Donald Trump

Open Thread

Mark Noonan43 Comments

Actual MSM headline:

Former President Trump sidesteps his role in Afghanistan exit in trying to link Vice President Harris to chaos

This is the level of lies we’re dealing with – in the MSM’s lie, Trump is trying to pin his failure in Afghanistan on Harris. The hook they’re using is an allegation that what Trump did in office made the Afghan failure happen. This is, of course, nonsense. Whatever Trump did to 1/20/2021, Biden and Harris had until 8/20/2021 to fix it. And that is presuming that Trump did something wrong. He didn’t but it is no use arguing the point – the people in charge when the catastrophe happened were Harris and Biden…with Harris asserting in olden times (like a year ago) that she was the last person to advise Biden on it.

The reason I bring this up is not to show yet another lie but to remind you that they are lying – about everything, including their polling. What we’re being treated to in 2024 is an effort to make people vote based on something 180 from reality. It has never been done quite like this before – even the most egregiously dishonest campaigns in the past at least tried to deal in the situation as it was…here we’re getting people trying to secure your vote by saying “black is white”. It will naturally work with the most dyed-in-the-wool Democrats. Will it work on anyone else? We’re going to find out. I believe it will not work – and, in fact, will prove counter-productive as people get pissed off when someone so brazenly lies to them.

The real state of the race is this: all through the 2024 cycle Senator Rosen (D-NV) has steered away from any mention that she’s a Democrat, has refused to appear with the Democrat nominee and has burnished her image as a non-partisan problem-solver. This is just a pack of lies and according to polling it is working…supposedly she has a comfortable lead over Sam Brown, her Republican challenger. But this morning I saw a new Rosen ad – it explicitly attacks the Democrats for harming blue collar workers with tax increases. Naturally, the ad concludes with her pledge to fight against that but think about the state of her internal polling if she feels the need for that sort of ad. This race is not going as the Narrative says. Not even close.

They’re going to keep it up – they won’t stop. They’ve committed to it – the BS will continue to 11/5. But we live in a world where 46% of middle class workers have cut their retirement plan contributions because of the rising cost of living. That is the reality. That is what people will remember. That is what they will vote on.

Off We Go to the General Election

Mark Noonan57 Comments

Didn’t watch Her Cackleness speak – X comment is on partisan lines.

Democrats: “I’d commit seppuku for her!”

GOPers: “It sucked”

Doom Mongers: “She’s like Reagan and Trump is going to lose!”

Personally, I don’t think it matters what she said – her entire campaign is an attempt to lie her into office just as Joe’s was in 2020. They are pretending she isn’t in office and wasn’t for the last 4 years. Vote for her! She’ll fix everything! Don’t even ask! Just vote. Joy!

Can it work? If it does then, as I’ve said from the get-go, we never had a chance. If an electoral majority falls for this drivel then no matter who we nominated we were going to lose.

But, I don’t think we’re going to lose. In fact, I think we’re going to win pretty big. Even with the Kamala-hype BS polling, Trump sits at 287 Electoral Votes. That is more than 270, by the way. The rest is just gravy. They will put out some polls over the next few days showing her up big because that is all part of the Narrative but in the nitty-gritty, she’s just not catching on. People do see the scam and I think they are getting increasingly revolted by it. Covid made the Joe-BS seem at least partially credible…but now its just all bad and there’s nothing big to blame it on, except those in charge. Harris is one of those in charge. She can tell us all she wants that she’ll fix things and it’ll always come back to the question: why aren’t you fixing them now?

Be that as it may, now the real contest begins – and while Never Trump Doomsters are talking like its 2016, the bottom line is that Team Trump is highly disciplined and hitting Harris where it hurts while also getting into the mechanics of getting voters to the polls and making sure the count goes correctly. Trump is not hated by a majority. Trump does hit the points he needs to hit. If there is anything like a fair-minded majority in America, this is in the bag.

And, personally, I think it is – heck, every time someone goes to the grocery store, MAGA shines a little brighter. If you are feeling nervous then here’s the cure all: turn off the TV. Seriously: that is where all the Harris-hype comes from. It is just news-actors on TV saying what Team Harris told them to say and, guess what?, they’ve been told to say that Harris is beloved and rocking and just soaring to the heights. They’re like German radio in April of 1945 saying that Berlin remains German and Vienna will be German again. Baghdad Bob got nothing on these guys. It isn’t happening. She isn’t popular. Nobody likes her. Heck, her own supporters can’t even tell you why they support her…its just “she’s like a woman, you know, and black and she cares about me”. Her campaign is infantile and designed to impress the least knowledgeable people in the United States…you know, news-actors, welfare bums and college students.

Meanwhile, as you collect your paycheck among rumors of imminent layoffs you have to figure out what you won’t buy this week because food is so damned expensive. Guess who you’re voting for?

