The Republic of South Sudan

Mark Noonan7 Comments

From Bloomberg:

The Republic of South Sudan was declared an independent nation today in the capital, Juba, as tens of thousands of people celebrated their freedom after almost 50 years of rebellion against the Muslim north.

The national flag was raised for the first time after the declaration of independence was read by the speaker of the South Sudanese parliament, James Wani Igga. Celebrations started at midnight when church bells rang as a countdown clock flashed “free at last.”…

I don’t think any nation ever started with more against it than South Sudan – generations of war and oppression lead up to this moment, and the nation is probably the poorest in the world.  The article goes on to note that there is a total of 100 miles of paved roads in the country.  On the other hand, it does sit atop rather large oil reserves and now that it is free from the north, the people there will start to see some benefits.

It is to be hoped that the new government will go absolutely free market – using only oil revenues to sustain the government and having no other taxes and minimal regulations on new businesses, South Sudan can swiftly become prosperous.  Literally, just let ‘er rip…if they set up what amounts to an area of completely free trade, money will pour in for investment.  It’ll still take 50 years to rise, but the change will be phenomenal and will start to raise up the people very quickly.

More importantly, to me, is the example this provides – both as to the oppression that Islam deals out to all non-Moslem people and the fact that separation is the only way to resolve that issue.  Following upon South Sudan we also need Assyria (out of Iraq), South Egypt, South Lebanon, a piece of the West Bank for the small Christian community there (a strip of land around Bethlehem would be best) and probably several other Christian enclaves out of other Moslem nations.  It is just a fact that Christians cannot obtain peace and justice in Moslem lands – what the Moslems did in South Sudan was by far the worst, but in all Moslem lands the lives, freedom and property of the Christians are at the mercy of the least Moslem whim.

It is time to face up to the facts – civilized behavior towards “the other” is a long way off in Islam, and until that developes it is best that no non-Moslems be forced to endure Islamic rule.

Boehner Seeks Limited Budget Deal

Mark Noonan28 Comments

A statement from the Speaker:

Despite good-faith efforts to find common ground, the White House will not pursue a bigger debt reduction agreement without tax hikes. I believe the best approach may be to focus on producing a smaller measure, based on the cuts identified in the Biden-led negotiations, that still meets our call for spending reforms and cuts greater than the amount of any debt limit increase.

It does appear we are at an impasse – Democrats won’t go for a major package without tax hikes, while we can’t accept tax hikes.  Unless there was a cave-in by the GOP, this is pretty much what I expected.

Of course, it would be better if we didn’t agree to any increase in the debt limit – there would be scare stories aplenty if that happened and the markets would at least temporarily tank…but as the markets are due to tank, anyway, the actual economic effect would be minimal.  And I do believe that as on the morrow of no new debt the world did not end, people would shrug off the event and any hit we took in the polls would be short-lived – and the long term payoff would be immense as the people would absolutely trust us on the matter of the budget.

But, we don’t quite have that sort of Congress, yet.  We’ll have to work for one in 2012 – meanwhile, a mini-deal which actually cuts spending will be good for the country and good for us…and we can carry the fight in to next year, with the Democrats having to defend Big Government while we defend freedom.

Now, if we could only get the GOP leadership to make it a fight against Big Government and Big Corporation and really hang the rotten system on the Democrats, that would be wonderful…

Chances for Budget Deal Fade

Mark Noonan12 Comments

From the New York Times:

President Obama’s drive for a supersize budget deal was further complicated on Friday by the release of unexpectedly weak employment figures, which Republicans seized on to bolster their arguments against possible tax increases and Democrats said were reason to limit painful spending cuts…

If this does create an impasse then that will probably be for the best – no tax hikes can be contemplated, and massive spending cuts must be done.  This is the requirement of common sense in this – we’re bankrupt and we must not spend as much as we have been; meanwhile, our economy is teetering on the edge of a new recession and so we don’t dare put even the lightest additional burden on it.  If Democrats can’t see their way to clear to merely roll back spending to 2008 levels – all that would be required – then there is nothing to discuss.

We’ll see how this comes out, but it does appear that the Congressional GOP has discovered a back bone (or had one implanted by the TEA Party) and at the very least any deal which does come out will be defensible on conservative/libertarian grounds.

Betty Ford, RIP

Mark Noonan2 Comments

From ABC:

Betty Ford, wife of former President Gerald Ford and the founder of the Betty Ford Center for substance abuse and addiction, has died at age 93.

In public, she was one of the most visible and outspoken first ladies in history. In private, she triumphed over serious personal adversity.

She was married to Gerald Ford for 58 years. Shortly after becoming president in 1974, Ford said, “I am indebted to no man and to only one woman, my dear wife.”

Ford died Friday at the Eisenhower Medical Center in Rancho Mirage, Calif., ABC News has learned. Her cause of death was not immediately clear…

God rest her soul.

