Red Wave

Open Thread

Mark Noonan46 Comments

There are two realities about the status of Campaign 2022 at the moment:

  1. Nobody knows what will happen.
  2. What will happen is already happening.

I’ve seen lots of election Experts changing their race ratings over the past few days – from “leans this” to “tilt that” and so on. It is all drivel. Only marginal changes in voting intention take place in the last couple weeks. When we talk about “late deciders broke thus and such” what we really mean is “these people were 99% going to go the way they did, we just didn’t know it until it was over”. It is hard to get granular with polling – they try to make it seem like they can, but in a sample of 1,001 people the sample you get which represents the “late deciders” is tiny and, therefore, useless except by accident. You might get some marginal changes in the vote – and in a very tight race, that may make the difference. But for most races which will be decided by 1 or more percentage points, its already over: the votes are being cast and the winners and losers are almost all baked in by this point.

But there are some indications of how it is going. Early voting can be useful but it is also flawed: it can never tell you how many people will vote on election day, nor the partisan makeup of that bloc of voters. Rule of thumb (which has so far been correct) is that Democrats vote early, Republicans vote late. That trend will continue until it doesn’t. Will 2022 be the year it breaks down? We won’t know until the votes are counted. But, so far, early voting has not given Democrats much to cheer about – if Democrats are voting early (and are voting Democrat: just because a Democrat returned a ballot does not mean it is 100% for certain a Democrat vote), they aren’t voting in the numbers you would expect if this was to be a purple year, which the Experts have been telling us it will be (based on anger over Roe and Democrats distancing themselves from the toxic Joe Biden). But there are other places you can look.

For instance, you can look at the House race for NY-25. It is a D+8 district which Pudding Brain won 60-37 in 2020. So, pretty solid Democrat, right? GOP doesn’t stand a snowball’s chance, right?

Except the Democrats House Majority Pac just earmarked $275,000 in ad buys for the district.

D+8

Joe won it by 23 points.

The incumbent Democrat got 59% of the vote in 2020.

Whatever else is said, when cash is put on the line, there’s a reason for it – and the only reason they’d lay down this cash is because they’re desperately afraid that a Democrat +8 district is slipping away.

What does it mean? That Democrats are in trouble. A lot of trouble.

We’re supposed to be sympathetic to Paul Pelosi – 80 year old guy. Whacked with a hammer.

Yeah, no. He’s fabulously wealthy due to his political connections and while he did fall victim to a crime (so we think), the fact of the matter is that the policies he backed while raking in his millions have caused untold numbers of assaults, rapes and murders among the poor of America’s cities…and, so, my sympathy is a bit limited.

It was revealed that the suppression of dissent on line in 2020 was fully coordinated between federal law enforcement and the tech giants – also revealed is that the government is going to heavily focus on preventing we, the people, from seeing “toxic narratives”. Rely on it, they are also working with the major news outlets. I honestly lend more credence to stories at World Socialist Web these days than I do from CNN or the New York Times – they’re commies, but at least not owned (so far).

2018 Mid-Terms

Mark Noonan18 Comments

Just a reminder – if we do get blown out tonight, after the President’s party suffered stinging rebukes in the ’82, ’94 and ’10 mid-terms, the President went on to be comfortably re-elected two years later. Also, if we lose tonight, we still have the White House, the Senate (almost certainly, unless there is an unexpected Blue Tsunami) with an increased majority and a solid, 5-4 majority on the Court. We’re still ahead of the game. Though, don’t kid yourself: losing will be bad in the sense that it will embolden the Democrats…though that, long term, could work to our advantage. They are crazy, after all, and two years of them being nuts as a House majority might work to our advantage in 2020.

Rumors have been flying all day, as is natural during Election Day. I can’t make out any pattern…some rumors are good for the GOP, others for the Democrats. I guess we’ll have to wait. But not much longer.

UPDATE: 8pm Eastern…not looking good for the GOP tonight.

UPDATE II: 8:41 Eastern…looking a lot better.

