A False Recovery

Lately, our liberals have been pumped over the stock market rising to record highs – to them (you know, the people who were occupying Wall Street in 2012), this is proof positive that Obama’s economic policies have worked.  I’ve been pointing out since 2009 that pumping fake money in to the economy merely allows everyone to hide the true economic facts and that eventually there will be a renewed collapse.  This inevitable collapse will be worse than the original crash as there is more debt and fake money infecting the economy.  I quite honestly didn’t expect that Bernanke and Obama could keep the ball in the air this long – I also didn’t think that anyone, not even a Ruling Class bankster like Bernanke, would be stupid enough (apparently) to think that he can print money forever.  These days, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Dow hits 20,000 – after all, when the latest ISM – Manufacturing report came out today showing economic contraction, the stock markets initially surged…likely because people believe that bad news means Bernanke will print even more, thus shoving stock prices higher.  But, still, reality is out there.

The reality is that Europe is in a crushing recession – indeed, with youth unemployment in some countries in the 50% range, its in a crushing Great Depression.  China’s economy wobbles along mired in hidden debt and massive corruption (and very fake official government economic reports).  And, I believe, we are in recession – and a recession with a nasty stock market and real estate bubble (sound familiar?).  This article over at Zero Hedge is the best description of our circumstances – and just why a high Dow isn’t a sign of economic health.  I heartily recommend reading it.  It concludes thusly:

A good case can be made for the fact that there is no recovery and that we are just beginning our decline. The efforts of government merely served to drive us more deeply into debt and stave off normal economic healing. If this observation is correct, all that has been accomplished is a postponement and accentuation of the pain to come. My economic sense tells me that is the case.

Whether you accept this conclusion or not, don’t be fooled by the performance of the stock market. There is little other than inflationary Fed policy to justify financial asset prices. Furthermore, recent performance really isn’t special as those living through the 1930s learned. In fact, what has happened recently doesn’t even measure up to the initial rebound that occurred during the Great Depression.

Time will come when this cannot be sustained.  Today, tomorrow, next week, next month, next year.  Pain cannot be avoided – a crash must and will come and it will hurt.  The only thing we can do is try to get some policies which will allow us to climb out of it swiftly.  Unfortunately, it is impossible for us to get such policies on a national scale until Obama leaves office.

62 thoughts on “A False Recovery

  1. Retired Spook June 3, 2013 / 12:42 pm

    There was an interesting event last week. After hovering at or below 2% for months, the yield on 10-year treasurys jumped 25 basis points last Wednesday. Immediately high dividend stocks like telcom and utilities underwent a massive sell-off, with many dropping 6-9% in one day. Having just bought a substantial number of shares of First Energy common stock back in mid-March, I was somewhat surprised. I bought at just under $40/share, a point at which the dividend yield was 5.5%. The price per share was also within a dollar of the one-year low and within $4 of the 4-year low, making it a very attractive investment, both in terms of long-term appreciation as well as dividend yield. A couple weeks ago, the stock was near $46/share, and I was patting myself on the back, looking at a paper profit of almost $4,000 in only 60 days. Now it’s back to where I bought it at just under $40. The good news is my first dividend check should arrive this week. Perhaps we have a financial guru here who could explain to me how an investment yielding 2.23% where any additional increase in the yield will cause the value of the underlying investment to go down causes a decline in an investment yielding over 5% with potential for appreciation.

  2. Retired Spook June 3, 2013 / 1:12 pm

    More on topic, does anyone think we can have meaningful economic growth with gas at $4+/gallon?

    • neocon01 June 3, 2013 / 1:47 pm

      The FOOLS are yapping donk drones about the stock bubble, unemployment is still up, business is way off for every one and $4.00 ++ a gallon gas is a business killer.
      Any one but a pimpled face college kid or paid blog troll knows the real story.

      • neocon01 June 3, 2013 / 1:50 pm

        One more ME domino falls to radical islam and obamas best buds the muslim bro hood. Guess who’s side russia is on? and who is arming up while we strip our military to the bones?

    • bardolf2 June 3, 2013 / 2:01 pm

      The average regular gas price in South Carolina is $3.18 and in Indiana it is $3.965 according to GasBuddy. Indiana isn’t going to have a meaningful recovery if they economic climate leads to these kind of disparities.

    • M. Noonan June 3, 2013 / 4:12 pm

      There will be some – the GOP governors are partially saving Obama’s bacon, economy-wise.

  3. Retired Spook June 3, 2013 / 2:01 pm

    Well, at least U.S. manufacturing is going strong. Oh, wait…..

