Behind the Unemployment Numbers

Mish gathered the details:

  • US Payrolls +117,000
  • US Unemployment Rate -.1 to 9.1%
  • Participation Rate -.2 to 63.9% accounting for drop in unemployment rate
  • Actual number of Employed (by Household Survey) fell by 38,000
  • Unemployment rose by 156,000
  • Those dropping out of the labor force rose by 374,000
  • Civilian population rose by 182,000, Labor Force declined by 193,000
  • Average Weekly Workweek was unchanged at 34.3 hours
  • Average Private Hourly Earnings Increased by 10 Cents
  • Government employment decreased by 37,000 – a genuine bright-spot

Without that drop in the labor force, unemployment would have risen – as soon as I saw the headline number of +117,000 and a drop in unemployment I knew, without even checking, that something was wrong.  If we gained 250,000 jobs a month, unemployment would remain high for years.  A plus 117K just wasn’t enough to lower the unemployment rate unless someone decided that fewer people were in the labor force.  Presto!, that is what we got.  Amazing, huh?  Great how that works out when we’ve got a President desperately seeking re-election…

UPDATE:  The headline that says it all, from Bloomberg:

Bernanke Models Prove Faulty as Fed Forecasts Succumb to Downward Revision

65 thoughts on “Behind the Unemployment Numbers

  1. doug August 5, 2011 / 11:54 am

    I betcha that the numbers that were released today differed greatly from the numbers that were supposed to be released today as of yesterday. After the stock markets did their thing those numbers were adjusted. Who called whom last night, that would be the interesting question.

  2. Retired Spook August 5, 2011 / 12:07 pm

    The labor market participation rate is the lowest in nearly 3 decades. 90 days ago the DJIA was closing in on 13,000. Today it’s fighting to hold on to 11,000. But our resident financial guru, Thomas says it’s all good, so…………….

  3. Thomasg0102 August 5, 2011 / 12:10 pm


    you didn’t answer my question from the other day. I will pose it again.

    What was the stock market at on January 20, 2009, and what is it at today? I am sure if it’s up since that time, you would give the President credit for it right? I know you liked to give credit to Bush for the market under his watch, so let’s see you duplicate your honesty…

    As far as the economy goes, participation rate will go up when the hiring starts. We don’t live in a vacuum. And as another note, the employment numbers for may and june were revised UPwards.

    • Mark Noonan August 5, 2011 / 12:22 pm


      Labor force participation always goes down during a bad economy…but we’re supposed to be in a recovery, right? Per you, things are getting better…then why was the participation rate 65.3% in July of 2010 but 63.9% in July of 2011? Why were there 140,130,000 people employed back then, but only 139,296,000 now? Isn’t your man Obama’s economic program “saving and creating” jobs? If that is the case, shouldn’t we at least have 140,130,001 people employed in the United States right now?

      We peaked at our number of employed at 146,584,000 in November of 2007 – when does Obamunism get us back to that level? Labor force participation when Obama took office was 65.7%, when do we get back to that level? When does all the good stuff come from the trillions borrowed and printed?

      • Thomasg0102 August 5, 2011 / 2:12 pm


        DUH! everything you say is factually correct but yet doesn’t mean anything. We are RECOVERING from a very bad economy.

        Did you really expect it to be better in 2 years? I’d say it will take at least 5 or 7 to improve to levels we were at in 2007.

        Before it’s all back, we could very well be facing what Japan did….a lost decade.

        That’s not anyone’s fault more than it’s someone elses. Both parties have had a hand since 2000 in allowing bubbles and eventually causing this downturn.

        But for you to imply that just because Obama is President, he is somehow doing worse than McCain would have is idiotic.

    • Cluster August 5, 2011 / 12:33 pm

      I think a good question to ask thomas would be to ask how many jobs he has created. Obviously he has some experience in job creation. So what is that number thomas?

