Some Thoughts

Mark Noonan19 Comments

You know what a free trade treaty should say? This:

Goods and services may flow freely between Country A and Country B, unless such goods or services are illegal in the receiving country.

Or, if you’d like to have semi-free trade with a small tariff – this:

Goods and services may flow freely between Country A and Country B, unless such goods or services are illegal in the receiving country.

A tariff no larger than 5% of the purchase price in the receiving country may be levied.

That’s it – it is all you need, if what you want is free trade. Now, take a look at the text of the Trans Pacific Partnership. It is page after page of incomprehensible, bureaucratic gibberish which is designed to allow the maximum latitude for un-elected bureaucrats to “adjust” things based upon who is bribing the best at the moment. It isn’t a free trade agreement – it’s a mechanism whereby whomever is in charge at the moment can claim it means whatever they want.

The trouble with our political life is that we’ve raised political issues to the status of religious dogmas. Free Trade has become a dogma and you are not to question it, period. But that is just one of a thousand political and/or economic things we are told we’re just not allowed to dissent from. Nonsense. I can dissent from any statement issued by any man or woman – God and His Word are eternal and unchanging…everything else is subject to revision.

Of course, expert opinion says we must have free trade – but, what is expert opinion? It astonishes me that the same experts who were saying a few weeks ago that it was certain to be Hillary in a landslide are now, straight-faced, saying it is certain to be Hillary in a squeaker; or any variation between those two points. Experts this year seem a very strange thing.

For example, on Friday night on Twitter the experts were agog over a rush to vote in Nevada on the last day of early voting – they were tweeting out shocked statements about how amazing it was that so many people, strongly Latino, were just jamming the polling places…lining up for a couple hours to do so. This was IT – proof that Trump is completely DOOMED on Tuesday. Did none of these people think for a moment that these people jamming the polling places late on Friday evening had two weeks in which to early vote and, of course, could still vote on Tuesday? I mean, sure, I totally get a strong anti-Trump vote from Latino voters…it is expected. No one doubts that Hillary will crush it among Latino voters this election. But the fact that all of a sudden, right at the end of early voting, a huge number of them just “happened” to show up means that it was planned that way. For crying out loud, are we to believe that these people just suddenly remembered they hated Trump that much? “Oh, my goodness! I forgot that I hate Trump a lot – better get to the polls right now! Even though I could have done this any time in the past two weeks or could easily do it on Tuesday…I’ll do it NOW…”. It was a stunt – a well-managed stunt, I grant, but a stunt nonetheless. It was a Narrative-driver, an attempt to get people talking about a surge of Hillary support on the eve of the election. It was, folks, politics – which is street theater writ large. Now, it could well presage a huge anti-Trump vote on Tuesday…or, it could be that they’re just milking their Tuesday vote. We’ll find out on Tuesday…but to read some cosmic truth into a political stunt is absurd.

But it has been like that all year – people picking out small pieces of data and extrapolating from that to a complete theory of what is going on. Here’s the kicker – if their predictions wind up in line with reality, they’ll be hailed as political geniuses…and if their predictions are wrong, they’ll just blame bad polling and move on to the next election. For crying out loud, people – the experts are mostly liberal Democrats who are members of the MSM and thus share a strong desire that Hillary wins and Trump loses. Maybe they’ve got it right, maybe they’re wish-casting. But until the votes are actually counted, no one can be sure. Lots of people are saying that Reagan’s win in 1980 surprised no one. They are either lying or they simply weren’t around or aware at the time…it was a shocker. No one was expecting it. The 2014 mid-terms were also a complete shock – right up until the votes started to come in, everyone was thinking that the GOP might actually get beaten…right before the GOP gained 9 Senate seats and the largest number of State legislative seats since 1928. And yet, here we are, hanging on the words of people who are only right by accident…

If your expert analysis is that the Browns will lose against Dallas tomorrow, then you’re probably be right…but that won’t make you a genius. And they’ll still have to play the game…and maybe the Browns get lucky? Or the Cowboys unlucky? You want to prove to me that you’re a genius at predicting things? Then I want to see your prediction from a few weeks back – before the game was played – wherein you said that the Bolts would be up 13 points half way thru the 4th quarter and then would give up two fumbles resulting in scoring drives by the other team. You don’t know the future. Ever.

Trump got rushed off the stage in Reno by the Secret Service – from what I can tell, it was because a nut was acting like a nut. Good job on the part of the Secret Service being so alert.

Israel’s “partners for peace” name a school after a guy who planned the Munich Massacre.

Dethrone the House of Clinton.

Never Trump is still pretty convinced that Trump will lose and they are eagerly rubbing their hands at the prospect of the purge they’ll conduct. Bit of advice – don’t bother; everyone you don’t like will purge themselves from you and go on to other things. If Conservatism is just a mechanism whereby we mildly dissent from reigning Progressive orthodoxy, then no one will want any part of it…including 90% of Conservatives.

Hillary doesn’t like it when men make crude remarks – unless it’s at one of her rallies.

Trump campaign office vandalized in Denver…I expect liberals to start wringing their hands over Hillary’s harsh, exclusionary rhetoric just about the time pigs fly.