UPDATE III: GOP wins IN Senate race (thanks, Spook)

Open Thread

Mark Noonan18 Comments

Solution to the Caravan: close the border. Just tell Mexico that nothing crosses the border if that Caravan gets within 100 miles of it. Until the Mexicans turn it around and send it home, nothing gets across in either direction. It’ll cause an economic disruption, but far more in Mexico than here…and even the drug cartels would exert pressure to get the Caravan turned around.

That Trump rally in Texas was astonishing. Just a gigantic, happy crowd. Once again – all the Experts tell us the GOP is doomed on the 6th, but where’s the evidence? Where are the throngs showing up for Democrat events? Heck, where are the early votes? So far, only Nevada has given the Dems a slight edge in early voting, and my bet is that is only because the rural areas of Nevada haven’t checked in as of this moment. As for all the money the Democrats suddenly got – I’m figuring it is laundered money-bags money. Someone pushed the panic button and some big money people shoved money around and made it appear that Act Blue is getting huge small donor money. Of course, we’ll all find out for sure in two weeks.

President Trump remains the ultimate troll:

Trump says that he might nominate Hillary Clinton to the Supreme Court, just so the media will investigate her deleted emails

PETA says that milk is a symbol of White Supremacy. It is really getting hard to parody the Left these days.

The actual hero of Telemark has died at the age of 99. A genuine tough guy.

There’s an oddity about the Black Sea – apparently, when sea levels changed ages ago, the “original” Black Sea (much smaller than the current one) was submerged…and became a nearly oxygen-free layer of water. The upshot is that deep down in the Black Sea, anything that winds up there gets amazingly preserved, including this 2,400 year old shipwreck. The ship is remarkably intact. And it, while the oldest so far, is merely one of what may be scores or hundreds of such ships. The science guys are pretty committed, from what I can tell, to leaving everything in place…but, I’m not sure. What good does it do down there? My view: find some way to raise as much as possible and preserve it.

Thinking About Rules and Politics Open Thread

Mark Noonan38 Comments

When you break the big laws, you do not get liberty; you do not even get anarchy. You get the small laws. – G K Chesterton, 1905

That’s why I like Chesterton – he was mostly writing a hundred or more years ago, but almost everything he wrote is applicable today; especially as prophecy.

We have so many rules these days – Hulu got hit massively yesterday because they Tweeted out their desire that no one “culturally appropriate” in their Halloween costumes. The pushback was good (and hardly anyone defended Hulu: a possible indicator that very few are still afraid of violating PC demands), but the real problem is that Hulu felt it had to say something like that. To follow PC demands on costumes we’d probably need a thick book of rules which lays out which costumes are acceptable and which not, and who can wear which acceptable costumes: and given the vagaries of race and gender these days, we’d need really granular detail on that. Or, we can just stick to the old Big Law of “don’t be vulgar”. True, in that old Big Law there was a lot of subjectivity and someone could show up at the costume party looking like a fool, but it was certainly a lot more convenient than worrying if the use of a sombrero is racist.

The thing about Rules is that only enforcers really like them – which is why most of us prefer a few clear, simple rules that everyone knows and understands. God has Ten Commandments – and Jesus really boiled that down to two. The Constitution of the United States is amazing for its brevity. “Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion nor prohibiting the free exercise thereof”: that covers religion. On the other hand, Title IX rambles on for quite a bit, and that’s before you get into the mountain of words in the regulatory and judicial aspects of it. In the end, you don’t really know what Title IX means – it doesn’t even really define what “discrimination” means. This sort of thing is, in my view, deliberate. Make a long, rambling law that no one can fully understand and, presto!, you’ve got your mechanism for doing whatever it is you want as long as you have the power to enforce it. Of course, it should be noted, that only tyrants like this sort of thing.

