War is a continuation of politics by other means, Von Clausewitz famously said. Lot of people forget, though, that politics is a continuation of war by other means. They are, ultimately, the same thing – a person who truly understands war understands politics and vice versa. I bring this up because we have a lot of people dooming over the pending deal with Iran.
First off, we don’t really know the details yet. It hasn’t been released. Trump has outlined (for months) the broad outlines of what we’re after: no Iranian nukes, no threats to commerce, Iran ceases using proxy forces around the Middle East. Trump says he’s close to a deal to get what we want. Ok. Lets wait and see. If you really think that Trump will throw away our overwhelming victory over Iran then I just don’t know what to say: I can only assume you’re just so filled with hatred of Trump that you’ll swallow any nonsense fed to you by known liars.
Secondly, just what do you want? That is, what is your post-war?
It is a serious question and one which hasn’t been asked for a very long time. And, in fact, it is rarely asked during any war. But it is the most crucial thing to ask. In fact, if you don’t ask and find your answer, you really shouldn’t engage in war. There have been so many wars in human history and for most of them people don’t even ponder what is next – and this is true for both just and unjust wars. But if you are in any way a serious person, you have to know what you want at the end of it. I do believe Trump knows what he wants.
In any war you can have your idea outcome in mind but you must also have your merely acceptable outcome ready. You can never know what is going to happen once the guns go off. The enemy, after all, does get a say. Trump’s ideal outcome in Iran was the Iranian people overthrowing the Mullahs. I thought it would happen. I think almost all of us did. Trump certainly did. But with the Mullah regime decapitated, its remaining leaders in hiding and their goon squads running the Iranian people simply did not move. They didn’t want to risk their lives. Had they done so, US and Israeli air cover would have been available. Nothing happened. They took videos and then went home. Given this, our ideal outcome became out of reach. We will not usher in the end of the Mullah regime short of a US invasion and no sane person in America wants that. It isn’t that we wouldn’t win it is that in the post-war we’d be responsible for rebuilding Iran and you just know the Iranians would take pot-shots at us as they vie to be more anti-American than the next guy. No, thanks.
So, given that the Mullahs truly gauged the quality of their people, what next? It has got to be a deal. We could keep bombing. But to what purpose? It is still an option and Trump has repeatedly said he’d resort to it absent a deal…but, for goodness sake, you’re not supposed to want Iran reduced to rubble. Whatever else they are, they are your fellow human beings. If necessity requires you to kill them, then so be it – but if you can abridge the slaughter and still obtain your minimal requirements then it would be a crime to keep killing. Right now, Trump says he can make the deal – presumably no nukes, open seas, no proxies. Lets see if it can be done.
Will Iran break the deal? They might. You can’t trust them any further than you could throw them. But they also just found out that 25 years of military build up using untold amounts of money turned out to be a complete waste of time. They couldn’t even slow us down. That is a lesson which only a fool ignores. Might they all be fools? Could be. But, I doubt it. Given that at least some significant faction of the mafia running Iran is talking, there are at least some people there who know that it is time to lay low, rebuild and try again down the road. Long down the road. So far down the road that by the time you get there, attacking the USA might not remain a priority. In other words, it is time for peace. War might come again. War might always come again. But it is time for peace. The Mullah dream of conquering the Middle East is over. And outside some potential fanatics, everyone understands it. But, meanwhile, Iran still carries great weight. They can have strong influence in the area…if they make a deal and thus are able to rebuild. Their choice, ultimately.
But right back to it: what do you want? What do you think is best for America? In my view, what we want is us exiting the Middle East. That is, peace is secured to the extent that we don’t need to be deeply involved over there. I don’t care if some random Islamist nutter sets off a bomb – that is for the local people to deal with. What I do want – and I think America should insist upon – is the free movement of oil combined with no attempts by any Middle East party to export their lunacy to the rest of the world. Remain 7th century savages for all I care – as long as you don’t export it to the USA. I don’t want us to have to fuss every time some idiot does something stupid. I want our forces to withdraw from the Middle East. I want good relations there – especially with Israel, Egypt and Saudi Arabia. I want to have in place various protocols for what to do if some idiot decides to set the place on fire…but I don’t want us deeply involved in the day to day. Let the people there sort themselves out.
I doubt that those pre-condemning Trump have any idea what they want. Other than to take exception to any Trump action, that is. If we hadn’t hit at all they’d condemn. If we kept hitting they’d condemn. If Trump’s deal works, they’ll still condemn. But as I’ve been saying for a while now, it is time we rejoined the real world…and in that real world we don’t have to be eternally engaged in warfare. We can make peace. Even with people we hate and who hate us. Peace isn’t love. Peace isn’t trust. Peace is…peace. It is a state where we’re not shooting at each other and are unlikely to do so any time soon. I think Trump is going to get us that – and that is good.
Update:
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