Rove’s Electoral Prediction

Matt Margolis7 Comments

Love him or hate, you can’t argue that Rove knows his stuff. So, what does he say about how this Tuesday will turn out?

It comes down to numbers. And in the final days of this presidential race, from polling data to early voting, they favor Mitt Romney.

He maintains a small but persistent polling edge. As of yesterday afternoon, there had been 31 national surveys in the previous seven days. Mr. Romney led in 19, President Obama in seven, and five were tied. Mr. Romney averaged 48.4%; Mr. Obama, 47.2%. The GOP challenger was at or above 50% in 10 polls, Mr. Obama in none

Being under 50 percent is a bad place for an incumbent to be in. The bottom line is Obama is in a weak position with just two and half weekdays left before Election Day.

Some will say, “But what about Ohio?” or “National polls are irrelevant,” or “Look at the early voting!” Well, let’s look.

Adrian Gray, who oversaw the Bush 2004 voter-contact operation and is now a policy analyst for a New York investment firm, makes the point that as of Tuesday, 530,813 Ohio Democrats had voted early or had requested or cast an absentee ballot. That’s down 181,275 from four years ago. But 448,357 Ohio Republicans had voted early or had requested or cast an absentee ballot, up 75,858 from the last presidential election.

That 257,133-vote swing almost wipes out Mr. Obama’s 2008 Ohio victory margin of 262,224. Since most observers expect Republicans to win Election Day turnout, these early vote numbers point toward a Romney victory in Ohio. They are also evidence that Scott Jennings, my former White House colleague and now Romney Ohio campaign director, was accurate when he told me that the Buckeye GOP effort is larger than the massive Bush 2004 get-out-the-vote operation.

By no means am I suggesting Romney supporters take victory for granted. We’ll need a massive effort to counter Obama’s ground game.  But, how are things looking from a combination of statistical and anecdotal evidence?

My prediction: Sometime after the cock crows on the morning of Nov. 7, Mitt Romney will be declared America’s 45th president. Let’s call it 51%-48%, with Mr. Romney carrying at least 279 Electoral College votes, probably more.

Donate now to give Mitt as much help as possible for a massive ground game. We can win this.

November Surprise

Cluster72 Comments

Of which there could be two. The first surprise would be the most damning and that is the possible revelation and existence of emails ordering counter terrorism groups in the area of Benghazi to stand down, which of course would be tantamount to outright sacrificing the lives of those four Americans. If this is true, this is grounds for impeachment. Honestly, I hope it’s not true. I don’t want to think that this administration, or any administration, would be so callous with American lives in what is obviously very dangerous territory all in an effort to shield criticism from their own foreign policy efforts. It has been over 6 weeks since our Ambassador was murdered and the President has yet to hold a press conference, or even answer a difficult question on the subject. He did however have the courage to blame America for the first couple of weeks.

The next surprise is hardly a surprise to anyone who has been paying attention, but will be terribly inconvenient to the President and that is the corruption, bankruptcies and questionable stock sales involved in the green energy stimulus money. More and more is coming to light and ensnaring the Senate Majority leader Harry Reid and his sons as well. I have a feeling that time will reveal that the Obama regime may go down in history as the most corrupt and incompetent administration ever.

Battleground Pennsylvania

Matt Margolis13 Comments

It’s on in the Keystone State. A new memo from the Romney campaign talks confirms:

Rendell: ‘Startling upset’ for Romney ‘a possibility’ in Pennsylvania
When Governor Ed Rendell made these comments last week, he was clearly sending a desperate call to Chicago for help in the Keystone State.  At the time, his comments were met with derision and scorn from the Obama High Command who were feeling secure in their own.

[…]

While the Obama campaign would like to wish it is 2008, the reality is that they are now forced to “play defense” in least six states (Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Colorado, New Hampshire, Iowa and Wisconsin) that they once believed were “safe” Obama wins.