A CNBC poll, of all things, discounts the possibility of a Blue Wave. OTOH, I’ve seen some worrying for the GOP polling data out of Pennsylvania. On the Other, Other Hand, the Democrats are sending $3 million to New Jersey (!) in an attempt to save Menendez. My guess: no one really knows what will happen on the 6th. Both sides are fired up and donating. I’m pretty sure we’ll see a very high mid-term turnout. I’ve noticed that the Democrat ads out here in closely-fought Nevada are turning away from attacking Trump and getting more general, as well as dragging out the time-worn “The GOP will take away your social security” accusation. Not sure if this means the Dems feel they’ve locked down their base and are now stretching for older voters who tend GOP, or if they have lost part of their base and are now trying to get it back. Guess we’ll find out soon enough. One thing you can rely on: if it is reported in the MSM, it is almost certain to be a lie in one fashion or another…the MSM, at the orders of the Democrats, will try to suppress GOP voter enthusiasm and boost Democrat voter enthusiasm. All political stories (with possible rare exceptions) will be pitched with this in mind.

Meanwhile, the weirdness of having a Democrat represent North Dakota in the Senate since 1960 might be coming to an end.

Open Thread

Mark Noonan46 Comments

The Democrats are proving there is no bottom to the gutter – Senator Feinstein, in a desperate and downright evil attempt to last-minute derail Kavanaugh, has said she received an anonymous denunciation of Kavanaugh and has referred it to Justice…where she’s likely relying on some Deep State malefactors to run with it, at least enough to lend this disgusting hit job some legitimacy.

This is the utter sh** of the left, folks – and it is what the Never Trumpers say we must vote for this November because Trump is so bad. F all these people! Get out and vote GOP as if your life depended on this November. Let’s take this garbage and shove it right up their a**.

Yes, as a matter of fact, this did piss me off. A lot.

Latest in liberal stupidity: Men’s preference for young women is a sign that masculinity is in crisis. Anyone want to break it to them that men find young women attractive because, well, sexual attraction has as its purpose procreation: you know, it’s rather biologically baked in for us to have a preference for sexual partners who can fulfill the biological purpose of sex?

So, a police force hires a man after determining he’s unable to handle stress…and then, in a stressful situation, he shoots a person. Now, why was he hired? Because he’s a Somali Muslim and diversity is our strength…

I see a Red Wave coming – because four separate forecasts have the Democrats winning the House.

Open Thread

Mark Noonan5 Comments

Democrats have started a pre-emptive campaign against possible Supreme Court nominee Amy Coney Barrett. Their choice of tactic seems to be vicious, anti-Catholic bigotry. I don’t think this will work out for them as well as they think.

Their real worry is that on the matter of jurisprudence, Barrett seems unimpressed with the legal reasoning behind Roe and other such decisions. This is natural as the reasoning was specious, at best. Democrats are trying to fire up their base – and scare off a few hand-wringing GOP Senators – by raising the specter of a ban on abortion. Thing is, they are lying, as usual. Even if Roe is overturned entirely (doubtful: Justices like to keep precedent going), all it would do is return the issue to the States, or to the people (you know, where the 10th Amendment left it). My bet is that all but a few States would keep it legal, at least in the first trimester. I’d still be pleased by this because any move towards ending it is a good thing…but we’re a long, long way from any sort of political coalition which would outright ban abortion nationwide. More than likely, all any future Court will do, however, is allow States to impose various regulatory requirements on abortion – bans on late-term abortions; requirements for fully informed consent; that sort of thing.

The Experts are still uniformly predicting a good mid-term for the Democrats – from moderate Democrat gains to a gigantic, Democrat wave. They’ve got their polls and analysis of the off-year elections we’ve had coupled with historic trends. It is all very impressive…but, I just don’t see it. I’m fully prepared to be absolutely wrong, but I just don’t see it happening. All I can say is that primary turnout doesn’t indicate a massively large and enthusiastic Democrat base; it also doesn’t indicate a complacent or dispirited GOP base. The RNC is awash in money while the DNC is effectively broke. True, the Democrat House and Senate campaign committees are in good shape, but so are the GOP committees…on balance, the amount of money the RNC has to throw at races places the money advantage squarely with the GOP…and it makes me wonder: if the GOP is doomed and dispirited and Democrats are all fired up, why this money gap? I’ve read stories claiming big GOP donors are done with Trump’s GOP…and I believe them; but, still, the GOP has more money, overall. Where’s it coming from? Is it from people who didn’t used to be GOP donors, thus indicating that there’s a new infusion of supporters for the GOP? Is the DNC being broke an indicator that many long-term Democrats are moving away from the Democrats? Time will tell – personally, I think the GOP will win in November, perhaps win big. But, we can really only wait and see.

