I think I see the problem some are having with Trump’s Iran negotiations. I’m not talking about the lunatics on the Left, nor the pathetic Never Trumpers, worn out Neo-Cons and assorted grifters. No: I’m talking about those who want victory and fear Trump is throwing it away. Here we go:
They neither understand what constitutes victory, nor understand why we lost all of the post-WWII wars.
The first part is easier: most people, on the whole, don’t understand military or foreign affairs (this is especially true among senior military and State Department personnel, until Trump II). Lacking such knowledge, they feel that there should be an abject surrender ala Reims or Tokyo Bay. Gotta tell ya: these are not usual. In fact, they’re nearly unique. Of course, total war is nearly unique…the world approached it in WWI and went overboard on it in WWII, but such is not the norm. Usually the enemy quits before all resources are exhausted – that is, the leadership weighs things and figures that continued fighting is more costly than peace, and so peace is made.
In my view, the demand for unconditional surrender was a gigantic strategic and moral mistake. The Germans and Japanese were already determined enough to fight hard; that demand just fused their peoples into a determined mass willing to fight to the last man. Had we offered a way out, the voices of ceasefire would have been able to rise to the top. We should have offered peace to a non-Nazi Germany on basis of her 1938 borders. Peace to a Japan willing to surrender all post-1932 conquests. Heck, we should have worked Germany to overthrow the Hitler regime and place Rupprecht of Bavaria on a new German throne (thoroughly Royal, despised the Nazis, wanted to curb Prussian militarism – just perfect, actually). The demand for unconditional surrender probably extended the war at least a year longer than otherwise…with untold millions being killed as a result. Plus half of Europe in Soviet hands with no major Continental Power able to stand athwart Stalin’s ambitions. It is not a good idea to totally destroy your enemy…you might need him as a friend. Often very soon. Look how quickly we actually needed a powerful Germany after 1945. Japan, too. Didn’t have them, so we had to take the whole burden upon ourselves.
So much for the easy part – that is, people just not knowing that you can win a war and leave your enemy alive. Now, to the second part: why did we lose all those wars?
Quite simple: we held back the full application of our power against an enemy who was supported by outside powers we deemed off limits to retaliation. It is really nothing more than that. Or do you really think some Korean and Vietnamese peasants could do what the Waffen SS and Japanese soldiers failed to do? Sorry, no: they didn’t beat us in a stand up fight. They didn’t, in fact, beat us at all. We beat ourselves. Failure to apply power. Failure to take the steps necessary to victory. Allowing the conflicts to drag on for years, causing dismay among the American population. What we have done since 1945 is set ourselves up for defeat. Rather insane. Stupid, too. And you do wonder if we had people in our government deliberately setting this up? That’s for a later time. Suffice it to say that if we allowed our enemies to script our moves, it could not have ever come out worse.
Until Trump.
Trump is not a man of war. He takes a businessman’s view of it. That is, its bad for business. Why shoot when you can work a deal beneficial to both sides? This sort of view can get you into some trouble (it fails to take in to consideration the simple passions which war can cause), but on the whole it is the best way to go about it…because war is a business. A nasty one, to be sure. As the old saying goes, amateurs talk strategy, professionals talk logistics. Business, that is. Not the glorious charge or the clever flanking move…but how can I get this many troops there by this day? How long can I supply them? How large are the enemy’s supplies? Who can produce more supplies over time? These are the questions which real generals ponder. And Trump seems to instinctively know this – and so his plan, when he put it in motion, was two fold: hammer the leadership in hopes of an uprising and hammer Iran’s economy so that even if there wasn’t an uprising, whoever was in charge would have to come to the table. We haven’t engaged in that sort of warfare since 1945. There was no uprising…but Iran’s economy is in shambles. They came to the table because if they couldn’t start selling as much oil as the market can bear, there would be an uprising because the Iranian people are running out of food.
Iran also has no outside power willing to bankroll them. Russia and China are friendly, but neither want to tangle with us over Iran. Plus we just demonstrated that Russian and Chinese military hardware is worthless on the battlefield against us. Just as they had to after the first Gulf War, they are now pausing to rethink their whole strategic worldview. They are once again unsure they can actually fight us – so, time to lay low. A year ago the Chinese might have been thinking they could send a naval task force to contest our control of the Arabian Gulf…but not today. All they’d be doing is providing excellent naval scrap. Without a patron, without the ability to endlessly kill Americans, with their economy on the verge of collapse…they really had to come to the table.
Can we trust them? Of course not! But peace doesn’t require trust. No more than alliance does. It requires shared interests. Right now, Iran has a vested interest in a calm middle east. A time for it to recover a bit. Build a bit. Reconsider strategic choices. Argue amongst themselves who gets to be in charge. We, too, need a calm middle east and an Iran no longer sabre rattling all over the Middle East. We need time for the peace efforts to really take hold and encompass the entire region. This is why Trump was so mad at Israel for bombing terrorists in Lebanon: for very small returns – killing a few more terrorists – Israel nearly upset the apple cart. Hey, I get it: Israel would like all her enemies dead. But Israel, herself, refused to do this in Gaza. For the most decent and humane reasons, to be sure, but it totally undercuts bloodthirsty demands about Iran…as well Hezbollah creeps in Lebanon (who probably haven’t been paid in months given Iran’s troubles). Both sides need peace – and so we’re going to try to make it. And even if the Mullah regime survives, that isn’t a defeat. It is, in fact, a victory – because Iran’s whole thing has been to disturb the peace.
