Blogs For Victory

That is the consensus – and looking at the polls, there’s not much one could say otherwise. Keeping in mind my view that the electorate on 11/8/16 might be very different from what we expect, the bottom line is that all factors in the election indicate that Hillary will win. Probably a bit narrowly in the popular vote, but with a crushing margin in the Electoral College. Right now, there’s no indication of a collapse for down-ballot Republicans, but that could emerge if people decide not only that Trump is unacceptable, but that if we’re to return the Clinton dynasty to power, might as well go all-in and give it a Democrat Congress.

But, Trump could still win this. All he needs do is complete the un-Conservative circle he started to make in the primaries. Remember, Trump is not committed to Conservatism – he has nothing to lose by alienating Conservatives, especially as such a large number of prominent Conservatives are firmly #NeverTrump, and some are rapidly drifting towards #ImWithHer. To be sure, Trump has offered Conservatives some olive branches – he’s pledged some rather solidly Conservative judicial appointments, offered a series of tax cuts and some rather substantial regulatory reform in order to bring Conservatives on board. It hasn’t worked – and, I think, it won’t work. Because Trump is not a movement Conservative – in other words, because he hasn’t been selected, burnished and propelled along by the gate-keepers of Conservatism – Conservatives, as such, will not come over to him. So, what, then? Simple – go full on populist.

Hasn’t he already done that? Not really. He’s done the border security/fight the terrorists part of populism as well as rumbled about trade deals and such…but to go full populist he’d have to start offering some specific goodies to the people.

Earlier today on Twitter a friend posted a bit noting that Trump’s support among young Americans is lower than even Nixon’s was – and Nixon, remember, was busily fighting the Vietnam War which required a certain number of young people to be drafted and shipped off to get shot at. Rather difficult to gain the love of people in that situation. It immediately occurred to me that Trump could massively shake up that problem by simply proposing to annul student loan debt. Hillary – propelled by Bernie – has made some noises about offering some relief on student loans but if Trump were to go her one better and say that such debts will simply be cancelled, a very large number of people would immediately be grateful to him. Now, if he were a Conservative he’d couple this with a proposal to abolish the student loan program, but he’s not a Conservative…so, he just goes with annulment. And, remember, whatever Hillary says about student loans, her bit is still keeping the debt there and providing mechanisms where the indebted youngsters can become government serfs in return for debt relief…Trump would be offering to let them off; she can’t top that. And running as Mrs Responsible in the campaign, she can’t even try to top it.

Other things Trump can do:

Propose a hefty hike in SS benefits for current retirees – for a lot of years there has been no or minimal COLA hikes in SS benefits because, officially, there hasn’t been inflation. But, of course, there has been and a lot of elderly people are feeling the pinch. Offer a 10% hike in 2017, and a lot of oldsters will sit up and take notice…and it would completely kill any Democrat attempt to portray Trump as someone who is against Social Security.

Propose a big increase in the child tax credit – bump it to five thousand dollars per child. Parents who are raising children are heavily burdened financially; something like this would be an immense relief for them, and a huge incentive to vote Trump.

Propose a 20% reduction in the number of non-essential government employees. Remember them? They are the people who were furloughed when the budget shut down happened…and everyone asked, “if they are non-essential, why do we have them, at all?”. Make an issue of it. Say that it’ll help pay for the boost in SS benefits. It’s a bit of a class warfare thing – in this case, the Government Class against the Governed Class. Given the contempt most people hold government in, this is a winning issue…make Hillary defend non-essential government employees with their fat pensions.

Propose that refugee settlement and Section 8 housing be moved to the high-end neighborhoods. This is another bit of populist class warfare…and it ties into the fact that all those calling anti-refugee people racists are living in neighborhoods the refugees won’t be settled in…and they are the same people who call for more housing aid for the poor. Ok. Give it to them – where it hurts. Make them defend the current system of shoving poor people into poor neighborhoods…

You can probably come up with more along these lines. The whole idea is, as I said, to complete the Trump process – but with real teeth. As I’ve said from the beginning, Trump is no one’s answer…but Hillary is everyone’s corrupt nightmare. If we’re going to have this, then let’s have it in a way which at least gives a bit to the people and sticks it a bit to those who have been busily ruining the nation. The people are angry – such a program as this plays into it.

