special elections

Special Elections

Mark Noonan19 Comments

Here are the AP results for the NY-9 race, and the NV-2 race.

The NV-2 race is just about a foregone conclusion – as it turns out, I’ve been up in Reno the past few days and so caught a bit of the GOP advertising:  all Obama, all the time…”don’t send a rubber-stamp to DC”, that sort of thing.  I don’t recall they even mentioned the Democrat candidate’s name.  Expectations are for a double-digit GOP blowout…but Mark Amodei, taking nothing for granted, has been pressing the turnout efforts.

The polls in the NY-9 race just closed a few minutes ago and while polling has been good for the GOP, I do expect a Democrat win…they are pulling out all the stops and the district does have a reputation for voter fraud.  But even if the Democrats managed to squeak out a win, it will be a signal for defeat in 2012 unless Obama changes course.  And if the GOP does pull out a win, just that much more devastating for the Democrats.

UPDATE:  In NV-02, Amodei has 64% against Marshall’s 31%; NY-09, Turner has 51% against Weprin’s 48%; still way early.

UPDATE II:  NY-09, 271 of 512 precincts reporting, GOP winning 53/46; NV-09, 166 of 858 reporting, GOP winning 58/37.

UPDATE III:  AP calls NY-09 for Republican Bob Turner.  First GOP win in NY-09 since 1921.  Dems already spinning it as  meaningless…meanwhile, in private, they are starting to wonder if they should “primary” Obama…

UPDATE IV:  AP calls NV-02 for Republican Mark Amodei.  A crushing victory – 57% to 37%.

Obama Hurting Democrats in Special Elections

Mark Noonan7 Comments

From The Hill:

Dissatisfaction with President Obama is hurting Democrats’ chances in two House special elections that will take place on Tuesday.

In a Democratic-leaning New York City seat previously held by Democratic Rep. Anthony Weiner, some prominent local Democrats have endorsed Republican Bob Turner because of Obama’s handling of Israel, while Democrat David Weprin has sought distance from the president.

In a GOP-leaning Nevada district left vacant when Dean Heller was appointed to the Senate, Republicans are using Obama as a cudgel against Democratic candidate Kate Marshall, featuring him in all of their ads while mostly ignoring her…

There never was much chance of the Democrats winning in NV-02.  The district – which covers most of Nevada outside of Clark County (think: Las Vegas) is an R +5 district which has been held by the GOP since it was created for the 1982 election.  But Democrats have come close before – in 2006 the GOP only squeaked out a victory with 50.3% of the vote, while in 2008 the GOP only slightly improved to 51.8%…on the other hand, in 2010 former Representative Heller crushed the Democrat 63/33.  Democrats might have imagined when Heller was appointed to replace Ensign that they could have a shot of returning to the 2006/08 scenario…but that just isn’t going to happen.  All indications are for the the GOP nominee, Mark Amodei, to win by 20+ points.

Meanwhile, over in New York we GOPers never thought we had a chance – even with Weiner’s scandals, we figured that Democrats – who seem to have an unending tolerance of Democrat corruption – would just line up behind whomever has the “D” after their name.  All in all, we have to figure that the Democrats will pull out the win.  But, there is that chance the GOP will win…and if we do, it is entirely due to Obama being President, just as NV-02 once again becoming overwhelmingly GOP is thanks to President Obama.  I’ve studied a bit of history, I’ve looked in to how leadership works – when it is successful, when it fails – but I don’t think I’ve ever come across a man more manifestly incompetent to hold high, executive office.  Obama just doesn’t know how to do it – getting snookered on the recent joint session is the latest proof of this…I mean, come on, this is basic stuff…don’t announce the date until you’ve got a firm commitment from the Speaker!  A self-inflicted wound, and entirely un-necessary.  And its been like that from day one with Obama…just not doing it right and ensuring that no matter what gets down, it ends up being as bad as possible for himself.

We’ll see how it continues to play out…but I agree with Mickey Kaus that liberal outfits are starting to break it gently to the Democrats.