Trump and Pence are heading to Minnesota – probably an extremely long-shot and may be just a head-fake. But this year I do invite Minnesota to repair it’s 1984 shame of being the only State in the nation which didn’t go for Reagan – who fell 3,761 votes shy of a 50-State sweep.

Weekend Pre-Elect-Mageddon Open Thread

Mark Noonan18 Comments

They never, ever give up – the British people voted to leave the European Union and, so, naturally this means that those who don’t want to leave file a lawsuit to undo the will of the people. Boiled down, they are trying to force a vote in Parliament over it – most of Parliament being opposed to Brexit because, being politicians, they actually like it when all the rules are made by secretive, un-elected bodies they aren’t responsible for. Trust me on this, if a majority of Parliament ever thinks they can survive voting to stay in the EU, they will…

Gateway Pundit has a bit of compare-and-contrast: 4,100 at a Hillary rally, 17,500 at a Trump rally – rallies only a sort distance apart. They say rallies don’t matter – but, let’s face it, Trump draws huge crowds effortlessly while Team Hillary has to drag them in…and gets far fewer. Whatever happens on Tuesday, Trump people really want something while Hillary people seem rather “meh” about the whole thing.

We must have NATO! Well, NATO now includes a dictatorship which is arresting it’s own citizens in huge batches. Tell me, Americans, you want your sons and daughters going to the defense of Turkey?

Peak Atlantic – they actually have an article wondering why Hillary is so beloved.

Democrats are hoping for a replay of Nixon’s “Saturday night massacre”. This whole Comey thing shows that Democrats are only interested in power.

There’s no such thing as voter fraud – but there is such a thing as 83 mail-in ballots showing up at one address in 83 different names. Registrar says it was just a clerical error – which is as believable as “if you like your plan, you can keep it”.

Don Surber notes that the Washington Post is getting a little nervous.

Gay Patriot lays out what is wrong with the leaders of American Conservatism:

Like the rest of the Republican Establishment, George Will does not think the concerns raised by the “Basket of Deplorables” who are voting for Trump are legitimate. Their concern about the hollowing out of middle America … not legitimate. Their concern about the unchecked flood of immigrants and their effects on low-skilled job wages, schools, and welfare systems…. completely illegitimate. Their concern that Washington DC has become a cozy, cronyist cabal of politicians, lobbyists, donors, and media? Not legitimate at all.

Like most of the GOP, Will thinks that the Trump phenomenon is entirely based on personality and “racist/sexist/xenophobic” rhetoric that excites a certain stupid portion of the electorate who will all go back to eating the excrement sandwiches the GOP will provide once Trump is gone.

Ain’t gonna happen. Win or lose, the old way of doing business if over, for good.

Which is the Threat – Russia or China?

Mark Noonan157 Comments

Got into a little Twitter flare up over just who is the Putin stooge in this election – Hillary or Trump? Team Hillary was all afire on Monday with dark hints about Trump’s nefarious ties to Putin…and Never Trump quickly seconded her charges, apparently forgetting Hillary’s little Bribes-For-Uranium deal with Russian “businessmen” who would make Don Corleone blush. But the underlying thing here is just how much a threat Putin’s Russia poses.

Now, to be sure, Romney was quite right in 2012 that Russia was no partner of the United States – was, in fact, working diligently against American interests in Europe and the Middle East. Romney was ridiculed for that by all Democrats – someone quipping that the 1980’s called and they wanted their foreign policy back, I believe. Fast forward to 2016, and all of a sudden our Democrats are more vigorously anti-Kremlin than Reagan was 30 years ago. What changed? Electoral politics – a foreign bogey-man is always useful in politics, if you can somehow tie your opponent to same. It is a bit of a stretch to tie Trump to Putin – the closest connections seem to be with a person who used to work for Trump’s campaign – but off they go, and the MSM gladly helps Team Clinton out. But is Russia all that much a threat? Let’s take a look:

Population:

USA – 324 million

Russia – 143 million

Fit for military service (males):

USA – 59 million

Russia – 21 million

Naval power:

Carriers – USA 10, Russia 1
Amphibious assault ships – USA 9, Russia 0
Cruisers – USA 22, Russia 4
Destroyers – USA 63, Russia 21
Ballistic Missile Submarines – USA 10, Russia 4
Attack Submarines – USA 52, Russia 18 (plus some old diesel boats rusting around).

I could go on like that – not much of a military threat to the United States. Given that Russia’s GDP is somewhat less than South Korea’s, they aren’t going to become a big threat any time soon. On the other hand, there’s China, with a GDP about 9 times that of Russia and 314 million men fit for military service…perhaps China might be a bigger worry? You know, given the number of men they can put under arms just about equals our population? Given that they are challenging our supremacy in the western Pacific and the South China Sea? Given that they have said that their national policy is to displace us? Maybe we should be a little more concerned about China?

Naw, can’t have that – too many of our largest corporations and banks are heavily invested in China. Conflict with China would be bad for business – theirs, not ours. Doesn’t really help us that cheap consumer goods are made in China…does help the Chinese and the corporations which invest there, of course…and, so, Russia’s the bad guy…China’s just this thing, and if you please ignore the fact that they are engaged in building a blue water Navy specifically to challenge us, that would be great.