Now, do keep in mind that I remain Conservative – Distributist to the core. But I’m not going to get Conservatism or Distributism from Hillary or Trump. I’ve no dog in this hunt – this is just me pondering how Trump could still win this. One thing which has struck me among Conservative pundits is their inability to think these days – Trump has seemingly blinded them. They are so worked up at how un-Conservative Trump is that they have lost their ability to ponder what is happening and how out of this nettle, Trump vs Hillary, we might yet eventually pluck a flower which is Conservative government. We have to roll with it in 2016 – and hope for better days in the future.

I had been thinking for a while that with the choices before us, people should be cut a lot of slack in how they chose. I still tend to hold to this, but recent news has caused me to modify my thinking a bit. Over the past couple weeks, I’ve seen people just get downright silly in how they are viewing the Trump vs Hillary campaign. People are increasingly staking out extreme positions on both sides and as heels dig in, minds shut down.

Even in the worst set of alternatives, it is up to people to think carefully over the entire situation and try to come to a conclusion based upon a rational understanding of all the facts. There are facts – about Hillary and Trump as well as the other candidates – which even if they can’t immediately determine the best course of action, can at least tell us what the worst course of action would be. In two bad alternatives, one is going to be worse than the other. Even in the thinking that Trump and Hillary represent heart attack and cancer, you can still make a choice – heart attack might immediately kill you, but if you can survive the immediate attack, you’ll be ok. Cancer won’t immediately kill you, but it is much harder to cure than a heart attack. If forced to choose one, you’re going to just have to figure what set of risks you are willing to undergo in the hopes that in the long term you’ll be ok. Now, add in this: the heart attack happens whens someone is there to immediately call 911 and get you to a hospital – the cancer, on the other hand, is already metastasizing and this latest bit is going to get into your lymph nodes. Choose.

Someone did – and they appear to have chosen the cancer.

One-time GOP gubernatorial candidate and current Hewlett-Packard CEO Meg Whitman has endorsed Hillary Clinton for President. The stated reason for this being that Trump is a budding Hitlerian nightmare who will destroy American democracy. Unlike Hillary Clinton, who’s commitment to the truth and to scrupulously following the laws enacted by American democracy is so well known.

I can’t, of course, look into Whitman’s mind and soul and see the real reason she’s decided to back the hopelessly corrupt, completely dishonest and incompetent Hillary Clinton. I could easily understand why Whitman would refuse to vote for Trump – but her stated reason for backing Hillary against Trump simply isn’t rational. I can only suspect that Whitman’s actions are motivated by sheer stupidity…or that her allegiance was never to the Republican Party, but rather to the Ruling Class of which she is a member. I do discount stupidity as the motivator as her successful business career indicates she’s at least literate (given her advantages, the mere ability to read would ensure she rose high in the corporate world) and thus has been able to read the papers and know that the person she’s going to vote for – and raise massive amounts of money for – is corrupt to the bone.

People do ask me what I’m going to do on November 8th – I always answer the same way: I don’t know who I’ll vote for, but I certainly will not vote for Hillary. This is because of the candidates for President (including minor party candidates) Hillary is clearly the worst possible choice (with some exceptions to be listed below). Trump has done a lot of very disreputable things over the years – some very fast and lose activities in business which an honorable man wouldn’t do. Additionally, he has made a lot of statements which are simply unacceptable. On the other hand, Hillary has deliberately and maliciously lied over and over again to the American people and these lies have served to protect and advance her quest for wealth and political power. A bit of sharp practice by Trump to make a buck simply does not compare to the kind of behavior that Hillary has engaged in – and his vulgar statements, bad as they are, are just words…stupid words, bad words, words which ought not to be spoken…but, just words. Words don’t hurt any man or woman with any sense of self respect.

Outside of moral questions, even putting it in terms of who will be most baleful to the eventual attempt to restore American greatness still comes down on Trump’s side. Hillary has already participated as First Lady and an elected and appointed official of government in undermining the rule of law in the United States. She has already weakened America’s position in the world. She has already coddled America’s enemies and dismayed America’s allies. The direct consequences of policies she advanced led to the deaths of four Americans in Benghazi. The direct consequences of policies she advanced have Iran taking over Iraq, ISIS on a rampage in the Middle East and a flood of refugees into the West…with the real refugees having to flee their homes because of failed policies Hillary backed, and fake refugees taking advantage of the crisis to infiltrate western nations. Trump has never held elective or appointive office – what he may do while in office is unknown. He might turn out as bad or even worse than Hillary but no one can possibly know this. We know what Hillary has done. She is giving every indication that she will keep on doing what she has done. What she has done has proven disastrous to the United States and the world. Putting Hillary into office means ratifying certain disaster. Putting Trump into office means rolling the dice.

