Open Thread

So, had my first work from home day.

Plus: when I suddenly wanted a hot dog, I went and got one. Getting up half an hour later and immediately being home after work.

Minus: Dull.

Still don’t know anyone who has caught Coronavirus – and I’ve lots of friends and family in hot zones. Also rather surprised at how relatively lightly we’ve got off in Las Vegas. It can change, of course, but we went into lockdown 9 days ago and we’re at 350 cases and 10 deaths so far. The number of Chinese and other foreigners who come through this town is very large, so I really expected us to be hammered by it. I mean, look at New York! But, also, we didn’t have our leaders and health people telling us to get out there and hug a Chinese because Orange Man Bad. That might be the difference.

There is a theory that warm weather will abate the virus – we’ll find out in about a week as we’re supposed to get up into the 80’s with dry weather.

The stimulus bill is hot garbage, for the most part and they will have to re-work it in the near future. Be that as it may, it will at least provide some help for those dislocated by the virus. Seems there’s a bi-partisan consensus that every corporation and special interest group out there should be showered with cash but regular folks just aren’t smart enough to handle it.

Some Democrat rumblings about scratching Biden and putting Cuomo on the ticket. This is not an indication of a party which likes its chances in November. I’m thinking that absent a real virus meltdown in the USA (increasingly unlikely at this point), Trump will win rather easily, and likely get the House back into the bargain. Huge amount of time until election day, but Trump has done well and the Democrats got nothing.

The biggest problem with the virus is that we don’t know what its all about – the Chinese data has to be discarded as entirely untrustworthy. Italy and Spain are terrifying, but there seems to be local reasons for how bad it is there. Other places are not bad at all. Until we know the real rate of infection and mortality, we’re rather stumbling in the dark. And this is why it is wise to socially distance…but as we get better numbers and learn what the real threat it, it will be time to start reopening the economy.

40 thoughts on “Open Thread

  1. Cluster March 27, 2020 / 8:31 am

    Well today ends the week where the our very own NIH predicted a minimum of 108,000 covid cases in the US and I will cut them some slack because compared to other wildly inaccurate predictions, they were somewhat close. According to worldometers 85,749 cases are reported in the US, however if you consult the CDC that number is around 70,000 so depends on the source.

    The other prediction pushed put yesterday by the University of Washington was:

    March 26 (Reuters) – The coronavirus pandemic could kill more than 81,000 people in the United States in the next four months and may not subside until June, according to a data analysis done by University of Washington School of Medicine.

    675 Americans need to die everyday starting yesterday to meet that number. Sounds reasonable, right? Dr. Birx pointed out the irresponsible behavior of the media yesterday at the press conference and I thought she did a good job. The way in which the media is covering this story is completely shameful and they need to be held accountable.

    After the disgraceful political partisan display of Pelosi and Schumer over the last couple of days and the accelerating dementia of Joe Biden, I don’t think Democrats have any idea of just how badly they are going to lose. Pelosi, AOC, Omar, and Tlaib have relegated the Democrat party to that of an extreme fringe group. They really thought political correctness and identity politics was their ticket to power never once thinking that the majority of Americans are not nearly as racist and stupid as they are.

    • Retired Spook March 27, 2020 / 12:12 pm

      What’s going to be interesting to see is if the huge spike of COVID-19 cases in NYC translates to similar spikes in other large metro areas. As of three days ago the number of cases in NYC were reported doubling every 3 days. At that rate about half the people in NYC would be infected at the end of 30 days with everyone in NYC infected one day later. Even with a 1% mortality rate, that’s 100,000 dead in NYC by the end of April.

      That said, let’s look at the facts: On Tuesday, March 24th NYC reported 14,776 cases. Today NYC is reporting 23,112 cases, so about 6,440 short of doubling in 3 days. Still a hefty increase, but exaggerated as it seems just about everything the media reports on this virus. I think we’ll know in a couple weeks just how exaggerated.

      By comparison, the Indiana county in which I live just reported its first case yesterday.

      • Cluster March 27, 2020 / 12:43 pm

        According to the CDC there are 401 cases in AZ. No deaths and the entire State is shut down. Except for me. Still working lol

      • Amazona March 27, 2020 / 5:35 pm

        I think that, given the population density in NYC we could expect more transmission of the virus. What is important, I think, is the severity of the disease once it is contracted.