UPDATE: Did not have RFK, Jr endorsing Trump on my bingo card. OTOH, we all should have: the Democrats really screwed him. To be sure, RFK has some kooky ideas…but, so what? That’s the thing about our side: you’re allowed to have your views. Speak! Let’s hear it. Try to convince us. We’re not afraid. And let’s all admit that especially after COVID we all have our doubts about pharma…but its been longer than that, hasn’t it? The TV ads for drugs which list a score of side affects…what the heck is that about? Does the damned thing work, or not? And if I’m sick, I’m going to a doctor…you advertising seems to be an attempt to get me to buy medicine I maybe don’t need.

The main thing about this is that there is a clear and growing movement against the Ruling Class and against its titular head, Kamala Harris. Nothing works. Space ships stuck in space. Rag tag Islamic militia in Yemen thumbing its nose at our fleet. Bridges can’t be repaired for years. Kids can’t read. Crime. Inflation. Wars all around the world. A flood of illegals. We all feel it. We know its going badly. And we’re supposed to give the Ruling Class another four years? We’re supposed to believe that somehow Trump is the threat?

No. It won’t wash. We’re voting Trump.

UPDATE II: Our Matt explains that if we do want to save Democracy, Harris has to lose.

Get Ready for the Psy-Op

Mark Noonan30 Comments

No, as it turns out, I won’t watch a minute of the DNC. Reminder: I almost didn’t watch the Trump-Biden debate because I find Biden to be such a vile person that I have no desire to hear him speak as if he’s on an equal moral or intellectual level with me. It is 50/50 whether I’ll watch the Trump-Harris debates. I utterly despise these people. They are evil. Cruel. Corrupt. Stupid. Anti-human. Anti-American. I want them permanently removed from power and I want them punished under law for what they have done. So, yeah, I’ll be watching something else while they talk.

I will check out the X feed though.

But no matter what you do this next week, keep in mind that you are being targeted by a massive psy-op. It is designed to get you to quit; to think that Harris is genuinely popular and that Trump is a worn out has-been headed for defeat. They will have polls showing precisely this. I mean really big this time – national leads of 5 or more and there will be polls showing her down only 2 in Ohio and 1 in Florida. It will be the most absurd set of lies ever produced. A level of lies that Goebbles would have rejected as too implausible. Don’t fall for any of it.

The race is about whether or not people want a continuation of the last 4 years. That is what a Presidential election is always about. If things are going well, then the party in power is usually rewarded with another 4 years even if the incumbent President isn’t on the ballot. 2000 was a rare exception here – and that was a photo-finish that very easily could have gone the other way. There are no objective factors which indicate that people want 4 more years of Democrats or that they think Kamala Harris is someone of wisdom and courage able to lead the United States. Objective factors, by the way, does not include polls. Polls are weak reeds under the best of circumstances and they will be warped heavily over the next ten days or so.

It is after that you’re looking to. Especially after Labor day. Trump will start the knock down actually during the DNC – he was going to lay low but now there are several events…and they will get coverage just when the Democrats want all eyes on their psy-op. A message of courage and hope will come straight from Trump just while the op is telling everyone to give up, Trump can’t win. But it is still after Labor day that the real battle starts – and what I believe will end up being a step-by-step dismantling of the entire Harris propaganda effort. Trump did it in 2016 and he’ll do it again in 2024…except this time with far more muscle.

Open Thread

Mark Noonan33 Comments

A lot of recent polling indicates that whatever momentum Harris was getting after the coup against Biden, it is fading fast. Personally, I don’t think it ever really happened but there are only so many thumbs you can put on the scale before your poll becomes such garbage that you lose credibility entirely…there was a gap of at least several days in polling before the most recent releases and my guess on that is that they were finding what was, in the end, found: even with thumbs on the scale, Trump was at worst holding position to get past 270.

As per usual in all elections, it will be decided by who shows up. Gallup’s most recent party ID poll had the electorate R+6. All of us doubt that – but maybe we shouldn’t. Someone pointed out on X that after months of good polling for Trump GOPers were still dooming and glooming while a week of good polling for Harris got Democrats seriously claiming they’d flip Texas and Utah. We’re just built to be Debbie Downers, aren’t we? We’re so used to losing that we can’t envision winning. Maybe we should start to act like winners? Trump sure seems confident – at the worst of the Kamala-mentum he was out there golfing and nailing it. Any golfer will tell you that if you’re stressed you’ll do poorly. Trump wasn’t stressed in the least.

Keep in mind that public polls are “free” and are therefore designed for a purpose. None of them are agenda-free. Sometimes it is far more subtle than others, but if someone gives you something for free then they want something out of you. Your grandmother can give you a free lunch – everyone else is working an angle. Meanwhile, both parties have pollsters who are crucial in determining which States to spend time and money in. These people don’t mess around. If you’re such a pollster and you steer candidates wrong, you’ll be out of work. Both Team Trump and Team Harris know the state of the race – and they are pouring money into Pennsylvania, especially after Labor Day (oddly, so far Team Trump has reserved about 50% more time in PA than Team Harris – Harris almost certainly can’t get past 270 without PA…so being heavily outspent seems weird…but might also mean that the supposed record-breaking fundraising she did after the coup was just a story; of course, Team Harris might push up their numbers in PA as they see Team Trump do it).

