Author: Matt Margolis

Ouch: Dem Pollsters Say Obama Should Drop out

Matt Margolis164 Comments

If you thought things were going really bad for Obama, you were right. But, apparently it’s a lot worse. Even Democratic pollsters aren’t able to hide the truth in the numbers. They see that Obama’s candidacy is in horrid shape.

President Obama should abandon his run for a second term and turn over the reins of the Democratic Party to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, two one-time Democratic pollsters wrote in Monday’s Wall Street Journal, which appeared online Sunday.

Patrick H. Caddell and Douglas E. Schoen argued that just as Harry Truman and Lyndon Johnson decided not to pursue additional runs though they could have, Obama should do the same.

“He should abandon his candidacy for re-election in favor of a clear alternative, one capable not only of saving the Democratic Party, but more important, of governing effectively and in a way that preserves the most important of the president’s accomplishments. He should step aside for the one candidate who would become, by acclamation, the nominee of the Democratic Party: Secretary of State Hillary Clinton,”Caddell and Schoen wrote.

Caddell, who worked as a pollster for President Jimmy Carter, and Schoen, who was a pollster for President Bill Clinton, argue that Obama will inevitably have to run a negative campaign in order to win reelection, the negative consequences of which will make it difficult for him to govern effectively.

See you next November, Barry!

Newt Leads In New Poll

Matt Margolis293 Comments

As much as I’d like to believe that my endorsement of Newt Gingrich has be so influential that his poll numbers have dramatically improved because of it, the truth of the matter is that more GOP primary voters are seeing what I’m seeing, that Newt Gingrich is the candidate they want to see go head-to-head with Obama.

Newt Gingrich has taken the lead in PPP’s national polling.  He’s at 28% to 25% for Herman Cain and 18% for Mitt Romney.  The rest of the Republican field is increasingly looking like a bunch of also rans: Rick Perry is at 6%, Michele Bachmann and Ron Paul at 5%, Jon Huntsman at 3%, and Gary Johnson and Rick Santorum each at 1%.

Compared to a month ago Gingrich is up 13 points, while Cain has dropped by 5 points and Romney has gone down by 4.  Although a fair amount of skepticism remains about the recent allegations against Cain there is no doubt they are taking a toll on his image- his net favorability is down 25 points over the last month from +51 (66/15) to only +26 (57/31). What is perhaps a little more surprising is that Romney’s favorability is at a 6 month low in our polling too with only 48% of voters seeing him favorably to 39% with a negative opinion.

Gingrich’s lead caps an amazing comeback he’s made over the last 5 months.  In June his favorability nationally with Republican voters plummeted all the way to 36/49. Now he’s at 68/23, representing a 58 point improvement in his spread since then. As recently as August Gingrich was mired in single digits at 7%, and even in September he was at just 10%.  He’s climbed 18 points in less than 2 months.

Go Newt!

Newt On The Rise

Matt Margolis131 Comments

The other day I broke my tradition of not publicly endorsing a candidate in GOP presidential primary by endorsing Newt Gingrich, today I’m happy to report that polls show that while Newt had a rough start with his campaign, he’s starting to gain traction.

After stumbling badly out of the gate, Newt Gingrich’s presidential campaign is showing surprising signs of life — rising in the polls and even attracting rising support from evangelical voters who have long been cool to the former House speaker.

“I definitely think it ends up Newt versus [former Massachusetts Gov.] Mitt Romney at some point after the caucuses and primaries are under way,” said Iowa House Majority Leader Linda Upmeyer, a Republican who has endorsed the Georgian in her state’s key January caucuses.

“Newt will become the major challenger to Romney,” said Polk County, Iowa, GOP Chairman Daryl Kearney. “All national polls now have Newt with a solid hold on third place.”

He cited a new North Carolina poll that placed Mr. Gingrich second to Mr. Romney ahead of former businessman Herman Cain.

Coupling a string of strong debate performance with rising doubts among the party faithful about the viability of Texas Gov. Rick Perry and Mr. Cain, Mr. Gingrich could become the race’s new magnet for Republicans looking for an alternative to Mr. Romney.

I admit that I originally wrote off Newt as being “yesterday’s news.” But things changed quickly as his performances in the debates showed me that he was the candidate I wanted to see go head-to-head with Obama.

Support Newt today!

My 2012 GOP Primary Endorsement

Matt Margolis61 Comments

I have been blogging since March of 2003. My political activism led me to launch Blogs For Bush in November of that year, and it was a very successful blog.

I enjoyed blogging then. As a conservative new to political blogging, it was nice not to deal with a contentious primary. I am not a big fan of primaries, as too often egos and ambition result in Republicans fighting like they are on stage with Democrats.

