Love and Peace South Carolina Primary Weekend Soft Fuzzy Bunnies Open Thread

Mark Noonan54 Comments

Been a lot of grief these last couple weeks – so, my thread title should fix that right up. Right?

Oh, well – as least I tried.

Anyways…

Yet more on the Hillary scandal(s) – as I said, she won’t get indicted. Obama just won’t allow that…but the more of this that comes out, the more likely Hillary won’t get elected…and may not even get the nomination. If you think a GOP brokered convention would be a clusterfark, you ain’t seen nothing…if the Dems have one, it will be downright insane. Just imagine all the varied and conflicting Dem interest groups demanding a seat at the table…

Allahpundit does a bit more Romney ’16 trolling – in a confused and broken world, it’s good to have some things we can rely on.

Jeb is going to lose very badly in South Carolina tomorrow – and his donors are getting ready to bail out. Over to Rubio? Time will tell…

Liberals coming up with more excuses to dump Hillary.

Foreign policy: it’s bad. It needs to be fixed. Unless we get a 9/11 style attack on the USA between now and November, I don’t think it’ll play a role in the election.

College – a place where you rack up 30k in debt and come out knowing less than a 12 year old did 40 years ago.

Remember when America had talent?

Trump vs Pope

Mark Noonan18 Comments

Just wanted to get this out there – the Pope did not say we can’t build a wall…he just said, correctly, that if all you’re about is building a wall, you’re doing it wrong.

It must be kept in mind that the Catholic Church is neither left nor right – it can’t be. The Church, being universal, contains all…a deep concern with the poor as well as a deep concern that people be allowed to hold their own property. And it goes on and on like that on the issues.

Trump, however, decided to lash out – stupidly. Oh, I’m sure it will delight that element of the American population which retains an anti-Catholic animus, but the bottom line is that the Pope did nothing to Trump…just pointed out that if all Trump is about is building a wall (and for a lot of his supporters, that is all Trump is about), then Trump is flat wrong…and I’ve held that position for nearly 9 years now. Border security is a must – but there must also be accommodation for those who are here and for those who wish to come here. People can disagree endlessly about this, but getting in a fight with the Pope for being Catholic is absurd.

The Trump Plan

Mark Noonan27 Comments

No, not his plan to Make America Great Again – there’s no real details on that. Deliberately – it is an excellent and effective advertising slogan into which everyone can pour whatever mental content they like. What I’m talking about is Trump’s plan to win.

When I wake up in the morning, the first thing I do is click on the TV – which is set to the local news because right around wake-up time is the time they do the weather forecast, thus allowing me to plan, weather-wise, my day. After watching that, I click over to the national news to make certain the world didn’t blow up in the night…usually, this is about 30 seconds because (a) if the world blew up it would be right there and (b) I can’t take more than 30 seconds of national news mindlessness at a time. But this morning the news was showing Trump at some sort of town hall event – I watched through two questions.

The first question was about the life issue – apparently originating from a couple Catholic guys, one of whom is a priest: once and for all, are you pro-life or pro-choice? Boom, goes Donald – “I’m pro-life”; then a bit of attacks on Cruz for questioning Trump’s pro-life credentials.

The second question was about Social Security – what will you do to save it? Trump’s answer – I’m going to make the economy so strong that we can fund it forever; I’ll never cut it or raise the retirement age; every other candidate will cut it; remember Paul Ryan? They had him pushing granny off a cliff in a wheelchair, they won’t be able to do that to me.

Trump didn’t provide any details, at all – but he said precisely what a winning electoral coalition wants to hear.

Make no mistake about it, the GOP has a disadvantage on Social Security – relentless Democrat lies have convinced a large number of people that in some way, the GOP wants to cut benefits to current Social Security recipients. Don’t doubt this – I personally know such people. That Social Security is a hideously bad program which doesn’t provide near what a privatized retirement plan could provide is neither here nor there: for tens of millions of people, it is all they have for retirement and even the slightest hint of risk to the program gives them a sinking feeling in their gut…and makes them, in the end, vote Democrat just to be sure. Donald Trump just laid down an immovable marker – he won’t cut it in any way, shape or form. Hillary tries to attack him with that, he’ll be able to smack down such talk and be convincing about it. Elderly voters already trend GOP…Romney won 56% of their votes in 2012…but Trump, by being absolutely firm on this, could increase the GOP share of the elderly a significant amount.