It has been my conviction for many years now that if WWIII ever comes, it will start in Asia, not in Europe. I doubt the Europeans will even involve themselves in World War Three, if they could in any way scurry out of it. The battle will be between the United States and China, and whatever allies each can gather. We’ve got Japan and South Korea because they’ve got no choice – and when push comes to shove, we’ll probably have India, as well. But it would be tremendously useful for us if at least a good portion of China’s military force is looking over it’s should, to the north – to Russia, that is. And, of course, Russia can’t hold on to Siberia without our aid.

Now, I don’t like Putin, either – but he’s also not forever. And foreign policy can’t be dictated by personalities – it always has to be dictated by interests. Right now, Putin sees his chance to cobble together a bit of the old Russian Empire – our weakness is his chance. But think about what he’s doing – he’s grabbing those border areas which are largely Russian in population. He’s also working out plans and programs to get Russia’s population increased via natural means (there’s even a move to ban abortion in Russia). Putin is trying to get together as much manpower as he can – just in case of war, when Russia will need every soldier it can put into uniform. Russians, for instance, make up 17% of Ukraine’s population – about 8 million people, or about 800,000 males fit for military service. Having those Russians in Ukraine does Russia not the least bit of good – having them in Russia, does. As it turns out, most of the Russians live in precisely the areas of Ukraine where Putin is exerting military force on the sly. You don’t have to like it – but you should at least understand why it’s happening.

Our interests lie in keeping China boxed in – a China able to rampage over the world represents a threat that Germany and Japan, combined, didn’t represent in 1941. With their population and industrial base – a lot of it formerly our industrial base, before we outsourced it – gives them the ability to wage war on many fronts simultaneously. Our foreign policy job is to make sure that if China ever decides to try conclusions with us that they are, indeed, forced to fight on many fronts. On the seas with us, on land with India – and Russia. And Vietnam, and South Korea, and Japan…and anyone else we can convince to go along with us. In point of fact, India would provide sufficient manpower to completely overbalance China…but India has no easy way to attack China on land – they’d have to go through the Himalayas, an almost impossible task. Russia, though, has easy access to the very heart of China (China has the same to Russian Siberia). In a real war – a World War – a American-Russian-Indian army poised around Lake Baikal is a deadly threat to China…the sort of thing which keeps China from getting into Southeast Asia, or the Philippines.

Don’t give me nonsense about a Russian threat to the United States – they have nukes, but that is about it. On their own, they don’t dare attack us. Eventually, Russia will see that playing around with China just to irritate us is the wrong path…and, in fact, they probably know it and are only doing it to keep us off their back while they re-absorb those former parts of the Russian Empire they think they need. As long as Russia isn’t rolling into Poland, or taking Kiev, I’m not particularly worried about what they are doing. I don’t care, that is, if they absorb some territory largely populated by Russians and only set in non-Russian territory by Stalin as a means to retain control of the various “republics” which made up the old USSR. At the end of the day, Russia will want to hold on to Siberia and the only way they can do that against China – the only nation which covets Siberia – is in alliance with us. An alliance that they and we need…not that we care about Russian rule in Siberia, but we do care about making sure that China, desiring war, is instantly confronted with the fact of war in the north as well as everywhere else. It is essentially a revival of the old policy of Churchill vis a vis Nazi Germany – bind together the lesser States surrounding Germany so that any German attack would result in an overwhelming force being brought against Germany from all directions. No one wanted to do that, and so Hitler was able to pick off enemies one by one…China will do the same, unless we construct a new set of alliances to counter it.

One thing you can be certain about in world affairs is change – it’s always breaking apart and coming together in new combinations. Hanging fast to NATO as if Russia is still poised to burst through the Fulda Gap in central Germany is absurd. I can’t imagine a set of circumstances which move Russia to invade central and western Europe. I also can’t imagine a set of circumstances which would see a British army come to our assistance as we tried to repel a Chinese attack on Japan…and Britain is a solid ally; as for France and Germany, they’d probably be selling China military material and demanding we don’t sink their ships transporting it to China! These are new times, with new issues – and trying to jam them into the times of 50 years ago won’t work. We need, as in all things, to think anew and act anew…and giving up the Russian bugbear and turning our full attention to China is one of them. We also need new policies towards Iran, but even that is a lesser threat than China, in the long run.

China is the challenge – we must rework our trade with China so that we’re not longer helping them build the industrial sinews to war with us. We must rebuild our own industrial strength so that if we have to go to war, we’ve got at least most of what we need right here in the USA. We need a new system of alliances geared towards modern challenges. We need a much larger Navy, a much larger Air Force. We need to be working on ever more advanced military technologies so that we can outgun a China we won’t be able to out-man. We need, first and foremost, to shake free of the geo-political shackles of the past. This isn’t 1956 – it’s 2016.

Can 2016 Get Any More 2016-ish?

