Open Thread

Open Thread

Mark Noonan20 Comments

8.5% inflation, but you know it is a lot higher than that – they’ve clearly fudged the numbers. My guess is that it is closer to 20%: prices are just out of control. The Fed says inflation may have peaked in March…but, that’s just a lie and the Fed knows it. As long as we’re pouring money out while also not producing at home, inflation will continue to rise. Might have a few ups and downs going forward, but the only way to stop this is to choke off the money supply – in other words, we have to go into a recession to stop inflation. And we only get out of the resultant recession by increasing domestic production on all levels, but especially energy. Side note: Team Pudding Brain is absolutely opposed to increasing domestic energy production.

Oh, they’ll say they want to switch to green energy but that stuff doesn’t work. It isn’t easy to find news reports about it, but solar just sucks. Uncle Sam kicked in more than $700 million for the solar plant in Tonopah, NV (with his nephew the Nevada State government kicking in a bit more than $100 million more) and the damned thing never worked. It is now shut down (after emitting poison gas and frying untold numbers of birds) and in bankruptcy.

And I do get the appeal of solar energy – the sun does shine, after all! But not brightly everywhere all the time. At best, something like solar can be a supplement. And it seems to me that if we’re going to shell out taxpayer funds for it, they should go to put solar panels on residential roofs – especially in the desert southwest. But, that doesn’t really work, now does it? If the panels are on my roof, how does the power company profit from it? So, build the 100 acre blight on the desert and have the power sent to my home…if the thing works. One thing I’ll bet about that plant in Tonopah is that everyone who made money off it was connected to Harry Reid and his machine.

Meanwhile, supply shortages continue – and not just in energy. I read that there’s a shortage of baby formula. How does the United States ever have a food shortage? We’ve never had one except in a few areas of the South during the depths of the Civil War – and that wasn’t really a shortage of food but the inability of the crumbling Southern economy to transport the food to where it was needed. This is the land of plenty. We have something like 500,000 square miles of arable land in the United States – and that’s without bringing anything like all arable land under cultivation. And American farm land is good – it is, for the most part, very fertile and either naturally well watered or easily watered by irrigation. Its why we have been – until just recently – the bread basket of the world. And here we don’t even have enough food for infants!

And this looks to get worse. I’m sure you’ve seen your local store out of or low on very common items – but various disruptions, including the war in Ukraine, look to cause all sorts of production and transport problems as the year progresses.

And what is Team Pudding Brain up to? Blaming the inflation on Putin and getting set to green-light an absolute flood of illegal immigrants over the southern border. It is just insane.

As a result of all this, the Democrats are in trouble? How deep? They’re heading towards wipeout territory. One recent poll Joe in the 30’s on approval rating – and in the midterms, the party in power’s vote share usually mirrors the incumbent’s approval rating. Now, to be sure, some are convinced that the Democrats are serenely pushing ahead with the Progressive insanity because they’ve already rigged the mid-term vote for a Democrat win. But that isn’t possible in this circumstance. To rig a vote, you have to have total control not just of the count, but of resolving all disputes about the count. Democrats have this total control in the deep Blue cities, of course, but not much else – Georgia, Wisconsin and Arizona have all done at least a bit to tighten up voting controls. They won’t, that is, get away with 2020 in those States again. Personally, I think Democrats are going Full Progressive for two reasons:

  1. The people actually running things for Joe don’t care about the upcoming vote.
  2. Those who do care figure might as well quadruple down and at least hold the enthusiasm of the big cities.

The guy who shot up the subway in NYC was on the FBI radar, has been arrested multiple times and posted insane, violent rants on You Tube. Too bad he wasn’t a middle class housewife who complained to the school board – might have been able to do something about this. I mean, the FBI only has so many people – think of all the strings attached to garage doors which would have gone uninvestigated if the FBI was spending time on the NYC shooter?

Open Thread

Mark Noonan34 Comments

Finally released Kings and Queen: Book V of the Mirrors series. To me, it is the best one. To be sure, I think that each book is an improvement over the prior – some of that is because I’m getting better at writing! Remember that when I started this, I merely sat down with a bare outline of part of a story and just got rolling. While not selling millions – it is an indy author thing, after all – people are buying it and I am getting really good feedback on it. It is fun! If you haven’t started the series, pick up Mirrors and get going. You won’t regret it.

On to more boring stuff…

Ukraine war: looks like Ivan got himself a bloody nose and is pulling back from Kiev. But the Russians don’t tend to quit, so I do wonder if this is just a regroup before they try again. Took the Russians 6 months and 3 tries to get Plevna in the Russo-Turkish War of 1877, after all. Russians are just awful at anything that requires organization and timing…but they are very good and putting their head down and smashing away until the other side is overwhelmed.

