Could be – Allahpundit reports over at Hot Air:
…the news of the day is none other than Ayman Nour telling a Lebanese TV station that it’s time to revisit the treaty with Israel. Nour isn’t some random talking head; he’s been in and out of prison for years for daring to demand liberal reforms from Mubarak’s regime, and actually went so far as to run against Mubarak for president in the rigged election of 2005. Not only is he a cause celebre in the west, he’s sufficiently prominent that Bush name-checked him in his speech on democracy in Prague back in 2007. He is, in other words, arguably the Egyptian dissident, a guy whom the U.S. theoretically might like to see elected president because his political sensibilities are so western.
And yet, even this guy is hint-hint-hinting that it’s time to tear up the Camp David accords. In fact, he’s pushing the same mechanism of repeal as a spokesman for the Muslim Brotherhood did last week — a popular referendum, in which Egypt’s Israel-hating public (favorable rating: 3/92) will torpedo the treaty in the name of popular sovereignty. The end of Camp David is likely a fait accompli no matter what democratic process Egypt ends up settling on…
I agree that a popular vote on the peace treaty with Israel would result in defeat for the peace treaty. This doesn’t mean that Egypt and Israel immediately go to war, but it would open up quite a rift…and we would swiftly see Israeli and Egyptian military forces eyeball to eyeball on the border of the Sinai…the Camp David accords essentially de-militarized the Sinai, and if the treaty goes, Egypt would be free to re-militarize…and probably swiftly would. All it takes from there is a spark to ignite a conflagration.
And so, once again, we are instructed that a “real” foreign policy is insane. The concept that we can place our security – or the security of our allies – on the pledge of tyrants is unsustainable. As long as the tyrant is in charge, it might be ok…but if the tyrant changes his mind or is forced out of office, then all bets are off. But now the bets will be off with Israel having surrendered the security of the Sinai (it gave massive strategic depth to Israel against Egypt; its a matter of having the large Egyptian army 100 miles from Israel, or just a stones throw). Now Israel will have to go on hair-trigger alert and be willing to reconquer the Sinai at warning of a possible Egyptian attack, even if the Egyptians don’t really mean it.
The best policy is one of avoidance of tyrants – leave them be, if possible; fight them until they are defeated, if necessary. Had we held to that policy, then Israel would still be holding the Sinai, we would not have given $60 billion to Mubarak’s regime and we’d be in a far better strategic position than we are now…and Israel would be safer, too. Doing what is right must be the guiding star of US policy, not what is expedient. Hopefully, that is what we’ll learn out of this.
Blogs For Victory 