Mark Noonan51 Comments

I’m sure we’ve all heard that FBI Director Comey is re-opening the investigation into Hillary Clinton. Apparently this is due to information unearthed in the investigation of Anthony Weiner, the soon-to-be-ex of Hillary’s particular aide, Huma Abedin. None of us know what, precisely, is being uncovered and Democrats are in a panic trying to downplay it all, but the bottom line, for me, is that the FBI wouldn’t do this unless the matter was quite serious.

What effect will this have on the election? Impossible to know – but polls have been tightening all week (one poll which had Hillary up 12 has her up 4, now…that’s quite a crash in just a few days). Will this push Hillary support over the edge? Or was her support already ebbing away? Or has Trump’s support been surging? There are reports that GOPers, faced with the stark reality of President Hillary Clinton, are coming home to Trump. I read a report which claims that Hillary is going up on the air in Wisconsin while Trump is re-entering Virginia. Is Trump just doing a head-fake? Perhaps…but if Hillary does have to fight for Wisconsin, then things out there are not what we were lead to believe even just a few days ago.

Incomplete results of Nevada’s first week of early voting show an overall Democrat lead of 151,000 to 122,000 over the GOP…but with 69,000 “other” also having voted. If that breaks for Trump – and it should, Indys do tend to support Trump over Hillary – then the Dems lead is rather small…and may vanish in week 2. We’ll have to see.

I have to admit I’ve been laughing all day over these developments. It will be the perfect action of hubris and nemesis if Hillary is brought low due to the actions of another woman’s husband.

Weekend Open Thread

Mark Noonan26 Comments

Lots of information out there saying Hillary has it in the bag, lots of information out there saying that things might not be as they seem. Not least of which is the GOP’s still-solid shot at retaining the Senate; with 24 seats to defend in a Presidential election year, that shouldn’t really be in the realm of possibility. Given that Trump has not caused a complete down-ballot melt-down, I’m suspecting that a lot of rock-solid predictions are mere wish-casting. It could well be a Hillary landslide, but it could also be a Trump landslide. At this point in 1980 there was no solid indication of a Reagan landslide. I think we’re going to have to vote and then just see what happens. But I am planning at least some CNN/MSNBC watching for election night…

It ain’t crazy talk to discuss Trump’s chances of winning.

I said years ago that the Age of Science is ended – we are entering a new Dark Age. The Progressives who read that article didn’t understand it in the least…but that is mostly because Progressives abandoned Reason many years ago. We religious people with our weird beliefs have retained Reason, however. Long article here on how “science” is getting it flat wrong – but that is because it isn’t really science. The scientific method traces itself back to monks in the Middle Ages who, believing in Catholic theology, understood the world to be the deliberate creation of a rational Being, and thus it could be understood by observation and experiment. If you ever wondered why it was Europeans who first developed practical applications for a steam engine (a concept well known to people for a very long time), then look no further than this – Reason being applied to the natural world. But, take away the Reason – start to believe that there is no absolute truth, that is – and you cut the cord which allows you to understand the natural world. And, so, absurdities like assertions that eggs – which human beings have eaten since the dawn of humanity – are bad for you. Lot of other nonsense like that, too.

Everyone realizes that we’re currently engaged in five wars, right? And not really winning any of them. I doubt that 1 in 10 Americans could identify them – and this is precisely because the MSM, in service of Hillary and the Democrats, has decided not to talk about them…because talking about them cuts against Hillary and the Democrats. There never has been unbiased media – but used to be, we had media for all sides of the political spectrum. It was the professionalization of media which killed media variety – once colleges started to churn out people with degrees in journalism, the game was up…because the media would naturally just become what the journalism professors wanted it to be…and, as it turns out, almost all of them were Progressive. This does need to be brought to an end – but it will take billions of dollars and the creation of entirely new, parallel media.

Dilbert creator Scott Adams endorses Trump – mostly because he’s nauseated with Team Clinton. If you don’t mind a Catholic homily, here is what is decisive in my 2016 vote. You might not be Catholic – but give it a listen.

A bunch of redneck, kook ranchers defied the Federal Government, got arrested and taken to trial…and the jury acquitted them all.

Arizona gets a 116% Obamacare premium increase…but, yeah, Trump’s vulgar so let’s give it all to Hillary.

Nonsense Vs Common Sense

Mark Noonan123 Comments

Some years ago I used to comment on a particular blog – I eventually stopped because the owner of the blog got mad at a comment I made and put me on a sort of suspension…which I wasn’t about to put up with, so I just stopped going there. The issue at hand was that in a discussion of the French Revolution, I had pointed out that a great deal of what brought it about was not so much a desire for liberté, égalité, fraternité but, instead, a desire on the part of French bankers to get repaid for loans they had made to the government. Trouble was, the government really didn’t have the money to repay…but sitting just over there, helping to prop up the overall government and social system of France, was the French Catholic Church, owning at least 10% of all wealth in France. Too big a target to pass up – but getting that money required a major change in how France was governed.