Times come where there is no fast and easy answer to a question. This is one of those times. You can choose your heart attack, or your cancer. You can choose a bout of the ‘flu (Green Party), or a bad hangover (Libertarians). You can also choose to not decide – don’t vote for anyone, or write in a name. You still can vote for Hillary for rational reasons – these being either in hopes that the GOP will then clean up in the 2018 midterms; that as the economy is likely to enter recession and it’d be better if a Democrat caught the blame for it; that the GOP is finished and it is better to burn it down in 2016 in hopes of a new party by 2020. If any of those are your reasons, then I’ve got no problem with your choice. But whatever you choose, don’t try to sell me on the notion that Trump is so demonstrably bad that Hillary is a better choice. He’s not and she isn’t.

It is, essentially, the question asked of Trump and his supporters all the time. As for Trump, it appears that the best answer would be, “not much”. But I would like to point out that the people who are using Captain Khan against Trump are the same people who called Captain Kahn and his fellow soldiers, sailors, airmen and Marines War Criminals. Have you forgotten? Don’t you remember from about late 2003 until January 20th, 2009 that our military was derided as full of stupid people who couldn’t get into college and thus got “stuck” in the military? Don’t you remember the endless stories about how our soldiers were behaving like beasts? That the overly-soft prison at Gitmo was compared unfavorably to GULAG? Does Code Pink strike a bell? ANSWER? Does anything that happened as far back as last week matter to anyone any more?

I’d much prefer we lived in a polity where common decency was observed – you know, where people at least tried to tell the truth; didn’t exaggerate and/or flat out lie for political advantage; treated the opposition with respect due to all human beings. But, we don’t live in that sort of polity. I date the vileness in American politics to the Bork confirmation hearings where Ted Kennedy – the liberal “Lion” of the Senate – actually got up and said that Robert Bork would approve laws which allowed Gestapo-like cops to break down American doors at will. From that point on, for the left, there have been no standards of decency – you can say whatever you want about your opponents, launch the most disgusting slanders, and it is up to the opponent to prove it isn’t true. Of course, this only works one way – only liberals are allowed to be disgusting…non-liberals have to just sit there and take it and never, ever answer back in kind.

When the TEA Party emerged in 2009, it was made up of excessively polite, middle class Americans who would never hurt a fly. It was presented as a racist, fascist, violent organization out to destroy all that is good and true. No surprise at all that a good number of those TEA Partiers have taken the measure of things and figured out that if you’re to be hanged for a sheep, might as well go for it all. Trump is the long-delayed response to the unfair, nauseating way the left has operated for decades.

I don’t like this, at all. There was a time in the past when I would have gotten right into the insult-fest, but I’ve come to realize that getting down in the muck with Progressives just gets me dirty. But I’m also not going to wring my hands in horror over what Trump and his people say – whatever they say, it doesn’t hold a candle to the things Progressives say, and have said for ages, for all the world as if insulting people is part of normal, political discourse. Maybe Trump’s mouth helps him get his clock cleaned on November 8th, maybe it helps him to victory. I don’t know, and I don’t much care. I’d like to see a return to decency – but any such return will now require both sides to quit it…and given that the left has been doing it longer and worse, I think it is up to them to realize they’ve gone too far, for too long.

Of all the Convention speakers, I think I caught about 30 seconds of some Democrat droning on about something as the TV channels switched between re-runs of some doctor soap opera and Fixer Upper on HGTV. In other words, I didn’t in the least care to hear what a bunch of people I repose no trust in had to say. On the other hand, following along on Twitter with the jokesters was hilarious. I am certain, however, that Hillary came out 2nd best in it and it was because of Obama’s assertion that Hillary is the best qualified person in history to run for President…if that’s the case, why didn’t the Democrats nominate her in 2008?. I think normal people who don’t follow politics will consider the whole thing a farce. But, we’ll see, shan’t we?

Along with following the jokes on Twitter I did notice plenty of highly educated, very experienced Conservative political pundits wailing and moaning and gnashing their teeth of the Democrats’ new-found respect for patriotic sentiments. Oh, my goodness, went the comments – because of the idiot GOP voters, the Democrats get to be the patriots! This pretty much finished many Conservative political pundits for me – for crying out loud, it’s not like the Democrats are being truthful here, guys! Give me a break! They are just lying – as they always do – in order to wow the suckers. Perhaps it will wow the suckers but if your definition of “love of country” is “make patriotic noises if it’ll help you win votes”, then I want no more to do with you. The bottom line is that we’ve lost and lost and lost and now got Trump because the GOP has played it’s own base for fools. We – the run-of-the-mill, average, everyday GOP/Conservative Americans – wanted certain things done. Certain fights to be had (even if we lost them); certain principals to be upheld; certain demands to be made and adhered to come heck or high water. The GOP leadership didn’t do this – they said they’d do it, and then as soon as they had garnered our votes, they went off and surrendered. And, so, Trump. Suck it up, sunshine – Trump isn’t our fault, he’s yours.