Meanwhile, the Ruble massively rebounded because Putin simply started demanding payment for oil and gas in Rubles. It is hard to sanction a resource-rich nation like Russia. It can cause some dislocations, but those who were buying the resources were buying them for a reason.

I think that regarding the trans debate, the most crucial thing we can do is assert the plain fact that heterosexuality is the norm. Sure, in a human population of 7 billion, you’re going to find lots of variations from the norm, but all the variations combined are going to be a tiny fraction of the whole. Our presumption – our insistence, really – is that any minor who proclaims themselves in any way not heterosexual is mistaken. Only after study by genuinely disinterested third parties can any proper judgement be made as to whether or not there is a genuine variation.

We must bring an end to this current system which socially punishes the norm, provides benefits for the abnormal and immediately agrees with any proclamation of variation from the norm. There’s a poll out that says about 20 percent of youngsters view themselves as something other than heterosexual. This is not biologically possible and probably overstates reality by at least a factor of 10. But because of our current system, many of these kids will be set on a path which will prove destructive. We must put a stop to this – it is genuinely insane and continuing it is not survivable.

Since you guys won’t show up on Twitter, I’ll give you some samples of what you can find there.

Open Thread

Mark Noonan33 Comments

Some recent polling indicates an impending disaster for the Democrats – but outside polling, the RNC is now targeting about 70 Democrat House seats. Sure, there is some bluster always built into such things, but that large a number shows the GOP knows that if there’s a year to just have someone running, this is it. A lot of seats can fall our way just because we’re not the Democrats.

In response to the dire political picture, the Democrats seem set on fighting over Florida’s law to ban teaching sexuality to kindergartners. I don’t think this will work out as well as they hoped – though there is a chance that such a thing is merely to keep suburban white women on board. In other words: to prevent a 40 seat loss from turning into a 70 seat blowout. You know: “hey, we know that prices are through the roof and crime is rising, but don’t vote GOP! Don’t want your neighbors to think you’re a homophobe, do you?”.

Other than that, the issue is a real loser for the Democrats. The line has been crossed and people don’t want any of it. Polling on it shows massive public support with even pluralities of Democrats not keen on teachers talking sexuality with little kids without parental knowledge or consent. Even a lot of gay people are coming out forthrightly in favor of the law: because everyone knows that when you’re six years old, you don’t have a sexuality…and they further know that it is absurd to provide life altering chemicals and surgery to kids because they allegedly are trans.

All of a sudden, both the New York Times and the Washington Post confirm the Hunter Biden laptop story. Everyone is asking: why this and why now? After all, the lie was already sold and did its job. The Democrat base remained convinced that the laptop was bogus. So, why even bring it up again?

Various theories are put forward: Putin is about to release a lot of dirt, so get ahead of that. There are investigations going and they may result in indictments in spite of strenuous efforts by DOJ to avoid it, so get in front of that. They’re going to 25th Joe out and this will be the leverage to get Team Pudding Brain to go along with that. I simply don’t know – but whatever reason they’ve brought it back up again, it bodes ill for the Democrats.

The bottom line is that the e mails are authentic – and that means that Hunter Biden is massively compromised by foreign powers and “the Big Guy” probably is as well. How this is to be managed if it comes out in a way that even the MSM can’t cover it up for the Democrat base is going to be tricky.

San Francisco DA Chesa Boudin – yes, the son of the Commie murderers of yore – is facing a recall effort. Think about that: a Commie son of Commie murderers is facing recall in San Francisco. Trump woke us on the right up to how bad things are – but Pudding Brain and his like at the local level in the post-Trump world is now starting to wake up urban Progressives. This is not to say that I expect San Francisco to vote GOP any time soon…but gun ownership is rising and, very quietly and only among trusted friends, these urban Progressives are now starting to question aspects of the Progressive religion. I’ve seen several bits written by such – and they freely admit that they’ve always hated Republicans, assuming such are ignorant racists, and that they, the Progressives, were on the right side of history leading the world to a future of peace, prosperity and justice. But that was before they had their car broken into a dozen times and had to step over mounds of feces on the sidewalk outside their zillion dollar home.

Revolutions happen slowly and then all at once. Think about the Russian revolution – on the whole, actually, things were better than they had been in Russia in times past. Even with the war – which Russia had de-facto already won (only to lose it because of the revolution) – things ground along pretty well. There was more freedom of speech than ever before. Political engagement was increasing. There was a rising class of independent farmers. The government was fairly competent and staffed by mostly honest men. But then, without warning, people just decided they had enough – that, while better than olden times, they simply couldn’t endure the Czar and his system any longer. It was nearly universal: hardly anyone stepped up to defend monarchy: from nobleman to laborer, everyone simply agreed that whatever else happened, the Czar had to go. And so it was done and a 300 year old dynasty was swept away in a couple days. I think it may be like that here – that our total Ruling Class (which includes a lot of GOPers, of course) will find that they’ve worn out their welcome. That even if things aren’t horribly bad, they have to go, even if we don’t agree about what comes next.