To be sure, there were a lot of things needing deep reform in French government – and this was readily conceded by just about everyone from the King on down…and so the calling of the états généraux precisely to get reform done. But the King felt he could not alter the fundamental structure of French society – which included the French Church being largely outside the control of the government and continuing to possess it’s wealth and property. In the end, no one was going to go to the barricades under a slogan to despoil the Church so that the bankers could get repaid – and, so, liberté, égalité, fraternité. All quickly hijacked by people like Robespierre who did have definite ideas of what they wanted – even if a lot of people had to be killed to get there. As it was, the people of France didn’t really want that, either…but they got both (despoiled Church and guillotines); mostly because someone who wasn’t The People (experts, as it were) decided it should be so. At all events, by speaking the apparent heresy that it wasn’t, perhaps, just a spontaneous revolt of the people, I got into trouble. I had, it would seem, questioned the wisdom of experts on the matter. I don’t know what makes a person an expert on the French Revolution – after all, the only thing we can do is read about it and then decide for ourselves what it all meant. I had read about it for a long, long time from a wide variety of sources and it just suddenly struck me one day that in addition to helping to finance the Parisian mobs, the bankers were quick to get the National Assembly to nationalize Church property and pass the cash along to the bankers.

I bring this up because over the course of this year I’ve been hearing again and again that the problem with the Trumpsters is that they simply don’t know what they are talking about. They don’t realize that easy immigration and free trade are good for America. They don’t realize that their little communities are doomed and so they’ll just have to suck it up, move away and find something else to do. They don’t realize, most importantly, that those who have expertise simply know better and thus they should just accept leadership from the experts. I’d like to point out at this juncture that the experts have one thing in common pretty much across all human societies – they are almost invariably wrong when they step outside their area of expertise.

No lesson seems to be so deeply inculcated by the experience of life as that you should never trust experts. If you believe the doctors, nothing is wholesome: if you believe the theologians, nothing is innocent: if you believe the soldiers, nothing is safe. They all require to have their strong wine diluted by a very large admixture of common sense. – Robert Cecil, 3rd Marquess Salisbury, Prime Minister of Great Britain

Experts do have their place. When I want a tooth out, I go to a dentist – an expert in removing teeth. When I want the sink fixed, I go to a plumber – an expert in plumbing. If I want a war fought, I go to a general – an expert in moving men and material around. If I want to decide whether or not I should go to the dentist, get a plumber or fight a war, then I go to myself. I think it over and make the decision that appears best to me. I’d no more allow someone to decide for me how I should view such matters than I’d allow someone to decide for me if I should get married.

The trouble with our experts is that they presume their expertise in a narrow field means they have a general expertise applying to all facets of human life. A really good example is Noam Chomsky, winner of the Nobel Prize in Linguistics. Clearly a brilliant man (though some of his ideas have come into question of late). If I wanted some advice on linguistics, I’d be at the man’s feet, waiting for his wisdom. But Chomsky doesn’t seem to do much in linguistics of late – but he does seem to spend a great deal of time commenting on every subject under the sun. That, itself, wouldn’t be a bad thing, but we are told we are to hold his views on non-linguistic matters in awe because he’s a brilliant linguist. Sorry, ain’t happening. At least not as far as I’m concerned. His views on foreign policy are no better than mine – Nobel Prize notwithstanding. If he says something on that subject, I’ll listen to it and give it as much consideration as any other view…and if it doesn’t fit in with what I believe to be correct, I’ll discard his views.

And here’s the kicker – you really can’t get expertise on things which are not of some sort of mechanic art. Once again, we know a good dentist because the actions of his dentistry have good results. No matter how many degrees a person has in economics, foreign policy, etc. we can’t be sure that the person has got it right – even if it appears right for a while, later events still might falsify his views and actions. You can’t falsify the fact that after the drilling and filling my cavity is cured. Well educated, brave, dedicated and experienced commanders still managed to allow the Battle of the Bulge to happen. Because even being an expert soldier is not the same as being an expert dentist. It isn’t purely mechanical – it is something subject to an unlimited number of variables which cannot all be foreseen even in the best of circumstances. To flat out assert to me, for instance, that free trade is always a good thing is to assert impossible knowledge – you can’t possibly know all the variables involved and thus while these three free trade deals worked out just fine, the fourth one might be an utter disaster.

Other than mechanic arts, each thing has to be taken or rejected on it’s apparent merits or demerits. And in deciding if it’s good or bad, the yokel in a barbecue joint in Akron might be right while the professor in the Ivy League is wrong. The only difference is that, hopefully, the professor has some additional knowledge to provide which might help the yokel make a better decision…but the yokel must be consulted and must participate in the decision-making process. To exclude him on the grounds that he lacks specialized knowledge is to pretty much ensure that the wrong decisions will be made – because the decision will be made without that “very large admixture of common sense”. At the end of the day, additionally, it is better to go with the yokel’s views than the expert’s because yokel has at least a shot at understanding how the decision might effect him and those like him…the common run of humanity who ultimately pay all the bills – in blood and treasure – for a nation’s decisions. This is especially true as the professor, in his rarefied atmosphere, might have got his head stuffed with a lot of nonsense…for instance, he might have a Marxist view of things, and this would pretty much ensure that anything he believes is at 180 degrees variance from reality (how a guy who never worked a day in his life gets to be the arbiter of what working people want is just beyond my understanding).

