Open Thread

There are two realities about the status of Campaign 2022 at the moment:

  1. Nobody knows what will happen.
  2. What will happen is already happening.

I’ve seen lots of election Experts changing their race ratings over the past few days – from “leans this” to “tilt that” and so on. It is all drivel. Only marginal changes in voting intention take place in the last couple weeks. When we talk about “late deciders broke thus and such” what we really mean is “these people were 99% going to go the way they did, we just didn’t know it until it was over”. It is hard to get granular with polling – they try to make it seem like they can, but in a sample of 1,001 people the sample you get which represents the “late deciders” is tiny and, therefore, useless except by accident. You might get some marginal changes in the vote – and in a very tight race, that may make the difference. But for most races which will be decided by 1 or more percentage points, its already over: the votes are being cast and the winners and losers are almost all baked in by this point.

But there are some indications of how it is going. Early voting can be useful but it is also flawed: it can never tell you how many people will vote on election day, nor the partisan makeup of that bloc of voters. Rule of thumb (which has so far been correct) is that Democrats vote early, Republicans vote late. That trend will continue until it doesn’t. Will 2022 be the year it breaks down? We won’t know until the votes are counted. But, so far, early voting has not given Democrats much to cheer about – if Democrats are voting early (and are voting Democrat: just because a Democrat returned a ballot does not mean it is 100% for certain a Democrat vote), they aren’t voting in the numbers you would expect if this was to be a purple year, which the Experts have been telling us it will be (based on anger over Roe and Democrats distancing themselves from the toxic Joe Biden). But there are other places you can look.

For instance, you can look at the House race for NY-25. It is a D+8 district which Pudding Brain won 60-37 in 2020. So, pretty solid Democrat, right? GOP doesn’t stand a snowball’s chance, right?

Except the Democrats House Majority Pac just earmarked $275,000 in ad buys for the district.


Joe won it by 23 points.

The incumbent Democrat got 59% of the vote in 2020.

Whatever else is said, when cash is put on the line, there’s a reason for it – and the only reason they’d lay down this cash is because they’re desperately afraid that a Democrat +8 district is slipping away.

What does it mean? That Democrats are in trouble. A lot of trouble.

We’re supposed to be sympathetic to Paul Pelosi – 80 year old guy. Whacked with a hammer.

Yeah, no. He’s fabulously wealthy due to his political connections and while he did fall victim to a crime (so we think), the fact of the matter is that the policies he backed while raking in his millions have caused untold numbers of assaults, rapes and murders among the poor of America’s cities…and, so, my sympathy is a bit limited.

It was revealed that the suppression of dissent on line in 2020 was fully coordinated between federal law enforcement and the tech giants – also revealed is that the government is going to heavily focus on preventing we, the people, from seeing “toxic narratives”. Rely on it, they are also working with the major news outlets. I honestly lend more credence to stories at World Socialist Web these days than I do from CNN or the New York Times – they’re commies, but at least not owned (so far).

46 thoughts on “Open Thread

  1. casper3031 October 31, 2022 / 10:46 pm

    There are two realities about the status of Campaign 2022 at the moment:

    Nobody knows what will happen.
    What will happen is already happening.

    I agree. And at this point anything could happen. I suspect that neither of us will be 100% happy with the results, but I have a feeling my side is going to do much better than what is expected. Of course, if it was gong to be an easy Republican win, right wing billionaires wouldn’t be spending 100s of billions supporting Republican candidates.

    As for the attack on Paul Pelosi, sad that you feel you have to justify an attack on an 83 year old man in his home.
    I’m guessing Christ would have condemned the attack.

    • Rm42 November 1, 2022 / 5:06 am

      So couldn’t we say ‘if this was going to be a democrat hold, democrat billionaires wouldn’t be spending …”

      If you felt you had an advantage why wouldn’t you spend harder to press it?

      • Retired Spook November 1, 2022 / 7:07 am

        That’s how legendary UCLA coach John Wooden won 10 national NCAA basketball championships over the span of 12 years, including a streak of 7 in a row. When he had his opponent on the ropes he pressed harder and never let up on the fast breaks.

