The Ukrainians blow up a bridge. Putin calls it terrorism and in retaliation rains down a bunch of bombs on Ukrainian cities…and then nitwits in the West start calling for direct strikes on Russia.
Not liking where this seems to be heading.
As I’ve said all along, there is zero American strategic interest in who governs the Donbas or, indeed, all of Ukraine. It wouldn’t change the balance of power against us in the least. On the other hand, Poland, Germany and Romania (and, to a lesser extent, France, Italy, Spain and England) have a vested interest in the matter. Combined, they have land forces numbering about 170,000 – and reserves can be mobilized to make them larger. France, Italy, Spain and Britain can back that up with about 380,000 troops (once again, more when fully mobilized). This doesn’t count air and naval forces. Nor economic power. That is more than enough to deter Russia – especially as Europe’s population and industrial power is larger than Russia’s so in a long war, Europe wins no matter what the Russians do (and France and the UK are nuclear-armed, so that balances against Russia’s nuclear weapons). Quick and cool-headed diplomacy backed by a credible threat of force likely would have gotten the Russians to back down.
So, why wasn’t that done? Because while quick and cool-headed diplomacy backed by credible force would likely get Russia to back down, it wouldn’t certainly do so. In other words: the Europeans might have to fight. They don’t want to. And I don’t think they want to ever: not even if their homelands were at stake. Certainly not for the Donbas. Europe is so sunk in narcissistic sloth and cowardice that I doubt there is the plain courage to stand up to a bully…so, they asked us to step in and they are pouring weapons into Ukraine hoping that somehow the 41 million Ukrainians can defeat 145 million Russians (do the math, guys).
The chances that anyone will use a nuke are low, but as I pointed out previously, they are rising all the time. The whole concept of using nuclear weapons being unthinkable was something implanted by propaganda to make sure, first and foremost, that the United States never took advantage of its overwhelming superiority in that area. I still doubt that Putin will use them – he can put into uniform about 3 million soldiers and that should be more than sufficient to deal with Ukraine. But you never can tell – there are stories rolling around that US and NATO special forces are boots on the ground assisting the Ukraine on the battlefield. If they are, it is likely intel that they are providing – data on Russian strength and intentions obtained from our satellites and human intelligence capabilities. If this is so, and if such manages to route a significant Russian force thus opening up Russian territory to Ukrainian invasion, things could get dicey very fast.
It is a very delicate situation right now and I very much doubt that our political or military leadership has a clue how to end it. They want victory, of course – or at least something that can be presented on TV as a victory (our Ruling Class lives and dies by how things appear on TV): but nobody – not NATO and not us – wants to put in the real effort necessary to secure a victory. Its all just a hope.
But Putin isn’t hoping – he’s trying to win. Like all Russian leaders he’s confronted with the fact his Russian people simply aren’t good at things which require organization and timing. So, he seems to be turning to the tried-and-true Russian method of just pounding his way through to success. You hope that Ukraine has produced a general who can confound Putin’s plans – and swiftly, but without seeming a mortal threat to Russia. And you hope that nobody at State or DoD is contemplating something like a covert attack on Russia’s military infrastructure by American forces.
I don’t know how it will come out – but literally anything is possible given the level of stupidity and ignorance our leaders have. Let’s just pray for peace – that somehow God grants us mercy and this war just blows over.
The Russian terror attacks are the result of desperation on the part of Putin. The Ukraine military is rolling back Russian forces all across Ukraine. Putin could end this war in a minute by agreeing to pull Russian forces out of Ukraine and back to Russia. The Russian Army has lost tens of thousands of troops and billions of dollars of equipment. Putin’s draft notice resulted in hundreds of thousands of young Russians leaving the country. Terror attacks is all he has left.
Casper, we’ve been over this – last time was just a few days ago. Why in heaven’s name are you still believing the MSM.
Look, I’ll help you out here – go look up headlines of British newspapers from, say, July 2nd, 1916. See how they describe the fist day of the Battle of the Somme – it was a smashing success!
Which cost 20,000 dead and 40,000 missing and wounded. But, hey, they did move the line forward…by a mile. In some places.
You want an idea of what is happening? Go to the Institute for the Study of War. They are very pro-Ukraine and paint the brightest possible picture of Ukrainian efforts…but at the end of the day, the troops are where they are…and the Ukrainian troops have not moved very far ahead..and seem to have lost some of their initial gains over the past few days.