Who will win? Probably Hillary – she’s got the money and the political infrastructure. Both candidates are terribly unpopular and it may come down to a low turn-out election where Hillary’s superior resources can drag enough people to the polls. But, no one can really tell – it is notable that about 10 days ago, Rasmussen was the only pollster showing Trump ahead…now that almost all other polls show Trump ahead, Rasmussen has him behind. I’m putting this down to what I’ve expected all along with 2016 polling – no one can be sure who to poll. So many regular voters are disgusted and so many irregular voters are (at least in theory) excited that it is going to be very hard to detect who is really ahead. Some pollsters are very smart and they may be able to create an accurate model of the electorate…but we won’t know, for sure, if any of them have done that until after the election. To be sure, if polls show Hillary consistently up by 5 or 10 by late October, then it’d be safe to bet the she wins on November 8th…but even then, not 100% for sure. And ditto for vice-versa.

I’ve still no dog in this hunt – and I’m still unsure of what to do. I’ll probably remain unsure what to do until November 8th…after I’ve skipped past the Presidential contest to spend a great deal of time carefully going over the crucial city judge election contests and then stare blankly at the screen for a while, weeping softly… But as the co-author of The Worst President in History: the Legacy of Barack Obama, I will state firmly that neither of the two candidates will be as bad as Obama has been (and have you picked up a copy? I just re-read it a bit and it’s quite good…and selling fairly well for an independent publication with no advertising budget…just go on over to http://www.worstpresidentbook.com and buy it, today!). Part of this is because of the massive damage Obama has already done – hard to burn down a building a second time, ya dig? But mostly because Obama really has been a horror from day one…how in heck we elected someone out of the corrupt Chicago Democrat machine will always amaze me. If you haven’t read the book then you are likely unaware of the level of just sheer graft that has gone on – and while Hillary and Trump are not likely to be watchdogs against graft, it would take some spectacular efforts on their part to go beyond Obama’s cronyism. They can’t possibly be more un-Constitutional than Obama because there’s pretty much no provision of the Constitution that Obama hasn’t tried to violate (often with great success). Both of them are also quite old – we might luck out and find that either of them wind up a one term President. We can deal with four years of either of them – at all events, fixing this country is a generational thing and if we don’t get started until 2021, it won’t be that much harder a task.

And, so, off to the general election we go. Will there be debates? Not sure – some are saying Trump will shy away from them, fearful of Hillary’s razor sharp intellect (no, seriously; some people are saying that – stop laughing!). Some are saying Hillary will shy away from them because she doesn’t want Trump bringing up her rank corruption to a national audience (for a very large number of people, it would be the first time such things as the e mail scandal were really presented to them). It might make an interesting argument – what with Trump demanding that “unfair” MSMers be excluded and Hillary saying she can’t appear on stage with someone like Trump.

Trump will shoot his mouth off. Count on it. Each time he does, it will be announced that his most recent statement has finished him. File those with the 1,000 times his candidacy has already been declared dead because of his verbal monstrosities. It might be that his mouth eventually sinks him, but it hasn’t so far so don’t count on it doing so in the future. Hillary is going to run a “Rose Garden” campaign – pretty much acting like she’s already President, already has the election in the bag, giving carefully scripted interviews (but perhaps not a single press conference – too much risk that someone will ask a question not pre-vetted by the Hillary campaign)…and leaving it to surrogates to hammer Trump relentlessly. Trump will relentlessly bait Hillary (and Obama) hoping to make them lose their cool at some point – we’ll see how disciplined they are. Trump’s only hope is if several million people who don’t normally vote – or who normally vote Democrat – come his way. To really get them to the polls, he’ll have to build up some sort of good ground game…we’ll see if he’s disciplined enough to do that (or at least smart enough to let the pros do that for him).

I expect the House to remain Republican, and for the Senate to probably remain GOP, as well (looks like we might lose one or two, but will probably pick up Reid’s seat in NV…so, a net loss of one). If somehow Hillary pulls of a landslide, it might be different – but even then it might not. Nixon won in a blowout in 1972 with no significant change in Congress.