Trump is now officially pro-life, but he’s no Holy Joe and he’s never been involved in the fight over abortion, and thus hasn’t built up any “hate factor” on either side. The United States is becoming a more pro-life nation all the time, so being pro-life, aside from being crucial in the GOP primary, is in tune with the broad majority of the American people…who, though, still in their majority don’t want an actual end to abortion, at least in the early part of a pregnancy. Given the nature of Trump, a “War on Women” campaign against him would probably roll off…and do keep in mind that 21% of professed Pro-Life people voted for Obama in 2012, which is an absurdity…Trump could pull even more Pro-Life people into the GOP voting booth.

What this all boils down to me is that Trump, by keeping it vague but firmly on the side of the vast majority of the American people (gotta protect SS; you know, it is just better to be Pro-Life, etc), his plan is to win the GOP nomination and the Presidency by sheer out-appealing everyone else. Trump is not looking for wedge issues to divide the electorate and pick up just enough of it to secure victory (a long-standing Democrat tactic which the GOP has never been effective at) – Trump is looking to convince a gigantic majority that he’s for them.

Whether or not he can do it remains to be seen – just as it remains to be seen what, precisely, he’d do as President. But if he can do it, then he’s not only going to be the GOP nominee, but he’s going to utterly crush the Democrats in November.

I’m still hopeful that Cruz or Rubio can somehow stop him – but time is rapidly running out and I’ve yet to see them hit Trump where it would actually hurt…in the fact that he’s a rich man. Trump is rich, Hillary is rich – attack the rich. Go full-blast after corporations, rich people, the use of money by the Establishment to twist things. Still might not work, but hitting Trump on the fact that he used to be pro-choice or that he’s not a true conservative won’t get you anywhere…people don’t care about that. They are disgusted with business as usual and are searching – in both Democrat and GOP ranks – for whomever seems most likely to be a political hand grenade in DC. Just as in 2008 the whole exercise was to find the politician who was least like George Bush, so 2016 is all about finding the politician who is least like a politician. Hence, Trump.

I will never be a Trump supporter – because Trump, bottom line, is just another Progressive…a more patriotic variety of Progressive than we’ve seen for some decades. There used to be a lot of them, you know? Teddy Roosevelt was one, for instance. If he becomes President, I’ll support anything he does which actually works towards Conservatism, oppose anything he does which doesn’t. But if we in the GOP don’t want to have a Progressive, Patriotic Trump as President, then we’d better get our act together very fast…and that really means Cruz and Rubio getting their acts together.

Understanding the Left/Right Divide: Truth and Lies

Mark Noonan18 Comments

This is actually one of the easier things to get hold of. The divide here is between Progressives who don’t believe in objective truth, and Conservatives who do.

Donald Trump caused a bit of a ruckus during the recent GOP debate when he opined that former President Bush lied to get us into Iraq. This, of course, was a standard talking-point of the left – “Bush lied, people died”. A host of reasons were put forth for just why President Bush lied, but the absolute assertion, regardless of reason, is that he lied. A lie, of course, is this: a deliberate misstatement of fact, or a withholding of vital information about your plans. If you believe that Fred is at the store, but Fred is actually at the bar, then you making a statement that Fred is at the store isn’t a lie. If, however, you know that Fred is at the bar and you tell someone he’s at the store, then you have lied. The difference is not in the information related but in the intent on your part – are you trying to deceive someone? If you are, then you are lying. If you aren’t, then you aren’t lying even if the facts you relate are 100% incorrect. If you say you want to borrow $100 and imply that the $100 will be to feed the kids, but you blow $50 of it at the track, then you have also lied – you failed to tell your lender just what your full plans were; and revelation of a trip to the track might well have convinced your lender not to lend you the money.

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Justice Scalia, RIP

Matt Margolis63 Comments

I can’t even.

Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia, the intellectual cornerstone of the court’s modern conservative wing, whose elegant and acidic opinions inspired a movement of legal thinkers and ignited liberal critics, died Feb. 13 on a ranch near Marfa, Tex. He was 79.

The cause of death was not immediately known.

Naturally, there’s a lot of talk about what happens next.

 

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell released a statement:

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Let’s hope he means it.

Here’s my spiel.

Democrats are responsible for some of the most shameless obstruction of judicial nominees. Honestly, this is the Supreme Court we’re talking about here, so if the Senate GOP needs to obstruct a SCOTUS nominee of lame duck Obama, I am all for it… but they do have the votes to let the process move forward and simply vote down Obama nominees until he either nominates an acceptable nominee (unlikely) or is no longer in office.

