Election Eve Projections

Matt Margolis27 Comments

Battleground Watch: Romney 331, Obama 207

Ali A. Akbar: Romney 285, Obama 253

Karl Rove: Romney 285, Obama 253

Joe Trippi: Obama 303, Romney 235

James Pethokoukis: Romney 301, Obama 237

Michael Barone: Romney 315, Obama 223

Baseball Crank: Romney 271, Obama 267

UPDATE: In anticipation of lots of Election Day coverage off the blog, I’ve added my Twitter feed and Ali Akbar’s to the sidebar.

UPDATE , by Mark Noonan:  Well, here we are – on the eve.  Yes, I’ve had the jitters – but one must keep things in perspective.  Prayer calms the soul.  Try it, if you’re feeling nervous.

Obama’s rally today was half empty – the sure sign that the bloom is completely off the rose and this is not 2008.  Only a 2008 type turnout (or a completely unexpected collapse in GOP voting) can really pull it off for Obama.  Obama’s team and their lapdog media are playing a gigantic mind game with us – touting their early vote and their ground game not so much in confidence that they have it in the bag but in hopes that it will depress us and lower our turnout.  The truth of the matter is that the Democrat early voting totals have collapsed from 2008 – Pennsylvania, Minnesota and Michigan genuinely are in play…and even if they do wind up falling to Obama it will be by tiny margins…and that drop in vote will translate all across the nation, ensuring that Obama loses every 2008 State he won by 10-12 percentage points or less – that, by itself, gets Romney to 266 electoral votes, which is the bottom I see for him tomorrow:  he won’t get less than that (yes, Obama will lose Ohio).  This means that all Romney need do is win one of NH, PA, MI, MN, IA, WI, CO and NV.   Romney is leading in CO, tied in PA, WI and IA and within the margin of error (with Obama under 50%) in the rest.

But, still, there is that chance that Obama wins.  So be it.  If the American people want four more years of Obama, then God bless us all and we’ll just have to endure it.  It will be real bad next year no matter who wins – but if Obama wins then it will not only be much worse but much more extended in time.  And we’ll get to look forward to utterly crushing the Democrats in the 2014 mid-terms (always deadly for the party in power in the 2nd term of a President – see 2006 for confirmation).  And then as 2016 we’ll get to choose between Ryan, Sandoval, Rubio, Santorum, Jindal, Haley, West, Perry…while Democrats get to choose between Hillary, Biden and Cuomo.  I’m telling you, nothing but fun for us in there (and this leaves aside the fact that Benghazi is already a cancer eating at the Obama Presidency…if he “wins” tomorrow then he loses).

I don’t think that will happen.  I trust my fellow Americans – I trust the fact that Democrats I know are nervous and “confident” that Obama will win it narrowly while Republicans are thinking it may even come out as a landslide.  I am encouraged by Latina Americans I know personally who are voting for Romney…talk about Obama’s demographic collapsing in front of his eyes.  It could be a landslide – it could be a big win; we’ll have to see.

God bless you all (yes even you liberals out there) and good luck to all of us tomorrow.

 

Really? Sabato Says Obama Wins Handily

Matt Margolis42 Comments

Yup, the same guy who predicted John Kerry would win in 2004, and said that Bush needed a miracle to win reelection, is saying that Obama wins in handily.

His key arguments for the 11th hour shifts in the battleground states are as follows

  • Hurricane Sandy provided him with a boost.
  • The last jobs report, by not being horrible, was good for him.

Let’s consider these arguments.

I can’t buy the argument that the jobs report, which had the unemployment go up, thus pointing it higher today than it was when Obama took office, was a net positive for Obama. A mixed jobs report isn’t likely to change any minds either way, in my opinion, and hardly changes the fundamentals: There are fewer people employed today than when Obama took office, people are making less money, and more people are on food stamps.

Now, the bigger point: Hurricane Sandy. While one could make the case that Romney’s momentum was halted for a few days, I find it harder to suggest a shift in momentum in Obama’s favor. Even after the first days when Obama benefited from positive coverage, the aftermath of Sandy’s wrath has once again exposed the flaws in the federal government’s disaster response… after Obama said everything was going well.

So, both of these arguments don’t provide a strong case for an 11th hour shift in Obama’s favor. Michael Barone argues that if you look at the fundamentals, there is potential for a Romney landslide. I don’t think it will be a landslide, but I think Romney can win decisively. A recent poll , and it took a D+11 poll for CNN to achieve a tie between Obama and Mitt, and Mitt was winning independents by 22 points. The candidate the wins independents wins. Plain and simple.

Polls show a tied race in the battleground, Pennsylvania in play, and plenty of evidence to suggest that the results of tomorrow’s election will largely be decided on the ground game and voter ethusiasm. Fred Barnes makes the case for this better than I can. Romney is attacting huge crowds, bigger than Obama, and taking all factors into the equation, makes me very confident Mitt Romney will win tomorrow.

Updated Electoral Prediction

Matt Margolis53 Comments

My updated map makes some assumptions based on my confidence on select states, based on polling and anecdotal evidence.

FL, NC, VA are good for Romney.

As is OH and CO. Based on what the 2012 battleground state slate is, these states get him to 275 electoral votes and the win.

In gray are swing states that I’m not ready to call but are all, in my view, bonus states to win. If Mitt wins by only one state, you can bet your life that the results will be contested. So, he needs to win MI, or PA, or either MN or WI plus IA or NH to give Obama no opportunity to contest the results.

And while I still think PA is a long shot, as I just reported, Bill Clinton is making an 11th hour push there, and as Obama’s best surrogate, that suggests Obama’s internal polling shows a race within the MOE.

