If you need a poll to make you feel good, Zogby has it Biden +3 over Trump…which works out, at least, to an easy EC win for Trump. Zogby was pretty good in 2016: but I don’t trust any polls this year. Even if they are being honest, I really do think they are just missing some huge shifts in the electorate.
Keep in mind that Hillary only got about 340,000 fewer votes than Obama did in 2012 but this worked out to dropping the Democrat total from 51.1% to 48.2%. Trump got 2 million more votes than Romney, and that was all the difference because of who and where they were: white, working class voters in the Midwest. And sure they frauded up Hillary’s total, but they also frauded up Obama’s…so, it probably all worked out in the wash. The bottom line isn’t that Hillary did so bad, but that Trump did so good. The joker in the deck for 2020 is can Trump add black and Latino working class votes to his white working class total? There are some indications he is: but it doesn’t show up in the polls. If Trump can push his African-American vote north of 10% and get near or over 40% of the Latino vote, this could end up being quite a different election than anyone expects.
Another unknowable is that in 2012, about 2.2 million third party ballots were cast but it rocketed up to 7.7 million in 2016. Those 5.5 million votes: where do they go? If its about 50/50, then it doesn’t matter. But if its 60/40 for one over the other, it could be decisive. They didn’t vote Trump in 2016 because they just couldn’t go there – but they also rejected Establishment Hillary. Do they now go, “I guess the Establishment is great” or “well, Trump turned out to not be nearly as bad as I thought he’d be”? If I had to bet, I ‘d bet the latter. Especially as I’ll bet of the 5.5 million extra votes, a huge majority were traditional GOP votes – some are now gone forever because of the evolution of Never Trump to I’m a Democrat has been completed. But how many? There is no way to know – and, once again, this probably won’t show in polling.
Voter registration trends have been remarkable, and almost all in the GOP’s favor. We’ve probably lost Colorado and Virginia for a generation or more, but trends indicate we may be on the way to locking down Florida, North Carolina and Ohio while making deep inroads in Pennsylvania and holding our own in Arizona (for a while there, AZ voter trends were against the GOP…but the past 18 months or so have seen a resurgence of the GOP so we’re now back to par for 2016). As for early voting and VBM: I’ve seen this and that. Most of what I’ve seen indicates some good news for the GOP…but I place small weight on it: just because a ballot was returned by a person of a particular party, doesn’t mean it’s going your way.
And that is another thing which I think the pollsters are missing: the number of Democrats who are now functional Republicans. Voter registration trends indicate that people are far more switching GOP to Dem than Dem to GOP…but not everyone is going to bother themselves to switch registration, especially if there isn’t an intense primary battle to be fought. Just because a State has a Dem voter advantage of, say, 200,000 doesn’t mean you’ve got that many Democrats. You’ve just got a lot of people who haven’t bothered to make it official. But their returned VBM ballot goes into the Democrat pile…until it is opened and counted.
Trump, himself, seems to be in a good mood. His team exudes confidence. OTOH, Team Biden is floating Hillary for SecDef and Cuomo for AG – measuring the drapes, as it were. Or just trying to score some excitement in a flailing campaign? I don’t really know. Biden’s campaign is ridiculous: he’s clearly too old for it. He could get bigger crowds, of course: but that means more advance planning and that means he’s committed to be there…but if he’s sundowning just before showtime, it would be a disaster to have 10,000 people waiting for a guy who either can’t show, or shows up clearly senile. So, small venues and only little advance notice (one of his events in Arizona literally had no one show up for it). If Biden wins, it means that a massive campaign of lies can get just about anyone the Ruling Class wants over the top: this would bode ill for our chances long term.
Biden won’t be forced out right away if he wins, by the way: not if Harris has anything to say about it. She’ll want it as soon as possible, but she’ll also want two terms for herself: and that means Joe goes in January (highly unlikely) or Harris waits until January 21st, 2023 (a VP taking over for less than two years of a term is still eligible to be elected twice). No one can move against Joe unless Harris signs off on it: that is the way the 25th is written. VP can’t do it alone, but no one can do it without VP. So, Joe wins and it becomes Harris’ decision on when to act…unless Joe dies. But as long as he isn’t dead, they’ll keep him in there until Harris is ready and all deals have been cut.
Will they pack the courts? Only if they also get the Senate and even a Trump loss doesn’t ensure that. Everyone has signed off on the GOP losing CO and AZ while the GOP gains Alabama: net loss of one and the Democrats need two more. They’re making their play in ME, AK, SC and NC for those seats. I doubt they’ll win any of them. OTOH, there is the outside chance the GOP holds on in AZ and maybe even scores a miracle win in MI. Be that as it may: no Senate, no packing. If they get the Senate, they will try: but the move is unpopular and the GOP will fight tooth and nail to prevent it: this is something even the Establishment squishes would go to the mat on. OTOH, a Majority Leader Schumer has a Dem-friendly map for 2022; only three Democrat seats will be at any risk. But if the Senate is 51-49 come January, which Democrat walks the plank to pack the courts? In other words: packing is more easily said than done.
Now, to end on a high note: suppose Trump wins? It means that for the next four years Trump will continue to deregulate and will have years where he can weed out the worst of the bureaucrats: that is the most important thing he can do. It rolls back Democrat power and allows our side to compete on a more level playing field. And we’ll need that: if Trump wins, then we’ll have to do one of the hardest things in American politics: win three in a row in 2024. It rarely happens. It rarely happens even when the economy is good and the incumbent is popular. In recent times, only Reagan managed to pull it off. Clinton, Bush and Obama all failed to install their chosen successor into office. The person the Dems will nominate in 2024 will be very far left – and so we’re going to be against the wall trying to stop it: getting rid of backstabbers in DC will help us a lot.
Anyways: be of good cheer! God actually gets to decide how things turn out in the long run.