      • Amazona March 28, 2020 / 1:39 pm

        Just wondering—when I read that the NYC hospitals are “overwhelmed” with COVID-19 patients in fairly serious condition, I have to wonder how much of that is due to New Yorkers being generally less fit, less healthy and spending their lives in an environment of toxic fumes. It seems obvious that a population with already-compromised immune systems and weakened lungs is going to get sicker faster than a population living in a relatively toxin-free environment and eating better.

        Most of us can’t relate to living in a culture where takeout is so prevalent, where it is so common to pick up prepared food to take home to eat. At least in Colorado and Wyoming it is most common to eat fairly well balanced meals of home-prepared food including fresh vegetables and fruits, and when we open a window we usually get fresh air, not exhalations of thousands of people and the output of engines, the rubber dust from tires, etc. Most of us don’t live in crowded conditions surrounded by vehicle exhaust and traveling in underground tunnels breathing recycled air.

        Factor that in with the social congestion of the city and you have a recipe for rapid transmission of pathogens combined with less ability to reject them. Or so it seems to me.

  2. Cluster March 27, 2020 / 9:04 am

    So just another review of the numbers – 85,755 cases in the US of which 83,000 have mild symptoms and just 2,100 are in critical condition yet the media is saying that we need 40,000 ventilators.

    Here’s what happened on CNN yesterday in an interview with Peter Navarro:

    Navarro then requested Keilar give him an opportunity to respond, but Keilar accused Navarro and the administration of not doing enough to supply the country with a million ventilators and asked him what he was doing about the shortfall.

    Thank God CNN is demanding one million ventilators to accommodate 2,100 critical patients. They really do go above and beyond. What would we do without the geniuses in the media??

  3. Cluster March 28, 2020 / 9:24 am

    Alright, WTF am I missing?? I’ll admit that I am not the sharpest tool in the shed so someone needs to shed some light on this for me. The numbers of our current Covid pandemic are still very low compared to even seasonal flu disorders. Here are the CDC’s mortality numbers from 2017:

    Heart disease: 647,457
    Cancer: 599,108
    Accidents (unintentional injuries): 169,936
    Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 160,201
    Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 146,383
    Alzheimer’s disease: 121,404
    Diabetes: 83,564
    Influenza and Pneumonia: 55,672

    55,000 Americans died from the flu in 2017 and no one even noticed. Add in the lower respiratory diseases and over 200,000 Americans died but 1,700 deaths from a flu strain over 2 months in 2020 now has the entire country shut down.

    What am I missing??

    • Retired Spook March 28, 2020 / 10:42 am

      I hate to state the obvious, but I think the component you’re missing is the political agenda part.

      • Cluster March 28, 2020 / 12:06 pm

        SADLY I think you’re right. The level of fear peddling and virtue signaling in the media is off the charts.

      • Retired Spook March 28, 2020 / 12:11 pm

        I do think that some, including the President, are beginning to realize that the cure could be worse than the disease, and that the economy could suffer irreparable damage if they don’t begin to open it back up.

      • Amazona March 28, 2020 / 1:20 pm

        I think the president has known this all along. He is, first and foremost, a businessman, and I can’t believe he has been unaware of the long term effects of this slowdown.

        When we talk about the money “lost” in the stock market plunge, I think we have to remember a couple of things. One is that it dropped to very near the point where it was when Trump took office, and one is that people only lost money if they sold on the downturn. Riding it out will mitigate some of that “loss” and people who buy in at the bottom will profit from it.

        So…..why can we tolerate/survive such a precipitous plunge in value? Only because of the strength of the economy going into the pandemic. I think it’s time to point out to the public that if it were not for the economic prowess of the president and the resulting increase in stock values, we would really be in trouble. As it is, we are just back to approximately where we were at the end of 8 years of Obama/Biden. I think that is a valuable and powerful observation, and helps put the stock market fluctuations in perspective. Imagine where we would be, economically, if this happened in an Obama/Biden economy. We would be bottomed out.

        The push for off-label use of hydroxychloroquine is growing, with more and more doctors publicly pointing out that it has been used safely for decades, much of that off-label, and that it is very very common to use drugs for things not approved by the FDA. I think one example is aspirin. While it might now be labeled as a blood thinner, it was always for reducing pain and fever, but also used as a supplement for heart health. And another thing about aspirin—if you take a large dose it can kill you.