Blogs For Victory 
Looks like one side of the power structure in Iran, the IRGC, wants nothing to do with the peace deal. Color me shocked//sarc
They are violent and dishonorable tyrants who lie as easily as they breathe so unfortunately I don’t think we have a choice but to go back in and finish the job. I feel sorry for the Iranian people. What’s sad is that Iran never was a Muslim country, they were Persians who are held hostage by Muslims. Let’s bring the Persians back.
Actually, I think the ones who don’t want peace are Twelvers, and they’re simply not rational. Full disclosure: I believe in the end times as outlined in Revelations, but I don’t believe in doing everything I can to hasten it’s coming. The Twelvers do.
At bottom, everyone non-west is violent and dishonorable. Only the Japanese come close to the Western ideal here (and even then, we’ve seen that Bushido can be cast in some rather bad ways). Everyone else is locked into some variation of tribal violence/lies/thievery. One thing nobody has pointed out is that of course we militarily crushed the Iranians. They are East – the East cannot beat the West. Not ever. They lack that background we have stemming from Greece to Rome to Christian knighthood. The Civic Militarism which allowed Western Armies – even quite small ones – routinely destroy the hordes of the East. Of non-Christian peoples, only Jews and (again) Japanese have some of that same capacity.
You think about the Yom Kippur War…and, sure, the Arabs – especially the Egyptians – did manage to create tactical surprise. Good for them. And for a few days they managed to inflict some serious harm on the Israelis. But they only managed this with a 4 to 1 manpower superiority…and within days the still heavily outnumbered Israelis completely wrecked the Egyptian Army. They were of the East. They didn’t know how to fight. They can’t know how to fight – not with people like us. It isn’t within their background. Give them all the weapons and training you like…they won’t stand in ranks like a Westerner and take the punishment, knowing that even if they die, others of their like are already working to undo the enemy. As soon as an non-Western soldier feels the game is up, he runs away or surrenders. He also usually despises his officers (and is despised in turn by his officers) because none of them are citizens of the nation…they are mere pawns for various tribal power brokers.
There really isn’t a problem beyond that of logistics in beating these people – as soon as the men and material are in place, the outcome is already determined. And the only way for this to change is for the East to become Christian…and even then it would take a few centuries.
Yep – expected by me. This is the jockeying for power. Iran – as an entity – needs peace. But those who are committed to Death to America/Israel…that is, those only form of employment/graft is pushing those ideas…are on the outs if a peace deal gets made. Sane people look at the costs against the benefits…and anyone sane in Iran knows it is time to quit. But for those who’s only way to wealth and power is via insanity…well, they’ve got to keep the lunacy going. It is like – and I mean exactly like – the SPLC paying people to be Nazis and Klansmen…they have to. They have no reason for existence is there aren’t Nazis and Klansmen around. Their way to wealth and power is via an lunatic obsession with race. And if there isn’t racism to fight, time to close up shop. Or pay for some racism.
Can the lunatics prevail in Iran and derail the deal? Possibly. We’ll see. If they do, then it is going to be a very, very bad time for the Iranian people and they’ll really come to regret not overthrowing the Mullah regime when they had a chance. But, also, so sad, too bad: that is their problem, not ours. Our only problems will be delivering the very large amounts of high explosive we’ll deploy if the deal really falls apart.
Personally, I think the sane part of the leadership will emerge on top…a combination of kills, bribes and promises of future insanity will likely bring enough of the lunatics to heel to make the deal workable.
I am a little disappointed in the Mossad. I thought for sure they would have had covert operatives in the country assassinating any hard liner going for power, and fomenting a citizen uprising. That’s a missed opportunity.
Oh, they’re down pretty far in the food chain…that is part of why its a bit confused…nobody is really in charge…is all like a battle between battalion commanders.
Just as I put down my phone to come online and read your post I was listening to an interview with John Kiriakou where he talked about the days (2009) when every Tuesday morning at 7:00 a.m. John Brennan would have what was called the “Kill List” meeting where various officials including some from the CIA would come up with that week’s list of people to kill, around the world. This would then be sent to the president for approval.
This is exactly what I would have expected from Israel and Mossad.
My kids were 6 and 10, and I was the age in 1979 that my granddaughter is now, and I have a great granddaughter that will be in high school in a couple of years. The point being that Iran is 3 generations removed from a westernized culture, and the majority of the Iranian people have never known anything but a radical Islamic theocracy. Pretty tough to go back. Clearly the yearning for freedom is not as integral a part of the Iranian spirit as it would be with Americans if we were subject to the same radical change.
Off topic, but extremely well put (compliments of Robert Malone)
When I had two ranch interns from the Royal Veterinary College in the UK we went to our local supermarket—and, in the mountains, while it was a Kroger’s it was far from one of the largest. The girls disappeared, and I finally found them in front of the frozen food section, trying to process the varieties of ice cream. For the rest of their term, they often referred back to this, in tones of awe.
Happy Father’s Day to all the dads here.
Right back at you Spook, and I too love watching these videos about the soccer fans who love our country. I heard one guy say that you actually can get ice with your drinks here which we had to laugh at because we were recently in Europe and when you order a Coke, it comes with one ice cube lol
But the Europeans have that undefinable je ne sais quoi that makes them so much cooler//sarc
Do I understand you correctly that Europe is a nice place to visit, but you wouldn’t want to live there?
Exactly …. Love it there but America is definitely home