If Gallup is right, or even if its R+2, Harris has an impossible task – there simply won’t be enough votes out there to get to 270…probably not even enough to win the popular vote, even with CA and NY voting for her in droves. R+1 to D+2 means Harris has to draw an inside straight just to get to 270. D+3 its a complete tossup. The polls are mostly predicated upon D+3 to D+5. So, we see lots of polls showing tossup or a slight Harris advantage. And if the electorate is D+5 then, yeah, Trump is going to lose. He simply won’t be able to find enough votes to get past 270. But there is zero indication that the electorate will be worse for Trump than even on party ID – voter registration and primary voting patterns all indicate an electorate more GOP than polling suggests.

Who shows up: that decides it.

And do note that Team Trump is expending efforts to drag low-propensity voters to the polls. These are people who do vote but only in Presidential years and even then not all the time. Lots of polling shows Trump absolutely crushing it with this demographic. Trouble is: they don’t vote all the time. It isn’t an absolute necessity that Trump get these people to show, but if he’s successful in doing so, what in polling today is a tight race becomes a blowout win for Trump. We’ll see if Team Trump’s bet on this pays off.

Harris’ first big policy roll out has been to steal some Trump policies and add a bunch of Communism. You should hear her border ad in Nevada – to listen to it, you’d think she’s a MAGA border hawk. It stops just half an inch before “build the wall”. It is a nauseating lie – if she wins she’ll do nothing to control the border. In fact, it’ll be a signal to let 20 million or more in. But that she’s running the ads shows (a) she’s very weak on the issue and (b) Trump has moved the window on it…just by talking about it over and over and over again. Open borders is simply unpopular. Even pluralities of Democrats favor closing the border. I’ve seen polling where majorities of Latinos favor mass deportations. Trump has won the immigration debate – of course, it only becomes reality if he wins. Anyone else will simply mouth some words and keep the bodies flowing.

But the Communism is the thing – and it is working out badly for Harris. Her program of essentially imposing price controls is being panned even in parts of the Left. Everyone who thinks at all knows it is a bad idea. The inflation is because of the government spending money it doesn’t have. Everyone knows that the only way to get inflation to halt is to dial back government spending while increasing domestic production until rising wealth restores the equilibrium we had in 2019. Her bizarre idea of providing 25 grand to new home buyers is being noticed as the pandering it is – with plenty of comments from current homeowners about how its not exactly fair to shovel cash at some people and not others.

Walz continues to be a drag on Harris – not in polling, but there’s some nonsense in that. But the crucial thing – and the thing least likely to show in general national polling – is how veterans view Walz. Most civilians simply won’t understand how infuriating it is to any veteran to see someone fake their record. Sea stories are fine – appreciated (Old joke: what’s the difference between a sea story and a fairy tale? A fairy tale begins with “once upon a time” while a sea story begins with “no sh*t”). But to lie about actual service is despised. We all honor each other’s service – doesn’t matter where you were assigned; if you showed up and did your job, you’re one of us. Sure, there is extra honor accorded to those who had to really get down into the mud and blood, but no veteran denigrates those who served. All veterans pledged their lives and that’s good enough. But to lie about it – to appropriate valor and suffering not endured – is just disgusting to veterans. And to do it – like Walz – to burnish a resume for political purposes is just beyond the pale. Recent polling in Virginia shows it close – and this after the coup. That is Virginia’s massive veteran population. There are lots of bureaucrats in northern Virginia voting with their paymasters in DC…but tidewater Virginia is packed to the gills with retired Marines and sailors who, I assure you , despise what Walz did. This could have a small but decisive effect on the result.

Meanwhile, JD Vance continues to impress. We all loved how the latest attack on him was someone dredging up a picture of a young Walz apparently down for the count after a bout of youthful drinking. Another showed him goofing off with some girls in the boys room. I don’t know what they were thinking on this one – all it did was make him more relatable. I mean, relatable to anyone who challenged Jose Cuervo to a duel in high school. This, I think, is most of us. But maybe not Liberals? I dunno. Maybe Liberals don’t have fun. Maybe that’s their problem? Anyways, the guy is turning into teflon – and I think he’ll mop the floor with that phony, Walz.

Open Thread

Mark Noonan15 Comments

There’s been a persistent rumor that Biden is not at all pleased to have been forced out. I don’t know if its true but I’d bet money that it is. Gotta think about it: He was happily retired in 2019 and it was the party bosses who prevailed upon him to run. They figured that “Scranton Joe” was the best shot at beating Trump. He got into it because he was asked to get into it – and this after being rudely passed over in 2016 in favor of Hillary! Remember: he was the sitting VP of what was accounted as a very successful, two-term President. The normal course of events would be Biden getting the nod as reward for his loyal service much as Bush did in 1988 and Humphrey did in 1968. But, no: Obama and Clinton had struck the deal in 2008 and she was determined to collect in 2016…the skids were greased for her so that, really, nobody else had a chance. Passed over for what Biden likely thought was his turn, he went into retirement…until called out of it. Then, in his mind, he beat Trump (and, likely also in his mind, confirming that he would have beaten him in 2016 if he hadn’t been pushed out). He loyally allowed the Party to do its thing under the umbrella of his name…and then got unceremoniously dumped when the chips were down. In Biden’s lucid moments, that has to be infuriating. And justly so – I despise the creep, but he was done wrong by the Democrat establishment. This is why, I believe, that Harris’ desperate attempts to create distance from Biden are being undermined by routine Biden statements that she and he were tied at the hip.

