Author: Mark Noonan

Stockman: The End is Nigh!

Mark Noonan24 Comments

Quoting former Reagan OMB director Stockman over at Pajamas Media:

…The state-wreck ahead is a far cry from the “Great Moderation” proclaimed in 2004 by Mr. Bernanke, who predicted that prosperity would be everlasting because the Fed had tamed the business cycle and, as late as March 2007, testified that the impact of the subprime meltdown “seems likely to be contained.” Instead of moderation, what’s at hand is a Great Deformation, arising from a rogue central bank that has abetted the Wall Street casino, crucified savers on a cross of zero interest rates and fueled a global commodity bubble that erodes Main Street living standards through rising food and energy prices — a form of inflation that the Fed fecklessly disregards in calculating inflation.

These policies have brought America to an end-stage metastasis. The way out would be so radical it can’t happen. It would necessitate a sweeping divorce of the state and the market economy. It would require a renunciation of crony capitalism and its first cousin: Keynesian economics in all its forms. The state would need to get out of the business of imperial hubris, economic uplift and social insurance and shift its focus to managing and financing an effective, affordable, means-tested safety net…

Stockman notes that no one in power is going to do any of the things necessary to fix the problem – last week, I read a quote attributed to the Prime Minister of Luxemburg which went along the lines of, “we all know what needs to be done, but we don’t know how to get re-elected after we do it”.  Whether or not the PM said any such thing, it is precisely why our Ruling Class won’t make the necessary changes – because to make them means that whomever does it loses the next election, big time.  I agree with Stockman on what is wrong and why it won’t be fixed – I don’t agree in his laying a great deal of the blame for changing the budget dynamic on Reagan, mostly because Stockman still carries a grudge from waaaay back when…Reagan rejected some of Stockman’s policy ideas in the mid-80’s and Stockman hasn’t quite gotten over it, but his claim that Reagan brought us to fiscal irresponsibility is absurd given that Social Security – the first step in complete fiscal irresponsibility – came about nearly 50 years before Reagan.  That said, the basic thrust that things are collapsing and that it has been a bi-partisan effort to wreck things is completely true.

What do to?  Stockman advises to get out of stocks and bonds and in to cash – not so sure that is the way to go because our cash is already devaluing and will do more so as time goes on with Bernanke continuing to print.  Still, getting out of debt and having as much cash on hand as possible is a good idea – gold, silver and a supply of canned goods also isn’t a bad idea, either.  The main thing is to be prepared for a very rough time, and not too long in the future.  How long?  I don’t know.  No one does.  Could happen tomorrow – could hold off for five years.   Something will trigger the final collapse – our entire economic world is based upon fake money and debt and in a very real sense, the amount of debt in the world exceeds the ability of the entire world to pay for it. And the thing about debt that can’t be repaid is that it doesn’t get repaid.

I’m not at all worried or frightened about this.  We’re going to pay the piper for 80 years of sheer idiocy in government and economics.  A better and wiser people will emerge from the collapse.

UPDATE:  Stockton, CA, goes bankrupt.

UPDATE II:  Eurozone unemployment hits 12%.  Glad that we haven’t gone down their route of fake money and massive debt…oh, wait…

Happy Easter!

Mark Noonan20 Comments

He is risen, indeed:

At daybreak on the first day of the week
the women who had come from Galilee with Jesus
took the spices they had prepared
and went to the tomb.
They found the stone rolled away from the tomb;
but when they entered,
they did not find the body of the Lord Jesus.
While they were puzzling over this, behold,
two men in dazzling garments appeared to them.
They were terrified and bowed their faces to the ground.
They said to them,
“Why do you seek the living one among the dead?
He is not here, but he has been raised.
Remember what he said to you while he was still in Galilee,
that the Son of Man must be handed over to sinners
and be crucified, and rise on the third day.”
And they remembered his words.
Then they returned from the tomb
and announced all these things to the eleven
and to all the others.
The women were Mary Magdalene, Joanna, and Mary the mother of James;
the others who accompanied them also told this to the apostles,
but their story seemed like nonsense
and they did not believe them.
But Peter got up and ran to the tomb,
bent down, and saw the burial cloths alone;
then he went home amazed at what had happened. – Luke 24:1-12