Obama’s Pennsylvania Troubles

Mark Noonan3 Comments

From Public Policy Polling:

Pennsylvania is looking more and more like it could be a tough hold for Barack Obama in 2012. His approval rating in the state continues to be under water at 46/48. More voters have expressed disapproval than happiness with Obama on all three polls PPP has done in the state so far in 2011. And even though Obama took Pennsylvania by 10 points in 2008 the best he can muster right now in a head to head match up with Mitt Romney is a tie…

It is best to still rate Pennsylvania as “Lean Democrat” for the 2012 campaign – it has been a reliably blue State in Presidential politics since 1992, so we have to assume that Obama will pull it out.  This is especially true given that Democrats absolutely control the Philadelphia area and are always willing to manufacture enough votes there to counter-balance the GOP elsewhere in the State.  On the other hand, the GOP controls the Pennsylvania governorship and legislature, and that will put a damper on Democrat ability to cheat…might get caught, you know?

One thing is certain, though, is that if Obama can’t win Pennsylvania then he can’t be re-elected President of the United States.  The GOP doesn’t need the State (we can get together 285 electoral votes just by winning the same States as Bush did in 2000 thanks to population growth in the red States…heck, we can even let Obama have New Hampshire and Colorado of the Bush 2000 States and still have 272), but Obama does…and if he loses it, it means that he is likely also losing New Hampshire, Michigan and Wisconsin; in other words, for Obama to lose Pennsylvania means that he’s heading for a landslide loss.

And that is what this poll shows – Obama losing Pennsylvania.  But, don’t anyone get too excited about this.  Obama will spend a billion dollars and will leave no stone unturned to win in 2012.  It will be the hardest fought campaign in history and we can lose it, easily, if we screw up – especially if we screw up by thinking we’ve got it in the bag.  Fight, fight and then fight some more – that is what we have to do in 2012.

EPA Playing Politics With Environmental Regulations

Mark Noonan3 Comments

From the PJ Tatler:

…Just take a look at the states the EPA decided to leave off the rule change.

“The challenge from the new rule, known as the Cross State Air Pollution Rule, is that stricter limits take effect next year, giving power-plant owners little time to comply.

Texas was not included in the EPA’s draft rule related to sulfur dioxide cuts because EPA modeling had shown little downwind impact from Texas power plants on other states.

On Thursday, however, the EPA said Texas would be required to meet lower SO2 limits to avoid allowing the state to increase emissions.

Five states — Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Louisiana, Massachusetts, along with the District of Columbia — were dropped from the final EPA rule.”

Three blue states and two swing states get left off, while Texas gets added even though the EPA’s own model shows little evidence that emissions from Texas impact other states at all. Nah, there’s no politics here.

No, no politics at all – but if you need to burden Texas so that it will stop performing so well economically, then it is precisely what you need to do.  Seems that Obama and Co are quite frightened of the prospect of a Perry candidacy.

Obamunism! Unemployment at 9.2%

Mark Noonan37 Comments

From CNBC:

U.S. employment growth ground to a halt in June, with employers hiring the fewest number of workers in nine months, dousing hopes the economy would regain momentum in the second half of the year.

Nonfarm payrolls rose only 18,000, the weakest reading since September, the Labor Department said on Friday, well below economists’ expectations for a 90,000 rise.

The unemployment rate climbed to a six-month high of 9.2 percent, even as jobseekers left the labor force in droves, from 9.1 percent in May…(emphasis added)

So, if the BLS hadn’t removed as many workers from the labor force this past month, it would have shot up even higher.  I do believe the data is being manipulated – not to the point of outright lie, but to the point of getting the rosiest data possible.  After all, the number of people who leave the labor force every money is really not known – experts estimate and there are probably several sets of estimates.  My bet is that among the various estimates the BLS is pulling out those that make it look best.  Imagine how it would look otherwise – I think that unemployment would be closer to 12% right now.

Aside from that, no matter how you slice it the economy isn’t recovering.  In fact, a strong case can be made that we’re already back in to recession it just hasn’t shown in the data.  But even if we are not and will not fall in to official recession, the economy simply is not doing well.  In order to get unemployment just down to 8% by November of 2012 will take a net gain of a couple hundred thousand jobs per month between now and then…anyone out there see that happening?

In other news, a top Obama adviser is asserting that people won’t care about unemployment in 2012…

UPDATE:  From Mish – “unmitigated disaster“.

UPDATE II:  More from Mish –

…Digging deeper into the Household Survey, we see some more interesting data. In the last year, the civilian population rose by 1,799,000. Yet the labor force dropped by 263,000. Those not in the labor force rose by 2,063,000.

Last month the labor force rose by 272,000. This month the labor force fell by 272,000. How’s that for symmetry?…

Symmetry?  More like bull.