I’m not feeling all too positive about the Israeli-Gaza War; there seems to be a lack of willingness to press home an assault.
I do realize that it is a formidable thing; if Hamas does have 40,000 troops then the assault force will have to be in the range of 120,000. They’ll have to fight in a tightly packed area with plenty of opportunity for ambush and infiltration by the enemy. Hamas will be hiding behind women and children. In short, it would be bloody and perhaps the Israeli government is just unwilling to spend the blood? I can’t see an assault costing less than about 12,000 casualties; call it 4,000 dead and 8,000 wounded. That is a lot, especially given Israel’s small population.
That sort of shock to the Israeli body politic will be hard to absorb; can the Israeli government actually survive that kind of loss? Jews in general and Israelis in particular are very chary about spending blood. This probably stems from now-ancestral memory of the Holocaust. Israel’s Labor Party never fully recovered from the shock of the Yom Kippur War. It now holds just 4 seats in the Israeli Knesset after being dominant from 1948 to 1977. This will work into the calculation, sad as that is to say. And they’ll also worry that it won’t work; that Hamas dug in will be able to hang on and inflict sufficient casualties to get the Israelis to quit.
But I can’t see other than Israel has to do it. It will take some real steel in the veins to get it done, but it must be done. Hamas just proved it has no limits in its actions. If it survives, then it wins – recruits and money will flow in. Hamas is already developing advanced military capabilities. A little more time and it won’t be rockets fired into the blue but precision munitions with deep penetration capabilities hitting vital Israeli targets. They will, if they do expand, be able to attack on several fronts at once and other radical Islamist groups will want to get in on the action…raiding an Israeli village will become a requirement for any organization which wants to have credibility on the Arab street. In short, if Israel doesn’t go in it will be a catastrophic defeat. And a defeat which will place the long-term survival of Israel at risk. Iran will soon have a nuclear weapon…and against an Israel perceived as morally weak, they probably will use it. It might make surviving Israelis feel good to know that Tehran got nuked in the response, but Israel is tiny and just two or three hits to major population centers and the country is done for.
Pudding Brain is heading to Israel – almost certainly because his puppet masters want to pressure the Israelis to quit. It is a matter of conviction on the Left that the reason the Arabs hate Israel is because of the “occupation”. They simply will not admit that it is because of decades of propaganda that the Arabs hate Israel. That if the Arabs simply stopped, it would all be over almost instantly. But the Arabs can’t stop – not the leaders of the Islamist groups; their only claim to legitimacy is their promise to conquer Tel Aviv…if that goes away, they go away. So, they won’t stop. They have no reason to. And if they see Israel wimp out in the face of casualties, then they’ll know that victory beckons. But Biden’s people don’t see it that way – they’re sure if they get the Israelis to back off and can get aid into Gaza that they’ll eventually get Hamas to agree to Israel’s existence (after massive Israeli concessions, of course). I’m hoping that the Israelis just ignore him and rely on Congress to ensure that whatever aid is needed will still flow no matter how mad Biden’s people are.
The other thing bringing me down is the revelation of how many Americans are buying Hamas propaganda. Polling is good but we’ve clearly got at least 20-25% of the population so ignorant of history that they fault Israel for the war. They are out in the streets praising Hamas – that is praising people who just sent in death/rape squads. Don’t believe them when they deny the squads; they are out to cheer precisely that, but they’ve been coached to deny the reason for their joy because their masters know how bad that would look on TV.
For now.
This keeps up much longer and in a few years they’ll be quite open in their support for genocide. We’ve got a serious problem. It has moved me to reconsider just how we govern ourselves: we need to devise mechanisms to ensure that people who favor Nazi-like policies are not allowed a say. Not sure how we do it. The long term fix is to increasingly gain control of the education system and make sure drivel isn’t imparted…but meanwhile we’ve got a whole generation raised on drivel. How do we control them for th next fifty years?
Then next 72 hours or so will be decisive, I think. We’ll find out by then if Israel will move. God bless them and give them strength to endure.
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