        So I think the manufactured hysteria about off-label use of hydroxychloroquine is going to fade quickly. It came about as a reaction to Trump’s discussion of it as “a game changer”, a knee-jerk opposition to anything he says and an effort to say “Look how stupid Trump is, but we’re not buying it”. A single threatened lawsuit against any of those stupid governors ought to open up those states to using it. Once we know we can often prevent COVID-19 by taking hydroxychloroquine, while the combination of hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin addresses existing illness and the pulmonary problems associated with COVID-19, we will be well on our way to restarting the economic engine that isn’t totally stalled, just idling for a while.

        I think it is important to realize that the objections to using these drugs is based solely on the concern that they will make the disease avoidable and/or treatable while proving Trump to be right as well as acting in the best interests of the people. These objectors would rather see the economy tank irreversibly and tens of thousands of people die, after living in paralyzing fear, if it would advance their agendas of massively expanding federal scope and power while getting rid of Trump. An example is the hyped up HuffPo headline Trump Touts ‘Game-Changing’ Drug Cocktail For Coronavirus Linked To Fatal Arrhythmia I found on Yahoo. (There’s a double whammy for you—HuffPo and Yahoo.) But even there, in all the florid fretting about the “possibility of fatal arrhythmia” the conclusions are not to refuse to use the drug, or drugs together, but to do so only on the advice and under the supervision of a doctor.

        To which normal people say “Well, DUH!”

        Ever listen to the list of possible side effects of those drugs hyped on TV these days?

    • casper3031 March 28, 2020 / 5:31 pm

      What you are doing is comparing apples to oranges. You are comparing deaths in a year to deaths in the last month and a half. We don’t want to wait until the end of the year to find out how many people will die from this. Since this is a new disease, no one has any kind of immunity to it. It is also far more lethal than the seasonal flu and spreads a lot faster. The biggest threat is that it will overwhelm our health care system to the point that people with other diseases or accident victims die because of medical care. This isn’t about politics. It’s about dealing with a deadly virus.

      • Amazona March 28, 2020 / 9:14 pm

        Cappy, thank you for the recap of the Hysteric Agenda Media messaging.

        While you say no one has any immunity to it, still many many people have it or have had it and show no symptoms, or very mild and fleeting symptoms. These people then have immunity.

        Some doctors are taking blood plasma from recovered patients and introducing it into seriously ill patients, and the introduction of the antigens seems to have a dramatic effect on the illness. It also appears that the mortality rate is based on the weakening of already compromised systems which then develop secondary symptoms such as lung infections, pneumonia, cardiac issues, etc. not on the virus itself.

        Hydroxychloroquine seems to dramatically reduce, sometimes eliminate, the virus load within three days, which is another way of saying it rapidly not only helps the patient be less ill but also makes him less contagious to others. Azithromycin addresses existing illness and the pulmonary problems associated with COVID-19, So it appears that we already have several approaches to limiting the impact of the disease on those who get it. And don’t forget, Hydroxychloroquine has already been routinely used as a prophylactic by people planning to travel in regions known to have malaria, effectively protecting against getting that disease, and many medical personnel are using it to try to head off catching the COVID virus. At some point we should have enough numbers to tell with some degree of confidence whether or not this has been effective.

        So: (1) the disease is often so mild the person is unaware of having it, or has fleeting and minimal symptoms; (2) many have recovered fully and quickly after being treated with known, tested and accepted drugs; (3) many are hopeful that one of these drugs already used as a prophylactic for another disease will work the same way on this one; (4) the process for finding and developing a specific vaccine is being accelerated as regulations are being revised; and (5) there must be a reason why a certain element of our society is focusing on the most frightening, most negative, aspects of the situation possible, even to the point of lying to the public, publishing Fake News, trying to keep the president’s direct messaging to the nation off as many public airways as possible, and in general working AGAINST a productive approach to the problem.

        And BTW, when you examine (5) all you see is politics. It’s no coincidence that the most negative fear mongering comes from a certain specific political perspective.

