As I told you it would be:

Estimated GDP growth for the third quarter has been revised downward again, to 2.2% from an initial estimate of 3.5% (it was also revised downward last month). That means that the Cash-for-Clunkers program accounts for most of the growth:

Motor vehicle output added 1.45 percentage points to the third-quarter change in real GDP after adding 0.19 percentage point to the second-quarter change. Final sales of computers subtracted 0.08 percentage point from the third-quarter change in real GDP after subtracting 0.04 percentage point from the second-quarter change.

Take away that 1.45 percentage points and you get 0.75% growth – anyone want to bet me that other government spending accounted for most or all of that? I’ll bet dollars to donuts that the private, productive economy contracted in the third quarter – and is continuing to contract right now.

Its all smoke and mirrors, as I’ve said. It will come crashing down. Will it crash by March as I expect? No one can say for certain – but crash it will. Bank on it.

Interesting:

In the end, Connecticut Democrats can’t make Sen. Chris Dodd choose to retire. They can go to him and urge him to think about the joys of an ambassadorship, or teaching, or heading up some organization and raking the cash in by the bucketload. They could publicly endorse a serious primary challenger.

A former state party chair talking about how someone ought to urge him to retire is probably giving Democrats the worst of both worlds. Dodd isn’t likely to take the advice, and Connecticut voters notice, “Wow, even Democratic party officials are sick of this guy.”

This isn’t confirmation that the “Torricelli maneuver” — a last-minute, not-entirely-voluntary candidate switch — is coming down the pike, but clearly some Democrats in that state have thought about it.

And Connecticut is a rather blue State, isn’t it? And yet here is a long term, Democrat incumbent who is, to put it mildly, on thin electoral ice. If voters in Connecticut are angry enough to toss out a senior Democrat, how mad to you think the voters in the red States are? Especially in those GOP districts currently held by Democrats?

Getting a net gain of 41 House and 11 Senate seats is an exceptionally tall order for the GOP (11 in the Senate because if its 50/50, VP Biden breaks the tie and Democrats remain in control) – but, clearly, winning big is not out of the question.

Our problem, as GOPers, is twofold:

1. To craft a revolutionary message which will resonate with voter anger over the disgusting sewer which is American government.

2. Figuring out a way around the myriad ways Democrats will attempt to cheat in order to limit losses. The removal of Torricelli in NJ wasn’t just non-voluntary, it was entirely illegal, in to the bargain. Democrats will stick at nothing – I really can’t imagine anything they wouldn’t do in order to win.

But if we craft the message and carry it home against all vulnerable Democrats, then even with Democrat cheating, we still stand to make big gains next year – and, just perhaps, gains which will astound the world.

This isn’t the sub-prime stuff, good people – these are the loans made to well-qualified people:

Serious delinquencies among U.S. prime mortgages rose nearly 20 percent in the third quarter from the prior quarter, as the percentage of current and performing mortgages fell for the sixth consecutive quarter, banking regulators said on Monday.

The report by the Office of Comptroller of the Currency and the Office of Thrift Supervision, which are part of the Treasury Department, covered about two-thirds of all U.S. mortgages.

It found 3.6 percent of prime mortgages — those made to the most credit-worthy borrowers — were seriously delinquent in the third quarter. That was more than double the year-ago quarter and up nearly 20 percent from the … second quarter.

The report defined “serious delinquencies” as those loans 60 days or more past due…

It isn’t getting better out there – not in the least. And with all the bubbles being built up by the Fed and central banks around the world (especially China) its just a matter of time before the second crash hits. To be sure, the fools who got us in to this mess can continue to play fast and loose with the money supply and, perhaps, keep the ball in the air for even as much as a year or two, but without wealth creation, we’re doomed to another crash. And the bad news is we can’t create wealth if governments are printing and borrowing like mad (any real gains in wealth will be wasted effort as money and debt rise faster).

Only a complete reversal can save the situation – we have to stop borrowing, stop printing and clear the decks to allow a bit of wealth creation and “clearing the decks” means, among other things, allowing “too big to fail” corporations to do just that.