You should also consider this: Best estimate at the moment is that Ukraine’s army is about 500,000 strong – a big increase from the start but fit-for-service males in Ukraine total about 15.6 million. This tells me something – (a) the Ukrainians can’t equip a larger force and/or (b) the war against Russia ain’t all that popular. But, meanwhile, the active Russian military has grown to about 1.3 million before Putin decreed partial mobilization. From what I can find, Putin sent about 250,000 against Ukraine: the current Ukraine strength on the field might be a temporary thing as Putin sends more. And Russia’s fit for military service population vastly outnumbers Ukraine. Like by 3 to 1 – so, if both sides decide to go flat out…Russia wins.
It is time to make peace.
Side note – as for Russians fleeing military service…I’m kinda wondering just how popular any war is with the young me? Sure, there are always some willing to fight: the world never lacks warriors…but even in WWII, the fact of the matter is that only 3 out of 13 million American military personnel saw combat…and the sharp end of the war was carried out by Marines, Paratroopers, Rangers…you know, people who even if drafted initially, still volunteered for extra hazardous duty. Like maybe the bulk of draftees weren’t too enthusiastic about the fight…you also consider that the Brits, outside Commandos, Paras and the like, also routinely were slow to engage and slow to pursue…like they weren’t at all willing to press it home.
You think about the US Civil War and how we had thousands flee to Canada or desert at the first opportunity, Heck, there were deserters in the Vietnam War. Some of them even remained in Vietnam after the defeat.
What I’m driving at here is that you can, if you control the media, paint whatever picture you want of how enthusiastic an army is. The proof is in the pudding: who can put the most at the line of contact and who can endure it the best and advance. We’ll find that out in Ukraine between now and Spring.
You make a lot of assumptions that aren’t true.
First, I don’t get all my information from the MSM. I get information from a variety so sources, including the Internet, Russian and Ukraine Telegram channels, Various twitter accounts and a net work of friends and former students.
That said, when comparing the militaries of Ukraine and Russia, overall size down’t mean that much. Russia is invading Ukraine while having to defend it’s own borders. Ukraine has all of it’s forces committed to defending its own country. There is overwhelming evidence that the Ukrainian army is much better supplied, trained, and led than the Russian Army. Since Ukraine is defending it’s own territory, it has a number of advantages, including supply lines, help from the local populace, knowing the terrain and the the knowledge that if they lose the whole country goes down. The Russian army is the invader, with longer supply lines, and much lower moral.
As long as the Ukrainian army is fighting in its own country, the advantages all belong to it.
Compare the maps of what Russia controls now compared to six months ago. Russia is losing ground, not to mention troops and equipment. If Putin were smart, he declare some kind of victory and pull all of his troops out.
You’ve said for years here that you get your news from a variety of sources – but if you ask 10 liars, guess what you get?
I’m asking, Casper, for you to think about it. You, Casper: the glorious creation of God (though, like many of His actions, very mysterious in intent) – endowed with Reason. Not asking anyone else. Not Googling it. Think about it. How far have they advanced? A few kilometers. This isn’t a smashing success. It isn’t an indication of Russia in collapse.
Now, maybe they are about to collapse? Woohoo, if so – but until you see tens of thousands taken prisoner and the rest retreating in route, throwing away weapons and just running away…it isn’t a collapse. If you want to know what a military collapse looks like, for reference, the defeat of France in 1940 will clue you in.
Ask yourself why, without a collapse, the MSM is reporting that it is a collapse. Why not just say the battle is happening, the Ukrainians have made some advances and are hopeful about the outcome? Why are we urged to pop champagne before the actual defeat of the Russians?
Don’t know, of course – we can’t know why; other than it is clearly dishonest and so hides something they’d rather we didn’t notice. Like maybe Ukraine oligarchs liquidating their assets and moving their money out…things like that do happen. For instance, the Krupp family in Germany liquidated almost all their Nazi bonds starting in 1943 when it was clear the war was lost…would have been shot if they had been caught…but, hey, money is money. Another example: the former royal house of Italy kept their throne in Rome…but their money in London. Turns out, the only royal family to wind up broke after overthrow was the Romanovs…which, side note, indicates they actually loved Russia…rather than the money. But, I digress.
What I’m saying here, Casper, is that you have a duty to perform – as a citizen of the Republic – to think. Not research. Not check with Experts. To think – to come to your own conclusions based upon whatever hard, indisputable facts you can find. Do that and you’ll find yourself entering a strange but really rather fun land.
