Open Thread

Open Thread

Mark Noonan47 Comments

If you listen to polls, both the OK and NY governor races are tied.

This is why you shouldn’t listen to polls. The chances that the GOP is in trouble in Oklahoma are <0.1%. The risk that the Democrat is in trouble in NY is <10%. That is a huge spread, BTW – but, still, pretty solid for the Democrat. What isn’t at all possible is a GOP governor losing in a deep Red State in a GOP year.

OTOH, there is that non-zero chance that the GOP gets a miracle in New York. It would take an epic GOP Red Wave to make it happen…but there is a chance (small) that this happens. It all comes down, as usual, to who shows up? If the economy is the main issue, then the Democrats are getting shellacked. The reason the Democrats are leaning heavy into abortion (every second Democrat ad here in Nevada is “THE GOP WILL END ABORTION!!!) is because they must make the race about something else. Anything else. They tried to make 1/6 the issue (there were even ads on it here in Nevada) but that flopped…so, we’re all abortion, all the time right now. Will it work? I don’t think it will – I view it as a desperate throw of the dice by a party which dares not talk about itself.

If, however, in addition to the economy being the motivator we also see a drop in traditional Democrat turnout (especially among African-American voters) then the shellacking could turn into a beat down of epic proportions…that’s where NY governor, WA Senator and other races call to the GOP.

We’ll find out 11/8.

Been working on Book VI , Heirs, honestly meant to have it out by now but my production has been astonishing in later books (it will now be at least an 11 book series) and as the story has developed the characters (old and new) have gone off in some very interesting directions and this has necessitated a bit of a rework of Book VI, mostly in the foreshadowing of things that come later. I’ll have it out in a month or so. Book VII, Empress, will come real quick after that as I have hardly any modifications to make on it. Book VIII The Crimson Blade I want to have out in Summer of 2023. All that leads up to Book IX, Home World, which is 80% done and then on to Book X, Ghost Tower about 60% done and then we wrap it up (we hope) with Book XI, Antaki (only just started). Meanwhile, I’ve got the outline of my next series…not sure what it will be titled but it is an awesome cool story of deception confronted with courage.

Ever more parents are pushing back against transgender propaganda in schools. Most famously this past week were mostly Muslim parents in Michigan who went ballistic over the propaganda. Hate to break it to the Muslims, but there time as a favored “oppressed group” now likely draws to a close. Trans now trumps all in the Intersectionality Bingo Card. Some people did get a little upset because it was Muslims and there is always that concern they’ll impose Sharia. But, given a choice between Sharia and teaching kids that men can get pregnant, I’m going to have to go with Sharia. The true solution, of course, is to take control of the school boards – you know for a fact that no member of that board roasted by the Muslims so much as asked the locals what they want. Liberal Democrats they likely were elected because Muslims, like most immigrant communities, tend to vote Democrat – and most of the time, nobody really cares what the school board is up to. Until recently, that is – we now know how crucial it is. In fact, along with Sheriffs, it might be one of the two most crucial things to control.

Open Thread

Mark Noonan17 Comments

So, we had a hideous inflation report…and then the 1/6 nimrods subpoenaed Trump. This allowed the MSM to universally drop the Bad For Democrat Narrative and pick up the…well, what they think is the Bad For Trump Narrative. They are so utterly predictable.

Naturally, the Resist (!) Left went into onanistic overdrive on the news – fantasizing about Trump refusing it and the DOJ frog-marching him out of Mar a Lago…because none of them know how things work. Trump will, of course, throw up legal objections (all legitimate as the committee has no real authority to do what they think they’re doing) and then the election will happen and on January 3rd a Republican majority will dispense with it. And it is highly doubtful that even as nasty a partisan as Garland will try to set a precedent which would allow Trump or DeSantis to arrest Biden on January 21st, 2025.

The 1/6 Committee isn’t really about the mid-terms any longer. They had hoped that their friendly MSM Narrative would make people so hate Trump that it would help them at the polls…but the reality is the story that was buried today: inflation. It is rising very fast and while various entities are still trying to hide the effects, they can only do that for a little while. Once November 8th is past they’ll give it up and let inflation run its course – with the hope (for them) that it will abate and the resultant intensified recession will end long enough in front of 2024 to give the Democrats a shot.

It was revealed by the Saudis that Pudding Brain attempted to pressure them into keeping production high in front of the mid-terms. Think about that – with many decades of proven reserves in the ground (and 200 years worth altogether) Team Biden still won’t even consider increasing American production and instead opted to try a sordid deal with the Saudis. And merely to save their political bacon. These people really do hate the United States and her people – they just want power and the wealth it brings to them.

