Campaign 2016

GOP Convention

Mark Noonan38 Comments

Well, here we are – the GOP moment of truth, as it were.

For those still hoping for a non-Trump outcome, Tom Coburn has reportedly said he’d stand as an alternative to Trump. It’s a bit weak sauce – the word is he’ll accept the nomination if offered by the delegates, but won’t actively pursue it. Still, it is, finally, something. We’ll see if the Dump Trump forces can make anything of it.

That aside, the most likely outcome is a Trump love-fest leading up to Trump’s acceptance speech. Which might be interesting to watch – I tend not to watch political speeches because they are mostly just boilerplate (this has been especially true with our current President), but I might tune in for Trump’s effort (I plan on avoiding Hillary’s acceptance speech like the plague…can’t imagine putting up with even five minutes of listening to her).

Trump and the GOP go into this very much a divided house and about 5 points behind Hillary. I doubt that Trump can get the #NeverTrump people on board – those who were willing to grit their teeth and back Trump already have; those who are still #NeverTrump at this point are probably not reachable. On the other hand, I’ve thought for months that the only way Trump could possibly win is to bring into the GOP coalition several million (perhaps 5?) people who normally don’t vote at all, let alone vote GOP. He’ll also need at least some normally Democrat voters (and I think he’ll get them – there’s a large number of registered Democrats in the more rural parts of the country whose loyalty to the Democrats is purely nominal).

I don’t know if Trump can do this. For all the complaints about Priebus and the GOP, the RNC has built an allegedly great get out the vote effort – but whether Trump has the discipline to make good use of it is doubtful…but if he’ll at least give the pros their lead and let them do it, then it could work well for him. It likely still won’t be as good as the Democrats effort, but anything better than 2012 is a massive improvement. On the other hand, Trump had pretty much zero GOTV in the primaries and still secured more votes than any GOPer ever has (and, of course, had more GOPers vote against him than ever before, as well).

I don’t think the money-gap is all that important – Hillary does have (and will maintain) a massive lead in money because she’s bought and those who purchased her will do all they can to make certain their investment gains the White House…but Hillary’s team also seems bloated (as all Progressive efforts wind up) and it might not be efficient and flexible enough to take full advantage. At all events, what happened to Jeb demonstrates conclusively that money does not win elections in and of itself – better to have it than not have it, but better to have a message people like than have lots of money.

The battle between Trump and Hillary is fundamentally between two very much disliked people. I don’t trust the polling much – not that it isn’t useful to pick out trends (it is always useful for that – especially if you follow the RCP polling averages), but I think the electorate is all bollixed up this year. Think about it – if Trump does pull in some millions of people who normally don’t vote, they won’t show up in polls of likely voters. Like this: “Hello, this is Mr Pollster and I’m polling for the election. Tell me, did you vote in the last election?” “Why, no, I didn’t” says the guy with MAGA painted in ten foot high letters on his garage door. “Thank you for your time”, says the pollster. Click. It also works the other way – quite a lot of people who did vote in the previous elections will stay home; both GOPers disgusted with Trump and Dems disgusted with Hillary (not quite sure how that will break but I suspect – and it is just a guess – that more GOPers will stay home than Dems). There are still more Democrats than GOPers in the overall electorate so Hillary (like all Democrats running a national campaign) as a built-in advantage…and I think that is where her current polling advantage comes from. But if a bunch of new people do come in and a bunch of regulars stay out, then her advantage is likely illusory.

Do keep in mind the “ifs” I’ve put in there. And if it is a normal election with the normal electorate, then Hillary wins – and wins pretty handily.

I’ve no dog in this hunt – I don’t know how I’ll vote on November 8th in the Presidential election. I may leave it blank – I’m just not sure. I won’t condemn anyone for their vote in 2016. It is entirely a matter of conscience at this point – vote how you think you should. We’ll all see how it comes out.

UPDATE: Well, the first day is sure interesting. Personally, I think Trump erred in not letting the #DumpTrump people have their roll call…it would have taken a while, but it might have helped soothe anyone who is still capable of being soothed. Some aren’t, of course – but it might have looked better if Trump had allowed the vote to go forward. But, that just isn’t Trump’s style – which is another worrisome aspect of his candidacy. Of course, it also isn’t Hillary’s style, nor has it been Obama’s. The two major parties are firmly in the grip of people who are quite ruthless and always willing to kick someone when they’re down.

Should Conservatives Mount a Third Party Challenge?

Mark Noonan34 Comments

It certainly has been a subject on many minds of late – and The Resurgent provides five reasons for doing so. I’ll concentrate on their first reason:

A conservative third party will lay out the principles of the conservative movement of the future – a new Sharon Statement of non-negotiables.

Not only would a third party give us a candidate to rally around, but it would also give us a platform. With the virtual implosion of the “establishment,” this is the opportunity for conservatives to decide what principles and policies are truly important to the cause, and build a constitutional restorationist party platform. Additionally, like the Against Trump issue of National Review, it would provide a line in the sand for future historians, when liberals begin the inevitable attempt to sling the albatross of Trump’s misdeeds around conservatives’ necks.

