JD Vance

Open Thread

Mark Noonan4 Comments

I watched a little bit of Hannity’s interview of Vance and while I can’t recall Vance’s exact words, I was impressed when discussing military matters that he seems to understand that there have been huge changes in war fighting capability (and there will be even more going forward) and that is essentially time to think anew and act anew. This is an excellent and necessary first step as our military was built for the Cold War and then downsized while starting to concentrate on battling insurgency…but its mindset is still mostly Cold War…like we’re about to be faced with 10,000 Russian tanks pouring through the Fulda Gap in Germany. Neither the Ukrainians nor Russians have given a really good account of themselves in the war (probably poor leadership on both sides causing this) but they have given us some hints about what’s coming…and how difficult it is to move against any sort of alert and entrenched defense.

We all recall WWI when the cannon and the machine gun ruled the battlefield and the whole problem was that they prevented the stronger allied army from imposing its will on the weaker German army…until it was found that if you put a plate of steel on a tracked vehicle, you could get at the machine guns and artillery. Most military thinking still seems to be built around the idea that you’ll dash ahead with your tanks and other armored vehicles, break the enemy line and press on to victory. But what I’m seeing in Ukraine is that armored vehicles don’t dare show themselves…drone-fired and man-portable anti-tank weapons are making it difficult for armor to even properly engage the enemy. I believe this is why the Ukraine war has become a trench-war stalemate.

And, so, it was refreshing to see that Vance is clearly thinking about this – about how remotely operated weapons and such are altering battlefield conditions and so we must adjust ourselves to the new reality. My view is that we’re going to want to comprehensively develop this concept…what I’d like to have is the ability at the start of any conflict to essentially shut down the enemy. Destroy his ability to move and communicate and you’ll also destroy his ability to shoot (or at least shoot with any prospect of success). Remember the Germans produced 4,400 tanks in the last 4 months of the war but hardly any of them made it to a battlefield because German road and rail systems had been destroyed by bombing. These days, drones can probably drop every bridge in a medium-sized nation within hours of the start of a fight…that, alone, will destroy their ability to move efficiently.

From what I can tell, the efforts to block Trump’s nominees are failing – even Gabbard and RFK seem set to cruise through. Part of this is the realization even by the RINOs that there is huge primary risk in actually stopping a nominee. Part of it is that the Democrats are stuck on stupid. Shrieking, ignorant stump speeches in the committee hearings rather than actual questions. On the other side of it, all Trump’s picks are clearly intelligent people who have thought about things.

The Department of Defense will no longer fly a female soldier around for abortions. This was Biden policy that if you were stationed in a Red State and needed to whack your kid he’d pay to fly you to a Blue State where it could be done. To me, just weird – the concept of a female soldier is based around the Strong Woman Who Don’t Need No Man…but who apparently can’t exercise a little self control on the weekends and so needs a plane ticket from Alabama to California. Which is it, Liberals? Pick one.

All the hot chicks are with us and this is upsetting the people who can’t get dates – in this case, a hot correspondent is being condemned for her clothes by the people who covered up Biden’s laptop.

Democrats are having their DNC meeting to pick new leadership and figure out why they lost. They are confident it was because of sexism and racism. So, we’re certain that Trump still has moles in the DNC. These people really have learned nothing…but, in a sense, they can’t. Any admission that they got it wrong means that several parts of the Democrat coalition will walk out…go third party and stay third party thus simply handing power to the GOP for a generation. The downside here is that refusal to jettison the most lunatic parts of the coalition will continually alienate the overall electorate. On the other hand, don’t get too cocky, GOPers: I can’t remember the state (think it was South Dakota) but this past Tuesday a special election for State legislative seat in a district that was Trump +24 flipped to the Dems. Special elections are strange and the Dems have gotten really good at flipping special election seats because turnout is so low but the bottom line is that without Trump on the ballot, the GOP does have a turnout problem. The GOP had better start giving people a reason to vote for them or we might have problems.

Open Thread

Mark Noonan33 Comments

A lot of recent polling indicates that whatever momentum Harris was getting after the coup against Biden, it is fading fast. Personally, I don’t think it ever really happened but there are only so many thumbs you can put on the scale before your poll becomes such garbage that you lose credibility entirely…there was a gap of at least several days in polling before the most recent releases and my guess on that is that they were finding what was, in the end, found: even with thumbs on the scale, Trump was at worst holding position to get past 270.