    • Rm42 November 1, 2022 / 5:08 am

      Or also to the point, Casper: if they weren’t spending it, to you it would be evidence that they weren’t confident so are t spending, but if they do, they ‘aren’t confident’ so they are spending.

    • Mark Noonan November 1, 2022 / 3:39 pm

      Justify? I justify nothing of the sort – but Paul was 30 years old in 1970 as the rot really started to settle in. He’s watched over the past half century as the cities he knew as a youth declined into Third World hell holes. Did he do anything about it? Ever reconsider? Mention to Nancy that after decades of liberal Democrat policies things were just getting worse? That packs of savages were running lose in places where they both used to frequent when young?

      He did nothing of the kind. He raked in his millions behind his guarded gates and never gave a damn about all the poor people who got their heads bashed in. Karma really is a bitch, you know? I take his wounds and place them against hundreds of thousands of people raped, beaten, murdered and robbed because Democrats got more political power out of collapse than they did out of law and order and all I can say is: man, sucks to be Paul.

    • Amazona November 2, 2022 / 9:39 am

      Much like the spectacle of watching our president slide deeper and deeper into dementia, it’s interesting to see how quickly you lurch into absolute lunacy.

      Who here has justified an attack on an83 year old man in his home?

      And why are you now trying to drag Christ into this?

    • Amazona November 2, 2022 / 9:43 am

      Speaking of “your side”—you’ve never articulated the elements of its ideology that attracted you and maintain your allegiance.

      You came up with a few issues but that’s just fluff. Any issue can be addressed within the framework of the Constitution, yet you have aligned yourself with the faction that chooses to ignore the Constitution to achieve its goals. Why did you make that choice?

      You also seem quite oblivious to the fact that your chosen political model uses those issues as bait, to suck gullibles like you in by playing on your emotions, to harvest the votes necessary to put them in power.

      • casper3031 November 2, 2022 / 5:22 pm

        I’m a democrat because they are the ones pushing the issues that I care about. As far as the Constitution goes, it seems that the interpretation of the Constitution varies by which judges are interpreting it. The Constitution can also be amended, so any issue I am pushing for (universal health care, etc) can fit under an amended Constitution.

      • Amazona November 2, 2022 / 10:17 pm

        I’m a democrat because they are the ones pushing the issues that I care about.

        EXACTLY! It’s all about the ISSUES which means it’s all about the feelz. While on the Right, it’s about the structure. It’s about analysis of which political model is the best blueprint for governing the nation. For Dems, it’s what makes them FEEL good. And, of course, what makes them feel morally smug.

        Dems want a government that will coddle them, take care of them, protect them from the consequences of bad judgment, and in general be mummies and daddies to people who never want to grow up.

        it seems that the interpretation of the Constitution varies by which judges are interpreting it

        Sadly, too many judges think they have the right to spin the words of the Constitution to advance their own agendas. However, when one goes back to the origins, back to the words in use when it was written, back to the contemporaneous writings of the Founders, the Leftist spins fall apart.

        Another thing about Dems is their inability to learn from mistakes. The UK has “universal health care” and it’s a mess—a mess going bankrupt while providing mediocre care. Ditto for Canada. You know what worked? The system Obama destroyed. The only problems with it were that due to political pressures health insurance (which is not the same thing as health care) became tied to employment, for tax reasons, another was that we were not encouraged to take care of ourselves, and politically motivated insurance laws meant not all insurance policies were available in all states.

        A system in which we buy our own health insurance when we are young and healthy, and keep it our whole lives, going from job to job and state to state, means that there won’t be a problem with pre-existing conditions in adulthood except for the rare conditions from birth. It would meet with resistance, being all about self reliance and personal responsibility and therefore anathema to the kind of person who is a Democrat, but it would put health care back in the hands of the patients and keep it out of government control.

        I think any issue the Left wants, except those demanding government control, could be addressed in a way that respects the Constitution. but the mindset that it has to be the government will not let real discourse take place.

        And if the Constitution is ever amended the way you want it to be, it will be the end of this country as it was created and as it flourished for so long, and it will degenerate into nothing but a mediocre mess.