Open Thread

Mark Noonan23 Comments

As I pointed out earlier, we’re governed by morons – yesterday, Pudding Brain shot his mouth off about removing Putin from power. We’re used to that sort of thing as ol’ Gramps forgets what he’s supposed to say…but when he said it, huge numbers of high end people were all “wow!” about it…here, at last, was the strength we need! America is saved! And thank God Trump isn’t in power. Of course, within minutes of Biden’s statement, his staff was out there pointing out that, no, we don’t seek regime change in Russia.

But it was astonishing how many people took what was obviously a gaffe and made out like it was the greatest oration of all times. They really believed it! People were comparing it to Reagan’s speech about tearing down the Berlin Wall!

The flip side of this was the Never Trump people who instantly saw it for a mistake but the only thing they could say was how mad they were – the helped install Biden because they had to get rid of Trump and his insane statements and this is what they got! Just stupid – Trump didn’t say insane things. He said outrageous things, but not insane. Everything he said was actually calculated for effect…Pudding Brain can only say what’s on the script and then only if his meds don’t wear off half way through.

Just a bunch of idiots – who have to pretend a clearly senile, old man (who was corrupt and stupid in his best days) is someone who could possibly replace Trump. And they have to try to sustain this Narrative – Trump was so bad that he had to be replaced and the only plausible replacement was good, old Joe who is a moderate and competent. It is theater of the absurd.

Ketanji Brown Jackson had her hearings this past week and some GOP Senators did hit some good points and a lot of people don’t like how soft on crime she’s been as a judge, especially as regards abuse of children but, in my view, nobody made the most telling statement about her: she’s a rubber stamp.

It doesn’t matter how smart she is or what credentials she has, the bottom line is that she’s where she is because Democrats are 100% confident how she’ll rule on any issue identified as crucial for Democrats. Some GOP Senator should have said just that: “look, Ms. Jackson, you’re a nice lady and all, but everyone here knows that when cases regarding things like gender, guns and immigration come before you, you’ll rule as the Democrats want regardless of what the law says. You’re not here to ensure Justice: you’re here to enforce a certain political ideology which you’ll dress up with legalese. All I’d like right now is for you to admit this: admit to the American people that your bias is firm and won’t be shaken and that for the remainder of your life all you’re going to do is try to advance the Democrat agenda via Judicial activism”.

The explosion would have been epic – and very useful. The main thing necessary for combating lies is to point them out. People tend to caution ( which often works out in practice to be cowardice): as long as they aren’t forced to confront an issue head on, they’ll go along with whatever drivel people are using to justify a bad thing.

The thing about Trump – the thing which most infuriated his opponents right and left – was his willingness to call things out. Recall his early speech on immigration which the Left and Never Trump cast as Trump calling all Mexicans rapists – we all know what he said and the reason his opponents twisted “they’re not sending us their best” into an insult to all Mexicans was because they knew it was true – our open border was used as a dumping ground for all manner of criminals. Everyone knew it – but nobody spoke it. But once Trump spoke it, it couldn’t be ignored…and, in general, even today the American people still go for Trumpist immigration and border security policies. Contrast this to someone like Jeb! calling illegal immigration an “act of love”: Jeb isn’t a bad guy. He was a very good, Conservative governor of Florida. The foundations of the current GOP dominance in Florida were laid down by Jeb. But we all knew from the first second he made that statement about immigration that it was bull – a lie, covering up the horrid truth. If we really want to beat these guys, we have to tell the truth. Not just about SC nominees, but about everything.

The Ukraine war does continue to grind on – I’ve mostly been using the Institute for the Study of War maps to see how things are going…and they show a very much stalled Russian offensive. OTOH, the maps put out by the Russian Defense Ministry show much more substantial gains…but, who can trust that? But then I saw a French Ministry of Defense map and it pretty much agreed with the Russian. And if the French and Russian maps are even partially correct, the Ukrainian position east of the Dnieper is turned north and south and the Ukrainians should be trying to extricate their army from the east.

