Mish gathered the details:
- US Payrolls +117,000
- US Unemployment Rate -.1 to 9.1%
- Participation Rate -.2 to 63.9% accounting for drop in unemployment rate
- Actual number of Employed (by Household Survey) fell by 38,000
- Unemployment rose by 156,000
- Those dropping out of the labor force rose by 374,000
- Civilian population rose by 182,000, Labor Force declined by 193,000
- Average Weekly Workweek was unchanged at 34.3 hours
- Average Private Hourly Earnings Increased by 10 Cents
- Government employment decreased by 37,000 – a genuine bright-spot
Without that drop in the labor force, unemployment would have risen – as soon as I saw the headline number of +117,000 and a drop in unemployment I knew, without even checking, that something was wrong. If we gained 250,000 jobs a month, unemployment would remain high for years. A plus 117K just wasn’t enough to lower the unemployment rate unless someone decided that fewer people were in the labor force. Presto!, that is what we got. Amazing, huh? Great how that works out when we’ve got a President desperately seeking re-election…
UPDATE: The headline that says it all, from Bloomberg:
Bernanke Models Prove Faulty as Fed Forecasts Succumb to Downward Revision