As the Romney-Ryan message continues to resonate and GOP momentum continues to build, we are adding Pennsylvania to the long list of states where we are expending significant resources in order to bring real recovery to the country, while continuing to implement and fund full-scale efforts in all the target states.

From Battleground Watch, we learn that both campaigns and Crossroads Super PAC are spending money and sending resources to Pennsylvania.

To me, this news is bigger than just Pennsylvania. Obama’s support from 2008 is eroding everywhere. Pennsylvania, while technically a swing state, has been reliably Democrat. Obama’s loss of support there is not happening independently of everywhere else. In my estimation, it can’t be this close in Pennsylvania without Mitt Romney having at least a small but comfortable lead in Ohio. With a week to go the Obama campaign shouldn’t have to be defending formerly safe territory. Clearly, the momentum still is in Mitt’s favor.

Our new eBook, “The Audacity of Harry Reid” has been reduced in price to $0.99 until Election Day!

Back in 2008, I privately knew that when John McCain pulled out of Michigan that disaster was coming. While Obama hasn’t officially pulled of any battleground states, word is the Obama campaign have diverted resources from swing states he was counting on (like Florida) for Ohio.

It may still come down to Ohio, and even there Mitt’s on the rise. But if Mitt can pull off a victory in Pennsylvania, Ohio won’t even matter.

Sandy Open Thread

Mark Noonan34 Comments

When I went to bed last night it was clear that Sandy was going to be devastating – but waking this morning it is clearly much worse than feared in the dark of the night.

I haven’t found any central website for Sandy relief efforts but I’m sure its only a matter of time – meanwhile, you can donate to the Red Cross, Salvation Army, Catholic Charities or whatever organization you believe will best get the help to those afflicted.  Don’t forget to pray for those who are suffering – and for those who are on fire and rescue duty under very difficult conditions.

Does Pennsylvania Matter?

Mark Noonan32 Comments

It might – from Politico:

Mitt Romney’s super PAC, Restore our Future, is launching an 11th-hour ad blitz in Pennsylvania, POLITICO has learned.

ROF is going up Tuesday with a $2.1 million ad buy across every Pennsylvania market, including pricey Philadelphia…

That is a lot of money – and it wouldn’t be expended in Pennsylvania unless someone thought there was a shot at it.  Also, that its going in to Philadelphia is crucial.  As experts like Barone point out lately, Romney is doing very well in the affluent suburbs of major urban areas – places where Democrats tend to do pretty well and where, if they go Republican, lead to astounding GOP victories.

We’ll see how this comes out in just 8 days…

Does Ohio Matter?

Cluster80 Comments

The election is near, the debates are over, the candidates have laid out their positions, so it all boils down to the numbers now. Today’s electoral map shows Obama with 237 “safe” electoral votes and Romney with 206 supposedly “safe” electoral votes. But are any electoral votes safe this year? I contend not, especially for Obama. However, let’s assume that Rasmussen is right with these “safe” predictions, as they historically have been, and analyze the path to 270 for each candidate. First of all, let’s look at Romney. Current polling has Romney up by 2 in Florida, up by 4 in Colorado, and up by 3 in Virginia. In all of those states, Obama is polling less than 50%, which historically means that the independents will break for Romney, so I think it is a safe bet to move those states, and their 51 electoral votes into the Romney column, giving Romney now 257 electoral votes – just 13 votes  shy of victory. On the bubble for Romney is New Hampshire and their 4 electoral votes and of where Romney leads by 2, Iowa and their 6 electoral votes and of where Romney is tied with Obama, and WI and their 10 electoral votes, and again where Romney and Obama are tied. But again, in WI, NH and IA, Obama is polling less than 50% so the independents in those states should break for Romney giving him the win in all three states. Under this scenario, Romney wins the Presidency without OH.