Avoiding a “Morally Vacuous and Historically Ignorant” Foreign Policy

Mark Noonan45 Comments

Ran across a useful and interesting argument between the generally conservative and generally libertarian views of our foreign policy – especially as it relates to war and the use of force in general.  Here is Noah Rothman arguing against the essentially libertarian idea of non-intervention (using Syria as an example of why we should, at times, intervene), and here is the retort by Nick Gillespie forcefully arguing the libertarian viewpoint.  Both articles repay reading – but my view is that both of them got it wrong, to a certain extent.

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Campaigning Against the Consultants

Mark Noonan88 Comments

There is a strong and valid argument to be made against our political consulting class – and at CPAC, a lot was said against them.  From NRO’s The Corner:

Here at CPAC, it’s evident that in the aftermath of the devastating November election conservatives are turning not on the losing candidates — Mitt Romney, for one, was warmly received –  but on the people who ran their campaigns. With an eye to 2014 elections, some conservatives and tea partiers are pushing a new solution: Down with the consultants.

In an interview with NRO, Jenny Beth Martin, co-founder of the Tea Party Patriots, blasted the professional political class, decrying “any consultant who thinks that they can come into a state and say, ‘this is who you need to have as your representative and we’re going to make sure that person is elected.’”

“That is the antithesis of what we’ve been talking about in this whole entire movement,” she said. “We want limited government. That means we don’t want Washington, D.C., making laws that limit how we live our lives, and we sure don’t want people from Washington, D.C. — consultants — telling us who is going to represent us.”

The rage reached its height during a panel on Thursday entitled “Should We Shoot All the Consultants Now?” During the discussion, Democratic pollster Pat Caddell ranted against campaign consultants, saying, “they’re in the business in the lining of their pockets and preserving their power.”…

Which is very true, but not the whole story.  Professional campaign consultants can have a very important role to play – how to jump through the legal hoops; how to fund raise; how to get the message out through traditional and new media.  But the problem is that consultants have taken over what the campaigns say and where they say it.  They are telling the candidates to not spend time or money in some areas because they are strongly Democrat; they are telling the candidates to stay away from this or that issue because it will result in negative press.  What they don’t understand is that the reason some areas are strongly Democrat is partially because the GOP hasn’t done any campaigning in there.  What they don’t understand is that the sort of statements which might cause an MSM firestorm to erupt are precisely the sort of things which fire up the base and convince a doubting electorate that, just maybe, this candidate isn’t a tool of the Ruling Class.

My view is that last year Romney should have headed for Pennsylvania in the flush aftermath of the first debate – Obama and the Democrats were rocked on their heels and a sudden splurge in that State (as well as other blue States which elect GOP governors/senators) would have thrown them in to panic – and people in a panic make gigantic mistakes.  When gasoline prices in Los Angeles hit $5 a gallon, Romney should have done a campaign rally in front of a Los Angeles gas station.  These actions would not necessarily be with a mind towards winning California or Pennsylvania – but of firing up the base (including the base in States where we won’t win – because that generates donations and volunteers who can work in other States); of going in to their backyard and planting our flag; of showing the nation that we’re in it to win the whole ball of wax.  I ask:  if Romney had done such things, would he have gotten fewer votes?  I doubt it.  Still might have lost – but it would have been closer…and certainly a more fun, energizing and even if lost a successful campaign…because we would have sown seeds in areas where the GOP has been absent for decades.