    • neocon01 June 3, 2013 / 3:00 pm

      Just paid May’s fuel bill…..$791.13

  4. seniorwoman June 3, 2013 / 3:40 pm

    And such a credible source. Thank GOD I support the College Republicans with a donation quarterly.

    • watsonthethird June 3, 2013 / 3:53 pm

      Yeah, the College Republican National Committee has no standing to do research into why young people are rejecting Republicans.

      It is not that young voters are enamored of the Democratic Party. They simply dislike the Republican Party more. In the focus group research conducted in January 2013, the young “winnable” Obama voters were asked to say what words came to mind when they heard “Republican Party.” The responses were brutal: closed-minded, racist, rigid, old-fashioned.

    • neocon01 June 3, 2013 / 4:04 pm

      senior
      when 47% of the population pay no federal taxes, dumbed down kids attend marxist re education camps on OPM only to have their mush pumped full of hate and rot from racist, leftist, homosexual, athiests …no wonder TROLLS like crusty are “HUMMING” in the shower.

    • M. Noonan June 3, 2013 / 4:10 pm

      It actually makes sense giving the amount of lying propaganda the kids get day in and day out – but these things also have a habit of changing. As we trudge along towards Obama’s Depression and the kids get out in to the real world, we’ll have our opportunity to counter-act the lies.

    • watsonthethird June 3, 2013 / 4:13 pm

      A predictable response, eh Rusty?

    • J. R. Babcock (@JRBabcock) June 3, 2013 / 4:36 pm

      As we trudge along towards Obama’s Depression and the kids get out in to the real world, we’ll have our opportunity to counter-act the lies.

      Mark,

      Actually a lot of young people are discovering reality all on their own, particularly young blacks.

    • Cluster June 3, 2013 / 4:50 pm

      The responses were brutal: closed-minded, racist, rigid, old-fashioned.

      That couldn’t be in any way related to the lying, and mischaracterizations by the media, their professors, and the DNC could it? Mitch and I have contest going on the most outrageous things said by either party or surrogate, and there is a SC professor who just claimed that the members of the NRA should be tried for treason and possibly shot.

      Seriously, we have big problems facing this country, many as a result of stupid people with their heads in the sand, ie; progressives, so it would help a lot if we could actually start resolving issues rather than calling each other names. Just a suggestion.

    • Cluster June 3, 2013 / 4:54 pm

      particularly young blacks.

      Black unemployment is approx. 15%, and Obama last met with his “jobs council” over a year ago. I don’t sense a real urgency to put anyone back to work anytime soon.

    • neocon01 June 3, 2013 / 5:09 pm

      cluster
      so it would help a lot if we could actually start resolving issues rather than calling each other names. Just a suggestion.

      That does not fit their plan or agenda……see Marx, Che, Mao, Fidel. They plan a revolution to over throw our liberty, constitution, freedoms and are well on their way to it.They tell us this daily (not the trolls) Fighting in the streets ALWAYS follows and is anticipated with this regime in place.

    • Cluster June 3, 2013 / 7:54 pm

      You just kind of proved my point didn’t you Rusty? Static Global temps have been in the news quite a bit lately, and have many scientists rethinking the correlation between carbon emissions and rising temps. Here is just one source:

      http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-20947224

      And yes, I have harbored a general disdain for the intelligence of the American populace for quite sometime. Do you ever watch those “man in the street” episodes. Not impressive.

    • Cluster June 3, 2013 / 10:46 pm

      Wow, you are really vested in this AGW thing aren’t you? Weird. Try reading this, especially the last paragraph:

      http://www.cbn.com/cbnnews/healthscience/2013/April/Russian-Scientists-Global-Cooling-on-Horizon-/

      So are you saying we should just shut the science down? Remember consensus is not science and TRUE believers in REAL science actually want hard factual data proven over time. We’re not there yet. So I guess you’re not a real believer in science. Would I be correct in saying that?

    • Cluster June 3, 2013 / 10:50 pm

      Oh and by the way, in the quote I posted – “natural viability” is saying that AGW is not a factor. Do you understand that? Carbon emissions as defined by AGW supporters is not a natural occurrence. And one “correct” climatologists out weighs all those in “consensus” – again consensus is not science. Consensus is what you build when deciding on what to have for dinner.

    • M. Noonan June 4, 2013 / 12:40 am

      JR,
      I think so, too – in fact, the smartest thing the GOP can do 2014 and 2016 is invest heavily in the bluest areas of the country, especially those with large populations of poor African-Americans and Latinos. The time is ripe for the truth to be injected in to the blue bastions – to be sure, its a long, uphill climb, but even if we break 15% among African-American and 35% among Latinos, we’ll be crushing the Democrats.