In 2008, we had a primary, and I made no endorsements. I had my preferences, but I felt that it was better to remain publicly neutral in the primary for the sake of my readership.

Now, here we are, with another presidential election on horizon. I promised myself early on I would once again refrain from making a public primary endorsement. This was partly because I felt neutrality was best for my readers, and because I have been genuinely open minded about the slate of candidates.

But, things have changed. I have watch several debates, and each time one candidate stands out among the rest. One candidate has consistently demonstrated an ability to keep his on the correct target. Only one candidate has shown an incredible depth of knowledge and experience that is genuine and  honest, and unmatched.

This will likely be my last presidential primary as an active political blogger, and even though I previously promised to remain neutral, I feel that there’s just too much at stake in this election to not throw my public support behind the candidate I feel should face Obama in 2012, and who has the best chance of winning.

That candidate is Newt Gingrich.

those who doubt Newt’s chances of winning the nomination, his campaign sent an email out to supporters earlier today, informing them that “A poll of likely Iowa caucus-goers this week has Newt surging ahead of Mitt Romney by three points.” Newt’s momentum in other early early primary states as well. Clearly, Republican voters are giving Newt a serious look. His performance in tonight’s debate was another impressive performance by a man who not only has a wealth of knowledge on all the issues, but he’s smart enough to not to be played by the media.

Primaries bring out the worst in Republicans, and not just the candidates, but the voters. Newt Gingrich has not only impressed me with his intellect and command of the issues, but also with his ability to stay above the fray. In this election, he’s consistently been the epitome of class and intellect. He’s the man I want to see face Obama next year.

Visit Newt’s website. Follow his campaign on Twitter. Join him on Facebook. Donate to his campaign. We can win if we unite.

Newt Gingrich and Matt Margolis, CPAC 2009

Cheapening The Institution Of Marriage

Matt Margolis28 Comments

I really have no idea who Kim Kardashian is or why so many find who she is and what she does even remotely important.

Nevertheless, the reaction to her 72-day marriage has proponents of gay marriage using her as an example of how heterosexual on their own “cheapen the institution” of marriage more than legal gay marriage does.

So, can someone tell me, how this doesn’t cheapen the institution:

Conan O’Brien hosted his shows under a different moon this week, one hanging in the Beacon Theater. For his weeklong filming stint in New York, O’Brien packed his shows full of surprises culminating in an on-air wedding of his costume designer Scott Cronick and his partner David Gorshein, which the late show host officiated.

As the homosexual community pretends to be the new gatekeepers of the sanctity of the institution of marriage, I want to know how having your wedding on late night television, officiated by a media personality respected the sanctity of marriage.

This is hardly the only thing that bugs me. As homosexuals claim the higher ground on respecting the institution, I must ask how planning mass gay weddings doesn’t cheapen the institution.

The issue of who/what cheapens the institution of marriage is certainly up for discussion, and I would argue that short marriages, show weddings, etc. etc, are symptoms of the actual problem, which in my opinion is a cultural thing which likely comes from Hollywood. But, that’s a bigger topic for another time.

If homosexuals want to claim they do more to respect the institution of marriage than their heterosexual counterparts, the least they could do is take the institution seriously, and not treat gay marriage like a contest they’ve won, and find all sorts of ways to flaunt it, like the only reason they are getting married is to rub it in the faces of gay marriage opponents.

The White House Said Unemployment Would Be 6-7 Percent By Now

Matt Margolis223 Comments

So, today we learned that the unemployment rate ticked down to 9.0 percent, and that has Democrats acting like we’re now oh-so-lucky. Nancy Pelosi is even saying that had it not been for Obama’s stimulus, the unemployment rate would be 15 percent.

Besides the fact that she merely pulled a bigger number out of her ass to make 9 percent unemployment sound like an achievement, the fact of the matter is that the White House sold the stimulus on the assurance it would keep unemployment below 8 percent.

As you know, it didn’t. Unemployment peaked at 10.2 percent, and has remained well above Obama’s estimates. In fact, according to Obama’s calculations, the unemployment rate would have been between 6 and 7 percent by now.

This graph is particularly telling:

Image courtesy of The New York Times

The unemployment rate was actually worse than White House projections had there been no stimulus at all.

That is far more telling than phony estimates from Nancy Pelosi when her objective is to not make Obama look like a total failure.

The New Top Three

Matt Margolis24 Comments

Cain still on a roll, but I do think we are seeing Newt on the rise.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely GOP Primary voters shows Cain with 26% of the vote over former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney’s 23%. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich draws 14% support, with no other GOP contender reaching double-digits. Thirteen percent (13%) of GOP voters are undecided at this time. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

With Perry picking up only 8 percent in the poll, could it be he’s near through?