I also believe that the recent revelations about Hunter and Bursima are part of this – a stern warning to Biden to knock if off. Remember: the weapons charge he was convicted off was the smallest charge possible. He actually faces a host of very serious federal crimes (along with untold numbers of State crimes across multiple jurisdictions) – it was all buried in favor of what was supposed to be a slap on the wrist. Hunter – because he’s a druggie – rejected the sweetheart deal and now does face some jail time…but still no more than a year. The rest of the charges would have him in jail effectively for the rest of his life. Biden is now being warned that if he doesn’t cool his jets a lot of bad things will happen.

And to the thought that Biden could just pardon Hunter – definitely not for State charges and the bottom line is that Nixon’s pardon was never seriously challenged. It is not settled as to whether or not a President can pardon for charges not yet filed, let alone not even known. Basically, Hunter is massively at risk – at the bare minimum of spending years tied up in court burning through every cent the Biden family has. So, cool it, Joe.

But, will he? He’s an arrogant ass as much as his son is. Personally, I hope Joe throws a grenade or two. Not just because it would harm Democrats but because it would be just. Democrats didn’t have to lie. They chose to lie – and they should pay the piper for that.

The Musk-Trump conversation has been seen by, well, just about everyone. Officially 263 million views on Trump’s X account…easily quadruple that across all platforms. They can’t stop Trump from getting his message out – and a lot of people seem interested in hearing what Trump has to say. Trump is not unpopular. Not hated. Oh, sure, mindless Democrats still hate him…but everyone else has mellowed on the man. He’s one of us. He’s not a scripted hack saying what consultants say the people want to hear. He’s not in it for himself. In fact, had he announced in 2023 that he was backing out, almost all of his problems would have gone away. He’s obviously doing this primarily because he knows that if he doesn’t – if he doesn’t win – then some very dark, evil things will have won.

Polls are still mixed – some of the most recent have Trump up. Some polls released recently but having end dates 10 days ago show Harris up. As I’ve said all along, if the Democrat isn’t consistently up by 3 points on 11/5 then getting to 270 is almost impossible…and to really have it they’d have to be up by 5. A poll showing Harris up by 3 or less is Trump at 312 electoral votes.

Harris’ popular vote total will benefit from California a lot – she’s popular there. Much more so than Biden ever was. The wine moms of suburban CA will see voting Harris as something they must do in order to retain their social position. But even with that, I still give Trump about a 30% chance of winning the popular vote – because voter registration and voting trends elsewhere just grow more favorable to the GOP. Outside of those wine moms, nobody is pleased with how things are going. As for the EC, Harris will not do as well in WI/MI/PA as Biden – just can’t happen. California liberal simply won’t have as much appear as Scranton Joe. Sure, Joe’s blue collar act was just that, and act – but its an act Harris is incapable of performing. I have no doubt that all three of WI/MI/PA go Trump…and do keep in mind that if any 1 of the 3 go Trump, Harris can’t get to 270. She needs all 3; she has to draw an inside straight…and not lose Nebraska’s 1st CD…which has had a big increase in GOP voter registration since 2020.

Side note: the funniest result is Harris taking all 3 but losing NE-01…that works out to a 269 tie. It won’t happen. Like a billion to one against…but it can happen and it shows how much Harris has to thread the needle to 270 while Trump has a half dozen ways to get to it.

This Post Never Deployed to Iraq Open Thread

Mark Noonan48 Comments

Who the heck vetted Tim Walz?

His whole thing is “level headed but liberal solider”…you know, MidWest Dad…hunter. Not a kook. The guy bails out on his unit – apparently backing out of his service commitment – just before his unit deploys to Iraq. Then he goes into politics repeatedly claiming to be a combat veteran!

FFS: this is catastrophic for Harris.

Of course the MSM went into overdrive cover up mode as this all came out but more and more of it just kept showing up…it is now impossible to ignore and if they let Walz debate Vance it’ll be presented to a national audience after Walz is the official VP nominee.

Don’t know what they do here – most likely they’ll just try to brazen it out. But there is a non-zero chance they’re forced to dump Walz at some point.

In addition to that, the Walz’ are…well…psychopaths. Walz signed bills to give illegal aliens drivers licenses and place tampon machines into the boys room…while Mrs Walz recalls with delight how she opened her windows so she could smell the fire of the BLM riots. Kinda funny on the tampon machine thing: all day today on X the Democrat bots were out there jumping on every tampon post to say “hey, we need tampons to be available!” as if this somehow explains why they’re in the boys room. The other line the bots took is that all cool guys carry a tampon around just in case a girl needs it. Maybe things have changed since I was in high school back in the last Ice Age but this just seems like…bullsh** on stilts. You’d need a PhD in mathematics to calculate the number of lockers “tampon boy” would be shoved into. I just have this odd idea that girls – being fully capable beings – look after that aspect of their lives very well, thanks very much, and don’t need a man to tell them what to keep handy in case of an emergency.