    • J. R. Babcock (@JRBabcock) June 4, 2013 / 7:29 am

      I’ll remind you that 97% of climatologists agree with agw and they’re not basing their opinions on guesswork or politics, but on their ongoing climate research.

      And to that I say, so what. What solutions have any of those “scientists” offered that would reverse this “trend” that you are so exercised about? The answer is, NONE! Why don’t you go argue your point with someone who cares.

    • J. R. Babcock (@JRBabcock) June 4, 2013 / 9:46 am

      Wrong, the answer is: “cut down on our carbon emissions”! You really don’t know much about this debate, do you jr?

      I’ll readily admit it’s not an issue I follow closely, so please educate me. What will cutting down on carbon emissions accomplish besides lowering our standard of living and preventing developing countries from developing? And the last I heard the U.S. was at it’s lowest CO2 emissions rate since the early 90’s. Can you cite a peer-reviewed (that’s the buzz-word term, right?) study that proves that lowering CO2 emissions will have any measurable effect on temperature? And, if so, what temperature are you trying to achieve? What’s normal? Which is better — colder or warmer?

    • Retired Spook June 4, 2013 / 10:09 am

      I’ll readily admit it’s not an issue I follow closely, so please educate me.

      J.R., it’s an issue that I used to follow quite closely, until I realized the Left isn’t really interested in solving the problem (mostly because there really isn’t a problem); only keeping an issue alive that they can use as a club against Conservatives. The percentage of people for whom AGW is a significant priority is miniscule. In fact, for several years AGW has come in at or near the bottom of global priorities. Even those like Rusty, who act all concerned and appear to be heavily invested in the issue can’t really come up with anything other than “you’re stupid because you don’t believe as I do.”

    • J. R. Babcock (@JRBabcock) June 4, 2013 / 10:42 am

      Rusty,

      I got as far as the first paragraph of the Nat Geo page:

      The current cycle of global warming is changing the rhythms of climate that all living things have come to rely upon. What will we do to slow this warming? How will we cope with the changes we’ve already set into motion? While we struggle to figure it all out, the face of the Earth as we know it—coasts, forests, farms, and snowcapped mountains—hangs in the balance.

      “While we struggle to figure it out.” What a load of crap. As I said before — debate with someone who cares.

    • Retired Spook June 4, 2013 / 10:45 am

      No, you’re stupid because you don’t believe in the best scientific evidence.

      You’re right; I’m stupid. As JR said, go find someone who cares.

    • J. R. Babcock (@JRBabcock) June 4, 2013 / 11:32 am

      …and if you don’t care, why are you posting on this topic?

      You seemed to be a know-it-all on the subject. I was curious to hear your answers to the questions I asked at 9:46. It appears you can’t answer some simple, basic questions, so I guess I could ask the same thing: why are you posting on the topic?

    • tiredoflibbs June 4, 2013 / 11:57 am

      JR, Algore’s own hockey stick graph in his “A Convenient Lie” shows us that CO2 concentrations FOLLOWS temperature by roughly 800 years! In other words, when we have an increase in temperature then CO2 concentrations increase 800 years later. To follow the dumbed down talking points, it should be the opposite! Decreasing carbon emissions will do nothing, according to Algore’s own presentation. Oooops!

      BTW, the only thing that has been proposed by any government is TAXING carbon. how does taxing carbon emissions reduce carbon emissions? Of course, developing countries who emit more carbon than RICH countries are exempt.

      Details. Details.

    • Retired Spook June 4, 2013 / 12:03 pm

      As for your little tirade about science, I am the one who is presenting the hard science on this issue.

      LOL!! where? From one of the most obscure climate blogs on the Internet?

    • tiredoflibbs June 4, 2013 / 12:07 pm

      that is it exactly, JR. No one on the left has been able to define: “what is the “normal” condition of the planet”?

      Are we warming away from normal? Or, are we warming to “normal”? NO ONE has been able to answer this question nor do they want to for fear of the answers, if they are obtainable.

    • Retired Spook June 4, 2013 / 12:35 pm

      National Geographic is one of the most obscure science blogs on the Internet?

      No, I was referring to SkepticalScience.

    • J. R. Babcock (@JRBabcock) June 4, 2013 / 12:41 pm

      I didn’t answer your questions because they are so broad that I’m not gonna waste my time explaining the rudimentary issues and controversies of agw, it takes too much time to do so.

