flash polls showing that 90% of Trump voters now want to give her a sloppy kiss. Yadda, yadda, yadda.
Polls have been weakening for Harris for about ten days now – and Nate Silver’s forecast shows a good chance of a Trump win. The bottom line is that, at best, Harris is a point or two ahead of Trump in the popular vote polling and is behind in enough Battleground States to get Trump past 270. Its not going well in spite of overwhelmingly positive MSM coverage of her and a massive infusion of campaign cash. But, I guess we’ll see what happens tonight!
So the Cheney family is going all-in on Harris. Some are expecting the Bush family to join in and while this is in the realm of possibility, I doubt it. The Bush family retains political ambitions that can only be satisfied on the GOP side of the aisle as the children of W and Jeb rise in the world. The Bush family is already persona non grata in many parts of the GOP so an endorsement of Harris would finish the family forever in GOP politics. The Cheney’s have no future in the GOP so there was no cost to them for endorsing Harris. But the spectacle of the man the Left compared to Darth Vader being welcomed to Team Harris is astonishing. None of us saw this coming twenty years ago.
But even without an explicit endorsement of Harris by the Bush family, they still aren’t out there campaigning for Trump – and Trump likely doesn’t want them to, given the negative connotations the family has on both sides of the aisle. And that is the sea-change; the political realignment. Cheney for Harris and Kennedy for Trump. The old Right/Left dichotomy that started in the 1930’s is over with for good or ill and there’s no going back. Trump is the GOP nominee because the old GOP betrayed us – every time push came to shove, the old GOP gave in to the Democrats. The remains of the old GOP still want us to give in to the Democrats. Those old GOPers who know we never will are now moving over to the Democrat side of the aisle…while anyone on the Dem side who is sick to death of the wokeness, the lies and the corruption is moving over to us even if on policy they aren’t 100% with us.
Latest rumor being floated by Team Harris is that Keith Ellison, the insane Leftist attorney general of Minnesota, is on the short list for US attorney general. This is done to try and pull in Muslim votes in Michigan and Minnesota…which is something that Harris isn’t supposed to have to do on September 7th of the campaign year. Clearly, her internal polling is not rosy. By this time she’s supposed to be tacking to the center and trying to get to 270…this is a move to the hard left necessary to ensure her base of 226 is still with her. To be sure, if she does win it is no certainty that Ellison would actually be nominated, let alone confirmed by what is almost certain to be at least a 51-GOPer Senate…but if anyone sane needed a reason to vote Trump, this is it. Ellison is an evil man who hates the United States of America. Keeping him out of federal office is the moral duty of all decent people.
How is the race going? Well, back on November 7th, 2020, Trump beat Biden by 74,483 votes in North Carolina. Back then, the Democrat voter registration advantage in the State stood at 391,043. Today? It stands at 128,306. Just as in 2016, I think the voter registration numbers are a gigantic flashing red light…but most political Experts and polling number crunchers are ignoring them…and the few who even mention registrations only do so to dismiss them. But I think its the most crucial indicator of how things are going – the Experts think that 2016 was the aberration…it wasn’t: 2020 was. Covid plus cheating got Biden in, not some swing to the old political norm. Trump now is the political norm. People are sick to death of the Ruling Class, GOP and Democrat. Biden was the last gasp of a dying Ruling Class…and they had to massively cheat to get him over the finish line. And a level of cheating that was only possible in the unique circumstances of Covid restrictions.
Could I be wrong? Of course I can. We’re going to find out! But I suspect at the end of the day a substantial trump win. Maybe 40% chance he wins the popular vote while also securing a 312 vote Electoral College victory.
Now the final push begins. According to some polling, Harris is doing ok. According to other polling, Trump is doing ok. But in almost all polling Trump is doing better than he ever did in 2016 or 2020. Most thinking people put the race as a tossup and that’s probably the best way to go. Always play like you’re a few points behind, right?
But as I said early on, I do believe that Trump’s program isn’t just to get a narrow Electoral College victory like he did in 2016 and nearly got in 2020 in spite of massive cheating…I think he wants a big victory. Maybe even an absolute popular vote majority. In service to that, Team Trump has invested a lot in reaching out to less likely voters – that is, voters who don’t always vote. Pretty much universally among such people Trump is up huge…like 15+ points from what I’ve seen. If Trump can get these people to show – and they do have incentive this year to do so – then all polling is drivel…because especially lately polling has tried to screen for Likely Voters…which naturally excludes people who don’t vote on the regular.
Low turnout election: favors Harris.
High turnout election: favors Trump.
I did find out from some actual polling experts that newly registered voters are counted in Likely Voter screens – the assumption, which I think correct, is that if you just registered to vote then you’re motivated and will show. But I also wonder about the response rate for such voters? Especially Trump voters? You see, someone who just registered to vote with an eye to pulling the Trump lever is probably someone highly suspicious…you know, unlikely to pick up the phone and answer a pollster. This along with irregular voters means there could be a large swath of voters simply not showing up in the public polls.
But what of the private polls? That we don’t know – and if internals are leaked, they are leaked to get us to think a certain way. Looking at ad spending there is no big surprise – both teams are pouring the money into the Battlegrounds and pretty much matching each other. But I note that Team Harris has been spending some time in New Hampshire and Virginia…States which the flip from Biden to Harris was supposed to put out of Trump’s reach. Why campaign in places you’ve locked down? Of course you don’t. Additionally, Harris is now calling in Pudding Brain – his use will be selective but that they have to use him indicates, in my mind, a huge problem for Harris among blue collar voters. We just went through a month of “Joe, who?” from Harris and the Democrats…now he’s back. Looking terrible and sounding more senile than ever…I mean, how desperate are you to think that the Scranton Joe drivel will work again? Especially as Scranton Joe can barely string a coherent sentence together?
I’m also noticing that the lies keeping Harris afloat are getting threadbare…there are just so many of them and they are so obviously lies. It looks like she may have even lied about working at McDonald’s. Remember, she’s the daughter of a rich Commie father and a privileged Indian mother. She tries to talk like she’s just some poor kid but her mother was an oncologist. Even in the 60’s and 70’s, such doctors were making big bucks. She was never poor. Never lacked resources. Wouldn’t have to take a part time job. I thought it credible at first that she might have – earn a few extra bucks, ya know? But now it looks like even that might not have happened. As for Walz, there’s pretty much no biographical detail he hasn’t lied about – and this is before Team Trump starts asking how a teacher managed to afford 30 trips to Communist China. I do suspect that people are starting to see through it all – that Harris is nothing but lies.
I do think Harris will show for the debate. Some people think she’ll find an excuse to back out. But I figure she’s gotta show: no matter how much MSM spin there’d be on it, it would look just terrible if she backed out. How will it go? I’m sure she’ll have her mindless platitudes memorized and, of course, the MSMers will pitch softballs at her…as well as do other things to protect her from Trump. But at the end of the day she’s not a good speaker, she can’t think on her feet and her voice and personality are grating. They’re not hiding her for no reason: if she was even reasonably competent in front of an audience they’d have her out there unscripted on the regular. She’s just terrible at it. She had to bow out before a vote was cast in 2020 for a reason. Of course no matter how it goes the MSM will call it the best debate performance ever seen…but the people will be watching and if Trump is in any way a credible alternative, he’s going to walk away with the debate.
I’m still serene. Confident of victory. Maybe I’m foolish about it but I just don’t have any jitters about it. Perhaps I’m just getting old now and so feel I have less at stake? I don’t know – but I feel great about it all. I’m enjoying this election more than any I’ve ever experienced.
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