It is less than it seems so far – for there to be a real impeachment inquiry, the House would have to vote to do so, and so far Pelosi isn’t making that move…and it can’t be for lack of votes: such a thing would garner 218 (at least) votes in the House because too many Democrats would face a primary challenge if they didn’t go along with it. So, why isn’t she moving forward? My view is that the far left base of the Democrats – mostly upper class, urban whites – are the only people on fire for impeachment and Pelosi is trying to thread the needle: make it seem like she’s doing it, but not actually doing it.
The trouble is, these things have a way of just growing on their own. People in the Democrat ranks are already staking out extreme positions and in an election year, the need to one-up on it will make it more likely that nearly everyone stakes out such a position. Democrats are caught in a vise – their attempt to separate Trump from his base – that is all Trump/Russia was ever about – has failed but their own stalwarts have taken it as Gospel. And if you really believe that Trump is a Russian agent placed in office by Putin – and that is what they believe – then there can be no reason not to impeach. To try to hold back from the last step might prove impossible.
No one can tell how this will play out: we know Trump is innocent and so any airing of the facts will help Trump. But the political dynamic is unprecedented: we’ve never had a President actively seeking re-election while an impeachment plays out. Get ready for a wild ride.