The revolt of the Trumpsters – and the revolt of the BLMers – is not a revolt of the stupid against the smart, but of common sense against nonsense. It is people who, while inarticulate and uninformed on many matters (and thus getting some things wrong), yet understand that what is happening to them in their daily lives just isn’t right. To try and tell them that things will get right if they just shut up and do as they’re told is probably not going to move them. In fact, it will probably just make them more angry.

We do live in an age of experts – set up that way by experts. It all started, really, back during the Woodrow Wilson Administration but didn’t get set in stone until FDR…when the government proposed to manage the economy for the benefit of all. Experts would do it – people who had gone to college and got degrees in economics and such would take over and make sure things worked. That they failed utterly didn’t seem to dismay them, at all. They lucked out – World War Two happened and then the post-WWII population boom, which allowed for a massive increase in global wealth which made it appear that the experts were on to something. Vietnam started to disabuse people of this notion – that was the experts war from start to finish. They were going to manage that war so that we’d get victory quickly and on the cheap and without having to disturb people in their daily lives here at home. It didn’t work out that way and the first doubts among regular folks appeared…but so embedded in power were the experts that they’ve managed to keep it going, now apparently joined even by some on the right who also got college degrees and a growing mistrust of the people.

It is a mistrust I don’t share. I don’t dislike the unwashed masses. Even when I hear what are massively mis-informed views being expressed, I’m not dismayed. The Trumpsters and the BLMers get some things very wrong. I don’t think the way to deal with this is to read them out of the community of people. They are our people, folks – our fellow Americans. And they have a right to speak their minds, and we have a responsibility to listen to them. And I think by listening to them we might find that we, ourselves, are corrected. This nation is in a gigantic mess – it took us more than 100 years to get into this mess and all of us bear some responsibility for making the mess. It will take the efforts of all of us to get us out of the mess…and anyone who is absolutely dismissive of others simply won’t be able to participate. Even the most obtuse – whether a Marxist professor or a pub-patriot – must be allowed to participate. It is the only way we can do this. But one very necessary step will be for the “experts” to climb off their high horse and start listening…once a bit of listening has gone on, then there will be a better ability to explain to those who do know less, and perhaps do need some guidance to the correct path.

This Weird Year

Mark Noonan30 Comments

So, the Mrs and a good friend went to early vote here; two entirely different locations. No biggie – it’s still nearly 3 weeks before election day, but might as well get it out of the way. It isn’t out of the way – they both came across hour-long lines to vote. Just to put it into perspective here, folks: this was on a balmy Saturday afternoon…and people were lined up to vote.

Why line up to vote? There’s plenty of time to vote – all the way until November 8th. Unless you’re leaving town tomorrow and won’t be back until the 9th, why bother if there’s any wait, at all? But people were bothering. Lots of them. Who are they voting for? No idea, of course. Now, ask yourself, who is more likely to generate enough excitement to convince someone to wait in line on a beautiful Saturday afternoon for an hour to vote? You can make your own guesses. I’ve made mine. We’ll all see on November 8th.

Almost everyone is in a bubble this year. Trumpsters. HillBots. Beltway Conservatives. I don’t think anyone really knows what is going on – but they keep yammering on as if they do. I have decided to come through to November 9th with the certainty of no egg on my face. It’s an easy trick to do – all you have to do is admit ignorance. I’ve seen the predictions for a Hillary Landslide and a Trump Landslide and everything in between. But no one really knows. It isn’t a matter of “the polls may be wrong” – given that we have polls showing everything from a 12 point Hillary lead to a 2 point Trump lead, at least some of the polls are definitely wrong. I’ve seen State polls come out within a day of each other showing 180 degree difference in the direction of the race. Supposedly, the pollsters are calling the same population and should generally come up with the same result – but, they aren’t. The problem, I think, is that the electorate is in flux…rich people who normally vote GOP are flooding into Democrat ranks, while working class people who normally vote Democrat are on fire for Trump…and the joker in the deck is rare- and never-voters. Some indicators are out there that the number of Independents in some Battle Ground States have massively grown in numbers. Grown in numbers to vote for Hillary or Trump? No one can possibly know.

I refuse the bubble. I’ve even started closely following some Progressive Twitter accounts – they are often more interesting than the Conservative accounts this year because all too often those accounts are just yelling at each other over Trump. The depth of Progressive dislike of Hillary, by the way, is astonishing. I do expect them to pull the lever for Hillary because Trump, for most of them, is very much a bridge too far…but you just watch what happens in 2017 if Hillary does win…there’s going to be a Progressive revolt in the Democrat ranks because Hillary, especially if she has a GOP Congress, won’t be able to bring about the sort of Progressive policies they are demanding. The sort of revolt we’ve seen against the GOP leadership is brewing now on the left against the Democrat leadership. And more power to them – I don’t see why they should continually put up with Democrats who talk a great game of bashing the banks and then take $250,000.00 speaking fees from them.