As I said in the immediate aftermath of our loss, we have to start getting in to the blue areas – and professional campaign consultants simply will not allow that.  And so the consultants have to be shoved aside and kept to what they are good at:  fund raising, hoop jumping, etc.  The campaign, itself, has to be the product of the candidate and his more ardent supporters.  Let’s face some facts here, boys and girls:  as long as we resign California and New York to the Democrats, we’re always going to have a hard time winning the White House.  And do pay attention – Democrats have started to work on turning Texas blue.  Say it can’t be done?  Just watch them – and even if it doesn’t work, its going to force us to spend time and effort locking down part of our electoral base.  We simply must do it to them, as well.
As we head towards 2014 and 2016, all rule books must be thrown out.  Everything must be on the table – no corner of the Great Republic must be signed off to the Democrats.  Don’t play it safe – in fact, play it as dangerous as possible.  Tens of millions of people didn’t vote in 2012…lets go get them, and bury liberalism forever.

Habemus Papam Franciscum

Mark Noonan38 Comments

I am delighted with the new Pope – seems a solid, bell-ringer of a priest sort of man; someone who is determined that Catholics from highest to lowest will get down and dirty and do the work of the Lord for the least among us.  Of course, some people were surprised to find that the new Pope is, well, Catholic – saw shocked-sounding headlines pointing out that Francis is opposed to abortion and gay marriage.  Tomorrow’s shocking news:  he believes in the Trinity and that Jesus suffered, died and was buried and on the third day rose again.

Liberals can find some comfort in the fact that Francis doesn’t exactly have a love affair with capitalism – though they’ll be less pleased to find that, apparently, he condemns it as “neo-liberalism”.  But on the whole, Francis’ clear adherence to Truth is going to be a stumbling block for liberals.  So much the worse for them.

I have some hopes for the new Pope, which I won’t give word to now:  better to just see what he does and comment on it on a case by case basis.  Fortunately, the government of the Church is not my office so its not up to me to figure out how to carry out God’s will while shepherding 1.2 billion people.

Discuss this and any other issues of religious nature.

A New GOP Foreign Policy: How to Get it Wrong

Mark Noonan90 Comments

David Goldman over at Pajamas Media writes an article about how the GOP is about to get it wrong on foreign policy:

…We Republicans now find ourselves painted into a corner. The public doesn’t trust us with guns. That’s why Rand Paul has gotten his fifteen minutes of fame (and if it turns out to be more than fifteen minutes, we are in trouble). It’s satisfying at one level to watch Rand Paul beat up Obama’s nominee for CIA director, but he represents a nasty brand of isolationism.

We nonetheless have to state the obvious: The only way to prevent Syria’s living hell from spreading to Iraq and Lebanon is to neutralize the main source of instability: Iran. Republicans should rally behind Gen. James Mattis, whom Obama fired as head of Central Command. Gen. Mattis told a Senate committee March 6 that sanctions aren’t working, and that Tehran ”enriching uranium beyond any plausible peaceful purpose.” The United States should not only remove Iran’s nuclear program, but also destroy Revolutionary Guards bases and other conventional capability that the Tehran regime employs to destabilize its neighbors. And the U.S. should throw its full weight behind regime change. With Iran out of the picture, the local conflicts–horrific as they are–will remain local. I do not believe that either Egypt or Syria can be stabilized, but it is possible to limit the spread of their instability. The prospect of a prolonged Sunni-Shi’ite war in the region will be horrific past the imagining of most Americans. Secondary conflicts will erupt around it, including long-frustrated minorities like the Kurds, who have created a functioning de facto state in northern Iraq.

We Republicans have to cure ourselves of the illusion that we can engineer the happiness of other cultures with an inherent antipathy to Western-style democracy. Where the Muslim world is concerned, optimism is cowardice. And we have to persuade the American people that selective, limited military action against Iran will not draw the United States into a new land war…

Goldman gets it right in that he identifies Iran as the central problem.  He also gets it right in declaring that we have to give up all illusions and no longer seek make the Muslim world in to a pluralist, democratic civilization.  But he gets it flat wrong when he condemns Paul’s “isolationism”, and the reason he gets it wrong is in, “we have to persuade the American people that selective, limited military action against Iran will not draw the United States into a new land war…”.  In other words, we should engage in another round of limited war.  My friends, that is poison.  One thing that I’ve learned – and most especially since 9/11 – is that the one type of war Americans can’t win is a limited war.  We’re just not built for that sort of thing.  In war, Americans are an all or nothing people:  we either go all the way in, or we should stay all the way out.