      • casper3031 November 2, 2022 / 11:37 pm

        ” UK has “universal health care” and it’s a mess—a mess going bankrupt while providing mediocre care. Ditto for Canada. ”

        Have friends in both countries. They would revolt before switching to the terrible system we have. They also live longer and healthier lives which is kind of the point.

      • Amazona November 3, 2022 / 3:51 am

        I’m getting on a plane in a couple of hours so I don’t have time to deal with this. Suffice it to say there have been first-person accounts of lengthy waits in both countries for basic testing and death panels deciding which lives are worth the expense.

        And of course there are the stories of people from both countries coming here, to what you call our “terrible system” to get the care they can’t get at home. Even a former PM of Canada had to come here for treatment.

        You seem to conveniently have “friends” to cite every time something comes up.

  2. Cluster November 1, 2022 / 8:30 am

    So the rampant homelessness and crime spree that Democrats have unleashed in the last two years has finally reached the home of the main WOKE instigator, Nancy Pelosi, and we are now suppose to feel sorry for them??? Fuck the Pelosi’s. I feel sorry for the thens of thousands of other crime victims out there as a direct result of what Nancy votes for. And isn’t it strange that this is the second bizarre story involving Paul Pelosi in the last few months. Remember his near fatal car crash where he had “someone” else in the car with him? And how did Paul know David’s name? And why did he call him a friend?

    Like all other Democrat bullshit, this doesn’t pass the smell test. There’s no way a deranged homeless man gets that easy of access to the Pelosi home. In the previous thread Casper mentioned how upset we would be if this happened to Trump. That man would have never gotten within 300 feet of Mar a Lago. And besides that, Trump over powered 2 secret service agents, so there is that too. Mar a Lago is more secure, and Trump is tougher. So in reality, Trump is smarter and stronger than the Pelosi’s. I think that’s obvious.

      • Cluster November 1, 2022 / 2:34 pm

        Statistics lie, and liars use statistics, but once again an admission that you’re side is losing. When you’re having to compare crime stats and say that Blue areas are less deadly LMAO, then that’s a not a very uplifting political message is it? I wonder if the people who got shot in Chicago this weekend are citing these statistics? I hope it makes them feel better.

        How about energy independence, low cost of living, NO WARS, and ALL criminals go to jail? That’s what MAGA delivers.

      • Mark Noonan November 1, 2022 / 3:36 pm

        Yeah, that’s some bullsh**…no chance in heck it is correct because I’ve been in Red States and I can tell the difference.

      • Mark Noonan November 1, 2022 / 3:44 pm

        St Louis, MO: 66 murders per 100k
        Baltimore: 56
        Detroit: 40
        New Orleans: 40
        Baton Rouge: 38

        That is the top 5 murder cities per 100k people in the USA. Now, go tell us the last time each of them had Republican mayor.

      • Rm42 November 1, 2022 / 4:37 pm

        Isn’t it funny, Casper, that both of us know that crime is almost entirely in the blue cities in the red states?

      • Amazona November 2, 2022 / 9:52 am

        Actually, I think the quality of education in Wyoming has gone up since you retired.

      • Rm42 November 2, 2022 / 2:37 pm

        So Casper, when someone provides the context you intentionally left out in your deceptive crime post, you rapidly move on and fail to address it?

      • casper3031 November 2, 2022 / 5:30 pm

        Mark, Funny thing about the cities you listed. They all have lower murder rates than the Red States they are part of, meaning that the rest of the state has an even high murder rate without them.

      • Amazona November 2, 2022 / 10:23 pm

        Your glee at your conviction that conservative states have the highest crime rates is downright creepy.

        Colorado, by the way, under Leftist control for the last four years after being moderately Left before that, is a hot mess. It has the highest auto theft in the country, the highest fentanyl death rate, and I have written about trying to reach 911 to report a man lying on the Interstate in downtown Denver and giving up after more than 20 minutes because no one answered. Denver now had riots and a-holes blocking traffic, downtown is dangerous and disgusting with homeless encampments and the feces/needle environment of cities that get more publicity for their decline.

      • Retired Spook November 2, 2022 / 5:43 pm

        Not just a lie, Casper, an egregious, baldfaced, pants-on-fire LIE.