As per usual in all elections, it will be decided by who shows up. Gallup’s most recent party ID poll had the electorate R+6. All of us doubt that – but maybe we shouldn’t. Someone pointed out on X that after months of good polling for Trump GOPers were still dooming and glooming while a week of good polling for Harris got Democrats seriously claiming they’d flip Texas and Utah. We’re just built to be Debbie Downers, aren’t we? We’re so used to losing that we can’t envision winning. Maybe we should start to act like winners? Trump sure seems confident – at the worst of the Kamala-mentum he was out there golfing and nailing it. Any golfer will tell you that if you’re stressed you’ll do poorly. Trump wasn’t stressed in the least.

Keep in mind that public polls are “free” and are therefore designed for a purpose. None of them are agenda-free. Sometimes it is far more subtle than others, but if someone gives you something for free then they want something out of you. Your grandmother can give you a free lunch – everyone else is working an angle. Meanwhile, both parties have pollsters who are crucial in determining which States to spend time and money in. These people don’t mess around. If you’re such a pollster and you steer candidates wrong, you’ll be out of work. Both Team Trump and Team Harris know the state of the race – and they are pouring money into Pennsylvania, especially after Labor Day (oddly, so far Team Trump has reserved about 50% more time in PA than Team Harris – Harris almost certainly can’t get past 270 without PA…so being heavily outspent seems weird…but might also mean that the supposed record-breaking fundraising she did after the coup was just a story; of course, Team Harris might push up their numbers in PA as they see Team Trump do it).

If Gallup is right, or even if its R+2, Harris has an impossible task – there simply won’t be enough votes out there to get to 270…probably not even enough to win the popular vote, even with CA and NY voting for her in droves. R+1 to D+2 means Harris has to draw an inside straight just to get to 270. D+3 its a complete tossup. The polls are mostly predicated upon D+3 to D+5. So, we see lots of polls showing tossup or a slight Harris advantage. And if the electorate is D+5 then, yeah, Trump is going to lose. He simply won’t be able to find enough votes to get past 270. But there is zero indication that the electorate will be worse for Trump than even on party ID – voter registration and primary voting patterns all indicate an electorate more GOP than polling suggests.

Who shows up: that decides it.

And do note that Team Trump is expending efforts to drag low-propensity voters to the polls. These are people who do vote but only in Presidential years and even then not all the time. Lots of polling shows Trump absolutely crushing it with this demographic. Trouble is: they don’t vote all the time. It isn’t an absolute necessity that Trump get these people to show, but if he’s successful in doing so, what in polling today is a tight race becomes a blowout win for Trump. We’ll see if Team Trump’s bet on this pays off.

Harris’ first big policy roll out has been to steal some Trump policies and add a bunch of Communism. You should hear her border ad in Nevada – to listen to it, you’d think she’s a MAGA border hawk. It stops just half an inch before “build the wall”. It is a nauseating lie – if she wins she’ll do nothing to control the border. In fact, it’ll be a signal to let 20 million or more in. But that she’s running the ads shows (a) she’s very weak on the issue and (b) Trump has moved the window on it…just by talking about it over and over and over again. Open borders is simply unpopular. Even pluralities of Democrats favor closing the border. I’ve seen polling where majorities of Latinos favor mass deportations. Trump has won the immigration debate – of course, it only becomes reality if he wins. Anyone else will simply mouth some words and keep the bodies flowing.

But the Communism is the thing – and it is working out badly for Harris. Her program of essentially imposing price controls is being panned even in parts of the Left. Everyone who thinks at all knows it is a bad idea. The inflation is because of the government spending money it doesn’t have. Everyone knows that the only way to get inflation to halt is to dial back government spending while increasing domestic production until rising wealth restores the equilibrium we had in 2019. Her bizarre idea of providing 25 grand to new home buyers is being noticed as the pandering it is – with plenty of comments from current homeowners about how its not exactly fair to shovel cash at some people and not others.

Walz continues to be a drag on Harris – not in polling, but there’s some nonsense in that. But the crucial thing – and the thing least likely to show in general national polling – is how veterans view Walz. Most civilians simply won’t understand how infuriating it is to any veteran to see someone fake their record. Sea stories are fine – appreciated (Old joke: what’s the difference between a sea story and a fairy tale? A fairy tale begins with “once upon a time” while a sea story begins with “no sh*t”). But to lie about actual service is despised. We all honor each other’s service – doesn’t matter where you were assigned; if you showed up and did your job, you’re one of us. Sure, there is extra honor accorded to those who had to really get down into the mud and blood, but no veteran denigrates those who served. All veterans pledged their lives and that’s good enough. But to lie about it – to appropriate valor and suffering not endured – is just disgusting to veterans. And to do it – like Walz – to burnish a resume for political purposes is just beyond the pale. Recent polling in Virginia shows it close – and this after the coup. That is Virginia’s massive veteran population. There are lots of bureaucrats in northern Virginia voting with their paymasters in DC…but tidewater Virginia is packed to the gills with retired Marines and sailors who, I assure you , despise what Walz did. This could have a small but decisive effect on the result.