HAT TIP: Mish’s

The news:

One is a former vice presidential candidate who has been vilified in much of the press. The other is a former two-term vice president who has been celebrated in much of the press. So which is more respected by the public at large?

In the Wall Street Journal/NBC poll released a few days ago, pollsters Peter Hart and Bill McInturff asked, “I’m going to mention some people who have served in public life at some point in the past decade. Please tell me which one or two of these people, if any, you have the most regard and respect for.” The list was filled with the predictable answers. The president was on top, named by 28 percent of respondents. Colin Powell was also way up there. But the striking thing is that Sarah Palin, after all the criticism that has been directed at her, finished tied for sixth place, respected by 13 percent of respondents, and Al Gore, after all the praise that has been directed at him, was in eighth place, respected by eight percent. (The poll was taken just before the global warming fiasco in Copenhagen, which seems unlikely to have a positive effect Gore’s ratings.)

Caveat: being better respected than Al Gore is akin to being better respected than a crazed chimpanzee – but, hey, the MSM is what set up this contest.

From the supposed party of tolerance:

They are desperate to break this president. They have ardent supporters who are nearly hysterical at the very election of President Barack Obama. The birthers, the fanatics, the people running around in right-wing militia and Aryan support groups, it is unbearable to them that President Barack Obama should exist. That is one powerful reason. It is not the only one.

We won’t forget – and we’ve taken enough insults from liberals. 2012 is not such a long way off and I’m sure we’re going to do everything we can to get intolerant, un-American cretins like Whitehouse out of office.

UPDATE: Let what is going to happen to Sen. Dorgan (D-ND) next year be an indicator of what we will do to all of those who have betrayed American principles.

UPDATE II: Reid defends ObamaCare bribes.

Outside of military/terrorist threats to American lives, there is no more important issue for us to deal with:

…”at all levels, federal, state, local and GSEs, the total public debt is now at 141% of GDP. That puts the United States in some elite company–only Japan, Lebanon and Zimbabwe are higher. That’s only the start. Add household debt (highest in the world at 99% of GDP) and corporate debt (highest in the world at 317% of GDP, not even counting off-balance-sheet swaps and derivatives) and our total debt is 557% of GDP. Less than three years ago our total indebtedness crossed 500% of GDP for the first time.”

Add the unfunded portion of entitlement programs and we’re at 840% of GDP.

The world has not seen such debt levels in modern history. This debt is not serviceable. Imagine that total debt is 557% of GDP, without considering entitlements. The interest on the debt will consume all the tax revenues of the country in the not-too-distant future. Then there will be no way out but to create more debt in order to finance the old debt.

It assures a period of economic devastation. In a last, desperate attempt, politicians at the federal and local levels will raise taxes to astronomical heights to raise revenues. And that only assures destruction of the economy. Forget the fable of economic recovery. Unless there is a change in Washington by next year’s election, there will be no way to turn back.

No way to turn back? Well, think of it like this – Japan had its September, 2008 19 years ago and they are still mired in the crushing debt and resulting recession which started waaay back then. Think we can’t go through generations of economic malaise? If you think its impossible – if you think some magical “business cycle” will turn things around – then you are living in a fool’s paradise.

We must balance the budget. Now. Not next year. Not ten years from now; we need to do it right away. Yes, I know it will be hard – as a people we will have to hunker down and help each other but government must start to spend less than it takes in and it must do this without raising taxes to a ruinous height.

Of course, we won’t do it, now. With Obama and the liberals in charge, it is “full speed ahead” with more debt – and anyone who thinks that ObamaCare will actually lower government spending is a knave or fool. But we can’t go on much longer – we’re overburdened (so is most of the rest of the First World) and we have to shake ourselves free from the liberal/socialist illusions of the past century.