That last bit would be the most important – not having Trump tagged as a Conservative, and thus splattering his muck on Conservatism. But it is already too late for that – Trump won the nomination of the Republican Party; the party of Conservatism in the public mind. We’ve already got Trump and will just have to deal with his effects going forward. But even supposing we could erase from the public mind the connection between Trump and Conservatism in the face of certain efforts by the left and their MSM megaphone to tie all Conservatism to Trump from now until the crack of doom, it would only work if such a Third Party effort scored at least 10-20% of the vote and was on enough State ballots to have a theoretical possibility of getting to 270 electoral votes…and that boat has already sailed, I think. It is just too late in the game – we’d need at least many hundreds of millions of dollars right away and an organization already in place to secure ballot access. It just isn’t going to happen. Making an ill-funded effort now would just make us, at best, spoilers in a couple States and if we wound up with less than 2% of the vote, it would work out to a repudiation of Conservatism, as a whole.

I’m going to stick with my views already expressed. For 2016, Conservatives will just have to vote their conscience and let the electoral chips fall where they may. Vote for Trump, vote for one of the existing Third Party choices, leave that part blank or cast a vote for Clinton. Take your pick – none of them are good options. In the end, you’ll really just be deciding which is least-bad. For 2017 and beyond, however, things could be different – if Conservatism shakes off the entirety of our corrupt, decaying Progressive system and strikes out on a new path to a Conservative, Constitutional Republic.

The failure of the #NeverTrump movement to stop Trump in the GOP shows how very difficult it is to change a system from within. It was about an 80 year process of slow infiltration by Progressives before the United States became a fully Progressive nation in policy. But for them, it was easy – they were trying to get into government to make it larger and more powerful. We, on the other hand, would like to get into government to make it smaller and less powerful…given this, no one who is currently deeply involved in government – in the overall system, given how deep government reaches into life these days – will just let us do that. We’ll be fought, step by step, all the way. A Progressive can co-opt a Conservative by offering him a job in Big Government…how can we co-opt a Progressive? We’re proposing to throw him out on his ear and force him to get a job in the productive economy where his pay and promotions will be based upon merit.

And this is why I think that Conservatism needs to stand outside the system – vigorously criticizing it, explaining the alternatives and, really, just waiting for the whole thing to collapse. And it will collapse. There is absolutely no doubt about that – you can’t sustain a civilization on debt, fake money and corruption, large and small. It just doesn’t work, folks. It is true that the collapse might entirely sweep the United States away, but I doubt it – and, at all events, Conservatism should proceed on the assumption that while the collapse will be bad, it won’t be bad enough to cause a complete break up of the Union. Whether Trump wins or loses, a Conservative party should be formed in 2017 – a formal break with the status quo and an insistence that the whole system is rotten to the core. We’ll have no part of it – no part, that is, in destroying the United States. But here we are, waiting for the American people to come around to our views – and the force of circumstance will eventually compel them to do so. Let the left be married to their own lousy creation – let a Conservative party demonstrate that the very “solutions” proposed by the Progressives are the reasons for our national collapse. And then reap the electoral reward when things go smash and we are an alternative absolutely innocent of causing the smash.

Anyway, that is how I view it – it is not a time to tilt at windmills with a Third Party effort in 2016. If we wanted to do that, we should have started in 2015, when we saw that the GOP – massively rewarded by us with power after the 2014 mid-terms – utterly failed to fight for what we believe. We hung around, sure that among our great crop of Conservative candidates, one would emerge as the 2016 GOP nominee – and then we’d get our way. Well, it didn’t work out like that. And, in hindsight, maybe it never was going to work out that way – after all, why would people like Graham, Jeb and Kasich even get into the race, if this was the Conservative Moment? Trump just happened to come along and wallop them, but suppose Trump hadn’t come along…how much you want to bet we’d be getting ready to nominate Jeb or Kasich at this point?

We’re already outsiders, my friends. We have no friends in there – so, let’s step outside and be ourselves. Let’s found a Conservative Party in 2017 – and even if we ultimately fail, at least we would fail being completely ourselves, rather than failing because others used us for cover as they continued the Progressive destruction of our nation.

If you Can’t Stand Fools, Remember That You’re One, Too

Mark Noonan50 Comments

So, The Donald muses that Cruz’ dad was around Lee Harvey Oswald just prior to the JFK assassination. I’d like to say that we’ve reached Peak Stupid with this, but then again I’ve been living my whole life in a nation where about half the people think that Astrology is real. Someone who thinks the positions of the stars at the time of their birth can bear a relation on their personality and fate is someone who could believe that Ted Cruz’ dad had something to do with Oswald. People also believe that aliens have visited us – as if an alien race intelligent enough to figure out how to travel inter-stellar distances would not make itself completely known to the intelligent (sort of) species it located on Earth. Just to give you an idea of how highly advanced you’d have to be to get from one star to another – Voyager 2 is traveling at 55,000 kph and it will get to Sirius – a mere 4.3 light years away – in 296,000 years. The closest Earth-like planet we’ve discovered so far is 13.8 light years away…so, someone able to cut down a couple million year travel time to a time short enough to get here to visit is NOT GOING TO BE VISITING YOKELS IN THE MIDDLE OF NOWHERE, DAMMIT. Nor would such a person allow himself to be captured and held at Area 51.