Harris got heckled by some pro-Hamas people at a rally – it might have been a set up but maybe not. The Democrats ditched the Jew to keep these people quiet but the bottom line is that Hamas – and thus the Hamasniks – want all Jews dead. Just not having one on the ticket isn’t going to make them shut up.

JD Vance again and again proves he’s intellectually brilliant and verbally adept. He simply destroys the false Narratives of the MSM and if he debates Walz the fight will be called after twenty minutes. Think about this: Walz was chosen because he’s lesser than Harris (and, of course, not a Jew)…Vance was clearly chose because he’s great and Trump is not afraid of his understudy shining bright. I’m still favoring RDS for 2028 but I freely admit that Vance impresses me more day by day. And if I’m torn between RDS and Vance in 2028, that’s a good thing.

Officially the race is a tossup with Harris having a slight edge 270-268. This is at the peak of her glow (or maybe a few days after that peak – there is some recent polling showing Trump rising again). I don’t believe that for a minute. I’ve got it at 312 to 226 favoring Trump with him still having slight chances in Virginia and Minnesota. I am completely confident that Trump/Vance will mop the floor with Harris/Walz (or whomever, who knows?). Because Harris is on top, I rate Trump’s chances of winning the popular vote low but I bet he gets above 80 million votes. And he might pull off a popular vote win – if Harris is finally flushed out of hiding and forced to expose herself to the American people in an unscripted setting, she might implode as badly as Biden did – remember, Biden’s implosion was a combination of bad times and Biden’s clear personal failure. If Harris is revealed as unfit (and she’s totally unfit; and without Joe’s excuse of being senile) then that same dynamic will come into play.

As for the bad times – they’re here and very likely to get much worse. The market volatility we see is based on fear that a recession is inbound. In the USA the employment outlook is bleak and while this might lead to a rate cut, that would immediately set off inflationary pressures. Meanwhile, crime continues to surge in the USA, the war in Ukraine continues to go badly: the Russians have been putting massive pressure on the Ukrainians and slowly grinding ahead. To give Ukraine her due she did launch today (or yesterday, depending on time zone) an incursion towards Kursk: this is, in military parlance, a “spoiling attack”. It isn’t a serious drive on Kursk but a means whereby the Ukrainians hope to draw in Russian reserves thus relieving the pressure elsewhere. How effective it is will be determined by the Russian reserves…if they’ve got enough to contain this attack and still press ahead elsewhere, then that is very bad news for Ukraine. South of there, the Middle East remains on fire and nobody can predict how that is going to go. The bottom line is that all of the things that dragged Biden down pre-debate are still at play…and the MSM hyping Harris can only have so much effect on that and that effect wanes ever faster as time goes on.

Meanwhile – here in Nevada we booted 90,000 bogus voter registrations off the rolls here in Clark County. Methinks I feel the hand of our Republican Governor in all this – former sheriff of Clark County and thus has many connections here. Lombardo does have policy ambitions but to get any of them he needs more GOPers in Carson City…so he’s doing what he can to help. Getting those registrations off the books helps a lot because that is the pathway of Democrat cheating – casting ballots for dead or moved-away voters. Not no more! I rate Nevada as Likely-R for November. There’s also moves along these lines in Arizona and Georgia. And there’s been reforms like this all over where GOP has power – so, it’ll be vastly harder for Democrats to cheat this time and they won’t have Covid to help them. This, by the way, is why Trump kept harping on the steal – to keep it in GOP minds and thus provide the political pressure to clean up the system. You think any of this would happen if Trump had just meekly accepted the 2020 result as Nixon did 1960? Also: voter registration trends continue to favor the GOP all over the Battleground States. Lots of Experts downplay this but I just can’t see someone switching to GOP or registering GOP unless they are planning on voting for Trump…with the indication in new registrations that it is low-propensity voters lining up for The Donald.

Feeling Good About #MAGA

Mark Noonan77 Comments

Dow go down – but now the Futures are up. Its a bit volatile out there…and I do think the big banks managed to manipulate us out of a major slide today. A thousand points isn’t anything to sneeze at but there were multiple reports of trading house websites crashing…and so preventing a lot of people from dumping their stocks, especially early on. The bottom line is that we’re in the midst of a debt-fueled bubble. Will it pop? Not if the central banks around the world have anything to say (and they have a lot to say). For the USA it is a matter of just keeping it afloat until November 5th – after that, even if inflation spikes again, they don’t care. Either Harris will have won or Trump would have – if its Harris they’ll blame anything but her. If its Trump they’ll blame him for it all. If Harris they’ll count on the worst of it being over far enough in front of 2028…if Trump, they’ll exacerbate it and hope it stays bad all through 2028.

