Asia Times has a bleak report about the ability of Taiwan to fight off an attack from China – the bottom line of it being that by 2020 China may have the capability to force a Taiwanese surrender.
The growth of Chinese military sophistication and China’s continual build up of weapons systems designed to counter American power is increasingly leaving Taiwan in a strategically untenable position. If Taiwan cannot count on rapid and powerful American support, then resistance to any Chinese attack would be exceptionally difficult, and very likely doomed if China deployed all its power. In the end, all a really firm resistance by the Taiwanese can accomplish – absent US support – is to make a graveyard of Taiwan (while also killing some hundreds of thousands of Chinese in payment). So, what does Taiwan do? And what does America do about it?
It is still some years before China can feel certain that a sea-borne invasion of Taiwan could be carried out in the face of US naval intervention – both in the air and undersea, the Chinese military is not even close to being able to stop us from blocking a move to Taiwan. They can rain down death and destruction, but that is not what China would prefer to do. Taiwan is very wealthy and China would like to capture it intact (Taiwan’s 23 million people produce $35,700.00 in GDP per person, China’s 1.3 billion produce $7,300.00 in GDP per person). Raining down death and destruction (or threatening to) can get Taiwan to make a huge amount of concessions…but only a credible threat to leap across the sea and invade would convince Taiwan’s government to surrender. That, as I said, is some years away…so Taiwan and the United States have a window of opportunity to make plans to deal with this.
The best way to deal with it, in my view, is to make Taiwan a nuclear-armed power. Taiwan, un-aided, will forever lack the ability to defend itself in conventional war against China – the population disparities are so great that if China attacks, then Taiwan is ultimately doomed, even if they do put up a spirited fight and make the Chinese pay a usurious blood price for conquest (and, of course, the Chinese government is never chary with the blood of the Chinese people…sacrificing a million of them to gain prestige may be seen as all in a day’s work by the Chinese leadership). Taiwan, aided by us, wins the war against China. But can Taiwan really count on US aid? Suppose we have a flabby President at the time? Suppose our military has been hollowed out by budget cuts to preserve free birth control? Suppose China’s cat’s paw in North Korea is ordered to engage us in war there just before China attacks Taiwan? Counting on us is not something Taiwan can do. So, self defense – but that is only possible for a small State like Taiwan via nuclear weapons.
Taiwan has the wealth and the technical capacity to build nuclear weapons, install them on missiles and deploy those missiles on submarines. A force of four or five “Dolphin” class submarines, like those Israel has, armed with nuclear-tipped missiles would be sufficient for Taiwan to retain at sea a credible nuclear deterrent (you need four or five so that you can always have two or three deployed). Israel would probably even be willing to help out, and we can provide clandestine assistance as well, though Taiwan would have to be on its own as far as nuclear weapons development due to our treaty obligations on non-proliferation. Taiwan, right now, has just enough time to do this before China becomes powerful enough to enforce a surrender. Faced with the prospect of a dozen or so nuclear weapons being detonated over Shanghai, Hong Kong and other major Chinese cities, the Chinese government simply would not attack – not ever: it would never repay the cost (monetary, I mean, not blood…as I said, I doubt much that the Chinese government cares how many people die).
The choice is ultimately Taiwan’s – do they wish to be free? I, for one, will always back coming to Taiwan’s aid because my view is that the United States can never afford having a free people be conquered by external tyranny. Even at the cost of World War Three, we should fight China if China ever attacks Taiwan. But Taiwan simply cannot count on my view holding majority support in the United States…or, even if it does, count on the American government at the time being able and willing to assist. If Taiwan’s people wish to remain in freedom, then their choice is clear…build nuclear weapons and count on the ability to destroy China as their assurance against Chinese attack.
Blogs For Victory 
I am all for selling the Taiwanese any military hardware and munitions upto and including strategic nuclear weapons. The Taiwanese will themselves determine if they want to be free or not.
The western europeans lived rent free from 1945 to 1989 under a nuclear umbrella provided by the United States. I will not encourage ever again this kind of defensive military alliance.