And, hey, if you do it you’ll finally, after all these years, have a chance at uttering an opinion that surprises me…and I’d faint dead away. I’ll have the Mrs take a picture of it: we’ll post it on the blog. It’ll be worth it just for that.
variety of sources, including the Internet, Russian and Ukraine Telegram channels, Various twitter accounts and a net work of friends and former students.
OK—where on the internet?
Russia and Ukraine Telegram channels—what do they say?
Various Twitter accounts—’nuff said
Friends and former students . As your former students were “taught” by you if they still stay in contact with you it is likely they have not yet seen how foolish your ideas are, so that’s just a case of GIGO.
And where does this “network of friends” fall on the political spectrum?
When a teacher still submits to the Rogue Apostrophe, it does cast some doubt on the rest of his content. The word “it’s” has only one meaning—-“it is”. The possessive doesn’t get the apostrophe.
Having said this, your analysis does seem logical.
Dismissing any source you disagree with, without even looking at it isn’t thinking. Thinking requires the ability to look at new information and evaluate how that information fits in with what you already know.
The Ukraine has retaken several thousand square Kilometers of their country within the last couple of months and that doesn’t count the areas North of Kiev.
Do I know for certain that these areas have been retaken? Not 100%, but the Russians have certainly not claimed otherwise. That said, obviously, the Russians still control a large part of the country. It will require a great deal more before they are driven out and if things change it can still go the other way.
A few months ago I was challenged about some information presented by a conservative friend of a friend on Facebook. I was sure I was right, but I still contacted a different friend that is an expert in that area. I was told that I was wrong and the conservative was right. I thought about it, decided I was wrong and apologized to the conservative. That is thinking. You have to be able to incorporate new information into your knowledge base, even if it forces you to change your mind.
If I tell you I’ll give you $20 to take out the trash and then, trash disposed of, I don’t give you the money – how confident are you that the next time I tell you I’ll give you $20 to take out the trash that I’ll deliver? Now, times that by a thousand repeat events…about the 1,001st time will you finally simply call me a liar?
That is the MSM, Casper – I’m not dismissing alternate sources: I am dismissing liars. If they lied before, they’ll lie again. Nothing they say can be taken at face value. And this is especially true of anything that relates to politics in the broadest sense…because MSMers are mere propagandists; they are paid to lie. Do you think they know anything? Do you think they actually get down in the dirt and find things out? No, they just take the press release and, if they’re feeling very energetic, rephrase it a bit. They say that their “sources” are saying and perhaps you think they’ve got a Deep Throat in there feeding them info the bosses want to keep quiet. No, they don’t – they just have a press flack feeding them the approved Narrative. For crying out loud, they went to J School – if they had any wit at all they would have found something intellectually challenging. And at J School they learned – because that is what J School teaches – that their job is to advocate. To stay away from “both side-ism” and concentrate their efforts on advancing the Approved Narrative. And God help any of them if they dare to stray even an inch away from the party line. TV is just massively worse than print (they are on TV because they look and sound good, not because they know anything), but this doesn’t mean that print journalists are better…in fact, it just means they are uglier in addition to being stupid.
I can think of maybe half a dozen journalists whom I take at face value – and even their I compensate for the fact that, at the end of the day, their career is in journalism and if they want to advance, they will have to advance the Narrative in at least some manner, at least to the point of ignoring stories the Ruling Class wants ignored (like the Hunter laptop – FFS, the FBI had it for a year…it was absolutely true, and everyone in the industry who follows politics knew it existed and what was on it…but they had been forbidden to bring it up).
Your assertion was that Russia is collapsing. This is simply not something you can know and there is zero evidence of it. Until it happens, it isn’t happening, Casper, and no amount of MSM wish-casting will make it happen. So, wisdom dictates that all we say about it is that the fighting is ongoing and we’re waiting on the result…not, “yeehaw! The Russkies are beat – lets sent another billion to Ukraine that we’ll never audit or find out how its used”.
Casper, you are aware that the BBC is strongly left-leaning, aren’t you?
Or are you so desensitized to editorializing in “news” pieces that it strikes you as just more facts?
This is not an objective news source.
“Casper, you are aware that the BBC is strongly left-leaning, aren’t you?”
Then feel free to link an article disputing this information. The point is this is just one of many sources with information that I’ve confirmed using others.
Here is another source;
This is a site that tracks fires around the world. If you focus on Ukraine over a period of time, you can get an idea as to which part of the country fighting is going on. It’s not perfect any means, but when combined with other data it gives a little more insight as to what is going on.