Obama on the other hand has lost FL, VA, & CO, that is pretty much a given, so how does the path to 270 look for Obama? With 237 safe electoral votes, he is 33 shy, meaning he will need Ohio to win. Excluding Ohio, all the other toss up states; IA, NH, NV, & WI, will only bring him 26 electoral votes, and that assumes he wins NH where Romney leads. This also assumes Obama wins WI where he is tied with Romney and polling under 50%, so there is no question that Obama needs OH much more so than Romney. If Romney wins WI, this race is over, and considering that Gov. Walker just held off a fierce recall battle, and that Paul Ryan hails from the Badger state, I like Romney’s chances.

UPDATE, by Mark Noonan:  October 29th, 2012 Rasmussen Ohio poll – Romney 50, Obama 48.  Getting that sinking feeling Democrats?

Secession Can Keep Us Together

Mark Noonan23 Comments

Victor Davis Hanson writes another brilliant piece and it goes along with a thought I’ve had for a while – first, a quote:

…As those who run the nation state become ever more estranged, we yearn for the safety and security of our own neighbors, who seem to think, speak, and live more as we do. In other words, we are unhappy residents of Hellenistic Greece who dream of the romance of the lost face-to-face city state, or the bread-and-circuses turba of fourth-century Rome, who feel that their fellow citizens in Gaul, Numidia, and Pontus seem hardly Roman. These days the problem is not just that an Italian wants to leave the EU, but that a Florentine or Venetian would prefer to leave Italy itself. A Texan not only wants us out of the U.N., but may feel he is already out of the U.S. Britain may want no part of the EU, but Scotland wants no part of Britain…

Hanson speaks of a return of medievalism – not in the sense of living in castles but in the sense of extreme localism.  That, at bottom, is what feudalism was:  local control of most of the power while the central authority had least power.  This developed in the post-Roman world because the Roman government could not carry out its self-appointed, imperial tasks.  The Roman government, that is, decayed – it became bloated, inefficient, corrupt (sound familiar?) and while trying to micro-manage affairs of the Empire eventually lost the ability to even defend the Empire.  People were forced back on their own resources and the feudal lords were really, in origin, no more than whomever could effectively organize local people for self defense.

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Anti-Mormonism Rises on the Left

Mark Noonan22 Comments

Legal Insurrection has an excellent run-down on the rank bigotry developing on the left against the Mormon religion.  Its all rather nauseating but very typical of the left these days – they probably don’t know much about it but they know (a) that it is socially conservative and (b) a man representing it is going to beat their guy.  So, all bets are off and there is no bottom to the gutter.

To me, Romney’s religion is a non-issue – just as much as Obama’s personal religious beliefs are a non-issue.  Living in a pluralist republic, there is simply no other way to go about it.  Unless I want to say that I’ll only vote for a Catholic of the most orthodox stripe, I must allow that people I vote for will have various differences with me.  What matters to me is whether or not, on balance, the candidate is more favorable to my views than the other candidate.  In this, Romney has pledged himself to a set of policy proposals largely in tune with my view – but not in all cases.  I just kind of have to lump it on the areas where I disagree with Romney while working elsewhere to advance those views of mine which Romney refuses.

Its not like that on the left – it doesn’t, for instance, matter that Mormons are tremendously generous with their time and money and that Mormon-majority communities tend to be clean, safe and law-abiding.  All that is thrown over the side because Mormons dare to have the slightest disagreement with some aspects of leftist ideology.  For the left it is all or nothing – you are either 100% with them or they will be 100% against you.  Romney has sinned against liberal orthodoxy and must be destroyed, and his entire religion along with him.  I hope Mormons have tough skins – Catholics and Evangelicals have been dealing with this for a long time (and Catholics for longer than anyone else in the United States).

At the end of the day, however, these are the actions of desperate, losing people.  Their cause is foundering and their man Obama seems set to lead them off the electoral cliff.  As things get worse for the left, we can expect the howls of bigotry to grow louder.  Get ready for it and learn to endure it – there’s nothing we can do to stop it.