If the Taiwanese want to have our protection maybe they should pay for some of it. Don’t ya think?
green,
that’s a great idea. So why don’t we do that with every nation on earth…including Israel.
let them buy whatever they want from us, but let’s stop GIVING them FREE MONEY and start letting them fend for their own.
You’d agree with that right? they can use our weapons to defend themselves, but THEY must do it alone.
tommyterdo
typical Jew hating, lefty muslim loving kneepadder.
Taiwan?
No
the Chinese will re take it and there is nothing we can or will do about it.
so because I want to stop giving free money to other countries and keep that money here for our citizens I am a jew hater?
man, you really got your fake marine panties in a twist over that one.
I wonder why you say we are broke, but then want to give free money to other nations instead of making them BUY it from us?? Are you even a capitalist system follower?
tommieterdo
$1oK
put up or STFU alligator mouth canary azz
yeh, like it’s that hard to fake documents showing you were in “Nam”
don’t make me laugh any harder than I already am.
So address the point…you’d rather give FREE MONEY instead of selling our equipment to Israel?
talk about looters and takers. I didn’t figure you as a water carrier for jews….guess I was wrong. Israel before USA in your world.
tommyturdo
verifiable big mouth, the offer stands you never was POS.
Jews before the US?
No, the Jews NEXT to the US. a partnership in democracy and peace in a dangerous muslem hate filled world.
Accusing Neo of being fake? LOL coming from the who? The jew from israel that cant speak hebrew or the german-american that cant speak german?
Or the Persian from Norway who hates America?
GMB,
In theory, all free nations should be able to count on American support if they are attacked by a tyrannical regime – in practice, of course, this may not be possible, for a variety of reasons. And, ultimately, a decision to live free or die is a decision a people make…American support or no, if the Taiwanese don’t wish to be free, then they shall be slaves. If they wish to be free – and be certain of it, even if we leave them hanging, then their only option is to go nuclear. Ultimately, Japan, South Korea and Vietnam will all have to go nuclear…to hold them over the time of China’s greatest power, until that power starts to decline with China’s population (or China destroys herself by directly going to war with us).
Mark, I understand where you are coming from belive me on this. What I am agaisnt is giving any nation a free ride anymore. I am all for mutual aid defensives alliances. What are the Tawanese doing to aid in thier own defense is the main question I would ask. If they want help from the United States they should be willing to pay for at least some of it.
No more free rides.
i would speculate…that just like china has helped NKorea…who has passed on that help to the Paki’s and Iranians…and Saddam…and Assad…and probably many more we are not aware of….taiwan is probably already nuclear…not much else would be holding the commies up…not the USA…no a conventional threat…but the unknowing…not of if…but how many….nukes taiwan already possesses
Just as by the by here. Israel is not living under the same umbrella we provided estern europa and south korea for free, for years. The Israeli’s can blow up a good sized portion of the all by thier lonesome.
Happy happy joy joy. 🙂
You need to find out how much of that military aid was required to be spent on U.S. made weapons. You need to find out how much sharing of technology and intelligence Isreal has done.
The Israeli’s have given what they can back. Europeans? ha dont make me laugh. South Korea ? Again HA! They only exist because we keep them existing.
Should of read like this… One of these days I will stop forgetting entire words and letters, but do not count on it. 🙂
Just as by the by here. Israel is not living under the same umbrella we provided western europe and south korea for free, for years. The Israeli’s can blow up a good sized portion of the world all by thier lonesome.
Happy happy joy joy. 🙂
You need to find out how much of that military aid was required to be spent on U.S. made weapons. You need to find out how much sharing of technology and intelligence Isreal has done.
The Israeli’s have given what they can back. Europeans? ha dont make me laugh. South Korea ? Again HA! They only exist because we keep them existing.
“tommy” is an anti-Israeli, anti-Jew, Iranian Persian. Who happens to despise the U.S.
Connect the dots.
connected and duly noted.