At least, not in any sort of realistic time frame – Dian L. Chu over at Zero Hedge:
…According to a new paper by two researchers at the University of California – Davis, it would take 131 years for replacement of gasoline and diesel given the current pace of research and development; however, world’s oil could run dry almost a century before that…
…By incorporating market expectations into the model, the authors, Nataliya Malyshkina and Deb Niemeier, indicated that based on their calculation, the peak of oil production could occur between 2010 and 2030, before renewable replacement technologies become viable at around 2140.
The estimates not only delayed the alternative energy timeline, but also pushed up the peak oil deadline. The researchers suggest some previous estimates that pegged year 2040 as the time frame when alternatives would start to replace oil, could be “overly optimistic”…
And do remember this all includes all the government grants, subsidies and mandates for green energy. Even with that, it won’t work – we won’ t be able to replace fossil fuel before fossil fuel runs out. Not by a century – and that means that even if we subsidize and mandate even more, we still won’t be able to do the trick.
So, what does this all means? I means we need a genuinely comprehensive energy policy – the exploitation of all energy resources, all at once, as we go forward and eventually do replace fossil fuels with renewable energy. “Drill, baby, drill” really does have to be part of any energy plan we develop.
As always, the government “experts” can never get it right. This is because no matter how smart they are, they can never obtain sufficient information to know what, exactly, is happening out there. Obama and Co are trying to tell us they know what needs to be done – but they don’t know, and can’t know. Only a full fledged, do everything you can program can work – because that means that people will make their own decisions based upon their own needs, and thus provide whatever energy is needed.
The only place for government in energy policy is to clear the path – to get rid of taxes and regulations which hamper the natural development of both traditional and green energy. Free markets will do what we need, if we just get government out of the way.