People seriously believe they are the reincarnation of some past person – invariably, of course, someone who was in a really cool position in the past. No one seems to have a past life where they were just a miserable, illiterate peasant massacred by invading barbarians for no reason at all. People believe that placing crystals on or around your body can heal illness. People believe in acupuncture, ESP, seances, biorhythms…in short, lots of people believe things which are utter nonsense. And they get to vote.

This does make the task of constructing and maintaining a civilized nation rather difficult – but the trick has been done, and been done for quite a long while, at times. I bring this up because a lot of people are getting rather frustrated. We’ve all been rather frustrated with the impervious belief some have in Obama even though the record clearly shows him an absolute failure…and now we’re getting frustrated with Trump supporters who simply cannot or will not see Trump for what he is. But do not despair – built into us, even when we’re being stupid, is common sense. God does not leave us orphans, as it were – there is always an internal corrective.

We know this because all of us have at times fallen for something rather stupid in hindsight. Well, I guess there might be some out there who haven’t – and if you are one of them: congratulations! But for 99.9% of us, folly walks with us our whole lives. We naturally tend to concentrate our memories on those times we saw through the scam, but if we honestly look over our lives we can see the large number of times we were suckers.

My advice for those falling into angry despair over Trump is: get a grip. It’s just a thing which is happening. I don’t like it, either – but I am not in control of the destinies of the world. I can only do what I think is right each day. I’m not gulled by Trump – and so I won’t support him. I hope that those who do support him realize where he’d lead us. But it might take hard experience to instruct – and if that is the case, we as a people will emerge from this that much wiser. And this is true whether Trump wins or loses – if he wins, we’ll get a load of what that sort of person does while President; if he loses, we’ll get a taste of what throwing aside near-certain victory to someone like Hillary is like.

Shortly we’ll know how the Indiana battle came out – and we might find that the die is cast and Trump is the Republican standard-bearer. Deal with it. Move on. Vote the way your conscience tells you in November and however it comes out, just keep trying to do what you believe is right. When your time comes to exit, as long as you’ve at least made an effort at doing that, you’ll have fewer regrets…and by just decently trying to do your best, you might sway more people your way than you imagine.

Understanding Trumpism

Mark Noonan36 Comments

Honest, I was going to write this article! In fact, I had a draft going…but, I got behind a bit and, anyways, Victor Davis Hanson is a much better writer than I am…so, here ya go.

As we stare in amazement at the phenomena of Trump and wonder just what the heck his followers are thinking, there is a rather simple answer. And Hanson provides it:

…What the elites now consider normal and standard seems, to a growing minority of Americans, aberrant and unhinged — and they are looking for a remedy, even if it is mostly rhetorical and chimerical.

Members of the so-called establishment do not fear receiving a memo announcing that an immigrant technician on a work visa will be taking their place or that their jobs will be outsourced overseas. For that matter, I don’t expect that my employer, the Hoover Institution, will move to Mexico to cut costs, or that National Review will hire a foreign national to write this column for 40 percent of what it currently pays.

When the son or daughter of someone in New York or Washington who despises the symbolism of the Trump candidacy does not quite top out on the SAT, or does not make it to Ghana for his or her cultural-diversity summer internship, or does not earn a prep school’s full recommendation, and so does not get into Yale or Princeton, does the parent happen to know a powerful public figure, an Ivy League insider, or a rich donor who might wish to call and put in a good word for an underappreciated but talented white male? If so, then that parent is navigating around affirmative action rather than upholding it. Meanwhile, the 18-year-old son of a truck driver in Grand Rapids, of the wrong sex and color, is out of luck…

Do read the whole thing.

Lately, Trump has been rising in the polls and looks like he’s got a shot at winning Indiana – and if he does, that is very close to game over for Cruz; Trump might well secure a first-ballot majority, or come so close that it doesn’t matter. How did Trump come back from the drubbing Cruz gave him in Wisconsin? By complaining about the way Cruz – following the rules to the letter – was securing delegates which his vote totals didn’t justify. You and I know that this is just playing by the rules and that, indeed, the arcane rules of a Republic are the best assurance against tyranny…but for most people, just watching from the sidelines, it is just unfair that someone who got more votes should come in second to the person who got less votes. Trump’s whine, as we anti-Trumpers put it, resonated far and wide across America. It just isn’t fair – and the American people, bottom line, are mostly sick of the rank unfairness of the current system.