Out and About on a Weekend

Mark Noonan6 Comments

Various part of the GOP are starting to do opposition research on Bernie Sanders. As I always say, don’t pay attention to what people say, watch what they do. People would not expend the time and money to do this unless some serious political number-crunchers have found out that Bernie has a path to the nomination.

Related: far left coming up with excuses for ditching Hillary.

What to do in an active shooter situation:

I have watched training videos on what to do in the event of an active shooter situation, and they all focus on the Run/Hide/Fight principle. Run if you can, hide if running isn’t an option, and fight if options A and B fail. What you should not do is simply lay down and die, or hope that the attacker dies of a stroke, or sit passively and get murdered. And in every one of these training videos, if you get to the Fight stage, the video producer recognizes something very basic, very simple, and yet so important – arm yourself. Grab a chair, grab a stapler, grab a binder or a coffee pot. Grab whatever you can to inflict the maximum amount of damage on your attacker, because something is better than nothing. But you know what is better than something? The right tool for the job, that’s what. You can attack an active shooter with a coffee pot, if that’s all you have, but wouldn’t you rather have a rifle at that moment, as well as the training to use it properly? Of course, because it’s the right tool for the job.

There’s a surfer gang that keeps others away from surfing. Who knew?

Lunatic lefty politician and corrupt, political hack get into a fight. It is Grayson vs Reid: Pass the popcorn.

Democrats must be more worried about 2016 than we thought – the Maryland legislature has over-rode a veto and will ensure that about 44,000 felons are able to vote in Maryland this year.

So, About New Hampshire

Mark Noonan24 Comments

Biggest thing for me about it is that 42,000 fewer people participated in the Democrat primary than in 2008; the returns aren’t 100% yet, but my calculation is that about 245,000 people voted in the Democrat primary last night, in 2008 it was 287,000. That is a 15% decline – rather large. What is shows that the Democrats are not enthused about 2016 – and the Democrats need at least most of 2008’s enthusiasm to carry their nominee – still almost certain to be Hillary – over the finish line. Meanwhile, over on the GOP side, a bit more than 280,000 people participated, while in 2012 it was 248,000 – showing GOP enthusiasm is up. If this sort of turnout prevails over the primaries (and I suspect it will), then it will demonstrate that the Democrats are in deep trouble.

From what I’ve seen, Sanders didn’t just beat Hillary, he crushed her. But, will it matter? Next up is South Carolina where the Democrat electorate is heavily African-American and African-Americans have been Clinton loyalists since 1992 – with the exception of 2008. But was 2008 merely a reflection of running against Obama, or an indication that African-American loyalty to the Clinton’s isn’t as deep as people think? We’ll find out in South Carolina – if Sanders can peel away even 35% of the African-American primary vote from Hillary, then we might not have Hillary as the Democrat nominee. And that, actually, worries me a bit. I know that the official line is that Hillary is impervious but I’m starting to suspect she’s a loser – against any GOPer. Sanders, the Socialist, is allegedly the George McGovern of 2016…but with his populist, anti-Establishment credibility, he might actually be harder to beat, especially if the GOP nominates someone like Jeb or Kasich.

On the GOP side, the only remarkable thing for me was Cruz coming in strong third – he spent little time or resources in New Hampshire and did very well. Meanwhile, Jeb poured in resources and came in fourth. It is time for Jeb to pack it in – though I suspect he’ll hang around until Florida. Rubio had a bad night – fifth place behind Jeb, of all things. Some say it was the debate and maybe that did it; I don’t really know. Maybe 2016 just isn’t Rubio’s year. Right now, I think it shapes up as a battle between Cruz and Trump, with a slight chance that Rubio rebounds as the Great Establishment Hope.

Get ready for a strange political year…

I’m Writing Another Long Post Open Thread

Mark Noonan12 Comments

I really did like writing that last long post – and, so inspired, am in the process of writing another. It’ll likely become a series as I explore my views of just what, exactly, makes one a Conservative or a Progressive. But as enormously long posts take a long time to write, how about some content?

Well, the Broncos won – and all Chargers fans are delighted as it means the near-certain retirement of Manning and thus the Bolts will have a shot at the AFC West next year. As for Newton’s meltdown in the post-game presser: I cut him some slack. He’s a young, vigorous man who just had a fantastic year but the Big Prize – the thing he’s worked his whole, young life for – was ripped away from him…by that absolutely stunning Denver defense (I hadn’t seen a Denver game all year – I had no idea just how good those guys are). Newton will be back – and I think he’ll eventually get his well-deserved ring…and he’ll mature and do better.