Fetterman is clearly suffering some bad effects from his stroke a little while back and the Dem/MSM Narrative on it switched from “there’s nothing wrong” to “you’re an abelist bigot if you mention it”. I feel a little sad for the man – I’m pretty sure it is just his people (and his consultants making bank no matter how the election goes) keeping him at it. My father had a stroke and I know how difficult it is for a person to bounce back from them, if they ever fully can. Dad never quite got back and had a speech impediment for the rest of his life – looks like Fetterman will, too. This doesn’t mean that Fetterman can’t have a long and productive life, but the bottom line is that the recovery time from a stroke is not the time to be running for Senate. It is cruel to keep him at it. It may end up killing him – and the Democrats don’t care: they figure that Shapiro has a 70/30 shot at getting re-elected and will be able to name Fetterman’s replacement (personally, I think its about a 52/48 shot – I still hold that polls are massively underestimating the coming GOP turnout while at the same time massively overestimating the likely Democrat turnout).

Meanwhile, Democrats have rung the alarm bell in…Oregon. I guess there’s just so much Antifa a place can take and then they’ll even (((shudder))) give the GOP a shot: we’re looking pretty good for the governorship and even have an outside shot at a legislative majority. Meanwhile, over in Washington Patty Murray appears to be in some trouble – I’ll still rate that “lean Democrat” because they have so much power (and ability to cheat) in Seattle…but, clearly, Democrats are in some trouble. What we saw in 2021 was a pretty nearly uniform swing in VA and NJ of ten points from the Democrats to the GOP…if that holds true in 2022, a huge GOP year is coming…but there’s is a chance that the swing will be even larger. Meanwhile, Ron Jonson looks like a lock in the WI Senate rate while Kemp appears similarly situated in the Georgia governorship (don’t even talk about FL – Governor and Senate races will be called at poll closing in the Panhandle). What I can’t see is a huge divergence between PA and WI…they tend to flow together being States with a lot of demographic similarities. We’re about to clean up in WI but fail in PA? Could happen – but PA is trending Red much more rapidly than WI (voter registration changes in favor of the GOP mark out PA as the next FL). We’ll see what happens – but I’m expecting some pretty big wins in PA. Michigan? Officially, everyone says that Whitmer has it in a lock…and it would take a pretty big GOP wave to get the GOP over the top there. But we might have that.

Open Thread

Mark Noonan27 Comments

A couple days ago Elon Musk suggested a possible path to peace in Ukraine – the nutshell of it was free and fair elections in the ethnic-Russian areas and everyone abides by the result. It is to be doubted that Putin would ever agree to it even though such a vote would probably result in a win for Russia…but likely not an overwhelming win and he’s certainly not about to allow free and fair elections in the Donbas when he won’t allow them in Moscow.

But what amazed was the fury which greeted Musk’s suggestion – even Ukrainian government officials piled on. The same officials who were grateful a couple months ago to Musk for providing Starlink for free after the Russians have pretty much zapped the entire Ukrainian communications network. Musk was roundly condemned as a Russian agent and the very thought of peace was scorned.

People around me long enough know that my basic belief about war is that if you get into one, you apply the maximum power you can muster against the enemy until he quits. This, of course, is a very American perspective because we are so powerful – generally, a full application of American power means the other side loses (this is why we’ve been forbidden to apply our full power since 1945). Even in our current state of decline, we’re still vastly more powerful than anyone else out there. But what if you aren’t the strongest power?

It still holds in my view: you apply the maximum amount of power you can muster. But with a thought towards obtaining peace as soon as possible because if you are the weaker side, then a long war only has one ending for you: defeat.

As I noted early on, the path to a clear-cut Ukrainian victory was for them to be able to mount a serious offensive into Russia right at the start. Think Six Day War: you drive deep and fast to entirely disrupt the enemy plans and, hopefully, get him to panic and willing to talk peace at just about any price. Absent that, the second best option was to trade space for time – and sell territory at a usurious blood price: hopefully that would get the Russians to quit. As it turns out, Ukraine did neither – it was, in fact, Ukrainians who were ground up defending every inch of ground in positions good, bad and indifferent as the Russians systemically used artillery to bludgeon their way forward. Now the Ukrainians, re-equipped by NATO, are taking the offensive again and they are gaining ground…but mostly it looks like ground the Russians are giving up, unwilling to spend blood to hold it…and, once again, Russian artillery is exacting a high blood price for each Ukrainian advance.