Now, to be sure, some Trumpsters have gone full racist and/or anti-Semitic, perceiving in their minds that some sort of Minority or Jewish Conspiracy is the cause of the unfairness. This is actually a common failing among humans – to easily believe that it is the Other who has caused the problem. But leaving aside the Trumpsters who believe that, the overwhelming mass of them are just people who can see that things are lousy, well-connected people are getting an easy ride, and anyone who complains is shouted down as a racist/sexist/homophobe.

Well, not everyone is a racist/sexist/homophobe – but those who are being insulted with those terms do see their school systems collapsing; their faith insulted; their national heroes spat upon; their jobs shipped overseas or taken by someone from another land who will do it for less; their prices for basic necessities going up…and, here in 2016, quite a lot of them are very mad. And if some of them are lashing out in an rage then it must be understood that it was a provoked rage. People content with their lives and feeling that things are roughly fair don’t get enraged. Period.

And as Hanson also points out, whatever you want to say about Trump – and I’ll heartily join you in saying it – it can be matched by Hillary, by Sanders, by the majority of Democrat and Republican party leaders. By the leaders of the bureaucracy and the corporations. By those who run the outlets of popular media culture. If Trump is a lying, vulgar nincompoop then so are all the rest of them. In the race right now, only Cruz is in any way free from the dishonesty of the overall American system. The concept that some how or another electing Hillary would be an improvement over electing Trump is utter nonsense. The concept that Trump is more divisive than Obama has been is utter nonsense. The concept that Trump is not spiritually at one with all the rest of the people in charge is utter nonsense. And the people are given a choice – Trump’s clown show or Hillary’s…if the choice does come down to that, I think a lot of people will go for Trump on the simple calculation that just maybe, by some miracle, those who have been destroying America will at least get their smug hypocrisy shoved back in their faces. Whether that will be enough to elect Trump remains to be seen – but such an action by tens of millions of American voters in November won’t be an act of stupidity, nor an irrational act. What would be stupid and irrational is voting for Hillary as an allegedly superior option – everyone who isn’t a blind partisan knows for a fact that Hillary is a crook…we don’t know, for certain, that Trump is.

And this is why I refuse to be drawn in to insult wars against Trumpsters. Trumpism is a failure just waiting to happen…but just going along with what we’ve already got is a failure that is already upon us. I do wish the Trumpsters would see through Trump and realize that Cruz is the best option. If Trump goes down to flaming defeat in November, I’m hoping that the Trumpsters shake off Trumpism and in 2020 go for a Cruz or a Walker or a Jindal. But Trumpism is a going concern simply because those who have been running the show have been running America into the ground, and profiting greatly off the resultant disaster. Unless and until the Republican Party embraces revolutionary reform of the United States, Trump or someone like him will always find a ready ear at least among a large minority of Americans.

Conservatives: Don’t Get Mad; Get Thinking

Mark Noonan21 Comments

Please note: this post has been edited a bit since first published.

Bit more than a month ago I wrote a longish article about Kevin Williamson’s opinion regarding the people who are backing Trump – I do regret the title of the article, but I was a bit hot under the collar. At any rate, Williamson got a lot of flack over that article and wrote an article defending himself against his detractors and in it Williamson had this to say of those who, perhaps, aren’t doing as well for themselves as they ideally should:

F*** ’em.

Perhaps that is taking a comment out of context? Well, let’s take a look at a larger quote to put it into some context:

What to do about dysfunctional families in dysfunctional communities? I have a great deal of experience with that question — a great deal more experience than ever I wanted to have in this life. And my answer to what to do about a community or a family that offers you little or nothing and that may be actively working against your real long-term interest is for me the same today as it was 25 years ago, when I first was forced to consider it and answered in the argot of my own downscale tornado-bait community:

“F*** ’em.”

Michael worries about dying old mill towns in upstate New York and similar places and wonders why the party of free enterprise doesn’t have more to offer people dwelling in them. He imagines a disability fraudster dwelling in Garbutt, N.Y., and asks what we (we conservatives) are going to do for him and his sad little town. (Among the many dishonest responses to my piece were those treating the addled fraud artist in Garbutt as my hostile literary invention rather than Michael’s sympathetic one; no doubt Michael will have a lot to answer for the next time he visits the Greater Garbutt Chamber of Commerce.) My answer is that if there’s nothing for you in Garbutt but penury, dysfunction, and addiction, then get the hell out. If that means that communities in upstate New York or eastern Kentucky or west Texas die, so what? If that’s all they have to offer, then they have it coming.