      • casper3031 March 28, 2020 / 11:00 pm

        I know that most people who catch this will survive and I know that there are a number of promising treatments are being tried. I hope that we find effective treatments as soon as possible. That said, we are currently closer to the beginning of this pandemic than the end. It is going to get a lot worse before it gets better. You and I and the majority of contributors on this blog are far more likely to suffer from this than those younger. BTW, if you catch this and only have minimal symptoms you aren’t immune. You can still spread it to others, some who may not be so lucky. So just be careful and be safe.

      • Amazona March 29, 2020 / 10:47 am

        “Teacher” Casper strikes again: if you catch this and only have minimal symptoms you aren’t immune. You can still spread it to others…. Is there a Hawaiian word for “clueless”? In Casper’s old hometown of Casper, Wyoming, it was his name.

        OK, Cappy, try to follow along. If a person has the virus he or she is shedding that virus even if he or she is asymptomatic. He or she will shed that virus as long as the viral load remains. Speculation is that this is about two weeks, or thereabouts. However, once the person has recovered and the virus is no longer in his or her body—had the virus— he or she will have immunity to a repeated infection. And NO, Cappy, he or she will no longer be contagious. Your odd misunderstanding of science would have a nation of zombie-like creatures who have recovered from the virus still going around and infecting people with it.

        We have years of experience with your Bidenesque muddling of facts so it is no surprise that you don’t understand what “immune” means or how one achieves immunity.

        Let’s listen to someone who actually knows what she is doing—that is, the polar opposite of Casper: I will quote a long comment rather than trust Casper to go to a link. (emphasis mine)

        DR. DEBORAH BRIX: I’m sure you have seen the recent report out of the U.K. about them adjusting completely their needs. This is really quite important. If you remember, that was the report that says there would be 500,000 deaths in the U.K. and 2.2 million deaths in the United States. They’ve adjusted that number in the U.K. to 20,000. Half a million to 20,000. We are looking at that in great detail to understand that adjustment.

        I’m going to say something that is a little bit complicated but do it in a way we can understand it together. In the model, either you have to have a large group of people who are asymptomatic, who never presented for any test to have the kind of numbers predicted. To get to 60 million people infected, you have to have a large group of asymptomatics. We have not seen an attack rate over 1 in 1,000. So either we are measuring the iceberg and underneath it, are a large group of people. So we are working hard to get the antibody test and figure out who these people are and do they exist. Or we have the transmission completely wrong.

        So these are the things we are looking at, because the predictions of the model don’t match the reality on the ground in China, South Korea or Italy. We are five times the size of Italy. If we were Italy and did all those divisions, Italy should have close to 400,000 deaths. They are not close to achieving that.

        Models are models. We are — there is enough data of the real experience with the coronavirus on the ground to really make these predictions much more sound. So when people start talking about 20% of a population getting infected, it’s very scary, but we don’t have data that matches that based on our experience.

        And the situation about ventilators. We are reassured in meeting with our colleagues in New York that there are still I.C.U. Beds remaining and still significant — over 1,000 or 2,000 ventilators that have not been utilized.

        Please for the reassurance of people around the world, to wake up this morning and look at people talking about creating DNR situations, Do Not Resuscitate situations for patients, there is no situation in the United States right now that warrants that kind of discussion. You can be thinking about it in the hospital. Certainly, hospitals talk about this on a daily basis, but to say that to the American people and make the implication that when they need a hospital bed it’s not going to be there or a ventilator, it’s not going to be there, we don’t have evidence of that.

        It’s our job collectively to assure the American people, it’s our job to make sure that doesn’t happen. You can see the cases are concentrated in highly urban areas and there are other parts of the states that have lots of ventilators and other parts of New York state that don’t have any infected. We can meet the needs by being responsive.

        There is no model right now — no reality on the ground where we can see that 60% to 70% of Americans are going to get infected in the next eight to 12 weeks. I want to be clear about that. We are adapting to the reality on the ground and looking at the models of how they can inform but learning from South Korea and Italy and from Spain and I know you will look up my numbers.

        I’m thinking those who are so easily panicked by the hysterical models are the same who freaked out about the “climate change” models and are just ignoring the fact that all those cities are still above water. A model is a model, and wholly dependent on the axiom GIGO. And we’re still stuck with mindless hysterics who are addicted to G, whether it is going in or coming out.