So, in my view (and, apparently, Musk’s) it is time to talk peace. It is unlikely that Ukraine, unaided on the ground, will be able to expel the Russians from all Ukrainian territory. If they are finally able to do so, the price will be high and the further they advance, the more heavily Russian the local population is. And, of course, the Russians get a say: if Putin fully mobilizes Russia for war, he’ll have overwhelming weight on his side and he will prevail…perhaps conquering the whole country. So: smoke a peace pipe.

But, we can’t have that, it would seem. I guess our Ruling Class can’t think of anything else to do. And they are making money off it.

In other Musk news, he’s once again saying he’ll buy Twitter. As soon as word of this came out, everyone’s follower count dropped – some by many thousands. I only lost 12 because I don’t let bots follow me. So, it seemed pretty clear that Twitter was getting rid of bots before Elon takes over and shows that their algorithm is entirely self-dealing and their traffic and trends are manufactured.

Herschel Walker – I’m sure you’ve talked about it. As for me: I refuse to condemn based on an uncorroborated story. Walker denies it. Unless and until stand-up-in-court proof is presented, I will discount the accusation. A lot of us on the right are taking this basic position and the left is getting mighty irritated with us – but what is making them scorching mad is when we say that even if they prove it, we won’t withdraw support for Walker.

The funny part about this is that I’m sure their strategy went like this: “Hey, they’re a bunch of white, racist Christians who hate anyone who sins. They’re only backing Walker because they think he’ll do as he’s told. So, we tell them that Walker paid for an abortion and their Christian bigotry, supported by their racism, will do Walker in!”. Don’t doubt me on this: they really think we’re like that. As if we Christians don’t believe that the blood of Christ covers all sins. And in addition to that, it won’t make us help elect a man committed to the Democrat’s position: federally funded abortion on demand to the moment of birth.

What pleased me most when the story broke is how few bedwetters on the Right emerged – discounting all Never Trump (which has morphed into Never Republican), of genuine conservatives only a few lent the story any credence, and most of them said it made no difference given Walker’s opponent. We’re learning! We’re no longer falling for the Left’s drivel. This is good and bodes well for the future.

Open Thread

Mark Noonan33 Comments

Who blew up the Nordstream pipelines? Who in heck knows – if it was blown up, it could be an act of war. But by whom and against whom? Very murky situation – but also very bad as it will increase pressure on global energy supplies as we enter winter.

The main thing here is that we wouldn’t have to care if Pudding Brain wasn’t strangling American energy production.

A couple respectable pollsters (there are a few) are starting to get it together and showing us winning pretty handily in Georgia, Arizona and Nevada – and with good signs in Pennsylvania. The more “stretch” races are in places like Washington and New Mexico. The bottom line is that 25 House and 2 Senate seats are within very easy reach of the GOP and that puts an end to Pudding Brain’s legislative efforts…and if McConnell allows even five federal judgeships to be filled over the next two years, I’ll be surprised.

But some people are starting to see that very much underneath the radar, GOP turnout might come as a huge shock to everyone. Remember, the leadership of the United States is calling us Nazi terrorist threats to Democracy…polling has shown (or, I guess, failed to show: but you know what I mean) the “shy GOP voter” over the past few cycles. This partially explains the massive misses recently – like when the aggregate in Ohio the day before the 2020 election showed it either tied or Trump barely ahead before he went on to win the State by more than 8 points. But the increased hateful rhetoric against GOP voters is possibly making ever more “shy GOP voters”: people who won’t even pick up the phone when the pollster calls…but who are yet determined to vote GOP in November. We’ll see if that happens…but if it does, then November 8th could be a bloodbath. And one sign that it might be happening is that Democrats are spending money in the Washington Senate race…which should be a walkover even in a strong GOP year.

That video I linked to PM Meloni? YouTube has deleted it. Because they are terrified of her…and so a bit of fascism is necessary here, to “protect” people, you see? All just to Save Democracy.

As Hurricane Ian bears down on Florida, the Democrats and the MSM (BIRM) are praying for a catastrophe they can blame on DeSantis. These are very sick and twisted people.

Our Progressive friends would like us dead. For our own good, of course. And to prevent us from Democracy-ing the wrong way.