      • Thomasg0102 August 5, 2011 / 2:10 pm


        I have created, i’d say about 4 jobs over the past year. I am in a position of being able to hire people on my team and I have added 4 new members bringing the total to 14.

        ps. you don’t have to be a job creater to know how to create jobs in the economy via legislation or policy decisions. Just like you don’t have to live in the 17th century to be a 17th century historian. But obviously you’re to dense to understand that.

      • tiredoflibbs August 6, 2011 / 10:25 am

        wow, tommy-boy, you did 400% better than what the obAMATEUR did.

        Carney admitted that the White House cannot create jobs. So, all the speak of how obAMATEUR’s policies created or saved XXX million jobs (the numbers keep increasing as his approval ratings keep dropping) is nothing but lies!!!

    • Retired Spook August 5, 2011 / 1:04 pm

      spook, you didn’t answer my question from the other day. I will pose it again.

      When you answer my oft-repeated question about whether or not you would work for me under a “living” employment contract or play poker with me using “living” rules, then I’ll answer your question about the ups and downs of the stock market.

      • Thomasg0102 August 5, 2011 / 2:08 pm

        the fact that you can’t even admit the obvious and refuse to answer a legitimate question because of your ideology toward this President says all I need to know about you as a person, and a man.

        The constitution has been interpreted differently over time. At one time, it was interpreted to accept separate but equal, slavery, and many more issues.

        The fact that you deny the evolution of our society, and culture as a whole and insist that we interpret the constitution as it should be according to YOUR point of view is simply idiotic.

        There is a reason it’s called PROGRESS.

      • Cluster August 5, 2011 / 2:59 pm

        Thomas, do you have an ideology?

      • Thomasg0102 August 5, 2011 / 3:05 pm

        Absolutely I do.

      • Cluster August 5, 2011 / 3:24 pm

        Then why do you scold others for theirs?

      • Retired Spook August 5, 2011 / 3:31 pm

        the fact that you can’t even admit the obvious and refuse to answer a legitimate question because of your ideology toward this President says all I need to know about you as a person, and a man.

        So, that would be a “no”; you can’t answer whether you would work for me under a “living” employment contract or play poker with me using “living” rules. That’s all I need to know about YOU as a person and a man boy.

      • tiredoflibbs August 6, 2011 / 10:32 am

        tommy-boy gets it wrong again: “The constitution has been interpreted differently over time. At one time, it was interpreted to accept separate but equal, slavery, and many more issues.”

        Uh, tommy-boy, freeing the slaves, for example, was not done by an act of interpretation, but through the appropriate amendment process.

        This interpretation of Constitution has only recently occurred (within 50 years) to change its meaning and create rights where there are none.

        This “living” Constitution, to change with the times, is BS. The Founding Fathers put in place a mechanism to change it as society “evolves”. The problem is liberals don’t like the process because it does not happen fast enough for their needs.

        Try again, drone.

    • Retired Spook August 5, 2011 / 8:08 pm

      OK, Thomas; I’ll answer your question.

      Wall Street provided an unwelcome reminder of the financial challenge facing Barack Obama as it marked the new president’s inauguration with a stock market plunge led down by a renewed crisis of confidence in US banks.

      The Dow Jones Industrial Average suffered its worst one-day drop since December 1, slumping by 332 points to 7,949. It was the blue-chip index’s first fall below 8,000 since November and all 30 Dow components were in the red by the end of the day.

      So, the day before Obama was inaugurated, the DOW stood at 8,281. 60 days later, it responded to the stimulus by dropping to around 6,500. Since then, thanks primarily to free or nearly free money pumped into the U.S. banking system by the Fed, and the rise of computerized flash trades, comprising up to 70% of trading volume, the market steadily rose to over 13,800. When Obama warned that, if we didn’t solve the debt crisis, the market would tank, we solved the debt crisis, and the market promptly tanked 1,500 points.

      Now will you play poker with me using living rules — my living rules, BTW?