      • Cluster March 29, 2020 / 9:12 am

        Cap, as of yesterday there were 86 confirmed cases in Hawaii, out of population of about 1.4 million. I think you’re going to be ok.

  4. Cluster March 28, 2020 / 3:26 pm

    Just a note, today we hit the additional 70,000 cases as predicted by the NIH over a week ago so that projection was sound which I am happy to report because there is too much sensationalizing going on. It’s important to note that of the 116,000 active cases only 2,600 are in serious condition. The vast majority of people who contract covid have mild symptoms.

    Ever listen to the list of possible side effects of those drugs hyped on TV these days?

    You may be paralyzed from the waist down but you’ll have clear skin.

    • Amazona March 28, 2020 / 8:51 pm

      A doctor once gave me samples he had gotten from a drug rep to save me money and they included all the warnings and info on possible side effects. The one I remember was the possibility of developing a black hairy tongue.

      I didn’t, but never forgot the warning. My favorite comment about the advertised drugs is “do not take if allergic to the ingredients in this drug”. What a world we live in, where people have to be reminded not to take stuff they know will make them sick.

  5. Cluster March 28, 2020 / 3:50 pm

    Just another thought. This virus should make the need for federalism crystal clear. States need more authority. What is a crisis in New York is an after thought in AZ and we should not be governed the same or subjected to the same restrictions. A centralized authority for 350 million people DOES NOT WORK

  6. Amazona March 28, 2020 / 9:32 pm

    on our local neighborhood website:

    Heard a Dr on TV saying in this time of Coronavirus staying at home we should focus on inner peace. To achieve this we should always finish things we start and we all could use more calm in our lives. I looked through my house to find things i’d started and hadn’t finished, so I finished off a bottle of Merlot, a bottle of Chardonnay, a bodle of Baileys, a butle of wum, tha mainder of Valiumun srciptuns, an a box a chocletz. Yu haf no idr how feckin fablus I feel rite now. Sned this to all who need inner piss. An telum u luvum. And two hash yer wands, stafe day avrybobby!!!

    • Retired Spook March 28, 2020 / 10:14 pm


      BTW, as the headline says: a game changer.

      The Food and Drug Administration has issued an Emergency Use Authorization to medical device giant Abbott Labs on Friday for a five-minute coronavirus test that could be arriving to the nation’s urgent care clinics as early as next week.

      In a press release, Abbott Labs characterized the device as “the fastest available molecular point-of-care test for the detection of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19).” The Illinois-based manufacturer also said it expects the equipment to deliver up to 50,000 tests per day and will be ramping up manufacturing in the coming weeks, according to USA Today.

    • Cluster March 29, 2020 / 9:32 am

      Any chance I can get some of that valium … LOL

  7. Cluster March 29, 2020 / 9:31 am

    The Governor of Montana has issued a stay at home order which isn’t going over real well with the ranchers according to my sister. Of course when your closest neighbor is a mile away social distancing becomes kind of a joke and again is just more reason why MT should not be governed like NY.

    • Amazona March 29, 2020 / 11:01 am

      I am going back and forth between my properties in Colorado and Wyoming without interference, but if the Peoples’ Republic of Colorado under the rule of Jared Polis decides on a complete lockdown I will stay in Wyoming, where more sanity reigns. There are four people within five miles of my place there, both on the road in from the highway, and social distancing is kind of a description of the way we live. I can get my Colorado horses fed and will just hunker down with my Wyoming horses and ride this out. Right now I am just going from one house to another, not stopping along the way to pick up or shed the virus, so I am not posing a danger to anyone including myself.

      (Last night on Jesse Waters a NY doctor said in his opinion the virus is nearly always spread by touching something carrying the virus and then touching the face—that aside from the rare transmission from the air due to a cough or sneeze it almost always enters the body through the eyes, nose or mouth and that from being transmitted from the hands.)

  8. Cluster March 29, 2020 / 9:50 am

    Good morning everyone and here is our morning perspective …. considering today’s hysteria it’s amazing we all survived 2009 but of course Obama was President so …..

    On November 12, 2009 CDC provided the first set of estimates on the numbers of 2009 H1N1 cases and related hospitalizations and deaths in the United States between April and October 17, 2009.