For those who would compromise core belief:

“What profit is there for one to gain the whole world and forfeit his life? What could one give in exchange for his life? Whoever is ashamed of me and of my words in this faithless and sinful generation, the Son of Man will be ashamed of when he comes in his Father’s glory with the holy angels.”- Mark 8:36-38

This isn’t going to go away:

…We know exactly what human life costs – the price of a vote. Be it millions or billions, there is ultimately a figure at which men will sell each other for personal gain. I suppose that fact has always been true, but this year it seems much more profane because the ones being sold to the executioner are our own children.

It is unspeakably crass and repugnant that Reid and this Administration are demanding this national monstrosity be finalized by Christmas. It is a sad, sad testament to the fact that our nation has lost its soul. We will commemorate the birth of the Christ Child by passing legislation that mandates the use of people’s tax dollars to pay for abortion nationwide. “Happy Birthday, Jesus. I guess You’re lucky to have made it out of the womb alive.”

It is a telling irony that we should not miss. We should pay close attention to the bitterness of this timeline and heed the warning. How can we welcome the Infant King when we refuse to welcome our own infants? Indeed, we do not welcome our own children precisely because we do not welcome Christ. It is no wonder we don’t recognize Him…

It seems there are no “blue dog” Democrats. No “moderate” Democrats. No “pro-life” Democrats. Are there two types of Democrats – those who have sold their souls, and those who are still waiting for the right price? Can anyone with pro-life views remain part of the Democrat party? Not only are pro-lifers suppressed in the Democrat party, but now we see that even those who allegedly believe in life can be bought off.

This horrendous, anti-human bill now looks certain to go to Conference where Nancy, Reid and their cronies in Big Government and Big Corporation will gather ’round to carve up American health care. The result of this – likely with little notice and without being put out where the people can read it – will then be presented for up or down votes in the House and Senate. It is to the House that those who value life now turn their attention – with the Stupak Amendment, the House passed Obamacare with only two votes to spare. If the Conference bill comes out with no Stupak or some watered down, fool-only-a-knave language, then it will be up to pro-life Democrats in the House to let us know, once and for all, if a pro-life person can with honor remain part of the Democrat party.

And it brushes ever closer to the seat of power:

…In the past 10 days, two major developments have occurred. First, Obama administration attorneys continued their efforts to deny Mr. Walpin his day in court. On Dec. 7, they filed reply briefs rearguing their demand that the case be dismissed without even a hearing. Second, Rep. Darrell Issa of California and Sen. Charles E. Grassley of Iowa, both Republicans, have openly questioned the honesty of CNCS Chairman Alan D. Solomont. Most explosively of all, dirty deeds may have been employed to hide extensive involvement in the affair by the office of first lady Michelle Obama, whom the White House months earlier had announced would play “a central role in the national service agenda.”

Mr. Walpin’s suit claims that President Obama did not abide by the requirement in the Inspector General Act that IGs be given 30 days’ notice before being “removed” from office. Mr. Walpin instead was placed on “paid administrative leave” for 30 days. The new administration brief argues that such “leave” does not constitute “removal.”

Mr. Walpin’s suit explained that the entire reason for the 30-day-notice requirement is to ward off political interference with ongoing investigations. The administrative leave that denied him access to all the tools of his job, he contended, effectively “removed” him just as he was following up on two reports extremely critical of close allies of the Obamas or of Mr. Solomont…

Any government official who is arguing that a critic should not even have a day in court is a government official hiding the truth. Period. We can now rest assured that Walpin was, at the least, close to things which would have caused acute embarrassment to the Obama Administration, even if they didn’t rise to criminal behavior. And the longer and harder the Administration fights against the truth coming out, the more likely it is that a genuine crime is being covered up.

It always amazes just how swiftly Democrats start to engage in unethical behavior once they obtain office – like the ill-famed Clinton Administration, it looks as though the Obama Administration was playing fast and loose with the rules from Day One. For now, Obama and Co are safe – with Holder as AG there’s no chance of a criminal investigation and with Democrats firmly in control of the relevant House and Senate committees, there is no chance that Congressional oversight will find anything.

But 2010 is coming, and after that we might have a chance to find the truth…

I give some thoughts on this over at Nevada News and Views