In contrast to the attitude expressed there, I offer this quote from The Lord of the Rings – Aragorn is explaining himself to Boromir in the the Council of Elrond:

And yet less thanks have we than you. Travellers scowl at us, and countrymen give us scornful names. “Strider” I am to one fat man who lives within a day’s march of foes that would freeze his heart, or lay his little town in ruin, if he were not guarded ceaselessly. Yet we would not have it otherwise. If simple folk are free from care and fear, simple they will be, and we must be secret to keep them so…

It is the duty of those who have the mental and physical strength to stand guard – ceaselessly – over those who don’t. We all know it, instinctively. The police officer and the soldier put themselves between regular folks and those who would do harm. They aren’t better people than everyone else; they are just people who have been gifted in a certain way. Other people, those who don’t stand on the wall, have different gifts – and gifts which if not utilized, would prevent the soldier and the police officer from doing their duty. Not everyone can do every possible task. But a task is not less honorable because it is a common task – meaning, a task that most people do. Everyone has their part to play in life. For some, it is to simply go to work and pay the bills. For others, to take care of family and home. For yet others to be doctors and other agents of mercy. The doctor is not superior to the work-a-day guy who makes shipping boxes at the local factory – but the doctor, by reason of his position, is to help the work-a-day guy. If he gets sick or injured, the doctor rushes to his aid…just so he can get back to making boxes; not so that, once cured, he can go off and conquer the world. And the political leader – which includes not just those who seek office but also those who seek to form public opinion – has a duty to help the less instructed in political matters to understand why things are as they are, and how they might be made better.

I don’t know Kevin Williamson’s whole story, but from what is quoted here it seems clear he came from a rather distressed background. By dint of hard work, he overcame that and has risen high in the world – to a place of respect and influence. Now in that position, what is Mr. Williamson supposed to do? Perhaps, if he sees that gross immorality is playing a baleful role in the lives of the simple people he grew up among, his duty is to try and drive those things out of the community? If he sees that economic decay is taking away the wherewithal of those people to even try to build a better life, then his duty is to try and repair the economy? I can’t see that his duty would be to condemn out of hand those who haven’t made the better choices.

These days, because no one has been standing guard over our communities, the simple people are no longer simple – they are harassed out of their wits by things which they don’t understand and can’t effectively deal with. They are unequipped by nature to deal with drug addiction, family break up, public immorality and economic collapse. Those who are equipped to help correct these ills must help. At least, that is how I see it. After all, what worth is there in obtaining knowledge except to use it in the service of others? One person cannot cure the ills of the world. Indeed, were all of us wise, we still couldn’t cure all the ills of the world. That is not our office. But I do think we are bound to try, within the limits of our gifts, to do what we can to make things better.

Conservatism, as I’ve said, is about conserving Judeo-Christian morality. But, let’s step down a little bit from there and get to the practical, nitty-gritty of it all. Conservatism is about making sure that Mom and Dad can raise their kids in peace as they see fit. In order to do this, there first must be immense respect accorded to anyone who voluntarily promises their life to another in matrimony. Second, there must be laws and customs in place which put such men and women at a distinct advantage over people who don’t choose that life – because if people don’t volunteer to do this task, there isn’t merely a collapse of civilization, but an end of humanity. Third, there must be maintained a healthy level of economic activity to ensure that Mom and Dad have the resources – if they work hard and live frugally – to raise their children and leave them a legacy.

It is true that some times a town dies. Goldfield, NV was once a booming mining town – now it is a dusty dot on the map with a population of less than 300. The gold which made the town in the early 20th century is long played out. But telling everyone to get up and move if things aren’t in the sweet spot is a formula for the break down of family and community. All else being equal, it is far better if a person lives where born – using talents and energy to contribute a life time of benefit to the people he or she lives among. The extra strong and vigorous will always be able to make a place for themselves – but not everyone is capable of that. In fact, most people aren’t. Americans are a bit different in that in the days of our expansion we got a continual supply of people who were the strong and vigorous (if they hadn’t been, they wouldn’t have left the home country). This ancestral energy still moves through America – but it becomes attenuated as time goes on. People don’t automatically inherit the abilities or the desires of their parents. And being rooted in a place and loving it warts and all is also a great strength…and in some cases a greater strength than wandering off and seeking some new El Dorado.

There is much to be said against Trump and those who are following him so heartily. There is also much to be said against Hillary and those who are following her. While Hillary, herself, is not a clownish vulgarian like Trump, her followers are just as blind to the reality of Hillary as Trump’s followers are to him (and, often, just as vulgar as any Trumpster). We have discovered in 2016 that plenty of our fellow citizens have only a dim idea of how things are supposed to work in a democratic republic. We have also found – though I think we all knew it for years – that the vials of wrath are very full. But those who know better have a duty to try and stand against the storm – to instruct, rather than condemn. But one can only instruct when there is a bit of mutual respect between teacher and pupil. Calling people you disagree with fools for disagreeing is not likely to generate mutual trust.

I know this makes two articles I’ve written about Kevin Williamson, but please understand that I’m not actually condemning him. He’s a great writer and has a lot of very smart things to say about the world. I just think that in this case – and probably under a great deal of provocation – Williamson and plenty of people like him have lost sight of something rather important. The people we have in the United States today are the people we’ve got to work with. If they’ve gone off the rails a bit, then the task is to get them back on the rails. Perhaps we in the Conservative movement have been missing some rather important points? Perhaps we have been talking to each other too much? Liberals do that all the time, folks – and it is a common human failing. It is called Confirmation Bias – or, to paraphrase Chesterton: It is not bigotry to be sure you’re right, but it is bigotry to not see how you might have gone wrong. Maybe we’ve gone a bit wrong? Maybe a bit of humility and a bit of listening to those who are so angry will give us some insight in how to turn them away from mountebanks like Trump (and Hillary) and back to things which will actually satisfy their real needs?