    Estimates from April – October 17, 2009:

    CDC estimated that between 14 million and 34 million cases of 2009 H1N1 occurred between April and October 17, 2009. The mid-level in this range was about 22 million people infected with 2009 H1N1.
    CDC estimated that between about 63,000 and 153,000 2009 H1N1-related hospitalizations occurred between April and October 17, 2009. The mid-level in this range was about 98,000 H1N1-related hospitalizations.
    CDC estimated that between about 2,500 and 6,000 2009 H1N1-related deaths occurred between April and October 17, 2009. The mid-level in this range was about 3,900 2009 H1N1-related deaths.

  9. Amazona March 29, 2020 / 11:09 am

    Actor Idris Elba, who was recently diagnosed with COVID-19, told his social media followers that the novel coronavirus was nature’s way of “reacting to the human race” and getting revenge for climate change

    Ah, yes—if it weren’t for Leftist idiots, we’d hardly have any idiots at all. Evidently the next time I am happily basking in the beauty of Nature I need to remind myself she is really a vengeful bitch and I better watch out.

    • Cluster March 29, 2020 / 12:02 pm

      the next time I am happily basking in the beauty of Nature I need to remind myself she is really a vengeful bitch and I better watch out.


  10. Amazona March 29, 2020 / 11:19 am

    Oh, dear. Just what we need-more to worry about. In this case, a new crop of military officers so fragile and delicate their “morale” suffers from being asked to not socialize for a couple of weeks.

    Out of all five service academies, West Point, Annapolis, Coast Guard, Merchant Marine, and Air Force Academy, Air Force Academy seniors are the only students still on campus.

    Morale among seniors also appears to be at an all-time low and restriction seems to be taking a toll on their mental health, according to those familiar with the situation.

    taking a toll on their mental health

    Clearly these future officers need to be assigned desk duty in fun metro areas where they are never asked to be uncomfortable or make any kind or degree of sacrifice.

    On the other hand, there seems to be something else going on at the Academy that probably has more to do with low morale than being quarantined for a while. Two cadets have committed suicide there recently. I don’t know about the other academies but the Air Force Academy has a history of behaviors ranging from cheating scandals to extremely abusive hazing and harassment.

    • Cluster March 29, 2020 / 2:06 pm

      We have really become a weak and easily frightened society. Not a good look

      • Amazona March 29, 2020 / 4:44 pm

        We have really become a weak and easily frightened society. Of course we have, and it is not by accident. A weak, easily frightened population is an easily led population that is pre-selected to prefer the illusion of safety and protection provided by a massively powerful Central Authority.

  11. Amazona March 29, 2020 / 11:47 am

    Here is a different perspective on the concept of just going ahead and using a safe and tested drug or drug combination to treat a disease for which it has not been tested. Imagine this situation for yourself or a loved one, and consider whether or not it was a wise decision to use the drugs.

    On March 18th, I had a sudden onset of severe respiratory and cardiac issues. I immediately went to the hospital and they did a COVID-19 test. Despite my test being marked as a priority, I did not receive the test results until the evening of March 22nd. While waiting for the test results in the hospital, my breathing continued to worsen as treatment was received. Without having the COVID-19 test results, the wonderful and hard-working doctors basically have their hands tied as certain medications (i.e. steroids, etc.) can potentially make COVID-19 worse. On the morning of March 21st, I was not doing well and it was a major struggle to breathe. Feeling like I was slowly drowning, I honestly believed I would not live to see midnight. The x-ray that morning also showed my condition was worsening, including some collapsing in the lungs. Luckily, the infectious disease physicians decided to try a non-approved, experimental combination (Hydroxychloroquine and Azithromycin). This is the same treatment President Donald Trump recently mentioned at a press conference and continues to be attacked for. After my first dose, I had a major improvement. My gasping for air stopped, and I was in tears of happiness due to having hope restored. I finally felt I would beat COVID-19 and it was no longer beating me. On March 22nd, I remained about the same. However, March 23rd brought a significant improvement. I continued to recover and was miraculously able to go home on March 24th to continue the treatment.

    From feeling, on March 21, that he would not live till midnight to nearly immediate relief (able to breathe) after the first dose of the medicines to “significant improvement” two days later to being dismissed from the hospital two days after that “to continue treatment”.