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State of the Union

Cluster86 Comments

As we enter the final weekend before the most important election of our lifetime, the State of the Union is weak. Mediocrity, misery and economic malaise permeate every corner of our great country, with misery taking the forefront for those pour souls who were subject to Sandy’s wrath. As those in NJ, NY, PA, etc., scramble to simply find food, I have to think that they will be less than excited to rush to the polls on Tuesday to vote for a President that only found time to fly in for a photo op. As those in NY see the huge generators being set up, and the money coming in to conduct a marathon, I can’t think that they will be excited to walk to the polls on Tuesday to vote for four more years of misery and malaise. Today’s jobs report inched up unemployment to 7.9%, unemployment amongst blacks is 14.3%, job participation is just 63%, disability claims are at record levels, family incomes continue to decline, gas lines grow in the hurricane effected area with gas prices inching towards $6/gallon, and food stamp usage has more than doubled. This is the fundamental transformation Obama promised in 2009, and it is a promise of which that has only enriched him and his supporters. He has no plan going forward, and will continue to spend money that we don’t have, further plummeting this country to bankruptcy, and more families to despair.

The new progressive Democratic party has controlled Congress since 2007, and the White House since 2009, and they are responsible for the current State of the Union. A state of which must change on Tuesday.

Bishop Jenky’s Letter to His Parishoners

Mark Noonan23 Comments

Bishop Jenky of Peoria has ordered this letter read in all his parishes this weekend:

Dear Catholic Believers,

Since the foundation of the American Republic and the adoption of the Bill of Rights, I do not think there has ever been a time more threatening to our religious liberty than the present. Neither the president of the United States nor the current majority of the Federal Senate have been willing to even consider the Catholic community’s grave objections to those HHS mandates that would require all Catholic institutions, exempting only our church buildings, to fund abortion, sterilization, and artificial contraception. This assault upon our religious freedom is simply without precedent in the American political and legal system. Contrary to the guarantees embedded in the First Amendment, the HHS mandates attempt to now narrowly define and thereby drastically limit our traditional religious works. They grossly and intentionally intrude upon the deeply held moral convictions that have always guided our Catholic schools, hospitals, and other apostolic ministries.

Nearly two thousand years ago, after our Savior had been bound, beaten, scourged, mocked, and crowned with thorns, a pagan Roman Procurator displayed Jesus to a hostile crowd by sarcastically declaring: “Behold your King.” The mob roared back: “We have no king but Caesar.” Today, Catholic politicians, bureaucrats, and their electoral supporters who callously enable the destruction of innocent human life in the womb also thereby reject Jesus as their Lord. They are objectively guilty of grave sin. For those who hope for salvation, no political loyalty can ever take precedence over loyalty to the Lord Jesus Christ and to his Gospel of Life. God is not mocked, and as the Bible clearly teaches, after this passing instant of life on earth, God’s great mercy in time will give way to God’s perfect judgment in eternity.

I therefore call upon every practicing Catholic in this Diocese to vote. Be faithful to Christ and to your Catholic Faith. May God guide and protect His Holy Church, and may God bless America.

Most Reverend Daniel R. Jenky, CSC
Catholic Bishop of Peoria

 

Sandy: A Big Government Failure

Mark Noonan40 Comments

Manhattan is a rather low-lying island barely off the coast of the mainland of the United States.  A great deal of its travel is done by tunnel and subway – which is naturally on a lower level than the island, itself.  You’d think that someone would have looked in to the prospect of a storm surge causing flooding of the tunnels and subways and would have worked out a way to protect from flooding as well as a contingency plan for dealing with flooding.

So, what did I hear Mayor Bloomberg advise today?  That people might want to walk in to New York City because it might be quicker than any other means.

On the other hand, Bloomberg has diligently seen to it that sodas are properly regulated in the city of New York.

This is what Big Government ultimately is – micromanaging things which aren’t a government responsibility, at all, while the things governments are supposed to do wither away.

 

Liberal Honesty

Cluster48 Comments

One of our resident liberals has finally taken a firm ideological stand, after years of numerous requests to do so, and I want to thank James for having the courage to do just that.  This now opens up an honest dialogue on left vs right ideology and how it relates to the constitutional framework of this country. It also sheds light on the true intent of the new Democratic Party led by Barack Obama. That ideological position was articulated by James and is the following:

“I believe in big government. I believe that government should provide citizens with guaranteed healthcare, free education, and pensions. This would be paid for by higher marginal tax rates on everyone.

I don’t believe in the 10th amendment or the sovereignty of states. we should have ONE national drivers license, one national licence plate, one national criminal code. states should not have their own constitution or autonomy to decide on issues like abortion, gay marriage, or death penalty.

I believe that an education system controlled from the federal government and enacted by the federal government is better than having a rag tag of 50 states with 50 different levels of education and standards.

I believe that big government spending on social programs with our tax dollars is not only acceptable but morally required to take care of the needy in our nation. states should not even touch those issues.

I believe in a strong military and I don’t believe each state should have its own national guard. the national guards should be under control of the federal government.”

In my opinion, James is not alone in this ideological stance which I believe is shared by many current Democrats, but a position of which is completely antithetical to our Constitution. It is my belief that this is at the root of our current political divide, and why so many of us conservatives are attacked personally. The left DOES want to fundamentally transform America, as clearly stated by Barack Obama, and any effort to maintain the traditions of America, will be met with irrational hate instead of informed debate. This should make for an interesting debate, and I hope it does, but like too many other threads, let’s not allow it to devolve into name calling.

UPDATE:

This ideological divide is what is also at stake on November 6th. A vote for Obama, is a vote for the vision James outlined. A vote for Romney is a vote to restore traditional American constitutional principles. For the sake of this great country, and for those across the globe that depend on a strong and free America to stand behind them, and support them in their desire to be free, I pray Romney wins.