Open Thread

Mark Noonan20 Comments

The MSM is increasing the “Democrats are surging to victory” Narrative. Still, though, with the whispered “but not really” articles here and there. They know the Democrats are getting wiped out. Among other reasons, here’s why:

The Dow is down 18.5% so far in 2022. I haven’t even checked my 401K because I don’t need that negative energy in my life (plus I’m wedded to “dollar cost averaging” in my investment strategy).

Oh, and gas prices have started to rise in some areas. And I paid more than $8 for a 12 pack of Coke. And they were nearly out of avocados. And totally out of the Diet Pepsi the Mrs prefers.

Basically, things are bad and getting worse – and the only thing the Democrats have is abortion and they are running hard on it. Now, could there be a solid majority for abortion in America? People so committed to it that they’ll turn the election for the Democrats? I doubt it. We’ll find out November 8th.

Some people have pointed out that it would be strange for Democrats/MSM to lie about how things are going – in other words, if they spend the next 6 weeks lying about how it will be, they’ll look terribly bad when the results are 180 from their assertions. This is a lack of understanding about how lies work – first and foremost, they work. They always work. No lie has even been spoken that didn’t work.

What do I mean? Surely there have been failed lies.

Well, sure. In fact, all lies fail. They can’t do other than fail. But for the liar, that isn’t the point. No liar is good at long-term thinking. Liars lie because they want to wring whatever advantage they can out of the moment. The cheating husband isn’t thinking about how his lies to his wife will work a year from now – he just wants to get away with his adultery right now. For the liar, all lies work because at least for a second, at the bare minimum, you are spending time refuting the lie – you are not advancing your own cause. You are on defense…while the liar already has his next lie lined up…and is advancing his cause while you’re refuting his last lie.

We can never know counter-factuals but it is my assertion that if the mere truth had been told in 2020, Trump would have won better than 60% of the vote and the GOP would have secured very large Congressional majorities. I’m not talking switching the MSM from anti- to pro-Trump: I’m saying that if the mere truth had been spoken, it would have been like that. That Biden was already in massive cognitive decline; that Hunter’s laptop and all the vileness on it was real; that the FBI has spent years lying about Trump/Russia; that Covid escaped from a Chinese lab and that lockdowns weren’t necessary; that VBM was obviously and only a method of voter fraud. On and on and on like that – the incumbent riding that wave of Truth would have crushed the hapless Democrats.

Lies work – even very stupid lies, such as Trump-Russia or the “very fine people” lie which Pudding Brain asserts was his reason for running. They have a corrosive effect – even the most wise are prey to them. Maybe there’s something to it? comes very much into play…but even with all those lies, Trump won more than 11 million more votes than in 2016: and so my assertion about how it would have gone if the truth had been told. So, the lies they’re using here in 2022 will also work…what should be a 50 seat House gain will probably be 30 or so. It’ll work – it’ll keep the Democrats in the game, and for the liars, that is all that matters.

Now, on to the really scary thing: the murder of Cayler Ellingson: this is a watershed moment in the life of our Republic. A kid was hunted down and murdered for his political beliefs. The last time this sort of thing happened the Freedom Riders were trying to end Jim Crow. But there’s a difference – back then, the Establishment was on the side of the hunted. Here in 2022, it is on the side of the hunters. Even the allegedly GOP AG is downplaying it – and the murderer was charged basically with leaving the scene of an accident and given bail…while J6 detainees are sitting in solitary for trespassing. Make no mistake about it – this is very bad. Joe Biden in his Hitlerian speech the other day gave permission for this…and if our Republican leaders don’t start punishing the Democrats for this sort of thing then people will start to defend themselves against perceived threats.

Open Thread

Mark Noonan38 Comments

Of course sending the migrants to Martha’s Vineyard was a stunt – but it was a very good stunt. So was sending some to the VP’s official residence. Governor Abbot had been sending migrants to sanctuary cities for a while…but it took DeSantis to figure out how to make it really noticeable.

And that was the point of the exercise – to get the issue in front of the American people. Since Pudding Brain took office, our borders have been open and illegals have been flooding across…and Pudding Brain’s people were shipping these people all over the country…often at night and usually to Red States. Nobody really knows how many have come across since January 20th, 2021, but it has got to be in the multiple millions by now. And nobody is checking on who these people are – in and amongst the people just looking for a job and a better life are likely scores of thousands of hardened criminals and terrorists. And the MSM simply wasn’t covering it – the border States knew about it. Those of us on the Right knew about it…but the mass of the American people did not know about it. Now, they do.

