And that seems to be the rosy scenario:
The U.S. economy lost 95,000 jobs in September, far worse than expectations for no change in employment. More Census-related temp jobs ended, as expected, but state and local governments slashed staff far more than predicted.
So far in 2010, the U.S. has added just 613,000 jobs — for a monthly average of 68,111.
Employment bottomed in December 2009 at 129.588 million — two years after peaking at 137.951 million. At this year’s pace, the U.S. won’t recoup all those 8.36 million lost jobs until March 2020 — 147 months after the December 2007 high…
And that supposes we actually added private sector jobs – I don’t think we have for several months now. Essentially, when you get the reported number of jobs created, its a guess by BLS…the real numbers don’t come in until about a year later. The BLS, basing itself upon the concept that the recession is over, figures that X number of jobs must have been created and so we get the jobs created number…a year later, when the actual data is available, they are adjusted to reflect what really happened. My bet is for heavy downward revisions.
We can’t spend our way out of this – we must work our way out of this. Our problem (outside of our crushing debt) is lack of production: we don’t make, mine or grow enough things in the United States. Until we balance the budget and set in place policies to encourage production, we’ll get nowhere.
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