Musk hopes to get an orbital test flight of his completely reusable Starship in May. My bet: it will slip. Various government agencies are foot dragging on final approvals – and the more Musk tweaks the Ruling Class, the more roadblocks they’ll throw up for him. The Starship with its heavy lift booster is certainly impressive – significantly larger than the Saturn V we oldsters remember. The payload it will lift is not just larger than anything launched before or today, but bigger than most space program plans for the future. It is a rocket which can, eventually, go to Mars. Musk will probably want to go as quickly as he can…but it is fraught with risks and expenses and, as I’ve pointed out before, until we can really work out the issues of gravity and radiation, there’s probably not much point in going except as a prestige “I did it first” sort of thing.

Open Thread

Mark Noonan32 Comments

Kings and Queen is out! Very happy to release Book V of the Mirrors saga. I like some of the very human touches I was able to insert:

Trossen smiled and saluted and then dashed off. Zenia exited the carriage carrying a rather heavy bundle. She looked around in frustration.

    “Where has that fool got off to now?,” she said, impatience in her voice.

    “Which fool?,” I asked. “You’ll have to be specific as an army is made up of them.”

    “Trossen. He was to help me set up tonight.”   

    “I’m afraid he’s been called to other duties. I’ll have Aldor detail another man to help you.” There was a sudden look of astonishment and worry immediately on her face.

To me, it is by far the best of the lot. At least, so far: Book VI Heirs is also good while Book VII Empress is also coming along nicely. Meanwhile, lots of work has been done on Book VIII The Crimson Blade and Book IX, Ghost Tower. Heirs is very cool because, among other things, you get to meet Fred’s parents and Bryce’s mom. And Eddie Diggins makes a cameo. You can check out Kings and Queen here.

Read an article today which theorizes that Team Pudding Brain hopes that by supplying Ukraine we can bog Russia down until Putin quits. I guess it could work but our experience with limited war is pretty bad. In fact, it has universal failure as it’s hallmark. Don’t get me wrong: so far, the Ukrainians are standing up to it very well but I still don’t see any serious counter offensive while the Russians do continue to grind forward in the south and east. Mariupol may fall in the next few days – this would be a hard blow against Ukrainian morale and would free up a lot of Russian forces for other tasks.

As I’ve always said: either all in, or all out. Either it is worth fighting Russia over Ukraine or it isn’t. If it is, send an army. If it isn’t, stay all the way out. This is a semi-repeat of the Crimean War and a lot of the dynamics of it are very similar except that no Great Power really wants to put it on the line to stop Russia. That makes stopping Russia nearly impossible.

I finally got into Trump’s Truth Social app: once you get in (there still is a waiting list) you’ll find me under @Mark_E_Noonan. Its functionality is good: at least as good as Twitter’s. Traffic on it is low as it is being brought on line slowly. Matt is also there, of course. I think it will be worth everyone’s while to get an account…once it is fully up, Trump is going to light up politics with it.

The transgender debate really is heating up – Matt got banned from Twitter today, and I suspect it was over his statements about it. I’m probably fairly immune to blocking as my block list is approaching 40,000 on Twitter. I very quickly block all insane people I come across on Twitter…and by so doing, I greatly lessen the chances I’ll be reported when I state something against the Narrative. But, anyways, the issue is hot right now – and it was DeSantis plus the NCAA that got it front and center. By allowing an enormous male athlete to compete and win as a woman, the NCAA exposed the basic absurdity of it all. Then DeSantis went and proclaimed the 2nd place finisher (an actual woman) the winner. This shows good instincts on DeSantis’ part – this is a fight worth having and one we can win.

The go-along “Conservatives” are doing their usual – conceding the main point and then saying they’ll argue the details. One directly said it – going along with “I don’t think its fair that a transwoman competes against women but transwomen are women…”. (((needle scratch sound))) Stop. Once you say that transwomen are women you are accepting the entire trans agenda. That is the one thing they want you to say – because once you say it, you have no defense against anything else they want. It was the same thing in the same sex marriage debate – “love is love”. Once that was conceded – and most “Conservatives” did – then they were defenseless. Because to say “love is love” is to say that all things are the same. It was to say that a heterosexual relationship was the same as a homosexual relationship. And where is your argument against gay marriage? Poof, its gone. “Transwomen are women” means you cannot oppose transwomen competing in women’s sports. You’ve just said a transwoman is just the same as a woman.

We know that people with a male biology – even if covered by major surgery and chemical treatments – are different from people with a female biology. To say “transwomen are women” is not merely to say something incorrect, it is to state a lie. It simply isn’t possible. And everyone knows this – and that is why, if we fight it out, it is a winning issue for us. I’ll state right now that transgender people are as much human beings as anyone else and are entitled to live their lives as they see fit and all signs of unjust discrimination against them must be removed. But because I am tolerant and willing to accommodate transgenderism it must not follow that I will sustain absurdity. Men and women are different. They remain different regardless of what surgical or other medical actions are taken to make a man or woman appear as the opposite sex.