In all the Trump phenomena, I have refused to be drawn into insult matches with Trump supporters. I’ve had plenty of opportunities, to be sure – but I’ve always held back. Partially this was because I just didn’t want to fight – but now I realize that it was some small strain of wisdom which has rather astonishingly grown in me: it doesn’t serve any purpose.

Think of it like this. Trump is a terrible person – those who vote for him are stupid! Well, Hillary is also a terrible person – those who vote for her are stupid, too! What does that work out to? Well, if it’s Trump vs Hillary in November, then it means that 100% of the voting population is stupid…doesn’t matter if its divvied up 60% for Hillary and 40% for Trump. Everyone’s stupid! But, no – everyone isn’t stupid. Misinformed? Sure. Haven’t thought everything through? Definitely. But not stupid – and the task is to reach these people and explain to them in a way they’ll accept where their true interests are. But here’s the kicker: if we go up to them and say, “hey, you moron, this is what you have to believe”, I’m guessing that the message won’t sink in quite the way we’d like.

2016 will go along and what will be, will be. Perhaps Cruz will stop Trump and then figure out how to beat Hillary. That would be great. Perhaps the Convention will deadlock and a Jindal/Martinez ticket will emerge as a compromise. That would be proof that Bismarck was right – there is a special providence for fools, drunkards and the United States of America. But however it comes out, the task ahead is to work out ways and means to reach the American people and convince them of the rock, solid truth that their real desires will be met (as far as that is possible given human frailty) by a genuinely Conservative government. That takes treating people with respect – even when you think them wrong. That takes offering them hope – even when their own actions have put them in a pretty hopeless situation.

I’ve been saying for a while that Conservatism has to think anew and act anew in order to win in modern America. I’m actually hopeful that out of the morass of this election year, this will start to sink in.

The State of the Race

Mark Noonan45 Comments

Is Trump done? Not at all. He only needs to secure on the first ballot 482 of the remaining 798 delegates outstanding. That is about 60% of the remainder, though, so he’d have to do much better going forward than he has so far. And that is much more difficult for him to do because there’s only three in the race, now, and Trump has made himself ever more toxic to everyone but his core supporters.

Cruz, meanwhile, has the nearly impossible task of getting about 90% of the remaining delegates to secure a first ballot nomination – anything can happen in politics, but it is almost a certainty that Cruz won’t be able to do that. But that, at any rate, doesn’t seem to be Cruz’ plan right now – the reason he’s working hard at getting his people into the delegations to the Convention is he figures (a) he can’t get a first ballot majority and (b) neither can Trump. Many of Cruz’ people will have to vote Trump on the first ballot but after that, it’s pretty much anything goes…but as these people were selected with massive input from Cruz, it is highly unlikely they’ll go for anyone other than Cruz, unless the convention deadlocks after multiple ballots are taken. Then Cruz backers might start looking around for a non-Trump, non-Establishment alternative. Of course, Cruz also has to worry not just about how Trump does, but how Kasich does…if Trump plus Kasich equals “nominating majority”, then Kasich might well throw his support to Trump, putting him over the top. Whatever amount Trump falls short, it will be vital to Cruz to make sure he falls farther short than whatever Kasich has.

It occurred to me today that as well as securing himself friendly 2nd ballot delegates, Cruz may also be making a play to take over the Party. Remember, regardless of who they are pledged to vote for on the first ballot, Cruz-backing delegates will be voting on the rules for the Convention. If Cruz gets enough of his people in there, then Cruz sets the agenda for the Convention. And given how diligent Cruz has been at this nuts-and-bolts stuff, I’d be shocked if among his selected delegates there aren’t people who have mastered the rules of parliamentary procedure. People who know that stuff can tie things up in knots, and untie them just as swiftly…while those who don’t know the rules won’t know what hit them. Given that Trump has proven himself manifestly ignorant of the nuts-and-bolts of politics, I’d expect the Convention to steamroller Trump…and, also, go a long way towards making sure Establishment types don’t parachute someone else into the nomination.

I have to admit to being ever more impressed with Cruz. I’ve always admired his firm stance on Constitutional government, but he’s also showing rare ability to just work the system – set up, it must be said, by people who despise him and wanted to precisely keep out people like him – to his advantage. He prepares. He studies. He does the mind-numbingly boring stuff it takes to get things done. Of course, he can’t do it alone so he must have hired some really cracker jack people to help him out. Given the towering unpopularity of Hillary and her massively dispirited base, I’m starting to think that Cruz might be able to make mince meat out of her in the fall. We’ll have to see – and, of course, it is not even remotely certain that Cruz will prevail in Cleveland. Lot of politics to go through before we get there.

