Unemployment at 8.3%

So, how is that hopey-changey thing working out for ya?  41 months at 8% or higher unemployment.  And with 150,000 dropping out of the labor force, you know that the real unemployment rate is much, much higher than the official number.

The BLS, apparently working hard for Obama’s re-election, decided that with unemployment rising they’d better give the MSM something else to talk about – certainly don’t want them talking about the massive number of people out of work.  Better to have them talk about the number of jobs being created!  So, they just made up some numbers to make it look like the number of jobs went up.  From Zero Hedge:

Happy (about) the headline establishment survey print of 133,245 which says that the US “added” 163,000 jobs in July from 133,082 last month? Consider this: the number was based on a non seasonally adjusted July number of 132,868. This was a 1.248 million drop from the June print. So how did the smoothing work out to make a real plunge into an “adjusted” rise? Simple: the BLS “added” 377K jobs for seasonal purposes. This was the largest seasonal addition … for a July NFP print in the past decade…But wait, there’s more: the Birth Death adjustment, which adds to the NSA Print to get to the final number, was +52k. How does this compare to July 2011? It is about 1000% higher: the last B/D adjustment was a tiny +5K! In other words, of the 163,000 jobs “added”, 429,000 was based on purely statistical fudging.

I’m a little bit surprised at this much brass on the part of the Bureau of Labor Statistics – all economic indicators in July were lousy:  there wasn’t the slightest indicator that we were actually adding jobs…and here they come up, straight faced, and try to tell us not only that the economy created jobs, but created them faster than in June, when things were better than in July.  But putting out that number – even with 16 million people out of work – allows Obama and his Democrats to keep up the meme of “jobs are being created” thanks to the stimulus.  That meme – which is the only positive thing Obama has – would be permanently finished if we had a jobs print in negative territory.  Now we know:  until after November 6th, no matter what is really happening, the BLS will not put out a negative number…even if actual jobs losses will be in the 200,000 range, they’ll just fudge it until they get a positive number.

Fine and dandy – we know that Obama’s hope for re-election revolves around lying about himself and lying about Romney.  The jobs report is the “lie about Obama” part, the latest fracas over Romney’s tax returns (set aloft by Harry Reid, who also seems to have some unanswered questions about his own past which have been floated just as credibly as the tax charge) is the “lie about Romney” part of it.  We’ll see if it works – the idea is to turn off independents, depress Republicans and fire up Democrats as Obama’s only hope is a narrow win in a low-turnout race which allows him to cobble together 270 electoral votes.  If it works, then it works – but it only works if Obama can fool the people.  He managed it in 2008; I don’t think he’ll be able to do it in 2012 (much harder to fool people by scaring them than to fool them by making nice).

In the end, I expect that reality will defeat Obama – he and his minions can lie all they want but the people know what they are going through.  I don’t know about you out there – maybe you’re all rich – but as for me it has been quite a lot of cutting back.  My shirts, for instance, are bought at Goodwill these days…and I’ve found in conversation that I’m not remotely alone among my friends determined to bargain shop or do without.  Things are rough; people fear the future; and for me and mine we’re actually far better off than many millions of people who were suckered by Obama in 2008 and now know the reality.  After all the hype and lies I think that on November 6th the real people of the United States who have been living in the Obama Recession will show up to vote – and we’ll have a new President on January 20th.

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22 thoughts on “Unemployment at 8.3%

  1. bozo August 3, 2012 / 11:01 am

    Dang. If only Obozo would hire half a million more border patrol agents like Republicans want instead of focusing so hard on private sector job growth, we’d be on easy street.

    Hey, BTW, I donate shirts to Goodwill all the time. Underwear, too. Wouldn’t that just be the freakiest thing ever if you were wearing my stuff right now?

    • Mark Edward Noonan August 3, 2012 / 12:42 pm

      Bozo – would be; but as it turns out, plenty of stores donate to Goodwill, as well. I pick up new shirts – original store tags still on them – for $1 to $4. The point: things are rough…also, I’m just done with consumerism. I won’t run out and buy the latest bit of I-Crap just because someone says its the newest, coolest thing. Millions more are like that…the days of easy money are over for the United States.

  2. GMB August 3, 2012 / 11:01 am

    The economy is fine. Nothing to see here. Move along wingnuts.
    😛

  3. GMB August 3, 2012 / 11:05 am

    Ah yes if only if. The big if. If only we could back to this time.

  4. Majordomo Pain August 3, 2012 / 11:23 am

    Mr Noonan you do realize the methodology of accounting for birth/deaths of employing concerns has not been altered since April 2003?

    • tiredoflibbs August 3, 2012 / 12:27 pm

      Since the accounting hasn’t changed, bubblehead, and the numbers are worse than Bush’s, what does that tell you?

      With everything being equal (other than more people have fallen out of the labor force and are not counted), it is accurate to say that obAMATEUR has a worse record than Bush. All the while, proggies have dismissed Bush’s record and stated that the jobs created were not real jobs, but obAMATEUR’s record is stellar and more successful.

      Try again drone, Forker.

      • Majordomo Pain August 3, 2012 / 12:41 pm

        One has to admit that may of the jobs that existed during the “Bush boom” were a result of the bloat in both the housing and financial sector. With the collapse of the housing bubble that bloat was lost. On rote unemployment there is a simple test. At the beginning of the Bush administration unemployment stood at 4.2%; when it ended it stood at 7.8%, an increase of 3.6 points. When President Obama took office the rate of unemployment was 8.3% for his first full month in office and now stands at the same level.

      • tiredoflibbs August 3, 2012 / 3:17 pm

        “When President Obama took office the rate of unemployment was 8.3% for his first full month in office and now stands at the same level.”