There is a basic unfairness – and Americans hate unfairness – in allowing a person with the natural attributes of a male to compete against women. If we press back on it, we will win. We will obtain laws – and even legal judgements – which make it clear that laws which define privileges and immunities for women only apply to biological women. That if we want to provide privileges and immunities for transgender people, it will have to be with separate laws. To me, standing firm here on the assertion that men and women are different is the first step on the road back to sanity. It’ll be the first time we ever successfully defended truth since at least before World War Two.

Open Thread

Mark Noonan22 Comments

You read about the Great Terror during the French Revolution and from your safe, prosperous American home you wonder how people could act like that? I mean, you understand that there was injustice and even cruelty in the Ancien Régime, but you still look upon it in shock. And then you read a piece in Bloomberg opinion which has an upper class twit telling us to eat lentils and let the dog die to deal with inflation.

And then you understand.

Cruelty and injustice can be dealt with – it is having people treat you with contempt that gets the blood boiling and makes cheering as a noble’s head comes off something understandable.

And there is monumental contempt for us.

When the Hunter Biden story was actively suppressed by the MSM and the Tech Giants in 2020, do recall that 50 former intelligence officials signed a letter stating that the Hunter story was Russian disinformation. It was this letter which allowed Team Pudding Brain, the DNC and the MSM to justify spiking the story. People actually got banned from social media for bringing the story up! The MSM and Tech efforts were bad enough, but the crucial thing was the bald-faced lie by the intelligence officials…without that, the rest wouldn’t have a leg to stand on. But really grasp that: the organizations charged with protecting American national security produced 50 people to lie in print. When you add in the fact that the FBI knew all about this months before it broke and not a single person there blew the whistle you really see our problem: they are against us. They hate us. They hold us in contempt.

I pointed out on Twitter earlier that the same MSM and government agencies who assure us the 2020 vote was legit are the same people who lied about Hunter Biden.

And, yet, you still can’t get through to Never Trump on this. I’m not talking about those Never Trump who have morphed into Never Republican…I’m talking about those who remain Republican and are already largely lining up behind DeSantis for 2024: they remain impervious. One of the more famous said today that he’s backing DeSantis because he doesn’t have the character flaws of Trump. Which is a sort of reverse lie: what character flaws does Trump have? The only one’s we know about are those told to us by government and MSM sources which are proven liars. I mean, seriously: maybe Trump is an immoral man, but nobody can really know. He’s been so consistently lied about that no outsider can sift it and determine what might be true or false (though we can rely on it that Trump has never broken a law – if he had, even in the most trivial manner, he’d already have been tried for it). But, also, for all we know, he’s a moral man. Sure, he had his divorces and his playboy days when young…but young billionaires tend to do that sort of thing and in the year when we have drag queen story time, I’m going to place getting busy with a super model rather low on the moral outrage scale. And rely on this: were Trump still playing around on the side, we’d know about it…I’m sure the MSM has people watching him 24/7. So if he was a bit of a cad from 25-50, he’s not today.

Dr Oz is still rolling along in the Pennsylvania Senate race. I get the doubts about him – he’s from Oprah Universe, something I hold in utter contempt. Over the years, as part of the price of being part of that universe, he staked out positions which are pretty much anathema to anyone on the right, especially on issues like “red flag” laws for gun ownership. But, I also don’t automatically condemn him for that. Lets face it: we’ve all had an education the past 7 years. Perhaps Oz has looked around and figured a few things out? He’s presenting himself as the Trumpist candidate. So far, Trump hasn’t endorsed him – but the rumor from Trump World is that Melania, who apparently is a good friend of Oz, is pushing for him. We’ll see how it comes out – to me, the most important thing is getting the (R) to victory. Is Oz that guy? Don’t know. But I can’t see how he’d be worse than Toomey…who took our Tea Party movement to get into office and then became a colorless GOPe Establishment guy once in, going as far down as to vote to convict Trump in the second trial (and that vote sunk his career in the GOP).

The war with the Ukraine continues to drag on – and Putin, so far, shows no sign of quitting. Ukraine still stands firm and there are even reports of local Ukrainian counter-attacks. OTOH, a recent video of Zelensky in Kiev looked a little photo-shopped. Like they had him in front of a green screen that they projected Kiev on to. I still hold it isn’t our fight – but it does affect the world. In one case, over food supply. The Ukraine is one of the world’s bread baskets. The Ukrainian farmers should be starting to plant their crops right about now. If they aren’t – and it looks like they’re not – then the world is going to have some serious problems in the Fall.