It must be kept in mind that if we had a media – even a liberal media – which merely told the truth, then the whole world would be different. What is reported and how it is reported – even before you add in the outright lies – largely determines what is in the public mind and thus how the public decides. The mere truth and Trump would have won 70 percent of the vote in 2020. If people were really informed just what sort of utter scumbag Joe Biden has been his entire adult life – and if they hadn’t been fed a steady diet of lies about Trump – then only the most mindlessly partisan people in America would have voted for Pudding Brain. And not only would Trump have won in an epic landslide, but the GOP would have likely won Constitution-amending majorities in Congress.

The problem the GOP has is twofold:

  1. An unwillingness to point out what the other side is really like.
  2. A media system which has as its primary focus hiding what the other side is doing.

Take the abortion issue – supposedly, the GOP will now lose (or only barely win) because in getting the Dobbs decision, an infuriated mass of female voters will show up to smack the GOP down. This ignores that at least half of women are pro-Life. It ignores the tens of thousands who showed up every year, for forty years, in often freezing temperatures, to March for Life in DC since Roe came down. It ignores that when NARAL and PP get a mob together, it is paid, professional organizers renting a mob to shout for the cameras. It ignores the fact that as the overtly pro-Life party, the GOP has done better since Roe than before. The media says abortion is popular and they’ll produce an endless string of polls to buttress their assertion…but in actions and votes, the whole strength is on the pro-life side. And the GOP simply never pointed it out while the MSM was hiding that the Democrats position on abortion is federally funded on demand until the moment of birth.

So, too, on immigration. The Democrat position is open borders – and the MSM hides this by simply not reporting on what is going on at the border. When the MSM does talk about immigration, it is some pull-the-heartstrings story about some poor guy getting deported…not the tens of thousands flooding in at the hands of ruthless drug cartels. They don’t mention the illegals raped and murdered along the way. Fifty illegals show up in Martha’s Vineyard and the media is all over it, fifty suffocate in a truck because their coyote screwed them over…crickets. What DeSantis and Abbot did was to find the most effective way to point out the Democrat position…and show them up as hypocrites because when it became their community, they called in the Army and bounced those migrants in less than 24 hours.

With the possibility that DeSantis might be the GOP nominee in 2024 the MSM has now decided that DeSantis is worse than Trump. Because of course.

But we’re all worse than Trump, aren’t we? Essentially, to be in opposition to the Democrats is to be an Enemy of the State. The circle is complete – the Democrat party, infiltrated by Marxists since McGovern’s campaign in 1972, is now de-facto Bolshevik. This is very bad – because Enemies of the State are to be destroyed. We still have a window of opportunity to stop this, but only if we ruthlessly exercise power when we win it.

Open Thread

Mark Noonan75 Comments

Starting to see the hedge posts from the Pundit class – “although the Democrats stand a good chance in November, there are indicators that things may go badly”. This is just so that when their poll models come up short on November 8th, they’ll be able to refer back to these posts to show, “see? I told you it wasn’t in the bag!”. The grift must go on! And for each post injecting a little reality into the debate, they’ve got a hundred from fantasy-land.

The bottom line is that the fundamentals still favor the GOP – if it is just a normal first mid-term, the Democrats will certainly lose the House and will likely lose the Senate (the sleeper elections here, for me, are New Hampshire and Colorado: outside chance we can win them). When you add into these fundamentals still high prices (including for gas! They want us to be grateful that it went from, here in Las Vegas, $5.25 a gallon to $4.45 – gee, thanks Joe!), the recession, the border crisis, rising crime and a general sense of incompetence and failure at the top, we could see some very strange results on November 8th. It is hold on to your hats: let’s see what happens. But Joe Biden’s term ends on November 8th…with the House, if nothing else, his legislative agenda is finished.

What we’re not seeing from the GOP leadership is a full understanding of what the Base is expecting supposing the GOP wins both houses – we’re not looking for ways to work with Democrats. We want unrelenting war. Hearings. Investigations. Government shut-downs. If necessary, bust the filibuster and just send popular bill after popular bill to Joe’s desk for him to veto. McConnell, as I’ve noted before, is just not the man for this hour – and I honestly don’t think he wants to be the leader of a MAGA GOP. Hopefully, he can be eased out. McCarthy is on a little firmer ground…but if he gives us “compromise” on things like guns and border security, there will be a revolt in the GOP Caucus which will be more MAGA than ever before come January.