  4. Navydad August 5, 2011 / 12:17 pm

    What hiring Tommy Boy??? My rich, white, jet-flyin, benz-drivin buddies aren’t turning loose of one cent until this POS prez and his moron VP step down…or get thrown down…period.

    Boy, you libtards just don’t listen….geez!

    • neocon1 August 5, 2011 / 12:38 pm


      Psalm 109:8

      Id pay to see thrown out
      tommygasbag thinks being a paid TROLL for media matters counts as a “job”
      good luk wit dat!

    • Thomasg0102 August 5, 2011 / 2:06 pm

      navy gal,

      I know you’re lying when you start with: My rich……

      we all know you’re a hoodrat living in the empoverished southern states.

      let’s be real here.

      • neocon1 August 5, 2011 / 2:14 pm


        a hoodrat living in the empoverished southern states

        Guess you have never seen these kid……

        detroit, LA, NO, Newark, kansas city, chicago, DC, harlem, watts, and EVERY big northern city……
        you look dumber every day drone and six months ago I thought that was impossible.

      • Cluster August 5, 2011 / 2:55 pm

        And why in the world would we believe one word that you say thomas? Incidentally GDP is lower today than it was in 2007. In fact, GDP has constricted every year since 2007 and coincidentally, Pelosi and the marry bank of liberals took control of Congress and the Senate in January 2007. Just a coincidence, right?

      • neocon1 August 5, 2011 / 3:09 pm


        Maybe you can visit with Barney Frank.

        he would have to kick you or Obama out to visit.
        maybe you could put up with larry sinclair……

    • Thomasg0102 August 5, 2011 / 2:14 pm

      navy gal,

      your buddies drive trucks with confederate flags on the back bumper…not Mercedes Benz.

      We Germans didn’t make that car so white trash could ride it, or wannabe military fakers (think neo). It’s for sophisticated, educated, well to do people.

      • neocon1 August 5, 2011 / 2:17 pm


        seems the hood ornaments along wit alarm clocks worn around the neck are status symbols for some, why is that?
        Is that like the X hats we saw for years?

        Ten K any day canary ass

      • neocon1 August 5, 2011 / 2:20 pm

        is that why Obomba rides in limo back seats with larry sinclair?

      • Cluster August 5, 2011 / 2:57 pm

        I recently saw, what looked like a drug dealer, and his hooker girlfriend in a Mercedes.

      • Thomasg0102 August 5, 2011 / 3:03 pm

        so now you’re in the business of profiling? really?

        let me guess….you think he was a dealer why? and his gf was a whore why?

        I can’t wait to hear your answers on those….

      • Cluster August 5, 2011 / 3:18 pm

        Maybe it was the sleeve of tats, the pierced nose and the rolex, and sitting beside him was a scantily clad, methed up looking chick – not exactly the high brow clientele you seem to think drive Mercedes.

      • thomasg0102 August 5, 2011 / 3:50 pm

        then it’s a shame those people drive Mercedes Benz cars.

      • Amazona August 6, 2011 / 9:03 pm

        Sasan opines, about the automobile real Germans make, not the Iranians: “It’s for sophisticated, educated, well to do people.”

        Well, it’s about time snotty little Sasan admitted that I am, in fact, sophisticated, educated, and even well to do.; My S500 and I thank you. When I find the perfect fully original mint condition 450 SL to add to my collection I guess I should let you know, eh? (We horse people say “A good horse is never the wrong color” but I am learning this is not the case with cars, even those gorgeous classic Mercs. There were some verrrry strange Mercedes colors in the 70s.))

        Fortunately by the time these classic beauties were being made, the old style racist German was well out of style, so your impotent efforts at insult (funny how that word keeps popping up regarding Sasan, isn’t it? Well, not exactly UP….) with your comment about “white trash” just adds to body of evidence that you are an Iranian faker.

    • Count d'Haricots August 5, 2011 / 2:26 pm


      Going to be in your area again in September but we’ll be traveling with friends so we still can’t take you up on the visit offer.