In the United States and around the world, the post-WWII consensus is crumbling. As long as people felt financially secure, all was well – but now people don’t feel all that secure, and so all bets are off. Trump might not duplicate the Bexit result, but the fact that he’s even in the mix shows that American politics isn’t what is used to be. He’s said a dozen thing which, had anyone said them even 4 years ago, would result in him being down 20 points in the RCP averages by now. Even if the reality is a 6 point Hillary lead as RCP indicates, then that shows how close to the edge of destruction the Establishment is. They might well drag granny across the finish line this year, but it will be at the cost of losing the last of their credibility with the people…and that is right and left. And if the average folks of the left and right ever figure out that, ultimately, their problem is the same group of people, then look out.

Unlike many who appear to be in agony over this election, I’m not. I’m quite happy and content. I’m going to vote and then just see what happens. No matter what the result, you won’t see my shocked face. You will see my happy face if Hillary loses – but that will mostly be because of the sweet satisfaction of seeing that grifter couple brought low. But if Hillary wins, you won’t see my sad face – I’m too familiar with history to see anything but destruction ahead for the people who would make a Hillary victory. They don’t see it, of course – some how or another they expect that this fake money, debt-ridden, low-growth economy can just keep going, and that no matter how nauseatingly corrupt they are, they’ll never be turned out. The Bourbons thought that, too.

The votes are there to turn them out, right now. It’s just a question of when they will coalesce to do so. This year? 2020? 2024? Eventually, it will happen. One thing that is very clear to me is that both Trumpsters and BLM have genuine reasons for complaint. Both of them miss some very important things, and that’s a pity. But the bottom line is that the system sucks for poor and working class people – BLMers are still looking to the Progressives who created the problems, while the Trumpsters are going after a man who talks the talk, but no one has any idea if he’ll walk the walk. It is forgotten these days that Reagan won by cobbling together a coalition of Conservatives and Populists against the GOP Establishment for the primaries and then the overall Establishment for the general election. Since Reagan, however, Conservatism has tried to step away from the people…to argue things out on issues, rather than on underlying philosophy. This has led Conservatism to be a bizarre defense of low corporate taxes while the people lose their jobs and homes and the Constitution is steadily shredded. Someone is eventually going to figure out how to properly tap into the frustrations out there and build a winning coalition. Trump still has his chance to do it – but if he doesn’t, you just watch Rubio or Rand Paul or some such do it. People expecting Rubio to slam Trumpsters and become Romney 3.0 for 2020 are simply not paying attention. There’s a reason for his refusal to break with Trump even as he cruises to a now-easy re-election. The reason is that he’s smart – he knows that if he ever wants to enter the White House (and I believe he does, very much) then he’s going to need the Trumpsters…meaning, he’s going to need some of those angry poor and working class people who have flocked to Trump’s standard this year. And if that means shedding a few traditional Conservatives on the side, he’ll do it.

We’ll all know soon enough how this year goes. I’ll end by saying that if we Conservatives want to be relevant then the time is not right for purges, but for figuring out how to ride the wave of political re-alignment.

The Great Debate Open Thread

Mark Noonan88 Comments

First, from IBD which has Trump up by 1:

By gender, Clinton does much better among women — 47% to 37% — but Trump’s lead among men is just as strong at 47% to 32%. Trump does better among parents (46% to 32%), married women (44% to 41%), lower-class households (53% to 37%), and the religious, among whom Clinton’s support never tops 38%. Among those who express no religion, Clinton handily beats Trump 63% to 16%.

The fact that Trump is crushing it among lower-class households is a warning sign for Democrats – even if they win this one, they are getting in to a situation where they have no backup if their core voters abandon them. This is akin to the position the GOP was in where we only won as long as we kept certain groups happy (for us, it was suburban voters). We’re one financial crash away from Democrats losing everything. Meanwhile, most other polling (other than Rasmussen and LA Times) shows this race a walk-over for Hillary. My thinking – Hillary’s support is a mile wide right now, but an inch deep. If Trump can find a convincing argument for why people should vote for him – and stick to it without being distracted for even just a week – then he could still pull this off.

Malik Obama – the President’s half-brother – wants to Make America Great Again.

People are very much keying in on the amount of Anti-Semitism bubbling up in some areas of the right this year – but less examined is the rising Anti-Semitism of the left. At least Trump can say kind things about Israel and not risk any substantial support…Hillary’s people were worried that even mentioning Israel might be problematic. As the linked article states, Hillary is likely to be less hostile to Israel than Obama has been (and this is in keeping with my view that neither Trump nor Hillary can be as bad as Obama has been), but the bottom line is that, for Democrats, there isn’t much upside in being friendly to Israel…and as the left wallows ever more deeply in things like BDS, there is a risk that supporting Israel in the future will become an entirely GOP thing. Small wonder that Israel is reaching out to places like India and Russia…

Proof that some people keep in the public eye way too long after their sell-by date.

O’Keefe’s videos showing Clinton skullduggery were absolutely nothing – but, they went ahead and fired the guy anyway.

Some Odds and Ends

Mark Noonan17 Comments

You can have Rules or Rulers, a wise man once said – meaning that you can either live by dogma, or you can live by the whim of a King. Take your pick – I prefer dogmas, myself.

A GOP office in North Carolina was fire bombed. Naturally, some Progs are thinking GOPers did it, themselves.