It is time for lines to be drawn – we’re the party of freedom and we’re going to prove it.

Youngsters are finding that hooking up with people on Tinder isn’t working out too well. We could have told them that – but, kids don’t listen much on that score. What will be cool is that those who survive this will carefully instruct their sons and daughters on right conduct.

Turns out that it has been Federal law since 1960 that election records – every last scrap of paper related to them – are supposed to be preserved by the election officials. This will not surprise you: of the 100 largest counties, 94 did not keep such records. As most large counties are Democrat-run, there ya go. It has been my contention really since about 2003 that in the deepest Blue areas, nobody has the foggiest notion of how many votes are cast and for who. Given what I’ve seen since then, I’m more and more of the conviction that the votes are just made up – whatever is needed to produce the desired results, that is what is announced. We’ve got to think about this: in the deepest Blue areas illiteracy is common as is welfare dependency…illiterate welfare bums do not have a high propensity to turn out. Especially as on the local level, the result is pre-determined (like there is any chance a GOPer – or even an anti-Establishment Democrat – can win in places like Chicago and San Francisco…no matter how bad things get). The attempted recount of Michigan in 2016 was another eye-opener. It was quickly shut down as they started opening ballot boxes marked “500 ballots” only to find, say, 20 or so in there: that is something which didn’t get a lot of MSM airplay!

What keeps us afloat right now is that Democrats don’t have total control of the process – and the reason they are trying to impose federal law on all voting is because they want that control. What we have to do is ensure that where we do get power, we implement Florida-style rules to ensure Democrats can’t cheat. And when we have federal power, send federal agents into the deep Blue areas to monitor the elections…the first step being to simply count how many people show up and compare that to reported votes. The Democrats have always cheated – and they never, not even once, cheated just a little bit. They are always looking to alter the result in their favor. They just put the cheating into overdrive in 2020 to get Trump out. They will continue to cheat, on an ever grander scale, unless we stop them.

Open Thread

Mark Noonan46 Comments

The assertion about the mid-terms is that the Dobbs decision is motivating female voters to turn out for Democrats. Is there any truth to this claim? Only in polling. But, as I’ve pointed out before, polling is the political metric most open to manipulation.

This also leaves out the fact that not all women back abortion. I know the the MSM will never cover such a thing, but the bottom line is that women have been leading the charge against Roe ever since the decision was handed down. Would not their victory against overwhelming odds and after so many years of struggle motivate them to cement their achievement into a pro-life Congress?

For me, I just don’t see abortion as being that great a motivator for the Democrats outside of the urban and suburban upper class white women who were going to vote for them anyway. Might get a few more of them to actually show up in November, but not in any numbers necessary to save Democrat bacon.

I stand by my prediction – made months ago – that the GOP is heading for a blowout win on November 8th. Could I be wrong? Of course I could. I’m human! But we’re in a recession. Food prices are high. Crime is rising. Foreign affairs are a mess. Its the first midterm for the Democrats since their victory. The GOP gained House seats in 2020. They only need a few to claim a majority. Voter registration and primary participation numbers (even after Dobbs) clearly favor the GOP all around the country (it won’t matter because the State is so Democrat, but in Hawaii the GOP primary turnout was up like 125% or some such).

And lets think about something – if you’re a Democrat you sure in heck don’t want to talk about the economy or crime or foreign affairs. But you have to talk about something. Sure, you’re talking Trump…but you can’t just talk about him, right? So, what? How about abortion? That’s the ticket – talk abortion. Maybe frame it to scare our halfwit female voters (something like 36% of college educated white women agree with the sentence “some men can get pregnant”; rely on it, the number of GOP women included in that 36% is next to zero)? Goose that turnout and maybe turn a few narrow, suburban losses into holds? And then, hey preseto, here comes a bunch of polls saying that women are talking 24/7 about abortion and, buddy let me tell you, they’re gonna make the GOP pay for it! Convenient how everything in the Establishment comes together just the way the Democrats would want, right?

Now, maybe women are fired up to save Roe? Could be. I guess. If so, then we on the right have a far larger problem than we suspected. We’ll find out for sure on November 8th…but I’m sticking with my prediction.