      And yet you always seem to demand that the conservatives here respond to your questions. From your comments, I don’t see where my ignorance on the subject is substantially greater than yours — I just admit it, and also admit that the issue doesn’t cause me a great deal of concern. You’ve presented nothing of a scientific nature that would cause me to change my views. You seem to subscribe to the old saying, “if you can’t dazzle them with your brilliance, baffle them with your bullsh*t.”

    • J. R. Babcock (@JRBabcock) June 4, 2013 / 3:33 pm

      you won’t have your insular beliefs challenged by reality.

      LOL — you wouldn’t know reality if it bit you in the tush, Rusty. BTW, Moderator. I don’t have a problem with Rusty’s posts. I think they’re excellent illustrations of the smug vacuousness of many on the Left who have appointed themselves arbiters of the truth based on what they perceive as science. They can’t even answer relatively simple questions. All they have is the ability to link to sites that support their POV. It really isn’t a fair fight — sort of akin to kicking the kids getting off the short bus.

    • Retired Spook June 4, 2013 / 4:42 pm

      You seemed to be a know-it-all on the subject.

      Rusty seems to be a know-it-all on a lot of subjects, just usually not the subject of the thread.

  5. neocon01 June 3, 2013 / 3:41 pm

    25 people shot in NY city in the last 48 hours

    must be crusty’s imaginary GOP peeps……….

    • M. Noonan June 3, 2013 / 4:11 pm

      Reality creates conservatives.

    • neocon01 June 3, 2013 / 4:37 pm

      MATURITY and reality Mark

    • seniorwoman June 3, 2013 / 7:14 pm

      Rusty missed the “hating on Bush” from the left for 8 years. He missed the name calling, the death threats, the hatred, the bigotry, and the racism. I should remind him of uber liberal Letterman who said a baseball player should rape Palin’s 13yo daughter. Or the leftists who called a Downs Syndrome Baby horrid names. The left always say they are the party of good racism, bigotry, sexism, and discrimination. It is all selective with the left. Obama hand in hand with Soros lead their minions well.

      Does anyone have any ideas on how to handle posts that are in response to posts that will be/are deleted? With a policy of deleting certain kinds of posts the blog becomes incoherent when so many responses are left behind to posts that have been removed. If you people love these other posters so much you need to make sure their footprints are left behind when they are removed from the blog, then go right ahead and keep answering them. Or you could just proceed in conversations with other conservatives and let the janitorial service catch up when it can. Your call. // Moderator

  6. Doug Quinby June 3, 2013 / 4:37 pm

    It’s pretty simple calculus: Obama and Bernanke print up tens of billions of dollars in case each month to buy back treasury bonds from institutional investors. Those investors have to reinvest the new cash somewhere to continue investing. Much of that cash is used to purchase stocks and commodities. That drives the prices of those stocks and commodities higher. Ergo, the stock market reaches new highs.

    The only problem is that the newly printed dollars aren’t going to the normal folks, they are going to the investment holders that drive up the prices of commodities that we have to purchase in final product version. Inflation is real, that is in food and energy it is huge and a higher percentage of personal income has to go to pay for those.

    Obama has found a novel way to increase the gap between the have’s and have not’s, while at the same time making the have not’s think, via the stock market rising, that the economy is doing well for them.

  7. neocon01 June 3, 2013 / 4:39 pm

    doug
    making the have not’s LOW INFORMATION drones think, via the stock market rising, that the economy is doing well for them.
    fixed 🙂

  8. Cluster June 3, 2013 / 5:03 pm

    ….while at the same time making the have not’s think, via the stock market rising, that the economy is doing well for them.

    The have not’s though are really not invested in the stock market. This is just the only economic barometer the progressives can point to that is seemingly doing well. Unfortunately, as Mark noted, this is a bubble driven by QE1, QE2, and QE3 money. Ironically, back in when Bush was president and the DOW was at !3,000, the Democrats bristled that this only helped the rich.

    We’ve come full circle.

    • Cluster June 3, 2013 / 7:06 pm

      You know what’s fun to point out about that? Progressives and Democrats like to blame the republican congress for obstruction and hurting the economy – well the Democrats controlled the House and the Senate the last two years of Bush’s presidency. That’s fun to note isn’t it?

  9. neocon01 June 3, 2013 / 5:47 pm

    and the flying monkey show flaps in….

  10. Cluster June 3, 2013 / 7:11 pm

    The most alarming result of this survey is that it appears too many people believe that they NEED government. Government should be like an OS for a computer, in the background working efficiently but almost seemless. Thanks to progressives and democrats however, too many stupid people are walking around our country thinking that they need government to survive and that anyone who wants to curtail their “goodies” are evil.