Bernie is, however, done – he never was other than done, anyway. The Democrat Party has determined that Hillary will be the nominee. Lot of factors probably playing to that. Not least is the fact that the party it honeycombed with Hillary loyalists…but it is more than that. It is her “turn”, you see? Democrats really think like that – not all of them, but enough to grind it out. But it is still remarkable that Hillary has yet to put Sanders down. I suspect it will be end of April, start of May before she manages it…and then only with the sort of chicanery which often gives her as many delegates from a State as Sanders gets, even when he blows her out among the voters.

The State of the Campaign

Mark Noonan14 Comments

Trump and Cruz square off in Wisconsin tomorrow and if Cruz wins – as is expected via polling – then it will get very difficult for Trump to secure a first-ballot nomination…and that is pretty much the end of the game for Trump because Cruz, who actually understands the process, has been busily securing delegates at State conventions…and even if they have to vote Trump on the first ballot, they will be solid Cruz votes on the second and subsequent ballots.

Trump is, naturally, complaining about this – and that, for me, is the final nail in his political coffin. He didn’t do his homework – running for President is a much more difficult and demanding activity than he suspected and voting, especially in the primaries, is only part of the game. I expect him and a large portion of his backers to get all stompy-foot about it and by doing that they may, indeed, wreck GOP chances in November…but given how toxic Trump has become over his alligator mouth, his getting the nomination probably wouldn’t have worked out any different. Meanwhile, Cruz has at least a chance to unite enough of the party and gain just enough cross-over votes to stop Hillary…it would be a hard fight and the money would have to be bet on Hillary, but at least it would be a chance for the GOP, given how massively unpopular Hillary is. If, however, the GOP Powers That Be – who despise Cruz probably more than they do Trump – lock out both of them and hand the nomination to someone who didn’t even run in the primaries or who was knocked out early, then the GOP is definitely doomed – both Trump and Cruz supporters will justifiably cry foul and stay home.

Over on the Democrat side, Hillary is the Democrat’s Trump – at least in the sense that she simply didn’t prepare for the contest. And this is a terrible indictment of her leadership ability given that she was taught no end of a lesson in 2008. Hillary had all the money and the entire party behind her and she still can’t put Bernie down. I am still pretty certain she’ll be able to muscle her way to the nomination but she’s day by day turning off the most determined and enthusiastic Democrats. Say what you will about Bernie, but he’s an honest man who is actually campaigning on what the Democrat base wants…Hillary is making a belated lurch to the far left trying to stop him, but the reek of hypocrisy is strong and, meanwhile, she’s providing all sorts of ammunition for the eventual GOP nominee to use against her. A lot of people have said that Hillary is smart – sorry, but I don’t see it. I see not the slightest evidence of intelligence in her actions over her public life. She’s just rote recited whatever current Democrat talking points are, has greedily sucked up as much money for herself as she can and cruelly gone after anyone who has got in her way. She might wind up being President, but she’ll be a lousy President that no one but her sycophants has a kind word for.

The Smartest Take on Trump

Mark Noonan53 Comments

It is from Victor Davis Hanson – first, “Is Hillary Better Than Trump?”:

Is Hillary perhaps still a Bill Clinton centrist or at least an elite member of the establishment whose first allegiance is the sober and judicious status quo?

No. Her tenure as secretary of State was the worst since Cyrus Vance served under Jimmy Carter. To Vance-like incompetence and therapeutic blather, she added serial dishonesty, violations of the law, callousness toward the families of the Benghazi dead, and opportunistic trashing of her predecessors. Hillary was as responsible as her boss for the Russian reset, the Iranian deal, the Libyan tragedy, the implosion of Iraq after the needless total withdrawal, the cluelessness about ISIS, the red lines/deadlines/step-over lines embarrassments, the slow and steady decline of Afghanistan, the genocide in Syria, the reach-out to thugs like the Castro brothers and Recep Erdogan, and the estrangement from Israel. She may have not done the apology tour, but it reflected well enough her worldview of the moment, as did the euphemism campaign of workplace violence and man-caused disasters…

Then, “Is Trump a Sure Loser?”

There is a good chance of it. I think he has no idea what Clinton, Inc. will do to him and will probably lose by a wide margin. But if that battle is lost, it was lost also when the Republican establishment and center nominated fine and upstanding trimmers like John McCain and Mitt Romney and a Congress that sought to slow rather than halt Obama’s frenetic efforts to socialize the U.S.

Do read the whole things because, as is usual with Hanson, every word repays reading. I’ll wait. Go on, read it.

Ok, all done? See what I mean – you already feel smarter than you were 20 minutes ago.