Over in Pennsylvania Dr Oz is doing all he can to win – he’s barnstorming the State while Fetterman apparently still has a long way to go on recovery from his recent stroke. As I’ve been saying for a while, Pennsylvania is the next Florida. Voter registration trends have been massive for the GOP year after year. It might seem like the State is still favorable to Democrats, but that is an illusion mostly brought about by habit and really, really bad polling. Remember, in 2018 4 of the last 5 polls in Florida showed a substantial lead in the governors race for Gillum…only to have DeSantis win. And it wasn’t like the polls were close – the day before the election Quinninpiac had Gillum up by 7. So, I take those polls showing Fetterman (who can barely speak) up by 10 over Oz with a truckload of salt. Same, too, with the governors race in PA. Some people got mad the other day when Oz said he would have voted to certify the 2020 results…but I didn’t. I pointed out early on that Oz will have to go off-MAGA on at least some issues to be electorally viable in a State trending Red but not quite there yet. Taking a contrary position on the 2020 election result is the most meaningless off-MAGA gesture he could make.

Latinos are trending GOP. Hard. And Democrats are starting to notice and it is really pissing them off. So, what do you think they’re doing about it? Reassessing how they approach the community? Reconsidering things like Latinx and telling school kids they can change gender? Maybe concentrate on policies which will provide the sort of well-paid, blue collar jobs which sustain most Latino families these days? Oh, heck no! What made you think they’d do anything like that?

What they’re doing in response to the GOP gains in the Latino community is figuring that the GOP is lying to them and that Latinos are too stupid to figure this out:

There is nobody quite so racist as a white liberal – they simply cannot believe that any POC would disagree with them and if they do, it is because they’re stupid…and so need white liberals to speak for them.

I do believe – and it is one of the reasons for my prediction of a GOP blowout win – that Latinos will show that they want something different in November. This vote will not necessarily be an endorsement of the GOP: it will be far more, in my view, a rejection of the Left than anything else. To secure the long term loyalty of Latino voters, the GOP will have to do the concrete things necessary to show them we’re serious – a strong economy; low crime; good schools. That sort of thing. As for the Democrats, their party strength is in upper class white women and black women in general. This is not enough to sustain them in power. If they lose Latinos (and they are) and if support among black males starts to crumble (there is some indication of this) then Democrats will be reduced to an urban rump incapable of winning national power.

Open Thread

Mark Noonan64 Comments

They’re burning candles for light and shutting down trains in Europe because they lack sufficient power supplies…last I read was some places were experiencing a 500% increase in power bills: this is unofficial rationing as most power companies in Europe are either government owned or functionally government controlled. And it is just amazing. Europe sits on vast coal supplies – British coal, especially, is high quality. They’ve got overflowing buckets of the stuff…now just sitting in the ground (read an article about how a French coal town, its mines long shut down, was building a coal mining museum…which was just pathetic). They also have nuclear capability – with French nuclear plant designs arguably the best and cleanest in the world, but they’re all shutting down their nuke plants. They’re now sitting in the dark because to be “green” they had to outsource their energy supplies to Russia…and then they decided to fight a proxy war with Russia, who has now said, “hey, turns out the gas pipeline doesn’t work. Don’t call us, we’ll call you when we’ve got it up and running again”.

Europe, by the way, is cold in winter. About half of Europe is north of the 49th parallel…which is our northern border (absent Alaska). We think of Juneau of being way the heck up there by the North Pole…for Europeans, that is just Stockholm and St Petersburg. The glorious weather of September is going to lead into the cold, dark and wet times of October to March. Unless Europe rapidly gets a grip on this, people are going to freeze to death this winter all over Europe.

This is the future the Ruling Class wants for us – remember, we’re the carbon they want to reduce.

A couple former Department of Homeland Security employees developed a way to use our cell phones to track our movements…and they then sell the resultant data to law enforcement. You can rely on it that if you’re trying to track a murder suspect, this is great…but it is also surveillance without a warrant, with law enforcement (so far) getting away with it by saying, “hey, we just bought the data”. This is totalitarian – this is a step towards applying China’s social credit system here in the USA. This practice, and anything like it, needs to be legislatively banned. The United States government must not be able to collect data on us without a warrant.

Gonna need some common sense knife control in Canada, I guess.

The Irish Times doesn’t like The Rings of Power, the Lord of the Rings spinoff on Amazon. Their complaint; the proto-hobbits are made out like low-rent Irish peasants. To me, as the descendant of low-rent Irish peasants, that is the least complaint. My gripe is that it is boring. I get that they had to make a lot of strong female characters because Girrlllll Power of modern times. I have no complaints about Middle Earth now becoming multi-ethnic (totes cool with black Hobbits and dwarves). But what I don’t get is how they couldn’t write an exciting story based on Tolkien’s works.