Meanwhile, JD Vance continues to impress. We all loved how the latest attack on him was someone dredging up a picture of a young Walz apparently down for the count after a bout of youthful drinking. Another showed him goofing off with some girls in the boys room. I don’t know what they were thinking on this one – all it did was make him more relatable. I mean, relatable to anyone who challenged Jose Cuervo to a duel in high school. This, I think, is most of us. But maybe not Liberals? I dunno. Maybe Liberals don’t have fun. Maybe that’s their problem? Anyways, the guy is turning into teflon – and I think he’ll mop the floor with that phony, Walz.

Trump-Vance, 2024

Mark Noonan48 Comments

Gotta say, I was a little surprised – I figured it would be Youngkin. But that might have been my bias: I thought he was best for the slot. But the decision has been made; the deed is done. No sense arguing about it any longer. This is our team: time to swing in behind it.

Vance does have an “American dream” story – he was born into abject poverty with a really bad family life. He rose above that. Very high above that. Even though standards have been dropped, getting into Yale Law still ain’t easy. So, the guy has some smarts. But he also seems to impress people…from working class to billionaires, people have come into his orbit and all seem willing to help him along to the next goal. To be sure, the billionaires do put a note of suspicion on him – but on the other hand, this guy from nowhere managed to get billionaires to back his dreams. It’s one thing when the scion of a rich family gets aid – that is just one rich stroking another. Putting money into a nobody is a risk – and you only do that if you think its worth it.

His wife is also “American Dream”: born in America of Indian immigrants (but much higher socio-economically than Vance), Usha Vance also has the Yale Law degree; they met in college. So, she’s also got some brains. Vance turns 40 next month so he is the youth and vigor for the team – and as he and his wife have three young children that will also strike a chord in a large segment of the electorate. Small side note and totally irrelevant: I’ve created a witch named Usha in Ghost Tower (Book X); she’s alluded to in Home World (Book IX). She is a horribly bad person but also kinda cool in that she can kill people via flames shooting out of her hands. I just hope that Mrs Vance doesn’t take offense!

Vance represents “Flyover America”. That is his thing – its what he’s for. His Hillbilly Elegy was all about it. Another side note: If Trump/Vance wins then for the first time we’ll have an Executive team made up of two New York Times Bestsellers (Trump for The Art of the Deal). I suspect that Vance was picked at least in part for his ability to connect with the alienated in the Rust Belt. Not GOPers – they’re already in Trump’s corner. I’m talking disaffected Democrats.

Within minutes of the pick the Left was out with a variety of hit pieces – I don’t think they’ve fully settled on whether he’s Worse Than Hitler or Hitler Lite, but that he’s some sort of Hitler is a given. Naturally they’re calling him racist (though with an Indian wife; weird, huh?), sexist, homophobic, fascist and all the rest. That “lowering the tone” speech Biden gave yesterday had about a 12 hour shelf life. But, we all expected that – hate and fear are all the Democrats have.

There were, naturally, the Nattering Nabobs of Negativism on the Right. People who wanted someone else. People who are just looking for a reason to attack Trump. Cowards who think we can’t win. I mostly ignored them. They are the people we used to lose with. Trump/Vance is the future; and that is where I’m looking. Can they lose? Of course they can. Anything is, always, possible. But I’m pretty confident it is Trump/Vance getting sworn in next January. Keep in mind: Trump was winning before the debate. He was winning comfortably after it. After Saturday, I think he’s well nigh unbeatable…certainly unbeatable by a frail, senile old creep. That will be as it will: as I’ve said all along, if we lose in 2024 then we never had a chance to begin with. Might as well joyfully enter the battle.

And I am joyful. Probably more happy than I’ve been about the future of our nation for a long, long while. I think we might have the people to actually get the reform ball rolling. I mean real reform; where things actually change. Not just window dressing on failure. There is much work to do – and much risk. The attempt on Saturday is revealing so much incompetence in the USSS that it is easy to get the feeling that they were intentionally inept. The Democrats have not stopped the incendiary rhetoric – and that will just increase as time goes on. Make no mistake about it: they do want a successful Saturday to happen. They hope that by continually stoking the fires that someone will make their dream come true. But the miracle of Saturday also gives me confidence that, as it always eventually does, right will triumph.