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The John McCain Crazy Train

Mark Noonan6 Comments

Allahpundit rounds up some reports on McCain digging himself ever deeper in to the Ruling Class hole over Paul’s filibuster – best comment:

“Senator McCain is obviously well aware of the politics of this – he just doesn’t care,” said one McCain aide. “He’s doing what he thinks is right. Unlike many of these guys, he’s actually been involved in a few national security debates over the years. He knows that jumping on the Rand Paul black helicopters crazytrain isn’t good for our Party or our country, no matter what Twitter says.”

Just to clarify, “black helicopters crazytrain” is those people who think that we’ve built concentration camps in Montana and that blue helmeted UN troops are already here, ready to declare martial law.  Paul isn’t within a country mile of such people.  But I’ll tell you who is crazy – John McCain and all those establishment types, left and right, who think that we’re going the right thing in our War on Terror policies.

Those who have been reading this blog over the years know that I was an ardent supporter of President Bush’s policies regarding terror.  100% support of the invasion of Iraq.  Still think it was the right thing to do.  I believe that Iran is a gigantic threat and that we will have to deal with it militarily.  But for goodness sakes, what happened between 2003 and today should cause some re-assessment of the best way to go about things.  Clearly, maintaining relationships with Muslim tyrannies in the name of “anti-terror” policies is asinine.  Clearly, giving Muslims the ability to freely vote for their own government doesn’t mean they’re going to vote for a government we like.  Clearly, the Islamist radicals are more determined that ever – and ever more brutish in their treatment of non-Muslims (seriously; just google “Muslims attack church” and see how many hits you get, and how many very recent events).

The height of insanity is our decision to continue military aid to Egypt – including providing powerful F-16 aircraft – a Muslim Brotherhood regime which is the enemy of everything we hold dear.  That is insane – and anyone want to bet where McCain stands on that?  Paul is crazy for wanting a simple declaration that the President may not kill Americans on American soil without due process?  Whatever you say, McCain.

For now, whatever it is we were trying to do in the Muslim world has come a cropper.  It is time to withdraw and re-assess.  Now, there is that one in a million chance that our withdrawal will actually cool down the Islamists.  I very much doubt that.  More than likely, it will be interpreted as a sign of weakness and they will resume their attack at the earliest opportunity.  When that happens, however, we would be able to approach the whole issue un-tied to any past commitments and free to do what we wish.  To just keep going on, grinding out with what we’ve been doing and adding to it increased drone attacks doesn’t seem wisdom in my view.  To defend the President on drones simply because you want to be “tough on terrorism” is idiotic.  It is time for a change, and Rand Paul sees it; McCain doesn’t.

 

Rand Paul Filibuster Open Thread

Mark Noonan67 Comments

UPDATE:  Paul went 13 hours and laid down the marker:  everyone now knows that there are, for certain, GOPers who will bring things to a screeching halt on matters of principal.

As of this moment, he’s still at it, 8 hours going strong.  Joining in support are Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Mike Lee and even Democrat Ron Wyden.  The issue is Paul’s demand that President Obama answer – without equivocation, yes or no, please – whether or not he’d order a drone strike on an American citizen within US territory.  This is a genuine filibuster and no one can make him stop – only exhaustion, or Obama actually answering the question, brings this to an end.

This is one of the best things I’ve seen in a long time and goes a long way towards restoring faith in our legislative branch.  For too long all Administrations – but especially Obama’s – have managed to skate past oversight simply because no one took oversight duties all that seriously (and forget about it on getting almost all the MSM to find out – the are completely controlled by Obama).  Paul does take this duty seriously.  Now, will we get a straight answer from Obama?  Probably not – but the marker will be laid down that the people have a right to know what the Executive proposes to do, and Obama (and his Democrats) know that Republicans will stand tall at need.