For those of you not fully versed in Tolkien, I’ll nutshell:

First Age: mostly revolved around the war between the Elves and Morgoth, who is a Satan-like fallen angel who wishes to rule the created world. He is finally defeated by other, non-fallen angels after centuries of war and defeat and the instrument of his defeat is a man who makes the perilous journey to seek aid against Morgoth.

Second Age: The men who aided the Elves are given a home removed from Middle Earth; they are granted long life and great power and over time build themselves up a magnificent civilization only slightly lower than that of the Elves. Meanwhile, in Middle Earth, Elves, men and dwarves live a much more perilous existence and over time come under attack from Sauron, the lieutenant of Morgoth who eventually forges the Ring of Power to exert control over all of Middle Earth. Over long years, Sauron is finally defeated but not destroyed.

Third Age: that is the bit with the Hobbits and finally getting rid of the Ring.

So, if you want to make some new stuff, you’re going to go with First or Second Age – Rings of Power goes with Second Age but it appears to take almost nothing from Tolkien save some character and place names. It is, as I said, dull – the action sequences are too dependent upon CGI, the acting is two dimensional and the writing just terrible. I’m going to give it a couple more episodes to see if there is an improvement – the Elrond character seems ok so far and the mysterious man Galadriel meets has some promise. So, we’ll see.

Open Thread

Mark Noonan154 Comments

So, Sarah Palin lost in the Alaska at-large special election. More importantly, the GOP lost – even though the GOP scored 60% of the total vote. This is because they use ranked-choice voting…a system designed to provide confusion and allow well organized minorities to dominate. It was put in place by the machinations of Alaska’s allegedly GOP Ruling Class because they didn’t want any more Palins. The election in November, however, even with ranked-choice voting will almost certainly produce a Republican House member.

The city of Jackson, MS is out of water: they have no water to drink. You might be surprised to hear such a thing. I mean, the city sits on the Pearl River and it isn’t like it has needed to increase water capacity as, bucking the trend in the South, it has been steadily losing population since 1980. But, out of water. It is also a majority black city, and this means that, also bucking the trend in the South, the government has been increasingly leftist over the past couple decades. So, who’s at fault for the lack of water?

You are, of course! You: white Republicans! You forced the liberal Democrat (and largely black) government of Jackson to neglect the water system! If you hadn’t been such racists, you’d have been looking closely at Jackson, MS and the minute you saw the water system starting to deteriorate, you would have parachuted the billion dollars they need to fix it. But you didn’t. Because you’re a bunch of white, racist, MAGA meanies.

Apparently at least from some power companies you can get what amounts to a smart thermostat…and they offer you some rebates if you’ll install one. Fine print: when they need to reduce power consumption, they take control of your thermostat. To me, the whole thing is kinda funny – it seems clear in the article that the victims of this are good, little liberals who wanted to do their part…until it got hot outside. One of the reasons I keep my 2004 Saturn in good repair is because it is a car which has absolutely no connection to the grid…you buy an EV, and I guarantee you outside parties can get into it and shut it off any time they want.

Reminder: the Left wants us to live in an impoverished future. The wealthy, American lifestyle is “unsustainable”, in their view. Now, I don’t think that the bosses really believe in climate change…but it is a useful tool of control, isn’t it? Sorry, guys, but we really gotta save the planet…so, no AC for you! No meat, either. Nope, you can’t have a car. Here’s your Life Pod. Eat the bug paste and shut up…

USCD has backed off plans to host a freshman orientation which excluded white people. They got some push back on it – but we are seeing more and more of this and it is happening not simply because of increased Leftism, but an increased sense that at least Pudding Brain’s DOJ won’t do anything about it. Rely on it, guys: any attempt to exclude anyone based on race – especially in any institution which receives taxpayer funds – is a massive violation of multiple federal laws. Huge criminal and civil penalties await anyone who would do such a thing…if anyone will enforce the law. Big if.

We don’t live under law any longer – haven’t, really, since Bill Clinton was allowed to skate on perjury simply because he’s a Democrat. What we live under is whatever the law-enforcers decide is the law…and if a written law doesn’t work to their favor, it is a dead letter. And if there isn’t a law you violated, they’ll make one up if they need to take you out. If we get back in 2024, we really have to send some people to jail – lots and lots of people – if we want even a chance of restoring the Rule of Law in the United States. Every officer of the law and the courts who refused their duty should be fired…and jailed if they violated even the least law while in office.