Unemployment at 9.9%

Putting a positive spin on it, the State-Run Media is concentrating on the alleged creation of 290,000 jobs in April – but most of that is mere estimate. No one really knows how many jobs were created in April – the Bureau of Labor Statistics has this thing called a “birth/death” model which purports to predict how many jobs should be created at this or that period of the business cycle.

Today’s numbers presuppose an actual recovery – if we’re not in such, then BLS numbers are pretty much worthless. The bad news is that it’ll be about a year before we’ll find out if the BLS was right, or just pulling numbers out of thin air.

That said, while we’re up off the employment nadir of December, 2009, the fact remains that we’ve still lost a net of 7.8 million jobs since employment peaked in December of 2007, while since Obama became President we’ve lost about 3.4 million jobs.

And if, as I expect, this recovery is bogus…

UPDATE: Mish beaks down the jobs report.