Discuss this and all issues of constitutional government.

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Hugo Chavez Dies, Left Has a Sad

Mark Noonan59 Comments

So, Chavez is dead and his VP is blaming us for giving him cancer – but we know that is a lie because only Republicans give people cancer (though, perhaps Bush gave it to him before he left office?).  As we could expect, the useful idiots of the left wasted little time in mourning the loss of another Dear Leader:

Hugo Chavez was a leader that understood the needs of the poor. He was committed to empowering the powerless. R.I.P. Mr. President. – Rep Jose Serrano (D)

He was known for his grand overtures and bold attacks. – Bianca Jagger (she still alive?)

A good man and a friend of the USA has passed on.. Vaya Con Dios, Hugo. I hope they wear tight red dress shirts in heaven. – Colin Quinn

Hugo #Chavez has died. Commiserations to his family & the people of #Venezuela .Tragedy for Latin America & Caribbean. – Diane Abbott, MP, Shadow Public Health Minister, Great Britain

Farewell Comandante Hugo Chavez champion of the poor the oppressed everywhere. Modern day Spartacus. Rest in Peace – George Galloway

The working class people of Venezuala, Latin America and the world have today lost a fine socialist champion. RIP Hugo Chavez – Colin Fox, Scottish Socialist Party

Of course, not everyone is distressed…

In honor of Chavez, burrito warmers at Citgo rolling at half-speed – Iowahawk

Obama’s Sequester Backfire?

Mark Noonan44 Comments

So argues Dan Mitchell:

…he miscalculated in thinking that the fiscal cliff tax hike somehow meant that he had permanently neutered the GOP, and he definitely goofed when he tried to use the sequester as a weapon to bully Republicans into another tax hike.

Ignoring the President’s hyperbole about the supposed catastrophic effects of a very modest reduction in the growth of the federal budget, Republicans have held firm.

And the President has suffered a painful political and policy defeat…

I won’t go that far – but I will say that I am pleased that the House GOP wasn’t stampeded by the “sequestageddon” hype being shouted by Obama and his MSM lapdogs.  It certainly isn’t working out as Obama hoped – what he clearly hoped for is a divided GOP providing him with more tax hikes…and then a dispirited GOP to be defeated in the 2014 mid terms.  He still might get that (the GOP can always surrender later, after all), but so far, so good.

At the end of the day, Obama has done the very worst political thing a leader can do – show himself to be a nasty,  unreliable negotiating partner.  Knee to groin tactics are one thing:  they are, indeed, expected in the rough and tumble of politics.  And even a bit of goal-post moving can be part of a larger political strategy to get what you want.  But when you are knee to groin and goal post moving all the time, eventually the other side gives up on negotiating.  Obama has proven himself a terrible politician – not just now, but all through his Administration.  True, he has won some victories, but only by the application of raw, political power.  He’s failed to co-opt or divide the GOP while also failing to really give his side all that it wants.  Had he at least some times kept his word and had he allowed even a few fig leaves to cover the GOP’s failure, he would have gotten a lot more – and would continue to get a lot more for at least another year (the thing about a 2nd term President is that authority oozes away at a remorseless rate…by this time 2014 everyone will be concerned with the mid-terms and after that all politics will be the growing fight on both sides to win in 2016).

We’ll see how all this comes out but right now the debate is about cutting spending (a strong GOP point), gun control (another strong GOP point) and gay marriage (polls show GOP weakness but when it comes to votes – especially in 2014 – I think this will work to the GOP’s advantage).  The GOP mostly just has to sit tight and start working on 2014 messaging – there’s not much Obama can do and what Obama has done promises to make things progressively worse in the United States.  The chickens are coming home to roost for Obama and he’s alienated the GOP…whom he needs to help get him out of his jam.  This could get mighty entertaining.