In other news on that front, China and India are working deals with Putin – China and India do need Russian oil and other raw materials, after all. From a geo-political standpoint, our obsession with Putin is taking us out of the global equation while a should-be ally (India) and our definite rival (India) are cutting deals which undermine America’s overall position. My view: we should have declared absolute neutrality in the Russo-Ukrainian war, holding ourselves willing to host peace talks and providing humanitarian aid to both sides.

Open Thread

Mark Noonan8 Comments

A lot of journalists are pretending to be shocked (shocked, I tell you!) that the New York Times has now confirmed the authenticity of Hunter Biden’s laptop. It is all so ridiculous – but, they’re gonna go with that. “What? I had no idea! They said it was Russian disinformation!”. Its ok to tell the story now because, well, 2020 is long over.

But as one guy I know pointed out – if the laptop is valid (and it is) then Joe Biden is compromised…lots of foreign powers have sufficient dirt on Biden’s son to pretty much force Pudding Brain to do what they want. And this goes a long way towards explaining things like the US easing sanctions on Russia so they can build a $10 billion nuclear plant for Iran. You know, Russia: the ultimate Bad Guy right now? That Russia.

China and Russia have worked out a deal to denominate their trade in yuan rather than dollars. This does put at risk the status of the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency. This is a watershed moment, folks: the final end of the post-WWII system.

Do keep in mind that the US dollar became the world’s currency because after WWII it was still at least partially backed with gold, the US was economically dominant and you could rely on the American government not confiscating your dollar-denominated assets at will. Here in 2022, the dollar is backed by nothing, the US is not economically dominant and we just demonstrated vis a vis Russia that we’ll confiscate assets (and civil asset forfeiture has been leading us this way for a while). Given all this, unless you have to trade in the USA, what purpose does a dollar have? There is a non-zero chance that the US dollar goes rather Weimar here.

A look ahead to Trump’s 2024 prospects.

The Ukraine war grinds on – I was disgusted yesterday at Congressional GOP hawkishness on the issue. And, also, I don’t get it: the GOP base is entirely unwilling to go to war over Ukraine. We don’t like Putin. We favor Ukraine…but we don’t want to fight. But there was the GOP yesterday acting like it was 2001 again. It is just stupid: and the whole Ukraine issue merely provides cover for Democrat failure. Leave it alone. Let the Democrats talk tough about it.

Open Thread

Mark Noonan18 Comments

At a rally on Saturday, President Trump said that the President should have the power to fire all Executive branch employees. This is crucial to the survival of the Republic.

Civil Service reform in the 19th century was in response to what was known as the Spoils System – to the victor goes, ya know? It was under Andrew Jackson that the Spoils System became the rule. Often at the change of an Administration there would be massive turnover in the bureaucracy as the new guy replaced everyone with his cronies. The system was used to garner and retain political support and it often led to a well-connected dimwit being in charge of some particular part of the government apparatus. It was also, of course, massively corrupt, with the jobs often going to whomever gave the most. The idea behind Civil Service reform was to institute competitive exams to ensure only highly qualified people were hired and then to insulate them from being fired at the whim of the President. It was, ultimately, part of the Progressive program to place Experts in charge who would ensure good, honest government no matter how corrupt or stupid the elected officials were.

What happened, of course, is that the bureaucracy became self-perpetuating and mostly interested in protecting itself. The worst example of this was Hoover and his FBI – taking a small part of of the Justice Department and turning it practically into an independent branch of government with its finger in every pie. This is just normal for human nature: people want more and always find ways to justify getting more. The trouble with this appetite is that if it is government, it can only get more by taking away from the people. Having a set of people who can’t be fired means you’ve got yourself what amounts to a colonial occupier always looking to protect itself by taking away ever more of what you have.

Oh, and as an aside, the competitive exam part of it? You know, the bit where we’re supposed to ensure that only smart people are in charge? Yeah, that bit ended in 1981. Class action lawsuit claimed that the exams adversely impacted minority applicants – a consent decree ending the exam requirement was entered into. No vote. No law change. So, now we’ve got bureaucrats who can’t be fired and to get hired they’re not required to be high quality. In case you were wondering why our government agencies seem increasingly stupid year by year.

The harsh reality is that government is force – the power to kill and to jail. We try to keep control of this power by putting into the hands of people who must face the voters. The Civil Service reforms practically placed the power of the Executive in the hands of people who are un-elected. Trump found out that this means when the Executive is held by someone the civil service doesn’t like, the civil service will attack the Executive. You know: the sole person empowered by the Constitution to hold Executive power. There are risks in the ending of civil service protections – but the greater risk is continuing to allow un-elected bureaucrats to rule us.