Sanders and Hillary are tied in national polls – mostly a meaningless thing as the Primaries are a series of electoral contests which don’t 1 for 1 relate to each other…but it is a stunning fall from the heights for Hillary, who is now nakedly demanding Progressives support her simply because she’s a woman. I still think she’ll steamroll her way to the nomination, but she’s heavily damaged goods. This is what makes the GOP primary so important – whomever we nominate is likely the next President, even if it’s Jeb (that is a change for me – I thought him the one sure-loser for 2016, but Hillary is so bad that even Jeb could possibly beat her). Related: final poll for NH shows Bush in 2nd, Rubio in 4th. If it works out that way, then we’ll have Jeb to kick around for a while longer. I hope it’s not true – I hope by SC (or, at least, by the “SEC Primary” we’re down to a three man cage match between Trump, Cruz and Rubio). Also related: pretty, young woman is feeling the Bern…which is still rather sad, but I have about 1,567,978% more respect for any Prog backing Bernie than I do those backing Hillary. Seriously – Bernie is lots and lots of things I disagree with, but he isn’t a nauseating tub of corruption.

How do you fall on the “Obama is doing this deliberately/Obama is just an incompetent dolt” debate? My view: he’s an incompetent dolt who is managing to deliberately wreck things because for more than 7 years, no one has really dared to try and stop him.

NARAL/Moloch = Same/Same.

A financial expert opines that there is zero chance of a recession this year. I’m sure you’re comforted.

Keep Libya in mind – Obama’s failed war there might be heading towards Failed War II.

Draft women into the military? I’m a bit old fashioned – heck no. But here’s the thing – if we believe that women should serve in combat then there are two requirements:

1. Women must meet the exact same standards as the men and there can be no lowering of standards and

2. You’d have to register women for the draft.

Call me whatever you want – but I think that it is the duty of men to fight; to spare women, as far as possible, from the horrors of war. Liberals don’t particularly care about that – ramming through their idea of equality is far more important, even if “equal” means “lower the standards until the women can meet them”. They also aren’t at all concerned about combat efficiency because war is wrong and, at any rate, Soft Power will make war un-necessary. Meanwhile, careerists in the Armed Forces are willing to do anything to get another star on their shoulder and if that means lowering combat efficiency in order to suck up to the politicians, they’ll do it.

If all that is happening is getting you down:

A Ballade of Suicide

The gallows in my garden, people say,
Is new and neat and adequately tall;
I tie the noose on in a knowing way
As one that knots his necktie for a ball;
But just as all the neighbours–on the wall–
Are drawing a long breath to shout “Hurray!”
The strangest whim has seized me. . . . After all
I think I will not hang myself to-day.

To-morrow is the time I get my pay–
My uncle’s sword is hanging in the hall–
I see a little cloud all pink and grey–
Perhaps the rector’s mother will not call– I fancy that I heard from Mr. Gall
That mushrooms could be cooked another way–
I never read the works of Juvenal–
I think I will not hang myself to-day.

The world will have another washing-day;
The decadents decay; the pedants pall;
And H.G. Wells has found that children play,
And Bernard Shaw discovered that they squall,
Rationalists are growing rational–
And through thick woods one finds a stream astray
So secret that the very sky seems small–
I think I will not hang myself to-day.

Not a Massively Long Post Open Thread

Mark Noonan10 Comments

Figured my last post was way too long, so let’s put up something more immediately topical.

Cosmopolitan puts a sad face on the fact that more Texas women are having babies…I’m telling you, abortion is a sacrament in the Church of Progressivism.

Jimmy Carter opines that Trump is far more malleable than Cruz – and he would know about being a malleable President!

Do you like your recently reduced gasoline prices? Obama doesn’t.

Rob long points out that organizing and voting is what wins elections – it was, after all, Team Obama’s massively efficient organization which got him the votes in 2012. My note on this: of all the candidates, Cruz and Hillary have, by far, the best nuts-and-bolts political organizations. All else being equal, this indicates they will be the nominees and one of them will out-organize the other and win. Preparation wins battles.

I watched The Right Stuff the other day – delightful movie but what struck me most about it was that it was really a story about men being men; wanting to be tough and brave and do the grand deed simply because it needs to be done and brave men have to step up and do it. We’ve lost that.

Hillary doesn’t want to release the transcripts of the speeches she gave before various fat cat corporations and organizations. Is it because she reveals secrets – or because they are such clear boilerplate garbage that no one could possibly justify paying $250,000 to hear it, and thus it is clearly just a bribe for future access?