Obama Losing African-American Support?

Last week, in an update to an open thread, I linked to an article which shows that under Obama black Americans have suffered greatly, with black unemployment rising to ruinous levels.  I asked, rhetorically, if these conditions will really cause black Americans to once again award 95% of their votes to Obama.  My thinking was, yes, it would.  Though I expect black turnout to be lower in 2012 as a percentage of the total vote than 2008, I fully expected a repeat of the overwhelming support for Obama.

Perhaps I was wrong – this poll (PDF) by the Democrat-leaning PPP shows Romney gaining the support of 20% of North Carolina African-American voters.  To be sure, the polling sample of black voters is small; about 200 respondents.  But, still – my goodness!  If Romney can really win 20% of the black vote then not only is Obama doomed but about 2o or 30 House seats suddenly become “in play” for the November election (the Democrats have about that many House seats which are theirs by gift of a 90%+ black vote in favor of the Democrats…if that drops a bit, the Democrats lose the seat).  It is  poll results like this which must be costing Axelrod many a sleepless night.

Count on it that Obama will sweep the African-American vote by an overwhelming majority – but if there is really any movement to Romney then it is going to be a stunning political change.  Maybe, at the end of the day it will take a black liberal to destroy African-American loyalty to the Democrats?

As an aside, the overall poll shows Romney up 48-46 over Obama in North Carolina – in line with the “battleground” status of North Carolina for 2012.  On the other hand, the polling sample is 44% Democrat, 36% Republican.  Almost certainly on November 6th the turnout will be more in line with 40%+ GOPer and no better than 35% or so Democrat…meaning that you can add at least 5 points to Romney’s total in this poll.  I never believed stories that North Carolina was competitive for the Democrats in 2012 and I’m more certain than ever it won’t be – watch for the Democrats to pull the plug on the State right after the convention.

4 thoughts on “Obama Losing African-American Support?

  1. neocon1 June 13, 2012 / 5:34 am

    How about barry soetoro…AKA, bark hussein Ubama ……..

    lets lose the hyphen racial and sexual BS “identities” where they belong – in the dumpster with the rest of socialism.

  2. Retired Spook June 13, 2012 / 8:18 am

    It isn’t just African American support that Obama has has to worry about.

    Is it time for Democrats to panic?

    That’s what a growing number of party loyalists are wondering, amid a rough couple of weeks in which President Obama and his political operation have been buffeted by bad economic news, their own gaffes and signs that the presumed Republican nominee is gaining strength.

  3. Cluster June 13, 2012 / 8:47 am

    I think the democrats are losing voters in most “categories” if you will, though I despise “categorizing” people. With his “evolution” on gay marriage, he lost a lot of religious minorities of which there are a lot of, especially in the Hispanic community. And his insistence that women are incapable of surviving without government is turning off a lot of women as well. In fact I believe the strongest part of the democratic base has been whittled down to public unions, and women who want the choice to kill their babies. However, Walker proved in WI, that if you give the people the choice of whether or not to pay for that public union, they won’t, so that again is a shining voting bloc.

    All in all, Obama has not done the democrats any favors. Maybe he wasn’t the one we have all been waiting for.

  4. Retired Spook June 13, 2012 / 9:10 am

    Another factor in this election that has yet to manifest itself is the price of oil. While oil has plummeted from around $110 to the low 80’s over the last 6 months, the price of gasoline has been relatively stable. In our area, most stations are still at around $3.85/gallon, or about where we were when oil was $20 higher. Still, eventually, the price of gas has to follow the price of oil, and that could give Obama a boost from a totally unexpected source.

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