Know about the war in Somalia? Of course not – doesn’t fit the Obama Narrative. But, we are intensifying our effort in that war.

In October of 2008, a month before the election, the Democrats’ corporate paymasters had already settled on Obama’s cabinet. There is a bit of an internal battle among Democrats about how things will be divvied up in a Clinton Administration – hate to break it to you, earnest Progressive friends, but Democrats do not push back against those who write the checks.

Victor Davis Hanson lays out the modern medievalism of the United States. He notes that the modern medievalism lacks the saving grace of a deep, religious belief to provide a counter to despotism. I’ll never want to get too far into an argument with someone like Hanson – but the fact of life is that the Middle Ages were not so much an age of despotism as we moderns tend to think. Yes, people had a lot of duties to perform…but taxes took up a far smaller percentage of income than today and a person was free from relentless propaganda.

The Washington Post is convinced that Hillary has already won. So have most experts. Polling almost uniformly confirms this view. Except for the much-maligned LA Times Poll (currently showing a 0.6% Trump lead). Thing is, the Washington Post poll released yesterday pretty much has the race the same as it did in mid-September – Hillary ahead by 4; the Washington Post poll, in my experience, has always been a bit favorable for the Democrats (just as the Rasmussen poll very often favors Republicans). The spread in that poll is D+8 – but that is not as important as the fact that after a month of Team Hillary dropping nuclear Oppo on Trump, the race hasn’t changed much. In fact, none of the national polling I’ve seen actually shows much change over the past month. But, still, it almost all gives the advantage to Hillary – so, she’s the next President. As I said, only if Trump shakes up the normal electorate can he win…and such an shake up would not necessarily show up in polling. The LA Times says they have figured out how the electorate has been shaken up in 2016 and thus they stand by their polling – and Sean Trende notes that there is some reason for their confidence: the LA Times poll – called the Rand poll in the past – was dead-on in 2012. Of course, Trende also note that past performance is no guarantee of future results. My view – Hillary has the institutional advantage and by all traditional measures is the next President. And thank goodness that people are just in love with our institutions in this oh, so very traditional year.

UPDATE: the RCP average shows Clinton up by 7 – it’s over. Trump is heading for a crushing loss. So, has the LA Times poll gone along? Nope: Trump is now up 1.6 points in that poll. Just weird – and I guess we won’t know for sure until 11/8. If you’re betting money, lay it on Hillary…but maybe make a side bet on Trump.

UPDATE II: I’ve been a Republican since I became an adult. My first ballot was cast in 1988 – I could have voted in ’84, of course, but I was overseas in the Navy and absentee balloting wasn’t much of a thing back then; certainly not for a 19 year old squid. I did some volunteer work for George H W Bush in 1988 – but I had to reach out to volunteer. I’ve donated a few times to various GOP campaigns, but I think my last time was in ’04 (though I may have donated a bit in ’06 – but whatever I’ve done in the past 12 years, it wasn’t much). Other than that 1988 thing, I’ve never done any volunteer work. So, while Republican I’m pretty much off the radar – certainly haven’t donated this year either to the GOP, GOP candidates or Donald Trump. So, much to my surprise, I get a phone call today from the Trump campaign asking if I’d like to volunteer.

I’ve read several bits from GOPers swearing that they’ve got this Cracker Jack GOTV for November – something which will do wonders. I’ve doubted it – and all reports are that Team Trump and the overall GOP are going to be skunked by Team Hillary and the DNC in GOTV efforts. Me getting a call today makes me wonder if that will really be the case.

Weekend Open Thread

Mark Noonan17 Comments

So, why the Nuclear Oppo Dump on Trump this week? Perhaps because of the news that 100,000 PA Democrats have switched to the GOP this past year? Now, to be sure, about 38,000 GOPers switched to Democrats, but that is still pretty bad news. Meanwhile, the PA GOP says that, in total, the GOP has signed up 243,139 since November of last year. The bad news? Given what Romney won in 2012 in PA, that would not be quite enough…if Hillary does as well as Obama overall. If. Big freaking IF. Oh, Trump back in the lead in Ohio.

A peak at what a Hillary Presidency would be like after she appoints a few Justices – Venezuela’s Supreme Court just ruled that the President can write his own budget.

If you like your freedoms, you can keep your freedoms – Feingold caught on tape stating that Hillary would use executive orders to curb gun rights. But, yeah, way more important to stop Trump ’cause he’s gross and all that…

Some like to think that if we had nominated Rubio, all would be well. I grant that smearing Rubio would have been more difficult than smearing Trump…but the Democrats would have done it anyway.

Always remember, the Democrats and the MSM don’t have to tell the truth – there is no power in this land which can make them tell the truth and there is no desire on their part that the truth be told.

Why, yes, Hillary does support taxpayer funded abortion on demand. Why? Because she has to – all senior Democrats must bow before the abortion lobby…

Former President of Haitian Senate calls the Clintons common thieves.

Podesta thinks he can get us backwards Catholics to change. He’s wrong. It doesn’t work like that – the Catholic Church just waits you out. Been around 2,000 years. Lot of changes during that time, folks – still the same, old Church.