But it still might pop – and in a 2008 manner. If that happens in the next 60 days, Trump will win in a landslide. That is what will keep the Fed and others massaging the system furiously. Do keep in mind that the very thought of Trump being sworn in terrifies our entire Ruling Class. They will stop at nothing to prevent such a thing from happen. I do hope that Trump’s security team has heads on a swivel. But outside a repeat of Butler, everything else is also on the table – and if you think the MSM has been brazenly lying to this point, you ain’t seen nothing yet.

They are going to try to lie Harris into office. In 2020 they at least had Covid and related problems…here in 2024, it is all bad for the incumbent party. They’ve got nothing to work with except to lie, lie and then lie some more. Harris won’t just be coddled – she’ll be given an endless tongue bath. The whole point of it, though, isn’t to increase her support – they really can’t. She seems to have a hard ceiling and Trump continues to gain in personal popularity. What they are trying to do is convince Republican-leaners to stay home. To figure Trump has no chance and so don’t bother. Harris needs a low turnout election. Very low. Like an election of complete indifference. If you take a look at the polls showing her “surging” they are predicated upon a D+5 or more environment…and not just heavily D, but low turnout so that the D voters make up 42 or 43 percent of the electorate. In other words, an electorate where a huge swath of Presidential-year independent (but GOP leaning) voters stay home. Can they make this happen? We’re going to find out – if they do, they win. And win forever.

Trump’s task is to take the anger at current conditions and channel it into a message of change – if you look at his tag line it isn’t just “make America great again”…it is also make America safe, powerful, wealthy, etc again. This is a line of talk designed to get those GOP leaning independents to the polls. This is why, at times, you’ll see some odd moves in Trump’s messaging…he’s not speaking all the time to you and me, the core GOP electorate. He knows we’re going to be there and for him…but he needs 5 million people who only vote when angry. Angry with crime, prices, immigration…that sort of thing…and willing to come out and give Trump a shot at fixing it.

I remain serene – certain that Trump will win. The party that had to swap out its candidate with a sleazy backstab isn’t on the path to victory. If Harris was in any way good, the DNC would have dumped Pudding Brain late last year and rigged the primaries for her, not Biden. She’s no good. She isn’t “brat”…she’s nearly 60. Like me. She’s old and she represents a dying past…and a dying Ruling Class. Trump may be older in years, but he represents a bright, youthful future for America…a land of hope and dreams…not fussing over pronouns and worried about if a person meets certain gender and demographic requirements.

This is our times, my friends. Finally and at last, America can break free of the Left. Not all at once – what was a century in the making will take time to undo. But we can shatter the chains. We can reclaim freedom – and sanity. I do believe that Trump has tapped into that sensation that nothing is working but that it can be fixed, if the cretins represented by Harris are turned out of office.

They can’t stop us. Oh, they’re going to try – but we are the stronger side. The decent side. The intelligent side. The hard working side. Their collection of grifters, charlatans and blue haired weirdos doesn’t stand a chance against us. We’re going to fight and we’re going to win.

UPDATE: Word is she picked Walz. So, the candidate who bailed out BLM has picked the guy who let BLM burn Minneapolis. This is the first Judenfrei major party ticket. FFS the Democrats are going to get wiped out.

Open Thread

Mark Noonan86 Comments

Trump has agreed to debate Harris on September 4th – Fox News venue but this time with an audience. Other rules apparently like those during the Pudding Brain debate.

Officially Harris is favored to do well at the debate – and she certainly can’t do worse than Biden. But she’s not a very bright person, she does not do her homework and seems to have a lackadaisical attitude about staying on message. I think Trump may be able to flummox her – and an upset Harris with her whiny, nasal voice won’t come across very well.

Outside optics, all policy advantages are on Trump’s side. Harris is busily distancing herself from…well, just about everything she’s ever said before. She has, as I’ve mentioned before, 100% signed on to each bit of Leftist idiocy as it has come up. No holding back! But now she has to convince people who aren’t Leftist idiots to vote for her…and this will be the very first time she’s ever tried that. Remember: she did Deep Blue California politics and then flopped on entering the national stage…only to be plucked from failure by Joe Biden. What I’m saying is that she’s barely ever been challenged – and certainly never challenged by someone like Donald Trump. It’ll be a new experience for her and I doubt she’ll be ready for it. She might think herself a tough cookie, but she’s never had to be tough before.

There is now a plethora of polling showing Harris doing well – that is, vastly better than Joe was doing. The plus and minus of it all still indicates a Trump win…though without the assurance of a popular vote win that Trump was going to get had Joe stayed in. Harris will be incandescently popular in California and that will drive up her total votes. But that doesn’t matter – what matters is 270 and right now, the worst look for Trump is 268 Electoral Votes…with him having to flip just one of Wisconsin, Michigan or Pennsylvania and Harris having to draw an inside straight to just eke out 270. Some of this polling result is because even though Gallup detects and R+6 environment and most number crunchers expect it to be R+2, the polls are coming in D+5 to D+9. But lets just leave that aside: polls are polls and we learned in 2016 that you can’t live and die by them. The best analysts have dug deep into the numbers and found that what is making Harris look as good as she does is Democrats just being relieved that Joe was given the boot – they were looking at a sure loss and now have flipped to believing that Harris means a sure win. This euphoria will fade…but it will be kept going through the Convention as Democrats and the MSM (BIRM) are determined to give no opening for anyone to challenge her from the floor.