        St Louis, MO: 66 murders per 100k
        Baltimore: 56
        Detroit: 40
        New Orleans: 40
        Baton Rouge: 38

        Missouri – 14
        Maryland – 11.4
        Michigan – 8.7
        Louisiana – 19.9

        (based on 2020 statistics)

      • casper3031 November 2, 2022 / 5:58 pm

        Not a lie Spook. A mistake. I was looking at violent crimes per 100,000 people, which is what my article referred to. The statistics Mark referred to were murders per 100,000. I stand corrected.

      • casper3031 November 2, 2022 / 6:05 pm

        That said, the cities that you referred too are all governed by red state laws and policies. I also noticed that seven of the 10 states with the highest violent crime rates don’t have cities on your list. Six of those are red states.

      • Amazona November 2, 2022 / 9:52 pm

        And your point? Spit it out, don’t just keep harping on this

      • Amazona November 2, 2022 / 10:32 pm

        So now mayors and district attorneys have no influence over the crime rate in inner cities if the rest of the state tends to vote conservative? That’s convenient.

        Also good to know that Michigan and Maryland are now red states.

      • casper3031 November 2, 2022 / 11:04 pm

        ” And your point? Spit it out, don’t just keep harping on this”

        The point is simple. If you look at all the information, it’s pretty apparent that conservative rule fails. Life span: people in red states don’t live as long. Suicide rates: much higher in red states than blue states. Poverty: much higher in red states than blue states. Add crime and it’s pretty obvious over who is failing and its not the democrats.

      • Amazona November 3, 2022 / 3:54 am

        You’ve never made sense and you haven’t started now. But if you need to believe that “conservative rule fails” you just go right ahead and keep telling yourself that. The ugly fact is that Leftist governance has never succeeded anywhere it has been tried, always resulting in loss of personal liberty, economic misery and often the deaths of tens of millions of people..

        It’s taken the American Left a year and a half to destroy a significant and productive part of our economy, plunge us into crippling inflation, and impose tyrannical mandates on the citizens telling them to submit or lose their livelihoods. Mandates which, by the way, have resulted in destruction of immune systems and a plethora of vax injuries including death.

  3. Cluster November 1, 2022 / 8:47 am

    So Casper thinks “his side” has a pretty good chance in the mid terms. I’m thinking the American people will vote otherwise:

    Small businesses in various states are struggling to pay their rent, a new report shows, with rent delinquency at nearly 40 percent this month.

    In two years, we’ve gone from the best economy in the world with historically low energy prices and no foreign wars to where many Americans are now struggling to put gas in their car and hoping not to get shot doing it, all the while sending money to white nationalists in Ukraine. No rational American would ever vote for a Democrat considering their recent track record. Obama was 100% right when he called Democrats “buzzkills”.

  4. Cluster November 1, 2022 / 11:46 am

    Too funny

    “Democrats have a pretty good record on crime. And yet, they’re not talking about it,” CNN Senior Analyst Kirsten Powers said on “The Lead.” “In the same way there is a lot of people in this country who believe the Democratic Party supported defund the police. They didn’t. Right? And they just don’t do a good enough job of explaining what they believe.”

    Yes Democrats do have a good record on crime. They have created quite a bit of it. And who would ever think the Democrats wanted to “defund the police”?? Just because they said it repeatedly during the 2020 Antifa/BLM riots doesn’t meant they meant it, right? I guess that was just to pander to their emotionally challenged base but they didn’t really mean it. Promise.

  5. Cluster November 1, 2022 / 11:49 am

    On another note, isn’t it strange that Obama is out campaigning for Dems and not Biden? Obama didn’t get nearly the number of votes and support that Biden got. 81 million votes for Biden, the most in presidential history, far surpassing anything Obama got and yet, Obama is the chief campaigner still.

    Hmmmmmmm ….. curious minds

    • Retired Spook November 1, 2022 / 12:02 pm

      I think Biden is rapidly approaching his political, if not biological, expiration date.

      • Rm42 November 2, 2022 / 2:39 pm

        Approaching? I think the expiration date is rapidly receding in the rear view mirror.