The war in the Ukraine grinds on. What is amazing me is that the Ukrainians, the MSM and the government all admit that they are engaged in a propaganda effort to boost Ukraine and suppress Russian views and yet it seems that most people believe they are getting the truth.

Here’s the reality: the amount of money well-connected Americans have made in Ukraine is the primary reason to oppose involvement.

As the polls cause Democrats to lift mask mandates, a lot of people are confused. This is because they were suckered by a very stupid story…and now that the truth is obvious, they have two choices: either willfully remain blind, or become Republicans. Most will remain willfully blind.

Guys, the biggest worry about a nuclear war is how it will effect climate change.

Open Thread

Mark Noonan31 Comments

Pudding Brain is set to surrender entirely to Iran on nuclear weapons and is now trying to curry favor or Venezuela. These guys will do anything other than pump American oil. Remember: their belief is that they must end oil to Save The Planet…and they are going to stick with that. OTOH, they are heading for a shellacking in November and so want gas prices down. Their solution is to buy the dirtiest oil in the world from two of the worst regimes in the world.

Yes, they are insane.

That’s the latest ISW map of Ukraine: the Russians have been forging ahead, but only in little bites, it would seem. The Russians, themselves, have a map showing much more Ukrainian territory under their control. I go with this as even if it is wrong, it is wrong out of caution. But you can see the Russians are clearly going for the territory east of the Dnieper River. Whether this is all Putin wants or just the prep for taking the rest remains to be seen.

Pro-Ukraine forces on social media get very mad at you if you point out that Ukraine is trying to start WWIII. I don’t think the Ukrainians want WWIII…but they are clearly willing to risk it. They pretty much have to: without outside intervention there is no way they can physically keep the Russians out: they simply don’t have sufficient weight of material for that. My bet is that they hope a bit of NATO vs Russia brinksmanship will bring Putin to the table as he won’t want a larger war. This may be correct. This may also end up in WWIII. There’s no shame in Ukraine trying this – the life of their nation is at stake. But everyone better understand what’s happening and not get all starry-eyed about Ukraine to the point where all common sense is lost.

At the University of North Texas the students (well, the idiot, Commie students) shouted down a speaker. Remember: this is Texas. Ever more Red Texas. But, its like that all over, isn’t it? No matter how Red the State, the Commies still control education and media at the bare minimum. And this is because the feckless GOP simply let it happen. Didn’t want to fight. Not the hill to die on! Well, turns out it was: and now we’re starting to see pushback against it. This is good, but it is also showing that many State GOPers are RINOs as bad as any Congressional GOPer.

This plus the Latino shift to the GOP is what terrifies the Ruling Class – and that includes the GOP part of the Ruling Class. Turns out, Latino voters are in favor of border security. This seems bizarre to Progressives, but that’s because Progressives are stupid. No sane person wants an unending flow of unvetted people coming in. And, sure, Pedro down there in south Texas doesn’t want cousin Julio deported…but he also wants good schools, well paid jobs and low crime…and he knows he can’t get that if the border isn’t secure. What do they fear? A GOP with increasingly strong working class support across racial lines starts enacting laws that working class people want: no more CRT, at least late-term abortion bans, no more teaching 3rd graders about transgender issues, secure borders, Made in America…the stuff of Establishment nightmares.

Gas here at my local Vegas gas station went from $4.09 a gallon on Monday to $4.69 a gallon today. And it was something like $3.79 a gallon about two weeks ago. This is an economic killer – we’re getting into a risk of hyperinflation. Still a low risk, but what is normally a 0.01% risk in the USA is now about a 10% risk. These prices (and the massive spikes in wheat and corn prices) are going to ripple through the economy over the next six months and I do expect a very sharp recession out of it.

Team Pudding Brain and the MSM are blaming Putin for this.

Open Thread

Mark Noonan28 Comments

In general, these days – and long before Putin invaded Ukraine – I have been opposed to alliances and supra-national organizations (NATO and UN, eg). They tend to hamstring national policy and, especially as they’ve been construed after WWII, they are usually a one-way street: we take on an unlimited obligation to defend other nations without reciprocity. We can see what that has got us: weak “allies” in Europe and around the world. We are committed to the defense of nation after nation and they are not committed to rise to our defense. So, on the whole, I would end all alliances and withdraw from all international organizations.

But if we are to retain them, then they have to be iron-clad and reciprocal. If we’re going to rush to Poland to defend them from Russia, then I want the Poles to send an army to help us fight China. Any such alliance should really be spelled out: how much GDP is spent on defense, what sort of military force each party is to maintain as a bare minimum and plans already made for deployment anywhere around the world as circumstances warrant.

