To be sure, Club For Growth would want such a poll result, but we’ve no reason to doubt their honesty:
A poll released today by the Club for Growth shows Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman surging into the lead in the special election in New York’s 23rd congressional district to replace John McHugh, the former congressman who recently became Secretary of the Army.
The poll of 300 likely voters, conducted October 24-25, 2009, shows Conservative Doug Hoffman at 31.3%, Democrat Bill Owens at 27.0%, Republican Dede Scozzafava at 19.7%, and 22% undecided. The poll’s margin of error is +/- 5.66%. No information was provided about any of the candidates prior to the ballot question.
This is the third poll done for the Club for Growth in the NY-23 special election, and Doug Hoffman is the only candidate to show an increase in his support levels in each successive poll. The momentum in the race is clearly with Hoffman.
Of course, its very hard to figure out who will really show up on election day, and that 22% undecided is certainly something which can end up being a game changer. On the other hand – it will be Hoffman voters who are most motivated. He just might pull this off.
UPDATE: DCCC has an ad hitting Hoffman. Its a stupid, class warfare ad…but it shows that the Democrats figure Hoffman is the man to beat.