Back at it: your contention was that the Russians are collapsing. There is no evidence of this. Maybe they will – and God bless Ukraine if they can engineer that. But as of this moment in time there has been no such thing – and MSM reports which indicate that it has happened or is happening are clearly false. They’re lying to you, Casper – a military route is unmistakable. Thousands of prisoners are taken. Equipment is abandoned by the side of the road as the defeated army throws away anything that can slow down the retreat. Advances, in the modern, mechanized era, are counted in scores of miles per day. An army defeated – as they French say – en rasse campagne is an astonishing sight. For one thing, it makes for amazing television and it would be on our screens in a loop if it was happening.
You’re still defending what you know to be untrue – and all I’m really asking you here is to think about it. Not switch sides. Not become pro-Russian or make any adjustment to your worldview…just think! Why would they lie to you? To what purpose? If Ukraine is winning, then that will shortly be evident and you can report the victory after it happens…but if Ukraine is not winning, if they are paying a usurious blood price for moderate advances as the Russians bring up fresh troops…then why say it is a big victory? Whom does it help? And help to do what?
You start thinking about it and you can see that for political purposes, after massive expenditure of money and with the mid-terms looming, team Pudding Brain wants a success they can crow about…and then the “big Ukrainian victory” stories which simply can’t be true at this time, make sense.
casper, what is your point?
You seem to feel entitled to come here and scold and lecture us. You stated your position. Mark stated his. Neither can be proved, so why are you so intent on getting some kind of points or gotchas or something? Do you plan to continue this harangue until someone submits and taps out?
This peevish scolding seems to gratify you in some way, but as usual it is very tiresome.
At least Fielding admits he’s not intelligent enough to carry on a meaningful conversation about even moderately complex subjects.
“Back at it: your contention was that the Russians are collapsing. There is no evidence of this”
I don’t know that collapsing is the right for, but there is a great deal of evidence that they are losing badly. There is this:
Haven’t used this source before, but it fits with what I’m seeing from a number of other sources, Ukrainian, Russian, U. S., and a number of other forgiven forces. Are you saying that all of them are lying? For what purpose? Do you really believe that dozens of sources from around the world would would fake information like this?
If I’m wrong, fine. I’ve been wrong before. That said, you haven’t provided a single source contradicting what I’ve shared. If you are sure this is false, provide some links backing up your position. It’s easy to discount a person’s sources, it’s a lot harder to find your own evidence.
Line of the day: On FNC’s The Five, Jessica Tarlov to Judge Jeanine Pirro: “you just called the Vice President of the United States a halfwit.” To which Judge Jeanine replied, “she IS a halfwit.”
Fact check, false: quarter wit, at best – if brains were dynamite, couldn’t blow her nose, etc…
Scary that she’s only a heartbeat away from the Presidency.
Though I have to admit I doubt that we would see much difference between a Biden presidency and a Harris term. Both are totally incompetent, both are incapable of stringing together a coherent sentence, both are utterly clueless about their own cluelessness.
And neither one would be a president in actuality, just another puppet.
Something else to think about—a Harris presidency would spare us any more of “Dr.” Jill’s appalling fashion disasters. I’m starting to think she gets her fashion advice from Hillary
I would like to say that it was nice knowing you all throughout the years. I hope you all figure a way to survive the fallout.
Tim, do you know something that we don’t?
The cabal of this nation is dead set on getting involved in a war with Russia. Being prepared for that would be prudent. IMO.
You need to recalibrate your sarcasm detector. It is malfunctioning.
My brother sent me a video and it shows that the super-rich are building 5 Star bomb shelters…I laughed along with the presenter because it is just so absurd – “ride out the apocalypse in comfort!”…only a rich person would be stupid enough to buy something like that.
Well, this is kind of a big deal!
Might be something to what this guy says.
Here’s that sieve-like brain at work.
OT, but just too good not to pass on; from Jeff Childer’s caustic wit:
the revenues that came through the door.
What a sly way of saying “the revenues funneled to us by the billions of dollars by a complicit federal government.” After all, how many companies can put out a defective and dangerous product and have the government demand that people use it or lose their jobs or their freedom to travel, and then pay the company for the product, while actively protecting the company from liability for damages from the product?
And we are, naturally, supposed to believe that none of those billions of taxpayer dollars ever flowed back in the other direction, that there was never a substantial payoff for so vigorously forcing this onto the public and overlooking or hiding the ugly facts that some people tried so bravely to get to the public. It was just some of those coinkydinky thingies that got effective and cheap treatments literally made illegal by Dem governors, or medical licenses revoked for those who dared to speak out—not the jackboot of the federal government on the necks of the people.