    This country is in decline and will most likely never come back thanks to progressives.

  11. Cluster June 3, 2013 / 7:12 pm

    Who said that about Hillary? And Carney is a liar.

    • neocon01 June 4, 2013 / 7:45 am

      syrup
      It’s not like he’s an obscure left-wing race-baiter (let’s call him Jessie Jackson), expressing a wish to cut out a Presidential candidate’s nuts.

  12. Cluster June 3, 2013 / 8:29 pm

    Here’s something I would like to hear some comments on:

    Malik Obama established a foundation and received IRS approval as a 501 C in approx. three weeks. In addition, the IRS gave him tax exempt retro status going back over 2 years. And he applied from Kenya. Meanwhile, those groups here in the US applying for the same status but unfortunately had “tea party” or “patriot” as part of their name, faced incredible scrutiny and languished without approval for years.

    http://www.barackhobamafoundation.org/

    Interesting, no?

  13. neocon01 June 3, 2013 / 8:55 pm

    . How about the radio “personality”….WHO??
    bill mahr? or bill klintoon?
    chirps crickets …..

  14. neocon01 June 4, 2013 / 7:21 am

    now social breakdown from the muslim riots, rather than market-driven factors.”

  15. Retired Spook June 4, 2013 / 8:51 am

    Pimco’s Bill Gross offers an excellent diagnosis of what ails our economy.

  16. neocon01 June 4, 2013 / 9:15 am

    Spook
    DEMANDING OPM through riotous intimidation does not help our economy.

    “The Republicans have taken a progressive state that prioritizes education for young people, prioritizes economic justice, prioritizes access to health care and basically in the last six to 12 months done a complete 180,” he said.

    Among those who stood outside the state Senate’s door awaiting arrest was George Gresham, president of the Service Employees International Union’s United Healthcare Workers East, which represents nearly 400,000 members from Florida to Massachusetts. He said the state’s policies go against the working poor, and the growing momentum of the NAACP’s demonstrations will catch fire elsewhere.

    “We need this fight in the whole country, and if we’re going to begin in North Carolina, so be it,” Gresham said.

    http://charlotte.cbslocal.com/2013/06/03/140-people-arrested-in-naacp-protest-against-nc-republicans/

  17. tiredoflibbs June 4, 2013 / 12:03 pm

    Spook, are you glad crusty is being so civil as he always claims.
    When his post is deleted, according to him, it is deleted because he is right and that is not tolerated and not because he is being an @ss.

    AGW theory is supposed to be the result of the “best scientific minds” but in reality it is a result of data mining and cherry picking. The UN IPCC would not allow any contradictory evidence and lumped them (supporting data and climatologists) to be presented or debated.

  18. Retired Spook June 4, 2013 / 12:07 pm

    Everything is negative, every headline quoted is offered as further proof that doom and gloom prevail.

    And, of course, all YOUR posts are just glowing examples of positive good news, Mitche. ROTFL!!

  19. Count d'Haricots (@Count_dHaricots) June 4, 2013 / 4:09 pm

    Seriously people!

    I was about to weigh in on the SUBJECT of this thread yesterday when I saw you allowed yourself to be hijacked into Student Opinion Polls, AGW, and other worthless diversions

    The Troll Patrol is not here to debate with you!
    They are here to disrupt.
    THAT’S IT!

    They know next to nothing about everything, so they’ll lead you into endless debates on the finer points of just how stupid you are. Then piss and moan when their inanity is finally deleted.

    Get a clue! You can prove them for the asses they are with endless minutiae and ever encompassing facts and they’ll declare victory. They do the Happy Snoopy Dance when they’re deleted because It Proves to THEM That You Can’t Win an Argument With Them!

    By the time the stench was cleared, the thread no longer has any continuity, and you look like you’re arguing with yourselves and losing those arguments.

    People SERIOUSLY! Don’t engage them!

    Once they post a comment about a Student Opinion Poll they proved they are unwilling and unable to discuss/debate or contribute in any way.

    Once they bring Global Warming up, once they start on evolution or gay marriage in a thread about anything except gay marriage or evolution, STOP READING and IGNORE Them!

    Let their idiocy wither on the vine and get back to discussions; wait for a liberal to make a salient point before responding.

    Mark had a good thread started here and I really wanted to disagree on many of the points made on subject. But I won’t be distracted any longer by old hippies, goat herders or delusional Goth-kids.

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