      We’re hoping to make another trip up there next spring in the Benz roadster, I’ll send photos.

      btw, you remember Sasan (mza330/GT Graduate/thomasg0102) don’t you? His whore girlfriend must be out with other men again because he’s back with another fraud personality. Ignore him, he’s the same imbecile he was under the last dozen names he’s used here.

      • neocon1 August 5, 2011 / 2:28 pm


        send me the pics also if you dont mind….Mark or Mr X can provide you with my E mail add.

      • Count d'Haricots August 5, 2011 / 2:33 pm

        Sure thing neo. Can I send a photo to Mark and have him forward, or do you release him to send me your email?

      • neocon1 August 5, 2011 / 2:38 pm

        have him send you my E mail

      • Thomasg0102 August 5, 2011 / 2:56 pm

        I can see absent of any real points to make about the economy. Count of can’t goes to speculation about me or my German background.

        He also apparently has a crush on this guy he keeps mentioning. To each his own. Maybe you can visit with Barney Frank.

      • Retired Spook August 5, 2011 / 4:00 pm

        Sure thing neo. Can I send a photo to Mark and have him forward, or do you release him to send me your email?

        Count, Neo’s email is on it’s way. No need to bother Mark.

      • Count d'Haricots August 5, 2011 / 4:15 pm

        Got it, thanks, I’ll cc you because I enjoy sharing photos of the Benz.

      • Retired Spook August 5, 2011 / 8:09 pm

        Count, that really is a sweeeeeeet ride.

      • Amazona August 7, 2011 / 8:47 pm

        When I find my own sweet ride I am going to visit the Count and we can compare. He inspired me, you know.

  5. Cluster August 5, 2011 / 2:58 pm

    Thomas, will you cry when Obama is defeated in 2012? Just curious. You seem to be very emotionally attached to him.

    • Thomasg0102 August 5, 2011 / 3:01 pm


      did you cry when the GOP lost majorities in the house in 2006. Or when McCain lost in 2008.

      You project way to much old timer, I think it’s best you stick to whatever it is you do in whatever poor southern state.

      and gdp is lower today than in 2007? Really?

      next time, don’t lie aobut something that can be checked so easily. GDP (PPP) has gone UP since 2007. Will you give the same credit to the Dems now which you were so eager to take away a second ago?


      • neocon1 August 5, 2011 / 3:11 pm


        let me guess….you think he was a dealer why? and his gf was a whore why?

        they were pulling out of the white (painted) house??

      • Cluster August 5, 2011 / 3:15 pm

        Wow, you are really sensitive about your boy in the WH, but hey, I have a feeling that your attachment is deeper than you think. Here’s a little homework for you courtesy of the NYT

        Data revisions going back to 2003 also showed that the 2007-2009 recession was deeper, and the recovery to date weaker, than originally estimated. Indeed, the latest figures show that the nation’s economy is actually smaller than it was in 2007, when the Great Recession officially began.

      • thomasg0102 August 5, 2011 / 3:49 pm

        GDP numbers are better understood and quantified if you look at them in terms of PPP.

        DO some research, a little bit of self education to make yourself a more informed, productive citizen.

        Hell don’t, I don’t really care, I am just trying to help you.

  6. Cluster August 5, 2011 / 3:23 pm

    Isn’t thomas refreshing? If we ever wondered if liberals were haters, sexists, demagogues, demonizers and ignorant, all we have to do is read some of thomas’s posts. He is the epitome of liberalism, in all his glory.

    • Count d'Haricots August 5, 2011 / 4:22 pm

      He’s just upset because he bought a used car and found his girlfriend’s panties under the seat.

      • thomasg0102 August 5, 2011 / 4:42 pm

        they were actually your wife’s panties.

        you went in chin first on that one sport.

      • tiredoflibbs August 5, 2011 / 6:38 pm

        tommy boy, of course there were his wife’s panties, you bought the car from Count and did not know it!!

        Count didn’t walk into anything. As usual, you are a little too late on the upswing.