At the end of the day, people still have to buy groceries and gas. The economy still continues to shed jobs for American citizens. Housing prices are still unsustainable. Autos are too expensive. Crime is on the rise (in spite of bogus numbers from the FBI saying it is going down). The border is still a mess. Hearing of an illegal committing a rape or murder is still a common occurrence. In other words, the fundamentals of America which had Trump winning before the debate continue. Harris has to fight against this headwind and hope that she can convince people that she can fix what she and Joe broke. This is a nearly impossible task even with the MSM in the tank for her. The MSM was just as much in the tank for Joe Biden and we see how that worked out. You can’t get around what people live through – you can’t talk them into calling themselves liars.

They say it is Shapiro who will be the VP pick – I guess someone leaked a proposed Harris/Shapiro ad. OTOH, this “leak” might have been intentional…a means to get Harris to not do it. Anti-Semitism of the most vicious sort is common among Democrats these days…especially among their most activist people. You know: the people who riot and burn things when they don’t get their way. But even if they end up going with Shapiro, I’m not too worried. Yes, he will complicate Pennsylvania for us, but nobody votes for a VP…and he’ll be carrying around the barnacles of Harris’ idiotic policy statements over the past four years. Plus, now that I’ve got a look at him he seems a typical Democrat – an ignorant, arrogant, elitist ass. Vance will destroy him in debate.

I don’t think I’ve ever been more serene about the result of an election. In think I’ve reached a sort of Mistrust Nirvana – that is, I am so disconnected from consuming the MSM propaganda that I now assume the truth is 180 from what they’re saying. They’re telling me that Trump is doing terrible and Harris is this super genius. Sorry, no. I know that Trump isn’t doing terrible. He never led in polling in 2016 and 2020 (aside from temporary leads in one or two outliers). Trump has been consistently tied or ahead since March. He’s already mostly locked down Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada and Arizona. He’s got huge cash on hand. He forced a sitting President to quit. Maybe I’m stupid. Maybe I’m biased. But I just feel that Trump is on the path to win this thing – and by a substantial margin after its all said and done.

Open Thread

Mark Noonan30 Comments

Harris is at the peak of her MSM-created glow…and according to the polling averages…she’s still losing.

We also know this, even without looking at polls, because she’s putting the word out that she won’t ban fracking, doesn’t support a mandatory gun “buy back” and no longer supports Medicare for All…at least, that is what aides are telling MSMers. To get Harris to actually state this publicly is probably an impossible task…it would infuriate the Democrat base. This is just done so the MSM can slander Trump for making “baseless” attacks.

Here in Nevada the only thing I’m seeing from Democrats on the regular is their abortion-all-the-time ads. These specifically trying to make Sam Brown politically toxic against Rosen in the Senate race. Will it work? We’ll see; the issue saved Democrat bacon here in Nevada in 2022…but that was because the GOP never refuted the ads. The apparent strategy was to ignore the issue and hope it went away. That didn’t work. Brown has put out some counter ads explaining his position…but I think to defeat the issue (that is, make it neutral) he’ll have to take on the pro-abortion referendum on the Nevada ballot. This was designed to drive up Democrat voting for November – it is totally un-necessary as abortion is secured in the Nevada Constitution up to six months. But the referendum the Democrats cooked up is extreme – it legalizes abortion to birth, allows non-doctors to perform abortions and doesn’t require parental notification if a minor seeks an abortion…so, you know, its the “Let’s Protect Degenerates Act of 2024”. It is being marketed as just “protecting reproductive freedom” but if Brown and the GOP can come up with a good program it can be exposed as the extremist bit of legislation that it is…and thus essentially take abortion off the table for 2024.

But the lack of ads attacking Trump or lauding Harris indicates that Team Harris is still getting its act together – they haven’t worked out their message and haven’t put together a strategy for the Fall. Do keep that very much in mind: Harris is nothing more than a stop-gap. A desperate ploy to get rid of Biden who was ushering in a down ballot meltdown for Democrats. So far, Harris is doing what she was supposed to do – stabilize the field. Going from there to 270 is a very tall order, though. Harris is still Harris; someone so bad that she didn’t even make it to Iowa in 2020 and who some were trying to boot from the VP slot earlier this year. And as Harris gets out there – and as the anti-Harris ads from Team Trump get repeated on a loop – we might find that Harris is as toxic as Biden.

Team Harris’ first bit of genius was to work up “White Women for Harris”…where a bunch of looney-tunes Karens talked up how white chicks gotta defer to black women…but also vote for Harris to make up for their support for racism. Not sure how well that will play with people outside the wine mom demographic. Their next step is the upcoming “White Dudes for Harris” which will apparently be headlined by David Hogg, Adam Schiff and Pete Buttigieg. Errr…not sure how this expands Harris’ support. This aside from the fact of the racial segregation. As a joke Trump should have a “Rednecks for Trump” Zoom call…in fact, maybe not as a joke. Heck, I’ll get into overalls and rent a hound dog for that. Team Harris is touting that 80,000 “dudes” have signed up for the event…”Rednecks” would get a million participants, easy.

