You can have Rules or Rulers, a wise man once said – meaning that you can either live by dogma, or you can live by the whim of a King. Take your pick – I prefer dogmas, myself.
A GOP office in North Carolina was fire bombed. Naturally, some Progs are thinking GOPers did it, themselves.
Know about the war in Somalia? Of course not – doesn’t fit the Obama Narrative. But, we are intensifying our effort in that war.
In October of 2008, a month before the election, the Democrats’ corporate paymasters had already settled on Obama’s cabinet. There is a bit of an internal battle among Democrats about how things will be divvied up in a Clinton Administration – hate to break it to you, earnest Progressive friends, but Democrats do not push back against those who write the checks.
Victor Davis Hanson lays out the modern medievalism of the United States. He notes that the modern medievalism lacks the saving grace of a deep, religious belief to provide a counter to despotism. I’ll never want to get too far into an argument with someone like Hanson – but the fact of life is that the Middle Ages were not so much an age of despotism as we moderns tend to think. Yes, people had a lot of duties to perform…but taxes took up a far smaller percentage of income than today and a person was free from relentless propaganda.
The Washington Post is convinced that Hillary has already won. So have most experts. Polling almost uniformly confirms this view. Except for the much-maligned LA Times Poll (currently showing a 0.6% Trump lead). Thing is, the Washington Post poll released yesterday pretty much has the race the same as it did in mid-September – Hillary ahead by 4; the Washington Post poll, in my experience, has always been a bit favorable for the Democrats (just as the Rasmussen poll very often favors Republicans). The spread in that poll is D+8 – but that is not as important as the fact that after a month of Team Hillary dropping nuclear Oppo on Trump, the race hasn’t changed much. In fact, none of the national polling I’ve seen actually shows much change over the past month. But, still, it almost all gives the advantage to Hillary – so, she’s the next President. As I said, only if Trump shakes up the normal electorate can he win…and such an shake up would not necessarily show up in polling. The LA Times says they have figured out how the electorate has been shaken up in 2016 and thus they stand by their polling – and Sean Trende notes that there is some reason for their confidence: the LA Times poll – called the Rand poll in the past – was dead-on in 2012. Of course, Trende also note that past performance is no guarantee of future results. My view – Hillary has the institutional advantage and by all traditional measures is the next President. And thank goodness that people are just in love with our institutions in this oh, so very traditional year.
UPDATE: the RCP average shows Clinton up by 7 – it’s over. Trump is heading for a crushing loss. So, has the LA Times poll gone along? Nope: Trump is now up 1.6 points in that poll. Just weird – and I guess we won’t know for sure until 11/8. If you’re betting money, lay it on Hillary…but maybe make a side bet on Trump.
UPDATE II: I’ve been a Republican since I became an adult. My first ballot was cast in 1988 – I could have voted in ’84, of course, but I was overseas in the Navy and absentee balloting wasn’t much of a thing back then; certainly not for a 19 year old squid. I did some volunteer work for George H W Bush in 1988 – but I had to reach out to volunteer. I’ve donated a few times to various GOP campaigns, but I think my last time was in ’04 (though I may have donated a bit in ’06 – but whatever I’ve done in the past 12 years, it wasn’t much). Other than that 1988 thing, I’ve never done any volunteer work. So, while Republican I’m pretty much off the radar – certainly haven’t donated this year either to the GOP, GOP candidates or Donald Trump. So, much to my surprise, I get a phone call today from the Trump campaign asking if I’d like to volunteer.
I’ve read several bits from GOPers swearing that they’ve got this Cracker Jack GOTV for November – something which will do wonders. I’ve doubted it – and all reports are that Team Trump and the overall GOP are going to be skunked by Team Hillary and the DNC in GOTV efforts. Me getting a call today makes me wonder if that will really be the case.