Furthermore, if we go to war with any nation, then I want us to impose the full financial cost of the war on them after they are defeated. No more free rides: no more forcing us to go to war and then after putting us through death and destruction, we rebuild them. No: they can rebuild themselves while also shelling out 10% of their annual GDP to us for 50 years after the war.

Aside: I’m tired of the American Empire.

As for Ukraine: the Russians seem to still be grinding ahead with some big gains in the south and nearly none in the north. I think the Russians took too big a bite of the apple: going after geographic locations rather than seeking to destroy Ukrainian military power. But I suspect there’s a reason for this: Putin wants the Ukraine physically intact as far as possible. A great deal of Ukraine’s military force is concentrated in point defense of major cities: to quickly destroy this military power would have taken massive, destructive bombardment of the cities. This is cruel, but clever tactics on the part of the Ukrainians – they are essentially using their civil population as a human shield, knowing that any civilian killed by Russia will be written down as a war crime, thus increasing sympathy for Ukraine internationally. But I suspect we are getting close to the end: the increasingly shrill calls for a NATO no-fly zone over Ukraine (which would amount to a de-facto declaration of war by NATO against Russia) indicates that the Russians do have air supremacy and the Ukrainians are simply being ground down by superior weight – unless the pressure can be removed, it is only a matter of time.

On the other hand, some are saying that Russia is running out of first-rate material. Not so sure about that: and in second-rate material, Russia is well supplied – but that second-rate stuff is old style artillery, the use of which would cause immense destruction and loss of life. Meanwhile, there is some growing domestic opposition in Russia. Putin better wrap this thing up pretty quick. I don’t think his power is at risk, but the longer the war drags on, the more difficult it will be for him.

What has astounded me is the number of voices on the Right who are taking Ukrainian propaganda at face value. All of a sudden, they’re quoting MSM sources as if they are reliable. I think this is psychological for some of them: being overtly pro-Ukrainian provides distance from the allegedly pro-Russia Trump and supporters (a ridiculous view, but it exists out there). In short, it allows these people to make friends with their Progressives pals again. There is one thing which can save the Democrat’s political bacon in November: the GOP signing on to a Biden war for Ukraine. I think some on the right are willing just that: they fear the sort of GOP which is likely to emerge after the mid-terms…far more Trumpist, far more America-First, far more conservative (they despise GOP moves to enact pro-life and ant-CRT laws at the State level). They hate people like Greene and Boebert; and they can see in the GOP candidates more and more like them. And they hate them because the more we get people like that, the more the GOP will be forced to enact laws the GOP base wants. A war with Russia may deflect or at least delay that.

The joke of the week is that Putin is going to get the Nobel Prize for medicine for having cured Covid. Its like it dropped off a cliff, isn’t it? People were asking where the ubiquitous Fauci had got to and one guy looked it up: basically reduced to appearances on public access cable. The (political) Science has spoken: Covid is political death for Democrats and so we won’t be hearing much about it. At least, not right now: if Ukraine folds in the next week to ten days, they might have to bring it back to distract us from rising prices. We’re up a bit more than 20 cents a gallon for gas in the past week while oil and food staples climb to near-record highs.

In the world of unintended consequences: people around the world are looking about for alternatives to financial securities which can be frozen or seized. You know: like the Russian assets have been. A lot of people thought it cool the way Apple Pay was shutdown for Russians with a flip of the switch at Apple…but a lot of us were like, “WTF – they can freeze me out of my money if they decide they don’t like me”. America is kept going financially by people buying our bonds…and they will keep doing that, at least for now. But if you’re a foreign government or rich guy, do you want your money tied up in an asset that the United States can destroy at a whim? If the world does stop buying our bonds, then we’re financially ruined. And I mean completely. It would make the Great Depression look like a minor correction: one of the strength of Rule of Law societies is the security of wealth under it…that no matter what happens, your property is safe unless you actually break the laws of your host nation (or the host nation of your assets). Now, its funny to watch them seize yachts of Russian oligarchs…but where was the law in that? Some decree of some official. No court. No charges. No conviction: just stroke of the pen, your property is gone.

And that brings me to a point I’ve made recently and for years: national wealth is not dollars. It is what you make, mine and grow. Russia doesn’t just provide us oil, but also fertilizers and other crucial materials. Of course, a huge amount of our manufactured goods come from overseas. Suppose these people decide not to take our dollars in payment? What do we have then? We don’t even seem to make basic things like screwdrivers and scissors any longer.

Gold standard, guys: we have to get back on the gold standard. If our money is backed by gold, everyone on God’s green Earth will accept it no matter how much they hate us. And we must go back to Protection. No more of this “free trade” chimera…massive tariffs to force a rebirth of American farming, manufacturing and mining.