    • Amazona March 29, 2020 / 5:14 pm

      (4) Given the increased acceptance here in the states not one, but as many as seven different pharmaceutical companies have agreed to mass produce as much as 250 million doses by mid-April. Given Dr. Raoult’s guidance in both of his studies this would give the globe enough inventory to cure 46,000,000 cases. Presently we have not yet hit one million cases worldwide. Notably Bayer, Novartis and Teva Pharm stepped up, pledging to donate several million doses right out of the shoot (sic). (That’s “out of the CHUTE, guys. Homonyms. Get a book.)

      (5) Doctors began prescribing off-label use and in doing so are replicating the clinical results in remarkable fashion. One doctor in Monroe, New York has treated in excess of 700 patients. As of this writing he’s lost zero patients to death, zero to intubation, and only two to hospitalization. Another doctor in New York City has treated in excess of 100 patients with zero deaths.

      So it looks like we might have 250 million doses within two weeks, enough to treat (and hopefully cure) 46 million cases. So at that point, while another 250 million doses are in the pipeline we could treat 46 million cases, or ignore the asymptomatic cases and save the drugs for those who are really sick. And, remember, that 250 million doses is just the first batch. It’s not as if they are going to stop production at that point.

      If I read the odd wording of point (5) correctly one doctor has treated more than 700 patients with the drug, had only two hospitalized and none requiring intubation, and none dying. I like those odds.

      You can expect to see some clinical findings begin to trickle in on Monday through the end of this coming week.

      The clinical results showed the patient going from symptomatic to negative testing on average in 5-6 days. Tuesday will mark one week since the trials began. So watch the “recovery” numbers in New York closely, as there may be a bit of a pop.

  12. Cluster March 29, 2020 / 2:05 pm


    Dr. Anthony Fauci, the government’s top expert on infectious diseases, predicted Sunday that the United States will end up with “millions” of cases of coronavirus and up to 200,000 deaths by the time the pandemic ends, though he cautioned that any projection of mortality statistics could “easily” end up being wrong.

    I don’t even know what to say anymore

    • Retired Spook March 29, 2020 / 4:12 pm

      Well, let’s pray that he’s not only wrong but egregiously wrong.

      • Amazona March 29, 2020 / 4:40 pm

        Well, he left himself a lot of wiggle room. “Up to” 200,000 deaths has a lot of room in it, like somewhere between 2500 and 200,000, and he admits “that any projection of mortality statistics could “easily” end up being wrong.”.

        So there is nothing to do but sit back and see what happens. If we ramp up production of hydroxychloroquine so there are 300,000,000 doses that ought to take a pretty big chunk out of that projection. Theoretically it would be better used as a treatment than a prophylactic, as if it is used to treat the virus that means the patient can also develop antibodies and not be susceptible to it in the future.

        So a massive nationwide testing process, prescribing the drug to all who test positive and having all members of that family or social group that did not test positive come back in a week for retesting and prescription if needed would probably result in far fewer deaths than any prediction. Catch it early, slam it hard, and buy time till a vaccine is developed.

        If I had my druthers I would be tested, find out I have it though I don’t feel sick, take the drug to knock down the viral load, quarantine myself for the requisite period and go on with my life, full of nice antibodies to protect me in the future.

  13. casper3031 March 30, 2020 / 12:35 am

    Wow. Good to see it’s finally sinking in. This is serious. I hope that hydroxychloroquine is the wonder drug you think it will be. It has yet to be tried in tried in large scale clinical trials. There are a number of other treatments also being looked at. Hopefully, they will find one or more that works.That said it is spreading at an alarming rate. There will be over a million cases in the next two weeks in the United States alone. That’s not a hoax. That’s math.

    • Amazona March 30, 2020 / 9:19 am

      Thank you, Captain Obvious. Evidently all the in-depth discussion and exchange of facts and data here among us doesn’t really count until you have declared that yes, we really do get it. “Finally sinking in” = serious fact-based discourse for three months.
      Are we grateful that you approve? Couldn’t care less.

      Hint: the only people who have ever used the word “hoax” regarding the virus are mindless Leftist sheeple desperate to invent something to snarl about. SSDD.

      You must have gotten on the last nerve of everyone on every other site you have visited to feel like coming back here, where your pomposity, ignorance, snark and smugness made you persona non grata so many times over the years. “It’s math”. Oooh! Deep!

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