Bottom line is that I don’t think Team Harris knows what to do here – or, worse for them, they think they do know and what they’re doing is playing Woke Team Intersectionality while asserting that Trump and Vance are the weirdos.

Meanwhile, Venezuela had an election. Why? Because the “deal” Team Pudding Brain made with Maduro was for us to lift sanctions on Maduro’s thug regime in return for an election. Maduro kept his word – he had an election. And after forcing his primary opponent off the ballot and using every manner of fraud in the book…he still lost. But then just announced he had won. He can do this because he has all the guns. It was a box checked off some years ago: confiscate all civilian firearms.

There is widespread unrest in Venezuela because the steal was so brazen but the bottom line is that if the people don’t have guns, they can’t win. There are some rumors that some army units are joining the people and if that is so, there is a chance…but no guns, no revolution. It is that simple: guns = liberty. In truth, there is only one free nation on Earth: the United States with our Second Amendment. Maybe Switzerland a bit but even there I doubt they secure a right to bear arms…it is more that you’re part of the militia and the government provides a weapon, revocable at will.

UPDATE:

“JD Vance and Trump are weird!” – Democrats

Also Democrats:

Man, am I Tired Open Thread

Mark Noonan12 Comments

We left Del Mar yesterday at 12:15 pm. We arrived home at 3:44 am. Why?

Well, because we have enviro-idiots demanding we go green, we are shipping truckloads of lithium batteries around the country and, in the nature of lithium batteries, one truckload of these exploded into flames on I-15 northbound…forcing the closure of the entire road for about 18 hours. This caused all traffic northbound on I-15 to be rerouted the roundabout way to Vegas – I-40 to Needles (just north of there, actually) and then US-95 into Vegas. Trouble is that I-40 is a much smaller road and it went down to just one lane each way due to construction. It took us 8 hours to go 77 miles! So, very tired this fine morning! And wondering if there is a PhD with the skills to calculate the carbon footprint of a truckload of burning lithium batteries combined with thousands of cars and trucks crawling along I-40 at less than 10 mph.

Also mildly curious about what we’re going to do if there’s a terrorist attack on our infrastructure – there are those two ways between LA and Vegas – I-15 and I-40. Shut both of them down via just a couple well placed bombs and just what happens to our economy? We’ve spent trillions on infrastructure and it is soft as butter. And I guess none of the geniuses in our National Security State ever thought that between major roads there should be first-rate lateral communication just in case something goes wrong. But I’m sure our DEI checklists are all filled out.

Anyways, wasn’t able to pay full attention to politics this last week because things like beach, food and beer commanded a great deal of attention. But I did see the cowardly, bet-wetting panic all over Right social media about Harris. As if she was this super-genius the Democrats had been hiding for decades, just to spring on us at the last moment.

No. She’s an idiot. She’s a commie. She’s taken every stupid position the Left has demanded since she entered public life. She’s a desperate stop-gap the Democrats were forced to turn to after Biden imploded and DEI requirements prevented anyone better from getting the slot. Meanwhile, our guy just forced out a sitting President after surviving an assassination attempt. Seriously, guys: grow a pair.

Now, can Harris win? Of course she can. The commie cancer is deeply embedded in the United States. At bare minimum 40% of the American people nod like morons when someone says “AmeriKKKa is a racist nation”. There’s no way around that in the short term. To get Harris to 270 they need to convince another 10% that another round of welfare spending is the way to go – and/or convince them that Trump is a hairy ogre out to get them. This can be done – especially with the MSM entirely in the tank for her. And as I’ve said all along this election cycle: if we lose, then we never had a chance anyway…the cancer will prove too strong to cure.

But I do not think we will lose. Harris is getting a glow based on MSM slobbering all over her. They are naturally producing polls with a Democrat-favorable results. But, here’s the thing: even the polls showing Harris ahead show her losing. Just like Biden, she has to be, at minimum, +3 in the RCP averages on Election Day to have a chance at getting to 270. A chance, guys; Biden “won” in 2020 based on 40k or so votes across 4 States in a D+5 environment. Harris’ path to victory starts out narrow – and Team Trump is already working to narrow it via a series of devastating ads which merely restate what Harris has said. How is it going? Harris’ people are already lying and saying that Harris will not ban fracking…this proves conclusively that at this moment her own polling shows her losing Pennsylvania. Team Trump is focused, disciplined and quite ruthless – they even had a memo out shortly after Pudding Brain dropped out telling us precisely what would happen…MSM orgasm, polls good for Harris…and then they’ll set to work correcting this.

In the end, we place our trust in God; we know how this comes out. And we have a little bit of faith in the man Trump, who has been through hell for us and is still standing. We don’t doom-monger. We don’t get overconfident but we remain confident.