        Exactly, so his massive spending to bring the unemplyment rate to the projected 5.6%, FAILED. His green energy job creation FAILED.

        BTW, the financial and housing bursting was a creation and result of proggy interference in mortgage and lending laws. Proggy policies created the crisis to begin with, as proven here several times. This was not a result of Bush, but the FAILED RECOVERY BY OBAMATEUR IS HIS FAULT ALONE!

        Try again forker drone.

    • Mark Edward Noonan August 3, 2012 / 12:43 pm

      Except for that 1,000% change from the last adjustment, yeah, you have a point…

      • Majordomo Pain August 3, 2012 / 12:47 pm

        Those sorts to swings in birth/death Mr Noonan are not based on anything in the statistics that can be modified. They are generated from the samples incoming on a monthly basis.

      • Mark Edward Noonan August 3, 2012 / 1:08 pm

        Major,

        The Birth/Death model is, I believe, cracked. The trouble is that no one can really tell because the BLS won’t tell us precisely how they calculate the B/D – but a 1,000% change is so far off the graph that I’m highly doubtful they’re giving us a valid number. The household survey showed that 195,000 jobs were lost in July while the establishment survey says we gained 163,000. The establishment survey for June was revised downwards to +64,000 from an initial print of +80,000. If anything, economic indicators worsened in July from June and yet we’re supposed to believe this worsening economy produced nearly 100,000 more jobs than it did in June. If you believe that then if you’ll send me $500 I’ll send you a map to the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.

        There are several things to consider when thinking about what is happening and what effect it will have on November 6th:

        Even taking BLS data at face value, we’ve only recovered 48% of the jobs lost in the recession and that doesn’t take in to consideration the rise in population over the past four years. Essentially, in return for trillions in new debt we’ve only gotten 1/3 the way back to par. The only reason the official unemployment rate is not above 11% is because the BLS have continually reduced the labor force – smaller labor force, lower unemployment. But the fact of the matter is that a gigantic number of people are out of work. These people won’t care that Obama says 4 million jobs have been created – they’ll only care about the fact that they are not working. That is what will drive things on November 6th – and if you think this is just right wing thinking, then think again: as much a liberal as Carville has warned Obama and the Democrats that they’re attempts to talk people in to thinking things are great are falling flat.

    • Count d'Haricots August 3, 2012 / 12:59 pm

      Since 2003? Bullshit!

      In 2011 the BLS began making quarterly adjustments listing them simultaneous with “seasonal” adjustments (April 1, 2011 to be exact).

      This is bad methodology since previous reports had them annually adjusting effectively over-counting. If it’s annual there is no seasonal adjustment. The BLS has been called on this by numerous statisticians.

      • Mark Edward Noonan August 3, 2012 / 1:12 pm

        After the election – no matter who wins – the adjustments will be staggering. Anyone who wants to think that Obama wouldn’t order the BLS to fudge the numbers to help his re-election simply hasn’t been paying attention to Obama: everything which is done by government is impounded to serve the Obama re-election effort. We really haven’t seen anything this politically disgusting since Woodrow Wilson tried to use our involvement in the First World War to secure the victory of Democrats in the 1918 mid-terms.

      • Count d'Haricots August 3, 2012 / 1:28 pm

        I donno; Nixon’s attempt to use the CIA to thwart an FBI investigation of political shenanigans was pretty disgusting.

      • Majordomo Pain August 3, 2012 / 1:43 pm

        And once again mark you are wrong. there will be no “staggering” adjustments anym ore than there were to the data from the Bush administration. BLS employment and unemployment figures are too important to cheat with for petty political reasons.

      • Mark Edward Noonan August 3, 2012 / 1:47 pm

        Major,

        There have already been staggering adjustments – ever since about the time of the first “Summer of Recovery” in 2010. You don’t seem to recognize the level of rank dishonesty in the Obama Administration. Sure, all Administrations have their dishonest people (some, like the Clinton and Nixon Administrations, make an art out of it) but there is something extra in Obama…there is a determination to just flat out lie at all times and in all circumstances…a determination that the truth will hurt and thus just lie, lie and then lie some more. All in the service of getting Obama re-elected. To what purpose? To hold on to power. Why do that? I doubt they even know, themselves…

      • Count d'Haricots August 3, 2012 / 1:57 pm

        simply a change in reporting not a change in the actual figures or the models used to arrive at those figures.

        That is truly a foolish thing to write; first there are no “actual” figures, it’s an extrapolation. Next, because you’re stupid, I’ll repeat it — there is no seasonal adjustment with an annual figure, there are seasonal adjustments in quarterly figures. Seasonal adjusted death is nearly as moronic as your defense of this methodology.

      • neocon1 August 3, 2012 / 3:10 pm

        Count

        . Next, because you’re stupid, I’ll repeat it —

        stupid and thinks she is dead and in hell ( killed in the US civil war) ROTFLMAO……

      • Amazona August 3, 2012 / 4:37 pm

        “I donno; Nixon’s attempt to use the CIA to thwart an FBI investigation of political shenanigans was pretty disgusting.”

        Disgusting, yes, but at least it didn’t contribute to the erosion of national security and the deaths of thousands, like the use of White House power to set up a “wall” separating all intelligence services and prohibiting them from sharing information, to thwart investigations into illegal foreign campaign contributions to Bill Clinton.

  5. tiredoflibbs August 3, 2012 / 10:05 pm

    Ok, proggy drones you have nothing to fear. The unemployment rate is actually 8.254% and not 8.3%!!!!

    Put’s your mind at ease doesn’t it?

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