      • bardolf August 5, 2011 / 6:59 pm


        are you saying the Count married Thomas’s ex-girlfriend and what does this have to do with the Benz that she bought him to tool around in?

        I’m easily confused.

      • Count d'Haricots August 5, 2011 / 10:17 pm

        I wouldn’t touch Sasan’s whore wih your’s much less mine.

        That’s not to say everyone else in thomas’ neighborhood didn’t, he’s admitted as much on the lonely hearts’ website.

  7. thomasg0102 August 5, 2011 / 3:46 pm

    post calling Conservatives modern-day “Nazis” deleted//Moderator

    • Green Mountain Boy August 5, 2011 / 4:11 pm

      Well at least that made sense. Keep it up.

      • thomasg0102 August 5, 2011 / 4:15 pm


        so let me get this straight. You can call liberals fascists and cluster can call liberals haters, sexists, demagogues, demonizers and ignorant…..and that’s ok.

        But when someone calls you a Nazi. you get offended and delete the post?

        I have to say, you’re one fair chap! NOT! if you were any more partisan and any more untruthful, you’d be Dick Cheney.

      • tiredoflibbs August 5, 2011 / 4:36 pm

        tommy boy whines: “can call liberals haters, sexists, demagogues, demonizers and ignorant…..”

        Uh, tommy-boy, you call conservatives and any other non-liberals “haters, sexists, demagogues, demonizers and ignorant…..” and your posts stay up.

        Calling someone a Nazi is against the rules at B4V and is public knowledge, if you choose to ignore it….

        Grow a spine, will you?

    • Count d'Haricots August 5, 2011 / 4:28 pm

      Thanks moderator, I was offended by the nazi remark by the fascist, hater, sexist, demagogue, demonizer (sic) and ignorant homophobic anti-American thomas.

      • thomasg0102 August 5, 2011 / 4:35 pm

        Ha. the white cigar smoker shows his true colors.

        have you ever read the book called the God delusion?

        you remind me of the kind of people who they mention in that book.

  8. Count d'Haricots August 5, 2011 / 4:14 pm

    Sasan seems angry today, I think its because his girlfriend cut him down to twice a week.

    That’s nothing; she cut three other guys off altogether.

    • thomasg0102 August 5, 2011 / 4:16 pm

      your obsession with this person is freaky.

      not to mention you don’t have any evidence to back up your claim. I guess that’s the conservative white man way….make a false claim, and repeat it often enough until you’re convinced!

      • neocon1 August 5, 2011 / 4:42 pm


        conservative white man way

        so you are NEITHER????

      • neocon1 August 5, 2011 / 4:45 pm

        white cigar smoker

        I thought you were “German”?
        you are really a Kenyan?
        0 to tommy hey Bloooood yo yo yo

      • Retired Spook August 5, 2011 / 8:13 pm

        Give it up, Sasan; you’re busted and you know it. Well, as dense as you are, you may not know it, but I guarantee everyone else does. I even printed out a copy of your photo and taped it over my dartboard.

      • thomasg0102 August 6, 2011 / 2:17 am

        So spook,

        Are you going to post this persons picture on this site?

        You conservative paranoid kooks really crack me up. I want you to prove it and show us how you know I mreally someone else…..I’d really like to know.

        And as far as you printing a picture of another man out and using it on a dartboard as a target goes to show your state of mind….you and amazon the stalker must really enjoy each others company.

  9. Navydad August 5, 2011 / 5:59 pm

    I could have sworn it was proven GT Grad/TommyBoy was a he/she.

    • neocon1 August 6, 2011 / 11:10 am

      tommy aka sasan is a rag head from iran.
      go fly your magic prayer carpet else where like your houston neighborhood moo haMAD!

  10. Amazona August 6, 2011 / 8:55 pm

    From Numbers USA:

    The jobs market received a small boost this morning with news that the economy added 117,000 jobs in the month of July. But………. the job creation falls short of the 125,000 foreign workers that received new work permits last month.


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