For those who are #NeverTrump and are arguing that Trump represents some horrible departure in American politics – an unprecedented level of vitriol, cluelessness, corruption and racial animosity – I have a couple questions to ask: where you been since 2007? If Trump is an incipient fascist out to destroy American liberty, then just what has Obama been up to? Have you forgotten the way the IRS went after TEA Party groups? That Ben Carson was magically audited right after he offended Obama? That the maker of an obscure video was actually arrested in service of the Obama Administration lie about what caused Benghazi? That Petraeus was convicted for far less than what Hillary hasn’t been indicted for? That Senator Menendez as given a pass on corruption when Obama needed him as a supporter, but as soon as he turned on Obama vis a vis Iran and Cuba, he got indicted? That Obama’s people spied on and harassed members of the MSM who didn’t entirely toe the Obama line? That Obama fanned the flames of racial animosity just to goose Democrat turnout for 2012? No matter what Trump might do as President, it isn’t anything that Obama hasn’t already done…and what Obama has done was done with the eager cooperation of Hillary Clinton.

We do have a real problem in this nation – freedom is under siege. Decency is despised. Honesty is considered a sucker bet. Trump may well exacerbate these trends but so would Hillary – it’s a complete toss up as to which one of them would be worse. But one thing we do already know – Hillary has held political power and corruptly used it to advance and/or protect herself and her cronies. Trump, by fact that he’s never held any political power, hasn’t.

As I’ve said before, I’ll never be a Trump supporter – but I’m not going to let my disgust at Trump’s antics blind me to just how lousy Hillary’s record is…nor Obama’s.

Super Tuesday

Mark Noonan40 Comments

UPDATE III: Votes are still being counted, but I’m encouraged. It has been a good night for Trump but not that good. There’s no reason, I can see, for either Rubio or Cruz to get out at this point (Rubio’s big stand will have to be in FL in two weeks. He must win there).

Sure, Trump still is the front-runner and has the best chance of getting the GOP nomination, but there is a chance that either Rubio and Cruz will keep dogging him and denying him a first-ballot majority, or one of them may yet become the Anti-Trump and roll up more delegates than Trump. We’ll have to see how it comes out.

UPDATE IV: Ok, so the votes are counted.

First and foremost, the Democrat turnout has collapsed against 2008 and the GOP turnout was not just large, it was remarkably large, historic…record setting, I understand in some States. These are numbers which in normal politics would indicate a Republican landslide in November…but with Trump at the top of the heap, we just don’t know…and might not know until the votes are counted on November 8th.

Second, I don’t see any reason for Bernie to drop out on the Democrat side. Hillary did roll up some big wins, but the States that the primaries are heading to are much more Bernie-friendly. In the end I do expect the Democrat leadership to muscle Hillary into the nomination, but if I were Bernie – or one of his supporters – I’d carry on the fight. I’ve talked with a number of these Democrat Bernie supporters…unlike the Obama-bots, they don’t seem to be relentlessly nasty people. They are wrong, but not wrong-headed. I wish them well – I don’t want a Socialist United States, but I admire the sincerity and conviction of these people.

Third – now what, for the GOP? As I said last night, no reason for Cruz or Rubio to back out at this point, though Rubio has to win in Florida on the 15th to remain in any way credible. There is a chance – a small one – that the combination of Cruz and Rubio can deny Trump a first ballot majority at the Convention. This does not mean that Trump isn’t going to be the nominee – the only way to prevent that at this point is for a candidate to roll up more delegates than Trump does, and that is a vanishingly small probability. But if Cruz and Rubio come to Cleveland with enough delegates to prevent Trump from winning on the first ballot, then Trump is going to have to make a deal…and it will be a deal with two candidates who rose out of the TEA Party movement. In other words, if Cruz and Rubio are worth anything, they’ll be able to force Trump to make some moves which would make a Trump candidacy and Presidency far more palatable. Just as one scenario: Rubio gets the VP slot, Cruz gets a SCOTUS promise. That sort of thing would make #NeverTrump into #WTFOkIGuessTrump. We’ll have to see how that plays out (no, I’ll never be a Trump supporter)

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On Behalf of Nevada, I Apologize Open Thread

Mark Noonan70 Comments

My goodness – about 75,000 people participated in the GOP Caucus yesterday. Doesn’t sound like much? Well, 31,500 participated in 2012…and Trump got more votes last night than there were 2012 participants.

I think we’re all a little stunned this morning – at least, I know I am. It is becoming real, now…Trump is almost sure to be the GOP nominee. And with Trump being able to gin up turnout numbers like that, I really, really doubt “expert” opinion which says that he’s a sure loser in November. Whenever Hillary and Bernie go at it hammer and tongs, the number of Democrats who show up has gone down, not up. Declining number of voters vs rising number of voters…who do you think is better able to win, in the end?

UPDATE: If I had to put my finger on it, I’d say that it was Jeb Bush’s candidacy which nailed it all down for Trump…here was the Establishment writ large immediately raising buckets of money and people started to feel, “damn; they’re going to force us to pick Bush and it will be Bush vs Hillary”. It appeared to me the Walker was sitting atop the polls until Trump got in…and provided the absolute anti-Establishment voice…he immediately crushed the life out of the Walker campaign (and what small amount of life there had been in the Jindal campaign) and left us with a collection of pure Establishmentarians or outsiders who, thus far, haven’t had what it takes to bring down Trump…but if Bush hadn’t got in, I think it would have gone very differently.