Mexico has elected an idiot President in a landslide. He’s like a caricature of the Third World socialist we’re all familiar with…everything is the fault of American Imperialism and if he’s just given full power, everyone will get rich. I get why Mexicans voted for him: if you think our Ruling Class is corrupt and out of touch, then let’s just say that compared to Mexico’s, our nitwits are verily reincarnations of Cincinnatus. For 100 years, Mexico has been ruled by corrupt politicians. Frustration led to the election of the one guy who seemed to be against it – except that some of his team are clearly involved in it. I predict utter disaster for Mexico…the good news it that Mexico’s Constitution says a person can only serve one term as President. The bad news is that leftists like this guy never pay much attention to what a Constitution says. Now is really the time to build the wall.

Don Surber has been keeping track of those who crossed Trump and then had their lives go south. It is a long list.

Robert Stacy McCain’s brother is having medical and insurance troubles – if you can spare a bit, maybe kick in a couple bucks?

Supreme Court, Etc Open Thread

Mark Noonan31 Comments

Never thought a Supreme Court vacancy could make so many people lose it – but if you were on Twitter yesterday, you watched the most epic leftwing meltdown, ever. Not excluding election night, 2016. However, as they say, there’s more! Or, at least, there may well be more…I saw a blurb on a recent poll showing that Millenial men have swung 23 points to the GOP since 2016…something like a 12 point Democrat advantage has now become an 11 point GOP advantage. If this holds true, then 2018 (and 2020) won’t be like anyone is expecting.

Another bit of polling supposedly shows a big jump in Latino support for Trump – which isn’t actually surprising. I think that Democrat Latino support is mostly concentrated among Latinos who are overtly Progressive plus immigrants/children of immigrants. By the time you get to the grandchildren of immigrants, you’re just dealing with everyday, average Americans for the most part. And such people have other concerns on their minds than what happens to illegal immigrants at the border.

Getting back to the vacancy: people who know seem to believe that any of the possible Justices on Trump’s list would be an excellent, strict Constitutionalist on the Court. You can’t know for certain, naturally: you never know when the itch for a legacy ruling will get hold of a judge. But, I think we can rely on it there’s a very good chance that whomever replaces Kennedy won’t have his talent for specious reasoning when it is time to ratify whatever the Progs are whining about in social issues (on things like the First and Second Amendments, on the other hand, Kennedy was pretty solid). The Democrats are all in a tizzy about losing Kennedy’s near-certain vote in favor of their social policy changes, but the real crisis will hit them when Ginsburg leaves the Court – which she is bound to do voluntarily or perforce before too many more years have passed. If she makes it to 2024, she’ll be 91.

But all that may become a moot point – remember, the Courts are only there (for our Progressives) as a last resort: what to do when they can’t get their policies through Congress. But if things go as they might, Democrats might be so bereft of power a couple years from now that the makeup of the Court won’t really matter too much…the real action will be in Congress. One of the rulings this week as the striking down of the requirement that government employees belong to – and pay for – government employee unions. This is what happened in Wisconsin now on a national scale. You can rely on it that a very large number of government employees will opt out of unionization. This will cause a gigantic loss of Democrat political funds – direct and indirect – and thus crimp their ability to influence politics. I note that Wisconsin went red in 2016 after Walker’s government employee reforms…it hadn’t gone red since 1984; and even then, only because it was the Reagan landslide.

We might be living in a very different political America as soon as January.