Open Thread

Getting massive gloom and doom punditry from the right these days about our November chances…all fueled by polls. There is a great deal of “as per usual” in this, but I think this year there is an extra twist on it – the underlying contention is that the GOP was heading for a massive win this year until Trump endorsed a bunch of crazies! I do detect a GOPe desire to dampen GOP prospects as a way to cut against Trump for 2024. There are plenty of Establishment types who would love a Democrat victory if it meant that they could stop worrying about Trump coming back.

Will it work? I don’t think so. As I’ve said for years, never pay attention to what people say, but what people do. And all through 2022 the voters have been turning to the GOP. The key markers for me right now is primary turnout and voter registration trends and both of these show a remarkable surge for the GOP.

The Nuclear Option on keeping Trump out in 2024 is, of course, to indict him – and if he’s indicted, rely on it they’ll craft a jury which will find him guilty. Doesn’t matter if he’ll win on appeal, they feel that such a move would prevent him running. I don’t think so. It would be such an obvious political indictment that it might actually work to Trump’s favor. Will they do it? Depends on how desperate they get.

For 2022, it is the Recession, stupid. Naturally, the palace guard MSM swung into action to tell us that a recession isn’t a recession when a Democrat is in charge…but the problem they have is that people are living in the recession and no amount of spin changes that.

I’m sure you’ve heard the joke that when seconds count, the police are minutes away – well, in New Orleans, they are two and a half hours away. That is the average response time, and it means that New Orleans effectively has no police, at all. This is not sustainable – eventually, vigilantes will appear.

I don’t know how many of you are J K Rowling fans, but she got herself into trouble over transgenderism…keep in mind that Rowling is a big Lefty in everything else, but she did make the reasonable statement that a woman is a woman and this set off the trans rights people. Fundamentally, they can’t hurt Rowling because she’s already made buckets of money off her Harry Potter books…but the attacks on her are relentless. Now, imagine this turned on a regular person who didn’t have all that money? That’s the problem we have to address…the online bullying that we do have to stop.

Open Thread

So, the Mirrors series does head towards it’s end: I’m doing revisions to Book VI: Heirs and shortly after that, Book VII: Empress will come out. Then Crimson Blade, Home World and Ghost Tower. There might be some more after that (I planted several story lines in each book that I can pursue if I wish). But, mostly, Book X will wrap it up – that is, all the Bad Guys and Evil Things our four main heroes have to deal with will be, well, dealt with. I’ve already written The Very End where I wrap up the story line for everyone, including secondary characters. So, of course, I got another idea.

I was at work yesterday and when I took a break, in about five minutes a story of science, magic and adventure came to mind – all revolving around people who are Of The Sixteen, those who ain’t and the Terrible Secret the Sixteen hid thousands of years before. It’ll be lots of fun: no spoilers! It was amazing how fast it all came into my mind…Arkan is our hero, helped by Thomas (who has a Secret of his own) and desperately in love with Samantha, who doesn’t realize she loves Arkan. A lot of the outline is already written and I hope to have a first book out in a year or so, even before Mirrors wraps up.

That stuff is a lot more fun than real life.

So, how do we know we’re heading into a very bad recession? Because Team Pudding Brain and the MSM are out there telling us that two quarters of negative growth don’t count as a recession…even though the very same people claiming this were saying as recently as last month that they would. They must have seen the report on Sunday because this drivel started on Monday and I’ve just got to figure its a doozy of a bad report…I mean, a slight drop they’d just pass off as nothing…so, I expect it to be on the hideous side. And keep in mind that ever since Obama (with a temporary reversion under Trump) the Keepers of the Stats have been fudging the economic numbers to make it look as good as possible for Democrats.

How do we know that Democrats are about to get wiped out in November? Two things: they’re pushing out D+12 polls showing Democrats with a slight Generic Ballot lead and they’re working up to a reinstatement of mask mandates in Blue cities and States…so they can justify ballot harvesting and drop boxes again. All this means that they are expecting a 10 point or so swing to the GOP…and you just have to look at 2020 results to see that such a swing means a 35-40 seat GOP House gain. What they’re doing now is attempting to shore up not swing districts, but deep Blue D+8 to D+12 districts…because as we slip into recession and oil supplies foretell another spike in gas prices, Democrats may be in for an historic defeat. As per usual in such things, lots can change – it is months away: but at this point in time, it is getting rather baked in. If the Democrats are lucky and all the breaks go their way, they’ll only lose 25 House seats.

Democrats are insane, by the way – they brought a witch and a furry (if you don’t know what a furry is, do not look it up) in for a hearing on abortion. But they are also stuck – they said that such insane people are legitimate in the debate and now they’ve got to pretend that normal people watching this won’t be disgusted.

McDonald’s is seeing fewer customers. Think about that. Wrap your mind around it and then just know what it means for the economy. People are refraining from a burger and fries because the money isn’t in the budget for it.

Is Obama Serious About Avoiding the “Fiscal Cliff”?

There is an argument to be made that he doesn’t care if it does happen – from Zero Hedge:

…Here is why our leader has no desire to settle this affair before it gets put into effect.

  • It will impose tax hikes on everyone who pays federal income taxes (not just the 2%)
  • It will cut entitlements without his having to support the actions
  • It will reduce defense spending without him ‘looking soft’ as Commander-in-Chief
  • It will end the ‘Bush Tax Cuts’ automatically
  • It will probably slow economic growth (GDP)

Why would our President want these things to take place?

  • He would get the extra tax revenues to use without being blamed
  • He could not be held accountable for breaking his ubiquitous pledge to never raise taxes on the bottom 98%
  • He would not be the one cutting entitlements, it would be ‘out of his hands’
  • He prefers to cut defense spending rather than social programs
  • He can later ‘give back’ tax cuts to the Middle Class
  • He can then call them the ‘Obama Tax Cuts’
  • He can blame those damn ‘Obstructionist Republicans’ for the next recession

For B-Rock the Sequestration is a ‘Dream Act’ to accomplish many of his goals and dreams without any accountability. Every negative can be blamed on the Republicans even as he allows his stated preferences to be overridden by the forced actions imposed on him…

There is some sense to that.  Especially if, as I believe, we’re heading in to recession, anyway.  Perhaps Obama’s number-crunchers have told him that a period of recession in 2013 is unavoidable, cliff or no, and so might as well make certain a crisis never goes to waste.  Deadlock now means the Bush tax are gone for good, defense is heavily cut and we actually do reduce our deficit all without Obama taking the blame.  You know the MSM would spend the next year blaming every last thing on the GOP.

We’ll have to see, of course – if Obama actually does give in some meaningful way on tax and entitlement reform then we’ll know he’s interested in the fate of the nation.  If he stands firm and won’t do anything unless the GOP agrees to specifically increase tax rates without any serious entitlement or tax reform, then we’ll know he’s ok with us going over the cliff.