  6. jdge1 November 1, 2022 / 6:42 pm

    I think some just want to get him over the finish line, January 15, before being taken out. That would supposedly give Harris the potential of 10 years in the driver seat. Of course she’s just as horrendous as Biden, both politically and mentally.

  7. Cluster November 2, 2022 / 8:41 am

    This is hilarious:

    Donald Trump’s biracial ex-girlfriend gives interview after six-year radio silence to CONFIRM he cracked inappropriate joke about how she got her intelligence from the ‘white side’ of her family: Model says she doesn’t want him to run in 2024

    Well that confirms it I guess. If this hyper sensitive bitch was offended and doesn’t want Trump to run then he shouldn’t.

    We need to eliminate this generation of emotionally stunted people who have no sense of humor. Time to bring America back.

  8. Cluster November 2, 2022 / 8:43 am

    The Paul Pelosi attack was another set up for Democrat/media narrative. Much like Jan 6, and the kidnapping of MI Gov.

  9. Cluster November 2, 2022 / 8:53 am

    So let’s all take a minute and think about how Paul Pelosi’s attacker is being treated and what the courts are doing with him. And now this:

    Buffalo mom-of-three is executed in front of her children by estranged husband – less than 24 hours after he was sprung with no bail for beating her in video she posted to Facebook: Victim even donned bulletproof vest over fears he’d retaliate

    So do you still feel sorry for the Pelosi’s? I don’t.

  10. Amazona November 2, 2022 / 10:04 am

    Pennsylvania law requires that “a voter who uses an absentee or mail-in ballot ‘shall…fill out, date and sign the declaration’ printed on the outer envelope of the ballot.” The Pennsylvania Supreme Court has previously upheld that law, ruling any absentee or mail-in ballot that does not comply with the law “is invalid and cannot be counted in any election after the 2020 general election.” In addition, Pennsylvania’s official election information portal explicitly explains that ballots submitted without the declaration section on the return envelope properly completed “will not be counted.”

    Pennsylvania’s acting Secretary of State was directing local officials to include ballots that were not properly filled out, signed, and dated despite SCOTUS’ recent decision to vacate the Third Circuit opinion that sought to allow the counting of improperly completed mail-in or absentee ballots.

    Earlier in October, the Secretary of State’s office was tweeting that local officials were “expected to include undated ballots in their official returns for the Nov election,” guidance that the PA Supreme Court has now superseded with its order for incorrectly dated or undated ballots to be excluded from vote counts next week.

    The Secretary of State just ignored the law, ignored the SCOTUS ruling, and tried to get illegitimate ballots counted—as they were in 2020. But counting illegitimate ballots isn’t rigging the election, howl the Usual Suspects.

    Why would anyone support counting ballots that fail to meet the requirements of the state laws?
    But then why would any legislature abruptly pass new election laws in violation of their own state constitution? And then count all the ballots submitted under the new illegitimate laws as valid votes?


    More to the point, why do so many people stridently, hysterically, defend this?

    • Cluster November 2, 2022 / 11:03 am

      Emotionally stunted people fall for emotionally fueled narratives, and the Democrats and the Media play those people like violins.

    • Rm42 November 2, 2022 / 2:41 pm

      I’m sure Casper will be along to say that ignoring the law is the only legal thing to do.

      • Cluster November 2, 2022 / 3:16 pm


    • Mark Noonan November 2, 2022 / 3:34 pm

      Well, you know why, of course: because they want to cheat. Any delay, any counting of ballots not clearly valid, any late arriving ballots…these are all prima facie proof of fraud. So are any efforts to block purging of voter rolls, keeping polling places open late in only selected areas, etc, etc, etc.

      But this year, they don’t have enough control to fully fraud it up – the only place I’m worried about is PA…

      • Amazona November 2, 2022 / 10:19 pm

        the only place I’m worried about is PA…

        Well, it will be a lot harder in PA, now that they can’t count ballots without signatures and ballots that come in too late, bot staples of Pennsylvania vote chicanery.

    • Amazona November 2, 2022 / 1:08 pm

      His family spokesman issued a press release saying it could have been much worse had he not been vaxxed and boosted.

      Worse than dying?


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